General Market News

European banks are expected to report strong second-quarter earnings this week and next, driven by higher interest rates and gains in trading and investment banking. Goldman Sachs forecasts an 11% jump in pretax profit year-on-year for the sector. Major banks including UniCredit, Santander, BNP Paribas, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and BBVA will report results, though concerns remain about the Iran war's impact and whether U.S. banks continue to outperform their European counterparts.

• The EURO STOXX Banks Index has doubled in the past two years, reaching its highest level since the 2007-2008 financial crisis, powered by higher lending margins and contained credit losses.
• U.S. banks continue to outperform European peers in investment banking, with some Wall Street giants reporting revenue rises of more than 30% compared to just 2-7% forecast for some European banks like BNP Paribas and Societe Generale.
• UniCredit is moving closer to taking control of Germany's Commerzbank in one of Europe's biggest banking deals in decades, as the EU plans measures to aid cross-border banking consolidation and help European banks compete with U.S. rivals.

The U.S. has conducted 10 consecutive nights of military strikes against Iran following President Trump's declaration that the ceasefire is 'over,' causing major disruptions to global oil shipping. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from over 100 ships daily to just 30 over the weekend, while Brent crude surged above $90 per barrel. The situation threatens to worsen as Houthi militants have announced attacks on Saudi shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, potentially closing a critical relief valve for global oil markets.

• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20.3 million barrels of oil daily (25% of global seaborne oil trade), has dropped dramatically with only 30 ships transiting over the weekend versus 100+ daily before hostilities resumed
• Oil prices have surged with Brent crude breaking $90/barrel for the first time in over a month; analysts warn that continued disruption into August could force prices into triple digits due to depleted inventory buffers
• Qatar and Pakistan have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, but the Houthis' threat to attack Saudi shipping near Bab el-Mandeb could close the Red Sea export route that Saudi Arabia has used to divert millions of barrels daily around the Hormuz disruption

The Southwest Power Pool (SPP), a regional grid operator covering 14 central U.S. states from North Dakota to Louisiana, issued a level three energy alert on Monday evening warning of potential rolling blackouts. The alert was triggered by record electricity demand during a heat wave combined with unexpected power plant outages that left reserve margins extremely thin. The grid operator ultimately avoided ordering blackouts and downgraded the alert level after a couple of hours.

• SPP issued a level three energy alert around 6 p.m. EDT for its western territory, indicating the grid operator was using all available operating reserves to meet demand
• Multiple power plants unexpectedly went offline during the heat wave, creating razor-thin reserve margins across the 14-state region
• The alert level was reduced after approximately two hours, and no controlled blackouts were ultimately required despite the high risk

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that investors are underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks facing global markets, stating he would not buy stocks or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices. His cautious stance contrasts with the S&P 500's nearly 10% gain this year, as he cited wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, U.S.-China tensions, rising military spending, and mounting government deficits as underappreciated threats.

• Dimon believes the 10-year Treasury should be priced at 4% to 4.5% even if inflation falls to the Fed's 2% target, seeing little upside for Treasury prices and warning that persistent U.S. budget deficits will eventually drive interest rates higher.
• While acknowledging the economy's resilience due to lower energy dependence, Dimon cautioned that markets may not be pricing in what 'actually happens' and that a tipping point could still occur.
• On AI spending, Dimon compared the current boom to the early internet era, suggesting the total investment will 'probably' pay off but warned it won't deliver returns in the way or timeframe investors expect, citing failed early internet players like Yahoo and Netscape.

President Donald Trump signed three proclamations imposing additional 50% tariffs on various Canadian goods, citing alleged trade discrimination against U.S. products and industries. The tariffs are set to take effect 30 days after signing, further straining the trade relationship between the longtime allies.

• The tariffs target different sets of Canadian imports through three separate proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930
• Tariffs will take effect 30 days after signing, with officials stating 'Canada has to be held accountable for this continued discrimination'
• The move adds to tensions between the U.S. and Canada, whose relationship has deteriorated amid Trump's tariff-heavy agenda and dissatisfaction with the trilateral trade pact including Mexico

US stocks closed mixed Monday as the Dow fell 297 points (-0.57%) while the Nasdaq nearly held steady thanks to a semiconductor rebound. The session balanced geopolitical tensions from US-Iran conflict and elevated oil prices against anticipation of critical tech earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel this week.

• Semiconductor stocks rebounded after last week's selloff that pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index into bear market territory (down 20% from June highs); Micron, Astera Labs, and Teradyne all posted gains
• Analysts raised Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth expectations to 26% year-over-year from 23.7%, with major tech earnings this week expected to determine if chip weakness is temporary or signals broader sentiment shift
• Oil remained elevated with US crude at $83/barrel and Brent at $89 amid ongoing US strikes on Iran (ninth consecutive day) and Yemen's Houthi naval blockade on Saudi Arabia threatening energy supplies

Despite the S&P 500 rising 11.4% through July 10, 2026, stock valuations have actually decreased, with the index's forward P/E ratio down 7.7% year-to-date. This counterintuitive trend is driven by corporate earnings estimates rising even faster than stock prices, with second-quarter S&P 500 earnings expected to surge 23.3%.

• The Nasdaq-100's forward P/E declined 6.5% while the 'Mag 7' tech stocks saw valuations drop 15% despite higher prices
• Wall Street forecasts S&P 500 second-quarter earnings growth of 23.3%, with accelerating profits outpacing price gains
• Lower valuations may present opportunities to rotate assets from momentum sectors like semiconductors to less expensive market areas

President Trump signed an executive order on July 20 making it significantly harder for U.S. defense contractors to obtain waivers that allow purchases of critical minerals and materials from China and other prohibited foreign suppliers. The order requires contractors to prove they searched for alternatives and develop plans to shift away from foreign sources, as part of efforts to reduce overseas reliance in weapons production supply chains. Companies face potential contract loss if they fail to demonstrate sufficient domestic sourcing efforts.

• Defense contractors must now map entire supply chains from raw materials to finished products, identifying origins of minerals, components, and software used in designated weapons systems
• Waiver requirements are substantially tightened: companies can no longer justify foreign suppliers simply as the easiest or cheapest option and must provide detailed alternative search documentation
• The order affects major contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing as the Pentagon pushes for rapid weapons production expansion while many critical minerals for missiles and aircraft still rely on Chinese suppliers

Mars Wrigley will lay off 307 workers and relocate its U.S. headquarters from Newark, New Jersey, to Chicago by mid-October, ending its presence in Newark. The move follows a $100 million expansion of its Chicago facility, where Mars Inc.'s global headquarters is located. The departure adds to a troubling trend of major companies leaving New Jersey due to business climate concerns.

• Mars Wrigley will eliminate 307 jobs at its Newark headquarters while maintaining its manufacturing facility in Hackettstown, New Jersey
• New Jersey has lost over 10,000 jobs through WARN notices this year, with recent departures including Samsung moving to Texas and ExxonMobil's prior relocation
• The consolidation follows Mars Inc.'s $100 million Chicago expansion and its 2024 acquisition of Chicago-based Kellanova, maker of Pringles and Cheez-It

The FDA reversed a test result indicating Taylor Farms iceberg lettuce tested positive for the cyclospora parasite, calling it a false positive, but maintains its conclusion that the company's shredded iceberg lettuce from central Mexico is linked to an outbreak affecting over 1,600 people. The agency continues advising consumers to avoid recalled iceberg lettuce and has not changed its investigation focus on Taylor Farms despite the testing error.

• The false positive applies only to one specific shipment, not the broader outbreak; FDA's traceback investigation still points to Taylor Farms locations in central Mexico as the source
• Taco Bell foot traffic dropped roughly 19% on Friday compared to year-to-date averages, with other lettuce-serving chains also seeing declines as consumer uncertainty spreads
• Walmart proactively removed four Marketside bagged salad products supplied by Taylor Farms from stores across 27 states, though no illnesses have been linked to those specific products

The Nasdaq 100 rebounded on Monday as chip buyers returned following a sharp selloff that pushed semiconductors into bear market territory with a 20%+ decline from late-June highs. The recovery faces critical tests this week with earnings reports from Intel, Texas Instruments, Alphabet, and Tesla, which will determine whether the AI trade can sustain momentum amid concerns over overvaluation and geopolitical tensions.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.5% Monday but remains down over 20% from its record high, having entered bear market territory after Friday's low of 28,408.25 on the Nasdaq-100 futures
• S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 26% year-over-year this quarter according to LSEG data, yet markets sold off last week despite positive economic data, suggesting the AI trade had gotten ahead of fundamentals
• Yemen's Houthi naval blockade threat against Saudi Arabia adds geopolitical risk to energy supply lines, while the Nasdaq-100 futures show an 'inside move' signaling investor indecision with Friday's low becoming a key pivot point

Private investors are being urged to increase funding for European defence companies as public spending proves insufficient amid rising geopolitical tensions. However, investment momentum has slowed recently, with defence stocks underperforming broader markets and complex procurement processes creating barriers. Financial institutions are expanding their defence sector teams, with over 600 finance delegates attending the Farnborough aerospace event, up threefold from 2025.

• European defence stocks are up only 1.3% in 2026 compared to 8% gains for the broader STOXX 600 index, reflecting cooled investor sentiment and a 'reckoning' in valuations
• ING Bank has increased its defence funding team to about 50 bankers from 'very few' five years ago, while attendance of finance executives at Farnborough jumped threefold to over 600
• Investment bottlenecks persist in the supply chain due to complex procurement processes and lack of government clarity, despite recognition that private capital mobilization is essential

Stock markets are attempting to break recent losing streaks as Q2 earnings season accelerates, with major tech companies including Alphabet and Tesla set to report this week. Markets showed modest gains Monday morning after indexes fell between 0.77% and 1.4% on Friday, with the Dow seeking to end a three-week decline. Economic data remains light this week, with focus shifting to corporate earnings from major companies across multiple sectors.

• Domino's Pizza reported mixed Q2 results with earnings of $4.07 per share beating estimates, but same-store sales grew only 0.1%; supply chain revenues rose 6.5% and 209 new stores opened
• Key earnings reports include Alphabet (Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy) and Tesla on Wednesday, followed by General Motors, 3M, Lockheed Martin, Intel, and American Express throughout the week
• U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for June expected to tick down to 0.0% from 0.1% in May, though representing improvement from the -1.3% negative growth seen between May-November 2025

IndiGo, India's largest airline, signed a memorandum of understanding with CFM International to purchase over 1,000 LEAP-1A engines, marking a record deal for the engine maker. CFM, co-owned by GE Aerospace and France's Safran, is the world's largest engine maker by units sold but has faced industry criticism over maintenance delays.

• The deal involves over 1,000 LEAP-1A engines, representing a record order for CFM International
• CFM produces engines for Boeing 737 MAX and competes with Pratt & Whitney on Airbus A320neo aircraft
• The engine maker has recently faced industry criticism regarding maintenance delays despite being the global market leader

Money market yields have declined from over 5% to below 3.50%, making cash holdings increasingly unattractive, while Treasury bonds now offer real yields above 2% and the 2-year Treasury yields 4.21%. After strong equity gains in the first half of 2026, analysts recommend investors rebalance into bonds to reduce portfolio risk and enhance income generation. Over $8.2 trillion remains parked in money market funds as of Q1, presenting a significant opportunity for rotation into fixed income.

• Money market yields have fallen steadily from 5% peaks in 2023 to below 3.50% currently, while the 2-year Treasury offers 4.21% - a 0.83% premium that creates reinvestment risk for cash holders
• Real yields on bonds remain above 2%, well above the 23-year average of nearly 1%, with short-term Treasuries (1-5 years) yielding 4-4.30% and corporate bonds offering an additional 0.50%
• The S&P 500 returned over 10% in H1 2026, creating an opportunity for balanced investors to rebalance from equities into bonds, moving up the capital structure where interest payments take priority over dividends in economic downturns

South Africa's Aspen Pharmacare announced that its Canadian subsidiary received Health Canada regulatory approval for Aspen-Semaglutide, a generic injectable treatment for type 2 diabetes in adults. This marks a significant entry into the market dominated by Novo Nordisk's blockbuster Ozempic, which uses the same active ingredient, semaglutide.

• The approved generic contains semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk's Ozempic diabetes treatment and Wegovy weight-loss medicine
• Health Canada's approval allows Aspen's Canadian subsidiary to market the generic alternative for type 2 diabetes treatment in adults
• This represents potential competition for Novo Nordisk's blockbuster drug franchise in the Canadian market

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U.S. Treasury 30-year bond yields hit 5.06% at auction, the highest since 2007, as federal debt reaches $39.5 trillion with a $1.37 trillion fiscal year deficit. The article argues that rising government borrowing costs pose a greater long-term recession risk than Federal Reserve policy or oil prices, as persistent deficits crowd out private investment and increase debt servicing costs.

• The 30-year Treasury yield more than doubled from roughly 2% in early 2022 to 5.06%, significantly increasing the government's cost to refinance existing debt
• AI infrastructure investment by tech companies is competing with Treasury securities for capital, adding upward pressure on long-term interest rates beyond the structural debt problem
• Congress rejected most DOGE spending recommendations, leaving deficits expanding regardless of party control and making the $39.5 trillion debt load a structural rather than cyclical challenge

US stocks opened higher on Monday as semiconductor stocks rebounded from a sharp selloff, with the Dow rising 143 points (0.28%), the S&P 500 up 0.56%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.87%. The recovery follows a difficult week where the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index entered bear market territory, falling over 20% from its late-June high. Investors now focus on upcoming Big Tech earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, and IBM, with analysts expecting S&P 500 second-quarter earnings growth of 26% year-over-year.

• Memory chipmakers led the rebound with Western Digital and Seagate rising 4-6%, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 2.6% after falling nearly 9% the previous week.
• Markets are pricing in only a 12% probability of a Fed rate hike in July but a 53% chance of an increase in September, following encouraging inflation data released last week.
• Oil prices fluctuated as US-Iran tensions continued with nine consecutive days of strikes, though diplomatic hopes emerged; Brent crude briefly topped $90 per barrel before settling above $88.

US stock indices maintained their upward trends on July 20, 2026, with key technical support levels holding firm despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The NASDAQ 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 all showed resilience, defending critical support zones while continuing multi-month uptrends heading into earnings season.

• NASDAQ 100 held crucial support at 28,500, maintaining its uptrend with minimal market reaction to Middle East weekend headlines
• Dow Jones 30 defended the 52,000 support level with 53,000 as the next resistance target, continuing its uptrend pattern since late March
• S&P 500 bounced from its ascending triangle trend line near the 50-day EMA, with the 7,600 level as the next resistance target during earnings season