General Market News

Traders on Kalshi prediction market assign a 56% probability that May's jobs report, due Friday, will exceed the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 90,000 new jobs. The report comes ahead of the Federal Reserve's first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh on June 16-17, and could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates. Job creation has been slowing, with monthly payroll gains averaging just 55,000 over the past six months.

• Kalshi traders put 49% odds on over 100,000 jobs added and 40% chance of surpassing 110,000, up from 32% probability before April's report was released
• Expected 90,000 May jobs would represent a decline from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000, continuing a slowdown trend with six-month average of only 55,000 monthly gains
• Hourly earnings expected to rise 3.4% annually (down from 3.6%) and 0.3% month-over-month, with the jobs data potentially influencing the Fed's June policy decision under new leadership

The European Commission is considering keeping the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil unchanged at $44 per barrel during its July review, rather than adjusting it upward despite recent oil price increases. The move aims to maintain economic pressure on Moscow following windfall gains Russia has received from higher oil prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal is part of the EU's forthcoming 21st sanctions package against Russia for its war in Ukraine.

• Brent crude is trading around $93 per barrel, but the Commission may propose capping any future price review at a maximum of $60 per barrel regardless of market conditions
• Only 30% of seaborne Russian oil is still traded under the price cap mechanism, while the rest moves through a 'shadow fleet' outside Western shipping and insurance services
• The Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted one-fifth of global oil and gas flows, causing oil prices to spike and analysts to raise 2026 price forecasts by 40% to around $90 per barrel since February

Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that political interference in monetary policy could permanently destroy public trust in the central bank, stating the Fed is undergoing a 'stress test' under Trump. Powell's comments come as the Supreme Court weighs a decision on Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump attempted to fire in August 2024—the first such attempt in the Fed's 113-year history.

• Trump attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook in August 2024, citing alleged 'deceitful and potentially criminal conduct' related to mortgage transactions; a federal district judge blocked the firing in September, and the Supreme Court is expected to rule by late June
• Powell, who accepted the JFK Profile in Courage award for withstanding 'years of personal attacks and threats from the highest levels of government,' argued that Fed officials hold office with legal protections against removal to ensure decisions are based on economic analysis rather than political pressure
• The case is considered 'perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113-year history' according to Powell, with the outcome potentially setting precedent for future presidential attempts to influence monetary policy decisions

Canadian health company Apotex Health announced plans to raise up to C$1.2 billion ($868 million) through an initial public offering on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The IPO represents one of the first major offerings on the TSX this year and could help revive Canada's subdued IPO market after several years of limited activity. Apotex serves clients in about 70 countries and has recorded 8% revenue growth over the last four fiscal years.

• Apotex plans to offer between 41.7 million and 50 million shares, raising roughly C$850 million through new issuance
• The Toronto IPO market has seen only a handful of listings in recent years, with companies avoiding the subdued market, though renewed economic confidence and a rising TSX are spurring fresh interest
• Major underwriters include RBC Capital Markets, TD Securities, Scotiabank, BMO Capital Markets, and Jefferies as joint bookrunners

Wall Street enters June at record highs, with the S&P 500 completing its ninth consecutive weekly gain. The May jobs report on Friday, forecasting 93,000-105,000 new positions and 4.3% unemployment, will test the rally alongside major tech earnings from AI-beneficiary companies like Broadcom. Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices above $93 per barrel add geopolitical uncertainty to the market outlook.

• The Nasdaq surged 9% in May driven by AI enthusiasm, marking the S&P 500's longest winning streak since late 2023
• Key economic data includes ISM manufacturing/services surveys, JOLTS openings, and the Fed's Beige Book, with focus on inflation signals amid elevated energy costs
• Major tech earnings from Broadcom, Salesforce, and others will provide evidence on AI infrastructure spending strength; Quantinuum's $12.7B IPO and FedEx Freight spinoff are notable corporate events

US stock indices opened Monday's session with sluggish trading despite maintaining an overall positive outlook. The Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 all showed minor losses of 0.17-0.25% in early trading on June 1, 2026, with traders watching for potential buying opportunities on dips as shrinking US interest rates provide underlying support.

• Nasdaq 100 remains bullish with 30,000 serving as a major support level, benefiting from recent declining US interest rates
• Dow Jones 30 reached a fresh high before giving back gains, with 50,000 as the major floor and 51,500 as the upside target
• S&P 500 holds above the 7,500 short-term support level with analysts targeting 7,700, though expecting noise along the way

US stocks opened lower on Monday with the Dow falling 132 points (0.26%) as rising oil prices from Middle East tensions offset gains in technology stocks. Nvidia rose after unveiling a new AI processor for PCs developed through a three-year Microsoft partnership, while crude oil jumped approximately 4-5% on escalating Iran-US conflict. Investors await Friday's jobs report and Fed policy signals ahead of Chairman Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting.

• Nvidia and Microsoft gained 1.7% and 3.3% respectively on their AI PC chip partnership announcement, lifting Dell (+8%) and HP (+4%), while competitors Qualcomm (-5.8%), AMD (-4%), and Intel (-3%) declined
• WTI crude climbed ~5% to $91/barrel and Brent rose ~4% to $95 after Iran suspended US talks following Israeli attacks in Lebanon and exchange of strikes over the weekend
• Markets assign roughly 70% probability to a quarter-point Fed rate increase before year-end, with nonfarm payrolls data due Friday providing key labor market insight

U.S. stock futures pointed to gains on June 1, 2026, with major indices at record highs following a strong May rally. President Trump urged critics to 'relax' as U.S.-Iran negotiations continue amid heightened Middle East tensions that pushed oil prices higher. Market breadth has improved significantly, with smaller-cap stocks now outperforming the tech mega-caps that dominated previous years.

• The Dow gained 3.1% in May to reach 51,032, while the S&P 500 rose 4.8% to 7,580 and the Nasdaq climbed 7.4% to 26,973, with year-to-date gains of 6%, 11%, and 16% respectively
• WTI crude jumped 3.6% to $90.47 per barrel after U.S. strikes on Iranian sites and failed weekend negotiations, though Trump expressed optimism that 'Iran really wants to make a deal'
• Market breadth has broadened considerably with the Russell 2000 up 17.6% year-to-date and Dow Transports leading at 23%, while the 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks lag at just 7.7%, indicating healthier market participation

The S&P 500 reached a record close in May 2026, but only 20 stocks hit new highs, mirroring the market top of the dotcom bubble in March 2000 when the same number of stocks peaked. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warns this narrow breadth signals a potential bubble top, driven primarily by AI-related stocks, particularly semiconductor makers.

• Of the 20 stocks hitting records, only 7 were not directly AI-related; memory chip makers like Micron surged 85% and AMD rose 50% in May alone
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 25% in April-May 2026, its best two-month stretch in over 20 years, but only 55% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 200-day moving average
• Hartnett advises shifting to a defensive posture with long bonds and defensive sectors, citing that narrow market breadth is typically a sign of underlying vulnerability

U.S. stock market valuations have reached levels exceeding those seen before the 1929 crash that triggered the Great Depression. The Shiller CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 stood between 39 and 41 as of late May 2026, more than double its historical average of 17, driven largely by AI-linked mega-cap stocks despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

• The Shiller CAPE ratio of 39-41 is more than double the historical average of 17 and has only been surpassed during the 2000 dot-com bubble peak
• Composite valuation measures now exceed 1929 pre-crash levels but remain slightly below the 2000 technology bubble peak, leaving little room for error in a market concentrated in AI-related mega-cap stocks
• Key risks include persistent inflation, higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs, AI spending potentially falling short of expectations, and growing U.S. fiscal challenges that could pressure valuations

Private credit funds lent nearly $560 billion to U.S. businesses between 2023 and 2025, contributing to over 6.5 million jobs and generating approximately $897 billion in economic activity, according to a Managed Funds Association report. The surge reflects private credit firms filling the financing gap as traditional lenders retreated from riskier loans due to stricter regulations. Institutional investors have also increased hedge fund allocations to $1.6 trillion, with pensions leading at $940 billion.

• Private credit lending peaked at $238.7 billion in 2025, up from $163.6 billion in 2023, with California, Illinois, and Texas receiving the largest shares
• Institutional allocations to hedge funds grew from $1.43 trillion in 2023 to $1.56 trillion in 2025, driven by pensions, endowments, and non-profit foundations seeking long-term stable returns
• The MFA emphasized that regulators should foster frameworks supporting alternative asset managers' contributions to the economy as the industry rapidly expands

Crypto exchange Binance announced on June 1 that it has launched trading in U.S. stocks and ETFs for customers on its platform, marking an expansion beyond digital assets into traditional financial markets. Users will have access to over 7,000 U.S. stocks and ETFs, including fractional shares, as the platform seeks to offer a wider range of financial services.

• Binance now offers access to more than 7,000 U.S. stocks and ETFs on its app, alongside cryptocurrency tokens, with fractional share purchasing available
• The platform will provide 24/5 trading hours, allowing customers to trade U.S. stocks and ETFs around the clock on weekdays beyond traditional market sessions
• Binance joins competing platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood in offering both digital assets and traditional investments through a single platform

US stock futures rose on Monday, with Dow futures up 200 points, driven by AI announcements from Nvidia and Microsoft that offset concerns about rising oil prices and US-Iran tensions. Nvidia unveiled a new AI chip for laptops and desktops developed with Microsoft, expanding the AI trade beyond data centers. Investors await Friday's jobs report and Fed signals to gauge the path for interest rates.

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.3%, while Dow futures rose 208 points (0.4%) as Nvidia climbed 1.6% on its new AI laptop/desktop chip announcement; rival chipmakers AMD and Intel fell 3.4% and 2.9% respectively.
• Oil prices climbed on US-Iran tensions, raising inflation concerns that could complicate Fed policy; markets are pricing a roughly 70% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase by year-end.
• Broadcom's results on Wednesday will test whether the AI rally remains broad or concentrated, while Cadence Design Systems jumped 8.2% on an Nvidia-powered chip design tool and Micron rose 5.3% above $1,000 for the first time.

Saudi Aramco increased liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) official selling prices by 1-3% for June, while Algeria's Sonatrach cut prices by 18-31% due to higher Mediterranean supply. The divergent pricing moves reflect different regional supply dynamics, with Aramco's prices serving as benchmarks for Asia-Pacific and Sonatrach's for the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions.

• Saudi Aramco raised June OSPs to $760/ton for propane (+$10) and $820/ton for butane (+$20), representing increases of approximately 1-3%
• Sonatrach slashed prices to $575/ton for propane (-$125, down 18%) and $610/ton for butane (-$270, down 31%) citing higher Mediterranean supply
• The price divergence highlights regional market differences, with Saudi prices benchmarking Middle East-to-Asia contracts while Algerian prices guide Mediterranean and Black Sea markets including Turkey

U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday, led by AI-related gains from Nvidia and Microsoft, which overshadowed tensions from escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Nvidia climbed 1.6% in premarket trading after unveiling a new AI chip for PCs developed through a three-year partnership with Microsoft, while competing chipmakers AMD and Intel fell sharply.

• Futures gained modestly with Dow up 0.28%, S&P 500 up 0.23%, and Nasdaq up 0.29% as markets entered June at record highs despite Middle East tensions
• Nvidia's new AI chip for laptops and desktops, set for fall release, boosted the stock while AMD dropped 3.4% and Intel fell 2.9% on competitive concerns
• Traders price in nearly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate hike by year-end as investors await Friday's jobs report and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting amid rising inflation fears linked to the Iran war

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday following renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, dampening hopes for a ceasefire deal. The 10-year yield increased more than 1 basis point to 4.47%, while the 2-year note rose over 2 basis points to 4.04%, as geopolitical tensions drove investors away from safe-haven assets.

• Oil prices surged over 4% to $90.92 per barrel and Brent crude jumped 3.6% to $94.37 as conflict near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz shipping channel raised supply concerns
• The ISM manufacturing PMI for May is expected at 53, up from April's 52.7, with investors monitoring data for signs of rising costs in the U.S. economy
• Former Federal Reserve chair warned that Trump administration pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates risks undermining public faith in the Fed's independence

Financial markets have largely shrugged off the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026, now entering its fourth month. Despite initial volatility, the S&P 500 has surged roughly 8% above pre-war levels, while oil prices have stabilized in a $20 range after an initial spike. The resilience suggests investors are prioritizing growth opportunities over geopolitical risks, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and energy infrastructure damaged.

• Oil prices spiked above $115 initially but have since traded in a $20 range for months, despite the blocked Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure
• The S&P 500 recovered within a week of its 8% March decline, surpassed its January all-time high above 7,000, and has added roughly 8% since then
• The US dollar gained only 1.6% from pre-war levels, while gold and silver fell 18% and 25% respectively from March highs, showing mixed safe-haven behavior

Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that political pressure from the Trump administration on the central bank threatens public trust in its independence. Powell, whose term ended May 15, cited a DOJ probe into the Fed's headquarters renovation, White House pressure for his resignation, and attempts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook as examples of an institutional 'stress test.' He emphasized that allowing administrations to remove Fed officials over policy differences would permanently damage the central bank's credibility.

• Federal prosecutors launched a probe in January into the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, which Powell said stemmed from Trump's frustration over the Fed's refusal to cut interest rates as aggressively as the president wanted; the probe was dropped in April
• Powell warned that if any administration successfully removes Fed officials over policy disagreements, future administrations will follow suit, eroding public confidence that monetary policy decisions are made solely in Americans' best interests
• Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Powell's successor on May 22, though Powell continues serving as a Fed governor after stepping down as chair

The global smartphone market is projected to contract by 13.9% in 2026 to 1.08 billion units, marking its steepest annual decline on record, according to Counterpoint Research. The downturn is driven by a severe memory chip shortage as chipmakers prioritize AI-related chip production. Budget smartphone makers like Transsion, Xiaomi, and Honor face steep declines, while premium manufacturers Apple and Samsung are expected to outperform the broader market.

• Low-end smartphones priced below $150 are most affected, with some models likely to disappear as wholesale prices rose 14% in Q1 while shipments fell 3.1% year-over-year
• Budget-focused Transsion faces a projected 32% shipment drop, while Xiaomi and Honor are expected to decline 28% and 20% respectively
• Apple shipments are forecast to remain flat in 2026 then rise 5% in 2027, while Samsung is expected to post only a 4% decline, significantly outperforming the market average due to stable chip supply and stronger margins

German retail sales declined by 0.3% in April compared to the previous month, according to data released on June 1. The decrease was smaller than the 0.5% drop that analysts had predicted, suggesting consumer spending in Germany's retail sector showed more resilience than expected.

• Retail sales fell 0.3% month-over-month in April, beating analyst expectations of a 0.5% decline
• The better-than-expected performance suggests German consumer demand held up more strongly than anticipated
• Germany's federal statistics office was expected to publish additional detailed data on retail performance