General Market News

Singapore's inflation remained at 1.8% in May, below the 2% expected by economists and unchanged from April, as underlying price pressures stayed subdued. Core inflation came in at 1.4%, also lower than the 1.6% forecast. The data follows the Monetary Authority of Singapore's April policy tightening, its first since 2022.

• Private transport, accommodation, retail and food costs were the largest inflation contributors, offset by declining telecommunication service prices
• MAS raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.5%-2.5% from 1%-2% previously, citing risks from Middle East conflicts
• Singapore's economy showed resilience with Q1 GDP expanding 6% year-over-year, exceeding the 5.1% forecast

Brent and WTI crude oil prices declined sharply following resumed U.S.-Iran peace talks, with WTI falling to $74.30 and Brent to $78.80 as markets reduced the war premium. However, continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic and tight U.S. supply conditions are keeping oil prices volatile and may provide support at key technical levels.

• WTI crude broke below $80 and is testing long-term support at $66-$74, while Brent broke its $80 support level and faces next support at $72-$74
• U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since June 1983, indicating tight supply conditions that could limit further downside
• Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below normal levels despite some resumption, keeping geopolitical risk premium partially intact and prices vulnerable to Middle East developments

China's 618 shopping festival sales grew only 4% year-over-year in June 2026, a sharp deceleration from the previous year's pace, reflecting persistent weakness in consumer spending. The slowdown contrasts with strength in exports and technology sectors, prompting Goldman Sachs to lower its Q2 GDP forecast to 4.5%. Retail sales declined in May for the first time since pandemic restrictions ended in 2022.

• Total online sales during the May 13-June 18 shopping event reached 934 billion yuan ($137.86 billion), with e-commerce platforms showing only 0.9% sales growth
• Goldman Sachs cut Q2 real GDP growth forecast to 4.5% from 4.7%, citing widening divergence between high-tech/AI sectors and property/consumption segments
• Demand shifted toward lower-cost goods, with secondhand electronics sales up nearly 80% and growth in services like home cleaning, while AI-driven job displacement could further dampen consumer spending and housing demand

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller opened the Fed's conference on June 22, 2026, focusing on how stablecoins and tokenized assets are reshaping the U.S. dollar's global role. While the dollar's dominance still rests on traditional foundations like economic strength and institutional trust, distributed ledger technology is creating new channels for dollar intermediation that operate alongside traditional banking systems.

• The private sector is rapidly expanding access to dollar-denominated assets and innovating financial services using technologies that weren't viable with legacy systems
• Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warned earlier in June that AI technologies have amplified digital vulnerabilities across critical financial infrastructure, including banking systems
• The conference aims to examine how financial innovation may reinforce the dollar's international reach while altering how dollars move across borders and through markets

President Trump hedged when asked if he could guarantee Iran won't use oil sale profits to rebuild its military following a recent U.S.-Iran agreement. Trump stated Iran is 'supposed to' use unfrozen funds to buy American agricultural products like corn and soybeans, though Iran's central bank governor disputed any obligation to purchase exclusively from the U.S.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent authorized Iranian oil imports into the U.S. through at least August following productive peace talks in Switzerland
• The U.S. Navy ended its blockade of Iranian ports last Thursday, which had significantly reduced Iranian oil exports since April
• Iran's central bank governor told state media there is 'no obligation' to buy agricultural inputs from the U.S., contradicting Trump's claims that purchases would be made 'exclusively' from American farmers

Three solar panel manufacturers operating in the U.S. have petitioned the Department of Commerce to investigate solar cell imports from South Korea, alleging that producers like Hanwha's Qcells are using Korean imports to circumvent existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar products. The petition, filed June 18 by Canadian Solar, SEG, and Heliene, seeks a formal trade investigation into these alleged tariff evasion practices.

• Canadian Solar, SEG, and Heliene filed the complaint with the Commerce Department on June 18, all three operate solar panel factories in the United States
• The petition specifically targets South Korean cell imports, claiming they are being used to evade longstanding U.S. tariffs originally designed to restrict Chinese solar products
• Hanwha's Qcells is named among the Korean producers allegedly involved in the tariff circumvention scheme

The Dow Jones rose 147 points (0.3%) on Monday while the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and Nasdaq dropped 1.3%, driven by technology sector weakness as major stocks like Alphabet (-5%), Amazon (-4%), and Meta (-2%) declined. Markets are focused on upcoming PCE inflation data Thursday and potential Fed rate hikes, while oil prices fell on progress in US-Iran negotiations.

• Big tech dragged indexes lower: Alphabet fell 5% on AI talent departure concerns, while Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft declined 2-4%; SpaceX dropped 14% after announcing its first debt offering
• Oil prices fell sharply (Brent -3.31% to $77.90, WTI -2.32% to $74.82) after US-Iran officials agreed on a 60-day roadmap for a final deal and the US authorized Iranian oil sales
• Markets now pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, with focus shifting to Thursday's PCE inflation data that could influence the central bank's hawkish policy path

Oil prices fell on June 22, 2026, as U.S.-Iran negotiations showed significant progress, with Vice President JD Vance calling talks 'very good' and the U.S. waiving sanctions on Iranian oil exports and lifting naval blockades. Natural gas prices rose due to hotter weather forecasts expected to increase cooling demand. The developments signal potential easing of Middle East tensions and increased global oil supply.

• WTI crude tested $74.00 support and Brent crude tested $78.00 as oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz at the fastest pace since the Middle East conflict began
• U.S. Treasury waived sanctions for Iranian oil and lifted the naval blockade of Iranian ports, allowing Iran to boost exports to support its devastated economy
• Natural gas moved higher toward resistance at $3.20-$3.25 as traders anticipated increased cooling demand from hotter-than-expected weather forecasts

Three AI-related stocks face high-volatility earnings events this week, with traders positioning for significant price movements. An unnamed AI chipmaker reports Tuesday with 11.5% implied move, Micron reports Wednesday with 10% expected swing (highest implied move since December 2024), and Super Micro Computer sees bullish call buying after announcing new data center plans. These reports will test investor sentiment in the semiconductor sector that has driven the broader bull market.

• Micron's implied volatility sits at 116, highest in the S&P 500, with options traders pricing in a 10% post-earnings move and $3.3 billion in options traded Monday including a $61 million deep in-the-money call purchase
• Super Micro Computer stock jumped 16% on new data center blueprint announcement using unspecified architecture, with heavily bullish options flow showing 320,000 calls traded versus only 64,000 puts
• The AI chipmaker reporting Tuesday is down nearly 30% from its first-day trading price following last month's IPO, with options implying an 11.5% post-earnings move

Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok argues that oil's 22% plunge from $120 to below $80 over two months has rapidly undermined the Fed's hawkish dot plot released just 24 hours before his comments. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's refusal to provide forward guidance was immediately validated as the commodity move shifted the inflation outlook within a day of the FOMC meeting. The dramatic reversal highlights how rate path expectations are now shifting in 48-hour cycles rather than quarters.

• WTI crude fell from $114.58 per barrel on April 7, 2026 to near $73, with national gas prices dropping below $4 from a $4.50 peak in May, creating immediate disinflationary pressure
• Nine of 18 Fed dots signaled rate hikes in 2026, but futures markets quickly moved expected hike timing from January to September as oil prices collapsed
• JPMorgan had priced 80 basis points of cuts for 2026, an assumption now considered fragile as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.49% from a May high of 4.67%

Following Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire after SpaceX's June 2026 public debut, prediction market traders on Kalshi give Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg the best odds of becoming the second trillionaire, though still below 50%. Zuckerberg would need to quadruple his current net worth of nearly $200 billion by 2033 to achieve this milestone.

• Kalshi traders give Zuckerberg a 32% chance of becoming the second trillionaire, followed by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at 21% and Dell CEO Michael Dell at 6%
• The prediction contracts expire in 2033, and Forbes net worth estimates are used to determine contract outcomes, with currently low trading volume of just over $7,500
• An Oxfam report from January 2025 estimated there would be multiple trillionaires within a decade, suggesting more may join the club despite low prediction market odds

Alan Greenspan, who served as Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve for nearly two decades, has died at age 100. His long tenure shaped American monetary policy through multiple economic cycles and presidential administrations. His passing marks the end of an era for one of the most influential central bankers in modern history.

• Greenspan led the Federal Reserve as Chairman, overseeing monetary policy during critical periods of U.S. economic history
• His tenure spanned nearly 20 years across multiple presidential administrations, making him one of the longest-serving Fed chairs
• He was a highly influential figure in shaping economic policy and financial markets throughout the late 20th and early 21st centuries

Risk assets have failed to rally despite an interim US-Iran deal and falling oil prices, as the Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot last week pushed up real yields and counteracted geopolitical relief. The S&P 500 remains below its early June record high, with stretched valuations and widening credit spreads dampening investor enthusiasm. Deutsche Bank attributes the muted response to competing forces including elevated valuations, already-priced expectations, and unresolved supply constraints.

• US 10-year real yields hit 2.22% following the Fed decision, the highest in over a year, while Germany's real yield reached a five-month high of 0.89%
• The S&P 500's 16% rally over April-May represents a historically powerful move not seen since WWII except in post-recession periods or before the 1987 Black Monday crash, with CAPE valuations now at their highest since the 2000 dot-com bubble
• Despite the Iran deal, Brent crude remains roughly 30% above January levels and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (which carried 20-25% of global oil pre-conflict) remains a fraction of pre-crisis volumes

US stocks opened mixed on Monday as progress in US-Iran talks eased oil prices, while investors awaited Thursday's PCE inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate decisions. The Dow rose 204 points while chip stocks led gains ahead of Micron's earnings report due Wednesday.

• Oil prices reversed early gains, with Brent crude falling 1.6% to $79.30 and WTI down 0.8% to $76 after US-Iran negotiators agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal
• Markets have priced in potential Fed rate increases as early as September or October following last week's hawkish Fed meeting, with the two-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.230%
• Chip stocks including Micron, Sandisk, and Intel rose ahead of key inflation data, with Micron's Wednesday earnings expected to test the broader technology rally

Cheniere Energy (LNG) has gained 17% year-to-date, underperforming peers Venture Global (61.6%) and NextDecade (40%), as investors weigh its mature LNG platform against faster-growth competitors. The company operates 53 MTPA of liquefaction capacity with over 95% contracted for the next decade, providing stable cash flows. Analysts suggest holding rather than buying or selling, given strong fundamentals offset by heavy capital spending and volatile earnings estimates.

• First-quarter results showed revenues of $5.9 billion, consolidated adjusted EBITDA up 25% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, and a record 187 LNG cargoes exported
• Earnings estimates show extreme volatility: 2026 EPS expected to decrease 158%, but 2027 EPS projected to surge 353%
• Over 95% of LNG capacity is contracted for the next decade with 35+ long-term counterparties, providing revenue visibility and protection from spot-price swings

US stock futures rose after the Juneteenth holiday weekend, led by the Nasdaq up 0.4%, following reports of 'major progress' in US-Iran talks. However, investor optimism remains tempered by a hawkish Federal Reserve, with markets pricing an 89% chance of at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026 and no expected rate cuts.

• Oil prices retreated to $75.75 (WTI crude) after initially jumping on Iran-Strait of Hormuz concerns, still well above sub-$60 levels seen at the start of the year
• BofA Global Research forecasts a further 75 basis points of US rate hikes in 2026 under new Fed chief Kevin Warsh, pushing real Treasury yields to their highest level in over a year
• Key events ahead include Micron earnings on Wednesday, Fed annual bank stress tests, and the latest core PCE inflation reading, with markets cautious after the S&P 500's 16% surge in April-May

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has shifted from strong momentum to neutral after hitting overhead resistance near 7,530 (10% above 2025's close) and 7,615 (20% above March lows), with profit-taking emerging at these psychologically significant levels. Equity options sentiment has shifted sharply from extreme optimism in early June to neutral, as the put-to-call ratio jumped nearly 50% in recent weeks. Despite this sentiment shift, the SPX has weathered the headwind without major technical deterioration, suggesting bullish potential remains.

• The SPX peaked around 7,615 in early June before pulling back, with key support identified at 7,320 (the 50-day moving average); the 10-day put/call ratio surged from 0.375 to 0.56, indicating a rapid cooling of trader optimism
• Bullish factors include $8-9 trillion in money market funds that could flow into equities, elevated short interest that may fuel covering rallies, and the market's ability to tolerate higher rates as long as economic strength persists
• Oil price declines following a U.S.-Iran deal and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance (tripling odds of two rate hikes to 33%) have created mixed conditions, though the SPX has shown resilience during rising 10-year yields

US equity indices showed resilience on June 22, 2026, with the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 all finding technical support at key levels despite ongoing Middle East tensions and interest rate concerns. The indices are exhibiting grinding upward momentum, with analysts maintaining a bullish longer-term outlook and identifying no interest in short positions across the major benchmarks.

• Nasdaq 100 found support at 30,000 and is testing resistance at 30,750, with the market showing consistent buying interest on pullbacks despite being slightly overextended.
• Dow Jones 30 is grinding toward 52,000 resistance with support holding, targeting 53,000 if it breaks through the current barrier.
• S&P 500 stabilized around the 7,500 level with 7,600 as the next target upside and 7,400 providing short-term support, with analysts maintaining exclusively bullish positions.

Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chair, died Monday at age 100 from complications of Parkinson's Disease at his home. His wife, NBC News correspondent Andrea Mitchell, announced his passing and described him as a 'giant of a man' who shaped the U.S. economy for decades under presidents of both parties.

• Greenspan served as Federal Reserve chair and influenced U.S. economic policy across multiple presidential administrations from both parties
• He died at home from Parkinson's Disease complications, as confirmed by his wife Andrea Mitchell in a statement
• Mitchell praised his professional legacy while noting he was 'honest in acknowledging his mistakes' and had varied interests including baseball, tennis, golf, and jazz music

Alan Greenspan, who served as Federal Reserve Chairman for 19 years from 1987 to 2006 under four presidents, died at age 100 from complications of Parkinson's Disease. Known for his deliberately obscure communication style called 'Fedspeak,' Greenspan guided the Fed through multiple financial crises but faced criticism for low interest-rate policies that critics say contributed to the housing bubble and Great Recession.

• Greenspan's famous 'irrational exuberance' comment in December 1996 initially shocked global markets, with Tokyo dropping 3%, though the dot-com bubble didn't burst until 2001
• His tenure began just 69 days before the 1987 Black Monday crash, when the Dow fell 22.6% in one session, the biggest one-day sell-off in history
• Critics blamed his 'Greenspan put' easy money policies for setting the stage for the housing bubble, though he defended low rates as worth the risk to promote broader homeownership