Video Analysis

Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI's Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, argues that the hallmarks typically signaling the end of a bull market are not currently present. He points to a strong jobs report, stable US 10-year yields, and a lack of 'true investor FOMO' in stocks, suggesting continued upside ahead for the market driven by an 'AI disruption trade'.

• The typical ingredients for a bull market's end (recession, Fed hiking rates, long-end pressure, widespread investor FOMO in stocks) are not evident.
• Current economic data, such as a strong jobs report and 'sedate' US 10-year yields, do not support a recessionary outlook or aggressive Fed tightening.
• While value has outperformed and staples are 'screaming higher' due to FOMO, this FOMO is concentrated in areas like gold/silver, not broad equities, and financials are underperforming, indicating a nuanced market driven by AI disruption rather than a broad market top.

The discussion analyzes the January jobs report, presenting a mixed but ultimately stabilizing view of the labor market. While past hiring figures for the previous year were significantly revised downward, the latest January data showed stronger-than-expected job growth and an unexpected drop in unemployment, indicating the labor market is gaining its footing.

• The labor market appears to be stabilizing, with the January jobs report exceeding expectations for hiring and showing an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate.
• Benchmark revisions revealed that the pace of hiring last year was significantly weaker than initially reported, with an average of only 15,000 jobs added per month instead of 49,000.
• Despite recent high-profile job cut announcements causing anxiety, the current positive data suggests a more robust and recovering labor market.

Cameron Dawson, CIO of New Edge Wealth, views current market volatility as a 'positioning reset' rather than a 'true growth scare', citing contained high-yield spreads. However, she highlights concerns about a softening consumer discretionary-to-staples ratio and persistent selling pressure in the software sector, which could signal future economic shifts.

• Current market volatility is likely a 'positioning reset' due to high valuations and earnings expectations, not a 'growth scare' yet.
• Key metrics to monitor for a true growth scare include high-yield spreads (currently contained) and the equal-weight consumer discretionary vs. consumer staples ratio (showing signs of softening).
• The strong consumer spending in 2023 was fueled by a 'K-shaped economy' and the wealth effect from robust housing and stock markets, despite lagging jobs data.
• The software sector is experiencing 'software soreness' with continued selling pressure, indicating crowded positions and short-term trading opportunities rather than long-term conviction.

The discussion focuses on the Japanese Yen's recent strengthening post-election, the US dollar's muted reaction to strong payrolls data, and the broader market implications of AI and real estate concerns. Mark Cudmore expresses skepticism about the Yen's sustained strength and anticipates continued dollar weakness over the long term, while also foreseeing a potential equity shock.

• Mark Cudmore believes the recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen is unsustainable in the long term, presenting opportunities for re-implementing carry trades.
• The US dollar's muted reaction to strong payrolls data is attributed to a structural overexposure to the dollar and an ongoing multi-year downtrend.
• Concerns about AI's impact on jobs and real estate are acknowledged, with a prediction of a potential equity shock in the coming weeks, though AI's job displacement is expected to be slower than some timelines suggest.

The January U.S. jobs report showed stronger-than-expected payrolls and a dip in unemployment, but significant downward revisions to 2025 job creation muddy the picture. This has reduced near-term Fed rate cut expectations, though economists remain divided on the total number of cuts this year, while the CBO's raised deficit outlook adds fiscal concerns.

• January U.S. nonfarm payrolls beat expectations (+130K vs +55K estimate), with unemployment dipping to 4.3%.
• However, 2025 job creation was dramatically revised lower (from 584K to 181K), with a net loss of 1,000 jobs in the last six months of 2025.
• Fed rate cut expectations for the next meeting have significantly slumped, but some analysts still anticipate more cuts than currently priced in for the year.
• The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) raised its deficit outlook, projecting worsening figures through 2036.

Michael Kantrowitz advises investors to rotate from tech/growth stocks into value and cyclical sectors, including mid-cap, small-cap, and international markets. He highlights improving manufacturing and housing data, strong Q4 earnings, and views the upcoming midterms as bullish for these segments, suggesting a broader economic recovery beyond large-cap tech.

• Recommends rotating into value, cyclical, mid-cap, small-cap, and international stocks, moving away from the S&P 500 index.
• Cites improving manufacturing and housing data, with 70% of US regional and national services and manufacturing PMIs now in expansion.
• Notes strong S&P 500 Q4 earnings (up 13.3% from last year) and revenues (up 8.9% from last year), exceeding estimates.
• Believes midterm elections are bullish for the market and a potential new Fed chair (Warsh) is unlikely to halt the cyclical upturn.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran discusses the U.S. job growth and his view that inflation will come down 'dramatically' this year, partly due to deregulation boosting the economy's supply side. He argues that increased supply leads to lower prices, contrasting with traditional Fed models. Larry Kudlow critiques the Fed's past growth predictions and models.

• Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran anticipates inflation will decrease 'quite dramatically' this year.
• Miran attributes disinflationary pressures to quirks in shelter measurement and supply-side improvements from deregulation.
• He argues that increased economic supply through deregulation should lead to lower prices and potentially looser monetary policy, a perspective he believes is underrepresented in some Fed models.

Tom Lee discusses the current market's 'frazzled' state amidst confusing macro data, including a strong jobs report and upcoming CPI. He highlights AI's dual impact, both disruptive and productivity-enhancing, and notes gold's significant rise. Despite concerns about market expense, Lee believes accelerating earnings and a dovish Fed will lead to a higher re-rating for equities.

• Macro data (jobs, retail sales) is confusing investors, with Friday's CPI report being crucial for inflation clarity.
• The S&P 500 has experienced unprecedented volatility, moving from overbought to oversold and back in a week, reflecting market uncertainty.
• AI is seen as both disruptive (impacting tech/software) and a driver of productivity, leading to cost savings for clients.
• Gold has become a 'singular monolithic trade' and is now a larger market than the S&P 500 (excluding the Magnificent 7), prompting investors to question stocks as a store of value.
• Despite the market being 'expensive' (as per David Einhorn), accelerating earnings growth, an ISM above 50, and a perceived dovish Fed are supportive of higher equity multiples.

Jeffrey Small analyzes the resilient economy, strong jobs data, and the Federal Reserve's potential course of action. He highlights the massive AI CapEx by mega-cap tech companies as a significant long-term investment cycle, drawing parallels to Amazon's early days, despite current stretched valuations and profit-taking.

• Strong jobs data (130,000) reinforces economic resilience, potentially de-emphasizing the need for aggressive Fed rate cuts.
• The Fed should adopt a more visionary, consumer-focused approach, capable of lowering rates without causing an inflation calamity.
• Massive AI CapEx by tech giants signifies a long-term investment cycle, with benefits in profitability and efficiencies expected to accelerate revenues.
• Market sentiment is stretched, leading to profit-taking and a broadening market beyond the 'Magnificent Seven' as the economy performs well.
• Tesla is viewed as building infrastructure for a new ecosystem, encompassing electric grids, energy storage, autonomous mobility, and AI robotics.

The video highlights the growing influence of retail investors in financial markets, positioning them as 'smart money' driving future trends. The Defiance Retail Kings ETF (KNGS) is introduced as a vehicle to track these movements, focusing on innovative companies in sectors like AI, quantum computing, space, and next-gen infrastructure. Retail investors are showing high enthusiasm for tech and AI, often buying the dip.

• Retail investors are increasingly driving market leadership and are seen as identifying future trends, with their sentiment being a key market indicator.
• The Defiance Retail Kings ETF (KNGS) tracks companies with strong intellectual property and technological innovation across various sectors, including AI, quantum computing, space, and energy.
• Retail investors are actively 'buying the dip' in software and AI-related stocks, viewing recent pullbacks as opportunities for long-term growth.
• Key investment areas include AI infrastructure, nuclear energy, rare earths, and space technology, with specific mentions of companies like Nvidia, AMD, IonQ, and Lemonade.
• Millennials and Gen Z are significantly increasing their allocation to equities, demonstrating high levels of excitement and engagement with the market's future.

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital predicts the Federal Reserve will implement 'substantially more' than two interest rate cuts by the end of this year, contrary to current market expectations. He argues that strong economic data doesn't necessarily prevent cuts, and he is betting on this outcome through interest rate futures.

• David Einhorn anticipates the Fed will cut rates 'substantially more' than the two times currently priced in by traders for this year.
• He believes that even with a 'hot' economy, like the recent jobs report, the Fed can still justify cuts, potentially citing productivity.
• Einhorn is actively playing this view by betting on more cuts through interest rate futures, noting it 'very well could be' good for the equity market.

The Investment Committee debates the implications of a strong jobs report, noting current market dips but highlighting underlying strengths. They discuss market volatility, high valuations, and a potential shift from momentum to earnings-driven growth, advocating for a long-term perspective and a broadening market.

• A better-than-expected jobs report leads to higher yields and lower rate cut hopes, causing slight market dips.
• The S&P 500 has shown extreme volatility, moving from overbought to oversold and back in a week, indicating a 'frazzled' market.
• Panelists acknowledge high market valuations but emphasize strong aggregate earnings and a healthy transition towards an earnings-driven market.
• A 'broadening out' is observed, with momentum shifting towards quality, value, and small-cap stocks, supported by positive earnings in these areas.
• Long-term investors are advised to focus on valuation and extend their time horizon to navigate short-term market 'frazzle'.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett discusses a strong January jobs report, record labor force participation, and the positive impact of reduced government employment on fiscal responsibility. He advocates for Federal Reserve rate cuts, citing a 'positive supply shock' from AI leading to high growth and low inflation, and supports President Trump's optimistic growth outlook.

• January saw a strong jobs report with 130,000 jobs added.
• Labor force participation reached its highest level since 2001, indicating people are re-entering the workforce due to high wages and factory starts.
• Reduced federal government employment (lowest since 1966) contributes to fiscal responsibility and helps lower interest rates.
• Hassett believes a 'positive supply shock' from AI will lead to high growth and low inflation, providing ample room for the Fed to cut rates.
• President Trump's aspiration for 15% growth is noted, with Hassett suggesting 4-5% growth is achievable due to AI-driven productivity.

The video discusses the growing fear of AI disruption rattling brokerage and software stocks, with examples of companies experiencing significant declines. It highlights a viral post from an AI CEO claiming AI can perform technical work, leading to concerns about job displacement and a shift in market value towards AI-native companies.

• AI disruption fears are causing underperformance in brokerage and software stocks, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Soft ETF (IGV) down over 3%.
• A viral post by an AI startup CEO suggests AI can autonomously complete technical work, implying reduced need for human labor and traditional software.
• The launch of an AI tax planning tool by Autoturist led to billions being wiped off wealth management stocks like Charles Schwab (SCHW) and LPL Financial (LPLA).
• Software companies like Salesforce (CRM) and Workday (WDAY) are cutting jobs, while AI companies are driving significant market disruption with smaller workforces.

The discussion focuses on the US January jobs report and significant annual benchmark revisions. While January's nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, substantial downward revisions to past job growth, totaling over a million jobs, suggest a weaker underlying labor market. The Fed was aware of these revisions, and the speaker highlights ongoing tensions between labor demand and supply, despite the possibility of a soft landing.

• US annual benchmark revision subtracts 862,000 jobs, with a total downward revision of over a million jobs by December of last year.
• January nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 month-over-month, exceeding the estimated +65,000, and the unemployment rate ticked down.
• The Fed was aware of the benchmark revisions, and while recent numbers are positive, underlying dynamics suggest a 'very tough job market' with slowing wage growth and drifting unemployment.

The January 2026 jobs report revealed 130,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy, significantly exceeding the 65,000 expected, with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3%. While sectors like healthcare and social assistance saw gains, government and financial activities experienced losses. Analysts noted a 'low-hire, low-fire environment' and highlighted substantial downward revisions to 2025 job numbers, indicating a less robust labor market in the past, yet describing the current market as 'surprisingly resilient'.

• 130,000 jobs added in January 2026, exceeding economists' expectations of 65,000.
• U.S. unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% in January 2026.
• Significant downward revisions to 2025 job numbers were noted, suggesting the labor market was not as strong as initially reported in the previous year.

The January jobs report, while strong on the headline, presents underlying nuances and potential weaknesses, leading to a possible market fade. This data, coupled with less dovish Fed remarks, is pushing back rate cut expectations to potentially July. Meanwhile, crude oil is showing a bullish technical setup and is supported by geopolitical risks and EIA outlook, with a potential to reach $75.

• January jobs report exceeded expectations with 130K non-farm payrolls (vs. 66K est.) and a 4.3% unemployment rate (vs. 4.4% est.), alongside higher average hourly earnings.
• Underlying data, including seasonality and birth-death model adjustments, suggests potential weakness, leading to a cautious market reaction and a possible 'fade' in initial gains.
• Fed rate cut expectations are being delayed, with July now being priced for the first 25 basis point cut, impacting bond yields and the dollar.
• Crude oil is exhibiting a bullish technical setup, supported by geopolitical risks and the EIA's view that OPEC will not significantly raise production, potentially targeting $75.

The January jobs report significantly exceeded expectations, with 130,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. While past payrolls were revised downward, the strong current data suggests a resilient labor market, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline and leading to a broad cyclical rally in early trading.

• US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, well above the 65,000 estimate.
• The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%.
• Benchmark payrolls for April 2024 through March 2025 were revised down by 862,000 jobs.
• Job gains were concentrated in healthcare, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities saw losses.
• Equity futures rose, and Treasury yields increased following the stronger-than-expected report.

The January jobs report showed a stronger-than-expected addition of 130,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%. Private payrolls significantly exceeded estimates, while government jobs saw a decrease. Experts note a robust economy, but revisions to prior months and the impact of AI on job sectors are key areas of focus. The market reacted positively to the strong economic data, with stock futures rising and Treasury yields increasing.

• U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly above the 70,000 estimate.
• The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, lower than the 4.4% expectation.
• Private payrolls added 172,000 jobs, while government jobs decreased by 42,000.
• Average hourly earnings increased by 0.41%, higher than expected, and labor force participation was 62.5%.
• Market reaction: Dow futures up significantly, S&P and Nasdaq futures also higher, and Treasury yields jumped.

The January jobs report showed a robust labor market, with non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations at 130,000. Key metrics like average hourly earnings, unemployment rate, and labor force participation all indicated strength, leading to a positive market reaction in futures and rising Treasury yields.

• January non-farm payrolls rose by 130,000, more than double the 55,000 estimate, marking the 'juiciest' report since April last year.
• Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% est.) and 3.7% year-over-year (vs. 3.7% est.), while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% est.).
• The labor force participation rate moved up to 62.5%, and the U6 underemployment rate fell to 8.0% (vs. 8.4% last look), indicating broad improvements in the labor market.