General Market News

US equity issuance is expected to reach record levels in 2026, with IPOs potentially hitting $200-350 billion and secondary offerings another $400 billion, according to UBS. However, when scaled against the $72 trillion US equity market, issuance remains in line with historical averages and poses no significant threat. Corporate buybacks are expected to exceed new issuance, creating net positive capital for investors.

• Combined issuance represents a historically normal percentage of market capitalization, well below peaks from the 1990s and financial crisis periods
• Corporate buyback activity is projected to surpass total equity issuance through the end of 2026, resulting in net stock retirement
• Historical analysis of the five largest US IPOs since 1990 (including Visa, Meta, and GM) shows no discernible impact on broader S&P 500 performance

US stocks opened sharply higher on Thursday, with the Dow rising 349 points (0.68%) and Nasdaq climbing 1.18%, driven by semiconductor strength and optimism around a US-Iran temporary peace agreement. The rally follows Wednesday's selloff triggered by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh, though falling oil prices and Middle East diplomacy eased inflation concerns.

• Intel surged 10% after Trump announced Apple would work with Intel on US chip design and manufacturing, lifting the semiconductor sector with Nvidia up 1.2% and Micron and Marvell gaining over 5%
• Market expectations for a September Fed rate hike jumped to 50% from 27% after officials signaled a more hawkish stance, with 9 of 18 policymakers projecting rate increases in 2026
• Oil prices fell to three-month lows as the US and Iran extended their ceasefire by 60 days, reducing inflation pressures and supporting risk sentiment despite monetary policy uncertainty

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in May 2026, beating the 0.6% consensus forecast and marking the strongest growth in three months. While a 7% spike in gasoline prices inflated the headline number, core retail sales still gained 0.7%, signaling genuine consumer demand across categories. However, the personal savings rate has collapsed to 3.7% from 6.2% two years ago, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending.

• Core retail sales (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services) rose 0.7%, the highest since March, indicating broad-based consumer demand beyond fuel purchases
• Gasoline prices surged 7% in May, significantly boosting nominal retail sales figures at gas stations and inflating the headline number
• The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% in Q1 2026, the lowest in eight quarters, as consumers spend $314.3 billion more than disposable income growth of $305.4 billion by drawing down savings

U.S. gasoline prices fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since March 30, averaging $3.99 on Thursday. The decline follows a deal signed by the President regarding Iran, which is expected to increase oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices have dropped for 28 consecutive days after peaking at $4.56 on May 21, marking the longest decline streak since November 2023.

• Prices remain 30% higher than before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, after which Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz by attacking commercial ships
• The Hormuz closure triggered the biggest oil supply disruption in history, affecting about 20% of global oil supplies that previously passed through the strait
• The U.S. Navy has been assisting oil tankers through Hormuz since early May, though it remains unclear when traffic will return to prewar levels

US stock futures rebounded Thursday after a sharp sell-off triggered by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance on interest rates. An interim ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran eased Middle East tensions, pushing energy prices down to early March levels. The dollar hit a year high as markets now price in a likely Fed rate hike by October.

• Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.3% following Wednesday's 1.3% decline to 26,021, driven by relief over the Iran ceasefire deal which pushed WTI crude down over 2% to $75.15 per barrel
• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone shifted market expectations, with analysts now pricing high probability of rate increases by October; the DXY dollar index climbed 0.55% to 100.74, its highest level in over a year
• Swiss National Bank and Bank of England kept rates unchanged, reassured by reduced inflationary pressures from the Iran deal, while global markets showed mixed reactions with European and Asian equities divided

Central banks across G10 developed economies are entering a rate-hiking cycle in mid-2026, driven by inflation concerns following a U.S.-Iran war that caused energy price spikes. The Federal Reserve signaled imminent rate hikes under new Chair Kevin Warsh, while the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1% (a 31-year high), and several other central banks either hiked or indicated future increases despite recent declines in oil prices following a peace agreement.

• Australia leads G10 rates at 4.35% after three hikes this year, while Japan raised rates to 1% and Switzerland remains lowest at 0%
• Fed projections show nine officials anticipating a rate hike by end-2026, with markets pricing in a September increase and a second hike likely before year-end
• Norway's Norges Bank held at 4.25% but signaled likely future hikes as inflation hit 3.4% in May, while the ECB raised rates for the first time in nearly three years to 2.25%

US stock indices are showing resilience early Thursday with buyers defending dips ahead of the Juneteenth holiday market closure on Friday. The S&P 500 is targeting 7,500, the Nasdaq 100 is grinding above 30,000, and the Dow Jones 30 is approaching 52,000, with technical analysis pointing to continued upside despite choppy trading conditions.

• Markets are expected to trade in narrow ranges ahead of Friday's Juneteenth holiday closure, with limited volatility anticipated in the short term
• S&P 500 technical targets include 7,500 and 7,580 levels, with the 50-day EMA at 7,300 providing key support for dip buyers
• All three major indices show bullish bias with analysts expecting fresh highs over coming sessions, though volatility remains elevated

U.S. stock futures rose Thursday morning as investors processed the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady while signaling potential rate hikes ahead, with CME FedWatch showing a 70% chance of higher rates by September. Markets also responded to falling national gas prices below $4 per gallon and news of upcoming U.S.-Iran negotiations. Apple announced unavoidable price increases due to rising memory costs driven by AI spending.

• Stock futures climbed with S&P 500 futures up 0.8%, Dow futures up 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.4%; markets will be closed Friday for Juneteenth
• National gas prices fell below $4 per gallon from over $4.50 a month ago, providing relief to drivers during summer travel season, though California averages remain at $5.64
• Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed price increases are 'unavoidable' due to surging memory costs from AI spending, stating efforts to shield customers have become 'unsustainable'; Apple stock is up roughly 25% in 2026

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% as expected, but newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first press conference triggered a 500+ point drop in the Dow. The June economic projections showed 9 of 19 Fed policymakers now anticipate at least one rate hike by end of 2026, a dramatic reversal from earlier expectations of cuts. Warsh also eliminated forward guidance, creating uncertainty for markets that had been counting on rate cuts to support valuations.

• Nine of 19 FOMC participants now forecast at least one rate hike before end of 2026, compared to earlier discussions of potential cuts - representing a dramatic hawkish shift in Fed outlook
• Major indexes fell sharply after Warsh's comments: Dow dropped 500+ points, S&P 500 declined 1.2%, and Nasdaq-100 fell 1.4% as investors realized rate cuts are off the table
• Warsh ended the Fed's decade-long practice of forward guidance and declined to submit his own rate projection, leaving AI-driven growth stocks vulnerable to higher borrowing costs without policy clarity

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US stock futures jumped Thursday morning, with Dow futures up 315 points and Nasdaq 100 contracts rising 1.32%, led by a surge in Intel shares after President Trump announced Apple would partner with the chipmaker on domestic production. The rebound follows Wednesday's sell-off and comes ahead of the Juneteenth holiday, as traders weigh stronger retail sales, lower oil prices, and increased odds of a Fed rate hike later this year.

• Intel stock soared 9.3% in pre-market trading after Trump confirmed Apple will work with the company on US-based chip design and manufacturing, reinforcing Washington's push for domestic semiconductor capacity.
• Markets now price a 50% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in September, up from 27% on Wednesday, following hawkish Fed projections despite rates being held steady this week.
• Oil prices fell to three-month lows amid a US-Iran interim ceasefire agreement, easing inflation concerns, while May retail sales exceeded expectations and supported the view of gradual consumer spending slowdown.

Wall Street trade groups are pressuring U.S. banking regulators to revise their proposed 'Basel Endgame' capital requirements, warning the rules will harm liquidity in Treasury markets. Three major financial trade bodies sent a joint letter to the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC urging changes to the risk management proposals.

• Three leading global financial trade bodies co-signed a letter to U.S. regulators requesting revisions to Basel capital requirement proposals
• Wall Street warns the planned Basel Endgame implementation will negatively impact liquidity in critical Treasury markets
• The letter targets three key U.S. regulatory agencies: the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

Foreign governments, Wall Street banks, and multinational companies are increasingly issuing yuan-denominated panda bonds in China's domestic market, driven by borrowing costs below 3% compared to 4.5-5.5% in dollar markets. Beijing's easing of capital controls now allows issuers to move proceeds outside China, supporting the country's broader currency internationalization strategy. Panda bond issuance reached 137.1 billion yuan by mid-June 2025, up 80.4% year-over-year.

• Foreign issuers can borrow yuan at 1.7-2.2% versus 4.5-5.5% for dollar funding, saving two to three percentage points due to China's accommodative monetary policy and near-historic low domestic rates
• Beijing recently relaxed capital control restrictions, allowing overseas borrowers like Kazakhstan and Pakistan to deploy yuan proceeds outside China, a major policy shift that previously limited panda bond appeal
• The trend supports China's yuan internationalization push through its Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and commodity trade settlement, with foreign issuers now accounting for nearly half of 2025 panda bond volume

Oil prices fell sharply on Thursday after a U.S.-Iran interim deal reduced supply concerns, with WTI crude dropping below $80 to $79.40 and Brent falling to $74.70. The deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, potentially returning Iranian oil to global markets and eliminating the war premium that had supported prices.

• The U.S.-Iran deal could lead to oversupply, with forecasts showing supply may exceed demand by 5.05 million barrels per day in 2027 once Middle East oil returns
• WTI broke below the critical $80 support level with next support at $69, while Brent tested the $80-$81 zone with potential downside to $72-$74
• Technical indicators show extremely oversold conditions not seen since December 2025, suggesting a potential rebound from the $70-$80 range despite bearish fundamentals

India's National Stock Exchange (NSE), the country's largest bourse commanding 93% market share, has filed for an IPO that is expected to be among India's largest listings this year. The offering will be entirely an offer for sale, with major investors including State Bank of India, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, and Temasek paring their stakes. NSE has been attempting to list since 2016 and serves over 129 million registered investors.

• NSE and Reliance Jio's expected IPOs could raise a combined $6.3 billion, representing nearly one-third of all mainboard IPO fundraising from the previous year's 104 listings
• NSE's smaller competitor BSE currently trades at a market cap of $17.2 billion with a price-to-earnings ratio of 66 times on a trailing 12-month basis
• IPO activity is resuming after a slowdown caused by Middle East conflict fallout, with regulatory approval typically taking two to three months

Oil prices fell over 1% on Thursday after President Trump signed a deal with Iran's president to end conflict in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency forecasts this could trigger a major supply glut in 2027, with global supply expected to reach 110.3 million barrels per day.

• Brent crude futures dropped 1.13% to $78.65 per barrel while U.S. crude fell 1.26% to $75.82 per barrel following the U.S.-Iran deal announcement
• IEA projects a 'significant overhang' in 2027 with supply recovering to 110.3 million barrels per day after dropping to 102.4 mb/d in 2026
• Trump warned he would 'bomb the hell out of' Iran if it violates the agreement, adding uncertainty to the deal's stability

The CEOs of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic addressed G7 leaders at a summit in the French Alps, urging rapid action on AI governance while disagreeing on implementation approaches. The executives warned that advanced AI systems could surpass human capabilities within one to two years, raising national security concerns around cyber warfare, bioterrorism, and military power. The meeting occurred days after the Trump administration forced Anthropic to shut down operations, though this incident went unmentioned during talks.

• AI chiefs presented conflicting timelines and warnings: Amodei predicted AI would exceed human performance in 'everything' within 1-2 years, while Hassabis cited a 3-5 year window for governments to establish control
• Major disagreement emerged on governance: Amodei advocated for a US-led democratic coalition to control access and isolate adversaries like China, while Altman called for broader global access once guardrails are established
• Security threats, not job displacement, dominated concerns - executives focused on risks from cyber attacks, bioterrorism, nuclear threats, and warfare capabilities rather than economic inequality

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%-3.75% in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair with a unanimous vote, but newly released projections revealed a deeply divided committee on future rate policy. Danielle DiMartino Booth, former Fed adviser, highlighted that the unanimity masked sharp disagreement, with nine of 18 officials forecasting at least one hike in 2026 while nine saw no change or cuts.

• Markets sold off sharply: the two-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 4.15% (largest Fed-day move since January 2022), gold fell 2.2% to $4,236 per ounce, and the dollar strengthened
• The Fed raised its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.6% from 2.7% and core inflation to 3.3% from 2.7%, adopting a more hawkish outlook on prices
• Warsh announced task forces to review Fed communications, balance sheet, and inflation measurement by year-end, eliminated forward guidance, and cut the post-meeting statement by 62% to 130 words

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces challenges implementing his dovish rate-cut agenda as inflation pressures intensify. Despite his productivity-driven thesis that technological gains justify lower rates, bond markets have retreated from the 'Warsh trade' amid geopolitical tensions and rising inflation data. His path forward requires convincing a consensus-driven FOMC to support his dual framework of rate cuts paired with aggressive quantitative tightening.

• April CPI reached 3.8% with May forecasts near 4.2% year-over-year, while geopolitical events like the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure have pushed energy prices higher
• Bond markets have unwound initial expectations for aggressive rate cuts, with Treasury yields rising alongside firmer inflation data and some FOMC members keeping rate hikes on the table
• Warsh advocates a dual-policy approach combining front-loaded rate cuts with aggressive balance sheet reduction to lower borrowing costs while removing excess liquidity to restrain longer-term inflation

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in his first FOMC meeting but significantly changed Fed communication by eliminating forward guidance, removing easing bias, and declining to submit his own dot plot projection. Markets sold off as Warsh took a less dovish stance than expected, refusing to signal rate cuts despite recent Iran peace deal reducing oil prices.

• Warsh cut the official FOMC statement from 344 words to 132 words, removing all forward guidance and easing bias while launching five task forces to review Fed operations including the dot plot and press conference format
• The FOMC is deeply split on rate direction: nine officials project at least one hike this year, eight see no change, and one wants a cut, with the median year-end projection rising to 3.8% from 3.4% in March
• Core PCE inflation remains around 2.8%-3.0% (well above the Fed's 2% target) even after stripping out Iran conflict effects, while the labor market has tightened with job openings per unemployed worker rising back above 1.0