General Market News

The U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, with Washington claiming operations will last only 'four to five weeks' and won't become a 'forever war.' However, experts warn the conflict could become prolonged if Iran's regime proves more resilient than expected, particularly since only one in four Americans support the action and the administration's objectives remain unclear.

• Initial strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but experts say the 'day after' will be complicated as Iran escalates across the region
• Trump faces domestic political risks as only 25% of Americans support the Iran strikes, with his MAGA base favoring domestic over foreign policy priorities
• U.S. objectives have shifted from destroying Iran's nuclear program to targeting ballistic missiles, with officials denying regime change goals despite the supreme leader's death

Wall Street executives are cautiously optimistic about the Iran conflict outcome, drawing parallels to the market's recovery after initial tariff fears in April. Financial leaders are holding positions and strategically buying rather than selling, betting on Trump's willingness to compromise and achieve a favorable resolution that could boost markets.

• The situation is viewed as 'binary' with risks including prolonged conflict, oil price spikes, and market crashes if American casualties mount, but optimism stems from Trump's past pivot away from harsh tariffs toward deals
• Financial executives believe Trump may settle for a weakened Iran with decimated military and nuclear capacity rather than full regime change, creating better conditions than the current 'rogue nation funder of terror'
• Potential benefits include increased Iranian energy output lowering prices, expansion of Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia for Middle East stability, and Iran's possible reintegration into the global economy with its 93 million educated citizens

Oil prices have spiked approximately 7% since U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, raising concerns about potential stock market impacts. Brent crude now trades around $71 per barrel, up $9 from a month prior, driven by fears that prolonged conflict could disrupt the one-fifth of global oil supply flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. While stocks initially dipped but recovered, analysts warn extended fighting could trigger significant market corrections.

• Goldman Sachs estimates Brent crude could spike to $110-$120 per barrel if the conflict extends beyond three weeks, which would likely send stocks into a drawdown or correction due to inflation and reduced consumer spending
• The S&P 500 opened down 1% on Monday following the strikes but recovered to close flat by day's end, suggesting markets are currently absorbing the impact
• Fitch Ratings identifies the most likely scenario as a short-lived conflict with regional spillover and partial Hormuz closure, rather than best-case (contained) or worst-case (prolonged with full closure) outcomes

Global companies and investors rushed to complete approximately $20 billion in equity deals over three trading days (Friday-Tuesday) as Middle East conflict erupted, with firms accelerating capital raises to secure funding before market conditions potentially deteriorate. The dealmaking pace was nearly triple the average daily rate from the prior two months, representing 16% of 2026's year-to-date equity transactions.

• Last week saw over $25 billion in equity transactions, the busiest week of 2026, with year-to-date proceeds up 60% compared to the same period in 2025
• Major deals included Zurich Insurance raising $5 billion, France's Engie raising $3.49 billion, and Rosebank raising $2.5 billion, with several aimed at financing planned acquisitions
• Advisers warn that sustained market volatility from U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran could slow future transactional activity, prompting firms to lock in deals while conditions remain favorable

The USD Index reached a new 2026 high of 99.68, approaching the key 100 level, while gold and silver reversed sharply after a brief war-driven spike following U.S. attacks on Iran. The precious metals declined as the USD rallied, with silver showing technical patterns similar to its 2011 post-top crash and potentially testing support below $50.

• The USD Index hit an intraday high of 99.68, breaking above medium-term resistance lines and returning above its long-term rising support line, with a break above 100 expected to trigger significant market moves
• Silver is following a pattern remarkably similar to its 2011 decline, having topped near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with technical support converging slightly below $50
• GDXJ (junior gold miners ETF) moved below its mid-February high after failing to hold above its January top, generating a strong sell signal that preceded the sharp decline in precious metals

The global platinum market is projected to remain in deficit for a fourth consecutive year in 2026 with a shortfall of 240,000 ounces, down from a record 1.082 million ounce deficit in 2025. Cumulative deficits since 2023 are approaching 3 million ounces, reducing above-ground stocks to unsustainably low levels equivalent to just over four months of global demand. The tight supply conditions are expected to support prices despite elevated volatility.

• The 2025 record deficit was driven by a 65% surge in investment demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and strong precious-metals sentiment, with significant inflows to ETFs, bars, coins, and exchange stocks
• Industrial demand is forecast to rebound 11% in 2026 to 2.124 million ounces, while automotive demand (the largest platinum consumption sector) will decline modestly by 3% as slower EV adoption and increased hybrid production continue supporting catalytic converter demand
• Global above-ground platinum stocks are projected to fall to around 2.6 million ounces by end-2026, representing just over four months of demand, with the World Platinum Investment Council warning this level is unsustainably low

U.S. markets face a busy week of critical economic data releases including CPI inflation readings and GDP revisions that will influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, while the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to impact market sentiment. A lighter earnings calendar features retail companies Dollar General and Kohl's among others reporting results. Key inflation and employment data scheduled throughout the week will provide insight into the economic outlook.

• Major inflation data releases include CPI on Wednesday, March 11 and PCE price indexes on Friday, March 13, which will help determine the Fed's interest rate path
• Notable earnings reports include retail chains Dollar General (DG) and Kohl's (KSS), plus Adobe (ADBE), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Lennar (LEN), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
• Additional economic data includes GDP revision, existing home sales, housing starts, jobless claims, trade deficit, and consumer sentiment throughout the week

President Donald Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, replacing current Chair Jerome Powell. The nomination has been transmitted to the Senate for confirmation, coming more than a month after Trump's initial public announcement of his intent to nominate Warsh. If confirmed, Warsh would serve a four-year term leading the central bank.

• Warsh previously served as a governor of the Federal Reserve and would replace Jerome Powell as chair
• The nomination requires Senate confirmation before Warsh can assume the four-year term
• Trump's formal Senate transmittal occurred over a month after his initial public announcement of the nomination

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expressed surprise at the stock market's relatively mild reaction to the escalating Iran conflict, despite Iran's shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping lane handling one-fifth of global petroleum. Solomon warned that markets may take weeks to fully digest the implications and cautioned that cumulative effects could eventually trigger a harsher reaction.

• The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global liquid petroleum passes daily, has been shut down by Iran amid the five-day conflict
• US markets declined modestly on Tuesday with the Dow down 0.83%, S&P 500 off 0.94%, and Nasdaq losing 1.02%, while oil prices rose with Brent crude up 2.7% to $83.58 per barrel
• Solomon noted investors are demanding higher risk premiums for volatile assets and warned that prolonged conflict affecting energy supply chains could impact consumer sentiment and economic growth

ETF Trends' Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Monica Chandra discussed a recent Citrini Research report that unsettled markets, focusing on AI's potential economic impact. The video addresses investor reactions to the report, lessons from past technological disruptions, and portfolio positioning strategies in the AI era.

• A Citrini Research report triggered significant market concern about AI's economic implications
• The discussion draws parallels between AI disruption and historical technological breakthroughs to provide context
• Experts provide guidance on how investors should adjust portfolio positioning given AI's uncertain impact

Stock markets face heightened volatility in early March 2025 due to surging oil prices following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, critical AI chip earnings from Broadcom and Marvell, and key economic data releases. WTI and Brent crude jumped 7% overnight, raising inflation concerns, while semiconductor earnings and NVIDIA's GTC conference will test investor appetite for AI stocks. Friday brings a rare double-header of February jobs data and January retail sales figures that could influence Federal Reserve policy.

• Oil prices surged 7% following weekend military strikes on Iran, with WTI above $70 and Brent near $80 per barrel, creating inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty
• Broadcom reports Wednesday with options pricing in an 8.3% move, followed by Marvell Thursday and NVIDIA's GTC conference March 16-19, all critical tests for the AI trade momentum
• Friday's simultaneous release of February payrolls and January retail sales will provide Fed rate cut clues, coming after Q4 GDP disappointed and with cyclical stocks under pressure

FXEmpire analyst examines key indicators of returning risk appetite across markets on March 4, 2026, focusing on US 10-year Treasury yields at 4.075% and multiple currency pairs. The analysis suggests resistance at 4.11% in yields could determine dollar strength and broader market risk sentiment. The Russell 2000 index holding support at 2600 is viewed as a positive signal for broader US equity markets.

• USD/CHF approaching critical resistance between 0.78-0.79, with a break above 0.79 potentially signaling a major long-term buying opportunity driven by interest rate differentials
• USD/MXN testing crucial support at 17.5 level, with a break below potentially driving the peso to 16.5, while holding could reverse the recent downtrend from oversold conditions
• Russell 2000 holding support near 2600 aligns with other major US indices, suggesting broader market stability with the analyst favoring buying opportunities in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 if the index rallies

U.S. equity markets showed broadening gains in January 2026, with small caps, value stocks, and international equities outperforming while large-cap growth lagged. The S&P 500 reached 7000 for the first time, but equal-weighted indices performed better. The Federal Reserve paused rate cuts as expected and Kevin Warsh was nominated as new Fed Chair, with only two rate cuts anticipated for 2026.

• Small caps gained over 5% and value stocks outperformed growth for the third consecutive month, while large-cap growth and Nasdaq returned less than 1%, marking a significant shift from recent years of tech dominance
• International stocks continued their 2025 momentum with emerging markets showing the strongest gains in January, aided by U.S. dollar weakness
• The Fed held rates steady after three consecutive cuts to close 2025, with the market pricing in only two rate cuts for 2026 (likely starting in June under new Chair Kevin Warsh) as inflation remains contained and the economy shows solid growth with S&P 500 earnings expected to grow 17%

US stock futures showed uncertainty on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, with markets fluctuating between small gains and losses as investors weighed ongoing Middle East tensions and surging oil prices. The previous session saw the Nasdaq fall 1%, the Dow drop 0.8%, and the S&P decline 0.9%, though all three indexes recovered from deeper intraday lows. President Trump's proposal for naval escorts and risk insurance for tankers in the Persian Gulf failed to calm market nerves.

• Iran's drone and missile threats have effectively blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices higher and raising inflation concerns
• The VIX volatility index rose 9% on the day after spiking nearly 25% earlier, signaling continued investor anxiety over geopolitical risks
• Key economic data releases include ISM services PMI and ADP private payrolls report, ahead of Friday's official non-farm payrolls

Private sector employers added 63,000 jobs in February, exceeding expectations of 50,000, according to ADP's latest report. However, January's figures were revised downward to just 11,000 jobs from the initially reported 22,000. The data reveals hiring concentrated in select sectors with job-switchers seeing a record low pay premium.

• February job gains of 63,000 beat economists' forecasts of 50,000, but January figures were revised down significantly to only 11,000 from 22,000
• Hiring remains concentrated in only a few sectors, limiting broad-based wage growth across the economy
• Pay premium for workers switching employers hit a record low in February, while job-stayers continue to see solid pay gains

Private sector companies added 63,000 jobs in February, exceeding the 48,000 consensus estimate, though January's figure was sharply revised down to just 11,000 additions, according to ADP. Job growth remained narrowly concentrated in only two sectors: health services and construction, while most other industries saw flat or negative growth. The report highlights ongoing labor market weakness despite modest improvement from January's dismal showing.

• Health services and construction accounted for nearly all job gains, adding 58,000 and 19,000 positions respectively, while professional/business services lost 30,000 jobs and manufacturing declined by 5,000
• The wage gap between job switchers and job stayers narrowed to its lowest level since ADP began tracking: pay grew 4.5% for workers staying in jobs versus 6.3% for switchers, down from prior months
• Small businesses (under 50 employees) drove hiring with 60,000 additions, while large companies (500+ workers) added only 10,000 and medium-sized firms cut 7,000 positions

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that President Trump's newly imposed 15% global tariff will take effect this week, following a Supreme Court decision that invalidated Trump's previous 'reciprocal' tariffs. The administration pivoted to different legal authority to maintain trade duties, with Bessent predicting tariff rates will return to previous levels within five months.

• The Supreme Court struck down Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs, forcing the White House to use alternative legal authority for the new 15% global levy
• Bessent stated his 'strong belief' that tariff rates will revert to their old levels within five months
• Trump initially signed an executive order for a lower rate after the Court ruling, then raised it to 15% the following day with immediate effect

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) registered 89.0 in January 2026, historically low levels, while the S&P 500 traded near 52-week highs. Analysis of historical data suggests this divergence between low consumer confidence and high stock prices may be a contrarian bullish signal, particularly for consumer discretionary stocks (XLY ETF), which have averaged 14% six-month returns in similar past scenarios.

• The January CCI reading of 89.0 was at least 6% below its 12-month average while the SPX traded above 90% of its 52-week range, a pattern that has occurred only 14 times since 1967
• Historical SPX returns following this signal averaged 6.06% over six months (92% positive) compared to typical 4.66% gains, and 7.82% over one year (83% positive)
• The Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) showed even stronger performance, averaging nearly 14% six-month returns in the four previous instances since 1999, with the last three signals producing gains of 18% to 32%

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that President Trump's 15% global tariff will be implemented this week. He predicted that U.S. tariff rates will return to their pre-Supreme Court levels within five months, following the court's decision to strike down Trump's 'reciprocal' duties.

• The 15% global tariff will take effect sometime during the current week
• Bessent expects tariff rates to revert to their previous levels within five months after the Supreme Court invalidated Trump's broader 'reciprocal' tariff program
• The announcement comes as the administration adjusts its trade policy following the Supreme Court's legal setback on tariffs

Large institutional investors have been net sellers of single-family rental homes since 2022, well before President Trump's January executive order aimed at restricting their purchases. In markets like Atlanta, investors are now selling nearly two properties for every one they buy, with data showing they account for a disproportionate share of new listings relative to their ownership stake.

• In Dallas, investors own 9.2% of housing stock but represent 22.8% of new for-sale listings; FirstKey Homes is cutting prices an average of 10% off original list prices every 20 days
• Invitation Homes, a major publicly traded landlord, sold 1,356 wholly owned homes in 2025 while acquiring 2,410 properties, with almost all purchases being new construction from homebuilders rather than existing homes
• Investors are pivoting to the build-to-rent market for better risk-adjusted returns, as rents are not holding up relative to sale prices amid elevated home prices and borrowing costs since 2020