General Market News

Baby Boomer investors are gravitating toward the 2026 Small Dogs of the Dow strategy, betting on additional Federal Reserve rate cuts following three cuts in 2025. The five highest-yielding Dow stocks—Verizon (6.82%), Chevron (4.58%), Merck (3.02%), Procter & Gamble, and Amgen (2.83%)—offer a defensive play amid an expensive S&P 500 trading at 31 times trailing earnings and anticipated midterm election volatility.

• The Small Dogs strategy has historically outperformed the broader Dow since 2000, particularly excelling in tough markets like 2008 and 2022 by providing stability and high dividend income
• Investors expect two more Fed rate cuts in 2026, following leadership changes at the Federal Reserve, which historically benefits high-yield value stocks over growth stocks
• The five Small Dogs span defensive sectors—telecom (Verizon at 9.1x earnings), energy (Chevron with AA credit rating), healthcare (Merck down 30% year-over-year), consumer staples (P&G with 185-year dividend history), and biotech (Amgen in biosimilars)

Tech executives and founders enriched by soaring stock prices are increasingly using exchange funds to diversify concentrated holdings without triggering immediate capital gains taxes. These funds allow wealthy investors to swap single-stock positions for a diversified portfolio by pooling assets with other investors, though they require seven-year lock-up periods to maintain tax benefits.

• Exchange funds pool concentrated stock positions from multiple investors into diversified portfolios that mirror benchmark indexes, with 80% in stocks and 20% in non-securities like real estate as required by the IRS
• Only accredited investors worth over $1 million qualify, and early redemption before seven years eliminates tax benefits and may trigger steep fees, with investors receiving back only their original concentrated stock
• Advisors recommend no single stock exceed 10% of a portfolio, and some strategists increasingly view exchange funds as wealth transfer tools, though getting clients to hedge remains difficult as they expect past outperformance to continue

US employers added 256,000 jobs in December 2024, marking the weakest year of job growth since the pandemic. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from November's 4.2%, though October and November figures were revised downward by 76,000 jobs. The data comes as the Federal Reserve weighs future interest rate decisions amid political pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates.

• Economists characterize the labor market as in a 'no hire, no fire' phase with subdued but continuing job growth, while December layoffs were nearly half November's level
• Federal Reserve officials signal likely pause in rate cuts at their January meeting, with rates currently at 3.5-3.75%, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging continued cuts
• Inflation cooled to 2.7% in November from 3% in September, while Fed officials suggest Trump's immigration and tariff policies have destabilized the labor market and inflation outlook

The U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in December 2025, missing economist expectations of 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from November's 4.6%. Revisions showed October and November employment figures were 76,000 jobs lower than previously reported, indicating weaker labor market conditions than initially thought.

• December job gains of 50,000 came in below the 60,000 forecasted by economists, continuing a trend of modest employment growth
• Unemployment rate declined to 4.4% from November's 4.6%, which had been the highest level since September 2021
• Downward revisions totaling 76,000 jobs for October and November signal persistent weakness, with October revised to show a loss of 173,000 positions

US employers added 50,000 jobs in December 2025, missing expectations of 73,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.4% from November's 4.6%. The weak hiring data and downward revisions of 76,000 jobs for prior months reveal underlying strain in the labor market, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cautioning that figures may be distorted following a record government shutdown.

• December's 50,000 jobs added fell below the 55,000 monthly average for the first 11 months of 2025 and missed Dow Jones estimates of 73,000
• October and November payroll figures were revised downward by a combined 76,000 jobs, indicating a weaker labor market than initially reported
• The unemployment rate of 4.6% in November was the highest since 2021, and Fed officials warn data may remain distorted for another month or two following the government shutdown

U.S. job growth slowed significantly in December with only 50,000 jobs added, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate improved to 4.4% from a revised 4.5% in November. The weak hiring reflects business caution over import tariffs and AI investment shifts, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month.

• December's 50,000 jobs added followed a downwardly revised 56,000 in November, with the labor market remaining in a 'no hire, no fire' mode
• The BLS estimates about 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March 2025 than previously reported, with a benchmark revision coming next month
• Economists increasingly view labor market challenges as structural rather than cyclical due to tariffs and AI factors, making Fed rate cuts less effective for stimulating job growth

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 50,000 in December 2025, missing expectations of 73,000 and significantly below typical levels, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%. The weak job creation, combined with downward revisions to prior months including a 173,000 October loss, presents a mixed labor market picture as the Federal Reserve weighs future interest rate decisions.

• Full-year 2025 payroll gains averaged just 49,000 per month, down sharply from 168,000 monthly average in 2024
• October's job losses were revised to 173,000, much worse than the originally reported 105,000 decline
• Despite soft job growth, the broader economy showed strength with Q4 GDP tracking at 5.4% and holiday online spending rising 6.8% to a record $257.8 billion

Stock futures edged higher Friday as investors awaited the December jobs report, expected to show 73,000 jobs added, and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump administration tariffs. Major indexes were on track for weekly gains despite ongoing market uncertainty around trade policy and economic data. Key corporate news included Glencore and Rio Tinto resuming merger talks and General Motors announcing $6 billion in charges related to pivoting away from electric vehicles.

• December jobs report expected to show 73,000 jobs added with unemployment falling to 4.5%, as the labor market has weakened significantly to just 17,000 jobs per month average between May and November
• Supreme Court could rule on Trump tariff case with outcomes ranging from complete strike-down to allowing tariffs to remain, while companies like Costco have filed lawsuits demanding refunds on tariffs already paid
• General Motors announced $6 billion in fourth-quarter impairment charges as it shifts away from EVs, following Ford's similar pivot with $19.5 billion in charges through 2027

CNBC's Morning Squawk highlights key market-moving events including the December jobs report expected to show 73,000 nonfarm payroll additions and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policy legality. The newsletter also covers Trump's Venezuela military stance, Saks Global's struggle to secure $1 billion in bankruptcy financing, and GM's announcement of $7.1 billion in charges for Q4 2025.

• December jobs data expected to show 73,000 nonfarm payroll growth with unemployment rate falling to 4.5%, while announced layoffs hit a monthly low according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas
• Supreme Court may rule on Trump tariff legality, though the administration has indicated it would impose duties through alternative means if the current policy is struck down; U.S. trade deficit fell 39% month-over-month in October to its lowest level
• Saks Global struggling to secure $1 billion debtor-in-possession loan needed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, raising liquidation concerns for the 159-year-old luxury retailer that owns Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman

US stock futures were flat on Friday as markets awaited December's nonfarm payrolls report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs. The jobs data is considered especially important after disruptions delayed previous reports, with a softer labour market potentially supporting the case for interest rate cuts. A Supreme Court decision on whether Trump exceeded legal authority in imposing national emergency tariffs could significantly reshape US trade policy.

• December nonfarm payrolls expected to show modest job growth and slight unemployment decline, with data more critical than usual due to prior reporting disruptions in October and November
• Supreme Court may rule on legality of Trump's broad tariff implementation under national emergency laws, with potential implications for US trade policy and global markets
• Trump directed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities aimed at easing housing costs, though full plan details remain unclear

US stock futures showed mixed signals on Friday as investors awaited December's jobs report and a Supreme Court ruling on Trump administration tariffs. The Nasdaq futures rose 0.2% while the Dow remained flat, following Thursday's session where defense stocks surged on proposed spending increases but tech giants pulled the Nasdaq down 0.4%.

• December non-farm payrolls report expected to show 50,000 job gains with unemployment dipping to 4.5%, though Deutsche Bank warns the data may be 'more random than normal' due to five years of revisions being processed simultaneously
• A Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariff policies could boost markets if struck down, but may also hit government revenue and potentially increase Treasury yields with broader financial market implications
• Defense stocks drove the Dow 0.6% higher Thursday on proposed spending increases, while tech losses in Nvidia, Apple and Meta dragged the Nasdaq lower

The US Supreme Court may rule as soon as Friday on the legality of President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The case questions whether the administration had authority to impose the duties and whether importers are entitled to refunds estimated at up to $150 billion. Markets are closely watching, with prediction markets giving only 28% odds the court fully upholds the tariffs.

• Wells Fargo estimates striking down tariffs would lift S&P 500 earnings before interest and taxes by about 2.4% in 2026, potentially triggering a market rally especially for consumer-facing companies and retailers.
• A ruling requiring refunds could total $150 billion and force increased Treasury issuance, potentially pushing bond yields higher and adding fiscal concerns for government revenues.
• Despite fears, economic impact has been muted so far with limited inflation effects, while the US trade deficit fell to its lowest level since 2009, reflecting weaker imports rather than stronger exports.

U.S. stock funds posted their third consecutive year of double-digit gains in 2025, with the average diversified equity fund rising 12.8%, though trailing the S&P 500's 17.9% return. Portfolio diversification proved profitable as international stocks surged 26.8% and gold-related funds soared 85.5%. AI-driven mega-cap stocks, particularly the Magnificent Seven, continued to dominate returns, accounting for 42% of the S&P 500's total return despite comprising only 34.9% of its market value.

• Large-cap growth and value funds both gained over 16% in 2025, but only 29% of actively managed large-cap funds outperformed the S&P 500 - the lowest percentage since 2019
• International and commodity funds significantly outperformed domestic equities, with world stock funds up 26.8% and precious metals funds soaring 85.5% thanks to gold's best year since 1979
• Wall Street strategists project S&P 500 year-end 2026 targets ranging from 7,000 to 8,100, potentially marking a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains matching the longest streak since 1995-1999

Markets remained relatively calm during the first week of the year despite major geopolitical developments, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and Trump's renewed interest in Greenland. The S&P 500 ended essentially flat, though energy and defense stocks saw movement as investors assessed the implications of U.S. involvement in Venezuela, home to the world's largest oil reserves of approximately 300 billion barrels.

• Crude prices tumbled with Brent closing below $60 per barrel on Wednesday due to expectations of increased oil supply; Venezuela has agreed to export up to $2 billion worth of oil to the U.S., largely displacing Chinese imports
• U.S. Gulf Coast refineries built to process heavy-grade crude are initial winners from the Venezuela developments, though reviving the country's oil industry could take years and billions of dollars in investment
• December non-farm payrolls data due Friday and a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's global tariffs are expected to be the biggest market movers, as investors await clarity on the labor market and trade policy

Financial markets face a critical test on Friday, January 9, 2026, with the release of December's jobs report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump's tariffs. Despite recent calm in U.S. equities, Treasury bonds, and the dollar, elevated stock valuations and options pricing suggest traders are bracing for significant volatility, with S&P 500 options implying a roughly 0.9% move in either direction.

• December jobs report expected to show 73,000 new jobs (up from November's 64,000) with unemployment forecast to ease from 4.6% to 4.5%; stronger data could reduce Fed rate cut expectations while weaker numbers may trigger growth concerns.
• Supreme Court designated Friday as an opinion day for tariff ruling, with prediction markets assigning only 24% chance of upholding Trump's tariffs; a strike-down could weaken the U.S. dollar and steepen the Treasury yield curve.
• The CBOE Volatility Index has risen to 15.5 despite firm equities, signaling an unusual divergence that suggests investors expect renewed volatility ahead, with strategists describing the current market calm as 'a little too quiet.'

China's consumer inflation rose 0.8% year-over-year in December 2024, reaching its fastest pace since February 2023 and meeting economist expectations. Factory-gate deflation extended beyond three years, dropping 1.9%, while core inflation remained at 1.2%, signaling persistent weak underlying demand despite efforts to stimulate the economy.

• Monthly consumer prices grew 0.2%, exceeding the expected 0.1% gain, while producer prices have remained in deflation for over three years
• Economists forecast China's real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in Q4 2024 from 4.8% in Q3, with annual consumer inflation expected to remain flat in 2025
• Industrial firm profits dropped 13.1% year-over-year in November, the steepest decline in over a year, as price wars and oversupply continue to hurt business profitability despite government intervention efforts

The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing cases challenging the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with major corporations like Walmart, Ford, and EssilorLuxottica seeking refunds. The tariffs include fentanyl-linked duties on China, Mexico, and Canada, broad 'reciprocal' tariffs aimed at reducing trade deficits, and punitive levies for political reasons. If ruled illegal, the administration may have to refund billions in tariff payments to importers.

• China and Hong Kong face 10% tariffs on consumer electronics, machinery, and medical devices, affecting major retailers like Walmart, Costco, Amazon, and Target
• India faces the steepest tariffs at 50% on key exports including pharmaceuticals, refined fuels, and specialty chemicals, impacting companies like Sun Pharma and Cipla
• Mexico and Canada are subject to 25% tariffs on non-USMCA compliant goods including autos and industrial components, while USMCA-compliant products remain tariff-free

The Supreme Court may soon rule on the legality of President Trump's tariffs imposed under emergency powers, with a decision possible as soon as Friday. The ruling could significantly impact markets and individual stocks, though experts warn that multiple possible outcomes and the administration's ability to reimpose tariffs through alternative means complicate trading strategies. Trump's tariffs have amounted to an average tax increase of $1,100 per U.S. household in the prior year, estimated at $1,400 this year.

• If IEEPA tariffs are struck down, importers of hard goods like Dick's Sporting Goods, Mattel, and Hasbro could see the steepest reduction in tariff expenses, while retailers like Walmart, Target, and Costco would see more muted reductions from the current estimated 20% incremental tariff burden.
• The court could issue a range of decisions beyond a simple yes or no, including narrowing tariff scope to specific countries, imposing time limits, or granting a grace period for the administration to change legal authorities underpinning the tariffs.
• Even with a full rollback, the Trump administration has alternative legal powers to reimpose or replace current tariff levels, making timing the largest unknown variable and suggesting total trade policy clarity may not arrive quickly.

Singapore Exchange and Nasdaq announced a fast-track dual-listing initiative launching mid-2026 that allows companies to use a single prospectus for simultaneous listing on both exchanges. While the program has attracted interest from Southeast Asian tech companies, bankers warn that a high S$2 billion ($1.55 billion) market value threshold and Singapore's thin liquidity may limit adoption. The initiative is part of Singapore's broader effort to compete with Hong Kong as a regional IPO hub.

• Only 8-10 Southeast Asian tech firms currently meet the S$2 billion valuation threshold, significantly higher than Hong Kong's HK$3 billion ($385 million) secondary listing requirement
• Singapore's daily trading volume of $1.39 billion lags far behind Hong Kong's $29 billion, raising concerns about liquidity despite new measures including a nearly $4 billion fund for small- and mid-cap equities
• Singapore raised $2.15 billion in IPOs in 2025 (highest since 2017) but still trails Hong Kong's $37.2 billion, with companies like Carro, Carsome, and Hummingbird Bioscience expressing interest in the dual-listing program

U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte endorsed President Trump's plan to ban institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, arguing corporations have been pricing everyday Americans out of homeownership. Pulte praised Trump as 'builder-in-chief' and claimed the policy aims to revive the housing market after damage during the Biden administration.

• Pulte claims corporations buy homes at 20-30% discounts compared to average Americans, making homeownership unaffordable for many citizens
• Trump urged Congress to codify the anti-Wall Street housing policy through social media, stating 'People live in homes, not corporations'
• The director contrasted Trump's action with Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren who discussed but failed to act on blocking corporate home purchases