Video Analysis

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee analyzed the latest inflation report, noting some progress but highlighting concerns about services inflation. He stated that "several more rate cuts" are possible in 2026 if inflation proves transitory and returns to the 2% target, while also touching on the impact of tariffs and the nomination of Kevin Warsh.

• Headline inflation drop partly due to a 'bad' report from 12 months ago falling out of the 12-month moving average.
• Services inflation remains untamed, and core inflation is around a 3.6% annual rate.
• 'Several more rate cuts' are possible in 2026 if inflation consistently returns to 2%.
• Tariffs have shown a clear relationship with higher goods inflation, but Goolsbee hopes this is transitory.

Equity futures are lower to start the week, influenced by geopolitical tensions, upcoming inflation data (PCE), and mixed recent economic reports. Scott Bauer suggests a 'buy the dip' strategy for metals and a 'sell the rip' approach for crude oil, highlighting overall market uncertainty.

• Equity futures are lower, with heightened volatility expected due to US-Iran talks, inflation data, and potential Supreme Court tariff decisions.
• PCE data is an immediate focus, following mixed CPI and jobs reports that have led to a retreat in the 10-year Treasury yield.
• Metals (gold, silver) are lower, presenting a 'buy the dip' opportunity on a trading basis.
• Crude oil is climbing, but a 'sell the rip' strategy is advised unless there's a significant geopolitical escalation.

The segment covers five key market headlines for February 17, 2026, including US-Iran nuclear talks, activist investor Starboard Value targeting Tripadvisor, Danaher's potential $10 billion acquisition of Masimo, Apple's upcoming product event, and Apple's new video podcasting push.

• The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a second round of nuclear talks today in Switzerland.
• Activist investor Starboard Value, now owning over 9% of Tripadvisor (TRIP), plans to nominate a majority slate for its board.
• Danaher (DHR) is reportedly nearing a $10 billion deal to acquire medical technology company Masimo (MASI).
• Apple (AAPL) announced a product event for early March, expected to unveil new MacBook and iPad models, and a cheaper iPhone 17.
• Apple is making a new video podcasting push, intensifying competition with Spotify, YouTube, and Netflix.

Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses Kevin Warsh's advocacy for a smaller Federal Reserve footprint in the US Treasury market, which implies quantitative tightening. She draws a parallel to Jerome Powell's initial resolute stance in 2018, noting he was forced to back down due to market turbulence, raising concerns about future central bankers' ability to maintain hawkish policies if tested by markets.

• Kevin Warsh advocates for a much smaller Federal Reserve footprint in the US Treasury market, supporting quantitative tightening.
• Jerome Powell was initially resolute in his tightening stance in 2018 but was forced to back down due to significant market turbulence.
• The speaker questions whether a 'next generation of younger-thinking maverick type of central bankers' can truly maintain a hawkish stance if markets test them.

State Street's 2026 'Six Grey Swans' report identifies low-probability but high-impact risks for global markets. Key concerns include AI failing to scale due to hardware, energy, and regulatory constraints, a potential sovereign bond shock, and oil prices rocketing towards $100. A positive outlier scenario involves China pivoting to consumption-driven growth.

• AI fails to scale: Geopolitical tensions, manufacturing disruptions, power grid limits, and regulatory backlash could hinder AI growth, impacting semiconductor makers, data centers, and AI platforms.
• Bond Shock: Rising fiscal debt and heavy bond supplies could lead to a 'buyer strike' in developed sovereign markets, with France identified as a potential trigger due to high deficits and low growth.
• Oil Towards $100: Geopolitical disruptions, rerouting of oil flows, a material shift in Indian/Chinese demand, or increased AI power consumption could drive oil prices higher.
• China Goes Shopping: A positive grey swan where Beijing implements demand-side stimulus, allows RMB appreciation, and fosters a unified national market, boosting domestic and regional economies.

The analyst suggests diversifying away from the concentrated US AI-driven tech rally, noting potential overvaluation and concentration risk in large-cap US tech. Europe is highlighted as an attractive alternative due to its stronger financials and industrials, and less direct exposure to AI, offering a positive global growth environment for broader equity returns.

• AI will remain dominant, but US IT and communication services stocks are facing concentration risk and potential overvaluation.
• Europe is presented as an attractive diversification option, with strong financials and industrials, and less direct exposure to AI, benefiting from increased EU spending.
• Despite potential US tech slowdown, a positive global growth environment and cyclical strength suggest global equities can still deliver significant returns.

T. Rowe Price is overweight non-US markets, citing better fundamentals and valuations in global small and mid-caps, European banks, and emerging markets like the Gulf region. They see opportunities in diversification and specific sectors like technology outside the US, encouraging investors to look beyond the US for growth.

• T. Rowe Price is overweight non-US markets, specifically favoring value, small, and mid-cap stocks outside the US.
• Fundamentals for small and mid-caps in Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets are considered better than their US counterparts.
• European banks are highlighted as an opportunity, trading at a valuation discount relative to US banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
• Opportunities exist in technology sectors outside the US, particularly in areas related to the 'picks and shovels' build-out of AI.
• The Middle East/Gulf region offers significant opportunities with strong GDP growth, stable inflation, and robust employment across capital markets.

Fox Business discusses the 'State of the Economy,' highlighting positive indicators like cooling inflation (January CPI at +0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoY) and promising job reports. President Trump's past economic claims and current administration's efforts to address inflation and promote growth are debated, with calls for further tax cuts and deregulation to boost prosperity.

• January inflation data showed consumer prices rising less than expected (+0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoY) and core CPI at a near five-year low.
• President Trump claims the economy is 'blooming' and the 'hottest country anywhere in the world,' attributing success to his policies.
• Guests discuss challenges for lower-income individuals due to debt and high credit card rates, and advocate for tax cuts and deregulation to address these issues.
• Critiques are made against Democratic policies, particularly regarding energy and regulations, which are seen as hindering economic growth and increasing costs.

A BlackRock survey reveals that 30% of registered voters have no retirement savings, and 63% have less than $150,000 saved. The discussion highlights strong bipartisan support for modernizing retirement investment options, with solutions proposed including auto-enrollment in 401k plans and the implementation of child savings accounts to foster early investment and compounding.

• 30% of registered voters have no retirement savings, and 63% have less than $150,000 saved for retirement.
• There is strong bipartisan support among voters for expanding and modernizing retirement investment options in America.
• Proposed solutions include auto-enrollment in 401k plans (where 40% of Americans currently lack access) and 'child savings accounts' to provide early access to capital markets and long-term compounding benefits.

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel discusses positive economic data, including cooling inflation and strong job growth, which he believes supports a rotation from big tech to value stocks. He highlights AI's disruptive potential, favoring value stocks that are beginning to leverage it, but expresses concern over cybersecurity threats. Siegel also anticipates further Fed rate cuts, aiming for a Fed funds rate in the low 3s.

• January inflation cooled to 2.4% (year-over-year), lower than estimates, driven by cheaper gas and used vehicles.
• January saw a surprise jump of 130K jobs added (vs 70K estimated), with unemployment at 4.3%, indicating a resilient economy.
• Professor Siegel believes the rotation from big tech to value stocks is real, driven by AI's rapid and uncertain impact on tech winners, benefiting smaller and value-oriented companies.
• Cybersecurity, especially in the age of AI, is a significant concern, posing a threat to financial systems.
• The futures market still shows a June rate cut in play, with Siegel advocating for the Fed funds rate to drop to the low 3s (two more cuts).

The video summarizes a volatile week for Bitcoin and precious metals, noting Bitcoin's continued decline and gold/silver's rebound. It also highlights a recovery in software stocks and previews next week's key events, including earnings from Walmart and Palo Alto Networks, along with FOMC minutes.

• Bitcoin posted its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with over half a trillion dollars wiped out across crypto markets this month.
• Precious metals (gold and silver) experienced sharp slides before rebounding to post weekly gains, reacting to inflation data and rate cut hopes.
• Software stocks, including Akamai, Datadog, Oracle, and Crowdstrike, showed recovery after earlier weakness, with analysts debating if the tech sell-off is over.
• Next week's focus includes earnings from Walmart (WMT) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW), FOMC minutes, and a shortened trading week due to a holiday.

The video discusses the US economic landscape, highlighting mixed signals from inflation and job growth, leading to repricing of Fed rate cut expectations. It also covers the impact of the AI race on debt markets, the trend of US companies issuing bonds in Europe, and the outlook for various credit sectors. Experts offer differing views on the economy's resilience and the Fed's monetary policy path.

• US economic data shows mixed signals with relatively contained inflation and stronger-than-expected job growth, leading traders to reprice rate cut expectations.
• Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran suggests tight monetary policy poses a risk to the economy, advocating for lower interest rates.
• The AI race is disrupting debt markets, with a significant increase in tech companies' share of private sector debt issuance, raising concerns about concentration risk in private credit.
• US companies are increasingly issuing bonds in European markets (reverse Yankee sales) to diversify funding and potentially achieve better pricing, with volumes surging past 2007 highs.
• Upcoming key economic data, particularly the PCE inflation report, will be crucial for investors to gauge the Fed's future policy decisions.

Eric Van Nostrand of Lazard Asset Management discusses January's CPI data, stating that the market is 'too sanguine' about inflation risks. He highlights that U.S. economic growth is highly concentrated among high-income consumers and AI infrastructure, making it fragile. He also points to continued risks from tariffs and global supply shocks.

• U.S. economic progress is about as concentrated as it's ever been, driven by high-income consumers and AI infrastructure investment, making growth fragile.
• Markets are 'far too sanguine' about inflation over the course of the year, with underlying trends suggesting potential re-acceleration.
• Continued risks of rising inflation are present from tariffs, broader global supply shocks, and aggressive immigration policy reducing labor supply.
• Retailers have mitigated tariffs but may face future 'one-time issues,' and inventory numbers require deeper analysis beyond just value.

The video discusses the January inflation report, which showed consumer prices rising less than expected (+0.2% month-over-month, +2.4% year-over-year). This data is seen as positive for the economy, potentially leading to more Federal Reserve rate cuts. The panel also highlights a steady labor market and declining energy prices, contributing to a generally optimistic economic outlook.

• January inflation (CPI) rose less than expected (+0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoY), the lowest annual core CPI increase since March 2021.
• Cooler inflation data and a steady labor market increase expectations for potential Fed rate cuts this year.
• Energy commodity prices (fuel oil, motor fuel, gasoline) and food items (eggs, beef, coffee) have seen significant declines.
• Coinbase (COIN) shares jumped over 17% despite a 4Q revenue miss, with Bitcoin (BTC) also showing gains.

The video discusses the current state of restaurant stocks, highlighting the importance of individual stock selection amid a tough market. Analyst Dan Ahrens favors casual dining and non-traditional food service companies like Brinker and Casey's, while avoiding some fast-food giants like McDonald's and Starbucks due to valuation and consumer value trends. An options trade on Yum! Brands is also presented.

• Individual stock selection is crucial in the current challenging restaurant market.
• Brinker (EAT) and Darden (DRI) are favored for their value offerings and diverse dining options.
• Non-traditional food service companies like Casey's (CASY) and Dutch Bros (BROS) are seen as having better upside.
• McDonald's (MCD) and Starbucks (SBUX) are being avoided due to price point and upside/downside concerns.
• A neutral to bullish covered call strategy is suggested for Yum! Brands (YUM) to collect yield and gain upside exposure.

The video identifies five critical energy trends for 2026, including a significant LNG supply expansion leading to potential global surpluses, OPEC+'s challenge in balancing oil supply amidst surging output from other nations, and China's policy shifts impacting global energy fundamentals. It also highlights the influence of the dollar on oil prices and the growing electricity demand driven by the AI boom, suggesting a complex and potentially volatile market landscape.

• The 'LNG Tsunami' in 2026 will see the largest supply expansion in history, potentially leading to a global surplus and increased Henry Hub volatility.
• The 'Oil Balancing Act' involves surging supply from Guyana, Canada, and Brazil, forcing OPEC+ to choose between lower output or lower oil prices.
• The 'China Swing' refers to how China's crude stockpiling and refined product export licenses can rapidly alter global energy fundamentals.
• The 'Dollar's' correlation with oil prices and potential central bank surprises are expected to bring significant moves for WTI in 2026.
• The 'AI Boom' is driving the highest electricity demand in 15 years, impacting US GDP and making the AI race a key factor for oil as well.

The discussion analyzes the January CPI report, noting a positive year-over-year core inflation at 2.5% but underlying short-term pressures. Speakers agree the Fed will likely remain on hold until summer, requiring more consistent data for rate cuts, despite bond market reactions to current data.

• January's year-over-year core CPI at 2.5% is the lowest of the cycle, but monthly core inflation shows recent upticks.
• The bond market reacted positively, with 10-year Treasury yields dropping to 4.06%, its lowest since early December.
• The Fed is expected to maintain its current interest rate policy until at least summer, awaiting further economic data before considering rate cuts.

The video discusses the January CPI data, which showed consumer prices rising less than expected both month-over-month (+0.2% vs. +0.3% est.) and year-over-year (+2.4% vs. +2.5% est.). This 'tame' inflation report, particularly with lower rent and energy costs, is seen as giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility, leading to a positive market reaction with futures turning green and Treasury yields falling.

• January Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M rose +0.2% vs. +0.3% estimated.
• January Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y rose +2.4% vs. +2.5% estimated.
• CPI ex-food & energy M/M and Y/Y came in at consensus (+0.3% M/M, +2.5% Y/Y).
• Key components like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) at +0.2% and energy prices (gasoline down 3.2%) contributed to the lower-than-expected overall CPI.
• Market futures (S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ 100) turned positive, and Treasury yields (10-year, 2-year) fell following the release, indicating a positive market response to the 'tame' inflation data.

Economists Mark Zandi and Jim Paulsen discuss current inflation data and the state of the economy. Paulsen argues that inflation is not a long-term issue and the economy is weaker than widely anticipated, suggesting the Fed will be forced to ease. Peter Navarro denies reports of plans to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs, emphasizing the administration's stance of 'no exemptions, no exclusions' for these 'sacred' materials.

• January Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year was +2.4% vs. +2.5% est., with month-over-month at +0.2% vs. +0.3% est. CPI ex-food & energy m/m was +0.3% vs. +0.3% est.
• Mark Zandi notes that inflation is still on the high side, especially for necessities, but is not accelerating. He believes that without tariffs and heavy-handed immigration policy, inflation would be closer to the Fed's 2% target.
• Jim Paulsen asserts that the economy is weaker than perceived, with inflation being a temporary, COVID-related supply distortion that is now benign and will weaken further. He anticipates the Fed will be compelled to ease monetary policy.
• Peter Navarro states there is 'no basis in fact' for reports of reducing steel and aluminum tariffs, reiterating the administration's 'no exemptions, no exclusions' rule for these materials, which he calls 'sacred'.

The January inflation report indicated headline CPI at 2.4% and core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, largely meeting or slightly exceeding expectations. The report detailed specific categories experiencing significant price increases and decreases, with some previously hot areas like parking and streaming showing signs of cooling.

• January CPI: Headline inflation at 2.4% YoY, Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, aligning with or slightly better than estimates.
• Key YoY price increases: personal care, food away from home, non-alcoholic beverages.
• Key YoY price decreases: gasoline, dairy products, and overall energy.
• Categories showing cooling trends from last year's spikes include parking charges, video & audio streaming, and live events.