General Market News

Ukraine's military struck two Russian energy facilities on Wednesday and overnight: the TANECO oil refinery in Tatarstan and the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal in Krasnodar. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that both strikes caused fires at the targeted sites, continuing Ukraine's campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.

• TANECO oil refinery in Russia's Tatarstan region was hit by Ukrainian forces
• Tamanneftegaz oil terminal in Krasnodar region was also struck in the coordinated attacks
• Both facilities sustained fires as a result of the strikes, according to Ukrainian military reports

Bond yields rose Thursday morning after the Treasury Department announced it would double its debt buyback program, primarily targeting long-term bonds. The move temporarily sent yields tumbling Wednesday, with the 30-year yield dropping over 10 basis points, but yields are now edging higher again as traders digest the plan amid total U.S. government debt exceeding $40 trillion.

• The 30-year Treasury yield, the primary focus of the buyback program, increased 3 basis points to 5.2256% after falling more than 10 basis points the previous day
• Total U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, more than double the level from a decade ago, prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to dramatically expand debt repurchases
• The 10-year Treasury yield moved up 1 basis point to 4.6723%, remaining near levels not seen since before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Oil prices rose over 1.5% on Thursday after President Trump announced what he called the 'most crushing economic operation' ever taken against Iran, threatening severe penalties for countries supporting Tehran. The announcement came as the UAE suspended all trade with Iran following alleged missile strikes, intensifying pressure on the Islamic Republic amid stalled nuclear negotiations.

• Brent crude rose 1.59% to $93.08 per barrel while WTI crude climbed 1.63% to $87.23 as geopolitical tensions escalated
• Trump threatened 'tremendous economic consequences' against any country providing financial support to Iran, including cash transfers, currency swaps, and shipping registries
• The UAE, one of Iran's key commercial partners, halted all trade and financial transactions with Tehran after alleging two Iranian ballistic missiles were launched toward its territory

Hong Kong's stock exchange has seen over 100 company listings this year, raising more than $40 billion and already surpassing 2025's full-year IPO proceeds. HKEX CEO Bonnie Chan emphasized that the listing pipeline extends beyond tech and AI companies to include biotechnology, mining, and consumer sectors. The exchange posted record half-yearly profits with net income climbing 24% year-over-year to HK$10.57 billion.

• Average daily turnover at HKEX reached HK$280 billion in 2026 year-to-date, up from HK$250 billion for all of 2025, indicating increased global investor participation
• Follow-on offerings have already exceeded $50 billion year-to-date compared to $66 billion for the entire previous year
• Liquidity is driven by multiple sources including mainland China flows, international institutional investors, and regional retail investors, with cornerstone IPO investors including sovereign wealth funds from around the world

Swedish construction company Skanska has secured a $1.19 billion contract to build four data centres in the southeastern United States for an existing client. The project will span approximately 75,000 square meters and is scheduled to run from Q3 2026 through Q3 2028.

• The contract is valued at 11.2 billion Swedish crowns ($1.19 billion), making it a major infrastructure project for Skanska
• The four data centres will total about 808,000 square feet and include shell construction, technical spaces, support areas, and office functions
• Construction timeline spans two years from Q3 2026 to Q3 2028, though specific locations in the southeastern US were not disclosed

Bitcoin and ether surged after President Trump urged Congress to pass crypto legislation and the U.S. Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-dated bonds, sending yields lower. Bitcoin broke out of a six-week trading range between $62,000-$66,000, while ether rose 19% over seven days to $2,251. The rally triggered the second-largest short liquidation in crypto history.

• Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick predicts Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by year-end 2026, citing favorable macro conditions from Treasury's bond buyback expansion
• The Treasury's decision to double buybacks of 20-year and 30-year bonds lowered yields significantly, increasing the attractiveness of higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies
• The Hyperliquid token surged about 20% in 24 hours after Trump hinted at the decentralized exchange platform for perpetual futures trading

Unitree CEO Wang Xingxing stated that the robotics industry is approaching a 'ChatGPT moment' for embodied intelligence, where robots could autonomously complete 80% of household tasks through voice or text commands. However, he cautioned this breakthrough could take 2-3 years optimistically, or 5-10 years. China currently dominates the global humanoid robot market with 97% of shipments in H1 2026.

• China delivered over 40,000 humanoid robots in the first half of 2026, accounting for 97% of global shipments, as Beijing bets on robots to address its shrinking workforce
• Unitree is investing heavily in world models (physical AI simulation systems) but acknowledges it is 'lagging behind' in real-world applications, with current limitations in AI-powered decision-making being the industry's biggest bottleneck
• The U.S. recently banned future imports of foreign-made humanoid and quadruped robots citing national security concerns, marking a new front in U.S.-China technology rivalry and affecting Chinese manufacturers' expansion plans

Chinese government bonds are diverging from global markets as yields fall in China while surging to multi-decade highs in the U.S., Japan, and U.K. This divergence reflects China's insulation from global capital markets and deflationary pressures, in contrast to inflation concerns elsewhere. Strategists say this makes Chinese bonds attractive for portfolio diversification.

• China's weak July economic data, including disappointing retail sales and industrial production, is fueling expectations for more rate cuts and stimulus from the People's Bank of China
• Chinese government bonds still provide positive real yields with defensive characteristics, according to Invesco's head of fixed income for Asia Pacific
• China's distinct rate cycle from the U.S., Europe, and Japan creates diversification benefits for global investors as other major central banks have been hiking rates

Japan's exports grew 23.2% in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration and the fastest growth since October 2022, surpassing economist estimates of 19.9%. The surge was driven primarily by robust semiconductor equipment shipments, which jumped 49.1% amid AI-driven demand. Strong export performance has been crucial in supporting Japan's GDP growth.

• Semiconductor equipment shipments surged 49.1% by value, reflecting continued demand from the artificial intelligence boom
• Exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner, rose 25.8%, while shipments to the U.S. climbed 22%
• Imports jumped 27.8% to the highest level since November 2022, with petroleum imports surging 87.8% due to rising oil prices from Iran war tensions

Bally's Corporation, a major casino operator, disclosed 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a going concern in its Q2 earnings filing with the SEC. The company is struggling with debt pressures and is actively pursuing financing alternatives including asset sales, equity offerings, and debt refinancing to enhance liquidity. Bally's operates 20 casinos globally and is developing major projects including an integrated resort in Chicago.

• Bally's has paused construction on portions of its Chicago integrated resort project amid financial uncertainty and is working on a non-binding term sheet for a loan to fund continued development
• The company's stock has fallen 46.8% since the start of 2025, though only down 4.9% over the past year
• Bally's operates 20 casinos in the U.S. and UK, the Bally Bet Sportsbook licensed in 14 jurisdictions, and holds development rights for projects in Las Vegas and The Bronx, New York

Treasury bond yields surged to multi-year highs in August, with the 30-year touching 5.33% (a 19-year high) as 'Bond Vigilantes' punished Washington for fiscal deficits and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's refusal to aggressively fight inflation. The Treasury temporarily eased pressure by more than doubling debt buybacks, dropping the 30-year to 5.19% and the 10-year to 4.65%, but the move addresses liquidity, not underlying fiscal and inflation concerns.

• Bond investors are protesting Warsh's hands-off approach to inflation (still above 2% for 63 months) and lack of forward guidance, despite government interest costs exceeding $1 trillion annually
• Analysts Luke Lango and Ed Yardeni both identify 5% on the 10-year Treasury as the critical threshold: below that level, AI-driven earnings growth (16% forward CAGR) can sustain the bull market; above it, consumer weakness threatens corporate earnings
• The Treasury's buyback program recycles debt maturities rather than reducing deficits, leaving vigilantes' core grievances unresolved ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech next week

U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the nation's fiscal situation. This breaking news development highlights the continued growth of federal borrowing and raises concerns about long-term debt sustainability and fiscal policy.

• The $40 trillion threshold represents a historic high in total U.S. government debt outstanding
• This milestone underscores ongoing debates about federal spending, deficits, and the need for fiscal reform
• Rising debt levels may impact future policy decisions, borrowing costs, and economic stability

President Donald Trump criticized the Federal Reserve on Wednesday for not cutting interest rates despite positive economic data, arguing that lower rates are needed to sustain growth and reduce the burden of nearly $36 trillion in national debt. Trump praised Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh but accused other board members of political motivations, though the Fed hasn't raised rates in over three years and cut three times in 2025.

• Trump compared U.S. rates (3.5%) unfavorably to countries like Switzerland (0.5%), threatening to 'cut off all business' with Switzerland over the rate disparity
• The Fed's July FOMC meeting minutes showed 'many' officials expect higher rates may be necessary unless inflation shows more progress toward the 2% target
• U.S. GDP grew 1.6% in Q2 2026, below expectations and slower than Q1's 2.1% rate, while Treasury announced an upscaled buyback program for debt with 10+ year duration

The Dow Jones rose 119.71 points (0.22%) on Wednesday as the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double its buyback operations for 10-30 year bonds, pushing the 30-year yield down 9 basis points to 5.195% and the 10-year yield down 5 basis points to 4.653%. Moderna surged after its personalized mRNA cancer treatment with Merck met trial goals for reducing melanoma recurrence, lifting the healthcare sector to record highs.

• Treasury buyback program targeting longer-term debt reversed recent yield increases, with the 30-year yield falling from a 19-year high of 5.33%, supporting rate-sensitive stocks like Lowe's (+3%) and Home Depot (+2%)
• Moderna's positive cancer vaccine trial results drove massive gains and lifted other healthcare names including Novavax and BioNTech, making healthcare the S&P 500's biggest sector contributor
• Tech stocks showed mixed performance as Broadcom and AMD fell 4% following disappointing OpenAI revenue results, while Marvell gained 9% on an expanded Google partnership involving custom AI chips worth up to $12.2 billion

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced increased buybacks of long-term Treasury debt (from $2 billion to at least $4 billion) to curb rising yields, which had reached 4.74% on the 10-year. The move, expected to be funded by issuing more short-term bills rather than long-term bonds, aligns with Bessent's focus on lowering long-term rates but raises concerns about inflation and pressures on the Federal Reserve under Chairman Kevin Warsh.

• The buyback announcement reversed the bond selloff, with 10-year Treasury yields falling from 4.74% to 4.65%, but critics warn the strategy could fuel inflation and make government borrowing costs more sensitive to rate changes
• Treasury is expected to fund buybacks by issuing short-term bills, which currently comprise over 24% of debt (above the 20% ceiling recommended by Treasury's own advisory committee), manipulating the yield curve
• The intervention puts pressure on Fed Chair Warsh to support fiscal policy objectives, with economists warning this could lead to 'large policy errors' and complicate the Fed's independence, particularly as Warsh prepares to address these issues at Jackson Hole

The July 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes revealed growing Fed concern over persistent inflation that remains elevated even excluding tariffs and energy prices. The committee held rates steady but three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh proposed reducing the meeting schedule from eight to six meetings annually starting in 2027.

• Several FOMC members noted inflation was 'broad based' across goods and services categories, with underlying inflation appearing elevated even after excluding tariff and energy-affected items
• Three members (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) dissented in favor of raising rates, with some participants warning that financial conditions might not be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%
• Gold prices rose 3.24% to $4,474.88 following the release, as Warsh's proposal for six meetings per year (versus current eight) would allow more time between policy decisions

Oil prices surged to new highs following escalating Middle East tensions, as the UAE halted all trade and financial transactions with Iran after Iran fired missiles that landed in the sea. Natural gas also gained ground supported by hotter weather forecasts and increased demand expectations. The developments come amid concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed and that Iran may further escalate the conflict rather than return to negotiations.

• WTI oil tested resistance at $86.00-$86.50 while Brent oil attempted to settle above $92.50, driven by expectations of continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising Middle East tensions
• UAE's decision to stop all trade with Iran after a missile attack is expected to deal a major blow to Iran's economy, though traders anticipate further escalation rather than near-term negotiations
• U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.4 million barrels versus forecasts of a 0.6 million barrel decline, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell from 298.7 to 293.4 million barrels

Federal Reserve officials indicated at their July 28-29 meeting that they may need to raise interest rates if inflation doesn't decline further, according to released minutes. The FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of an immediate quarter-point hike. The decision comes as inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target despite recent modest monthly price increases.

• Three regional Fed presidents (Cleveland's Hammack, Dallas's Logan, Minneapolis's Kashkari) voted against holding rates, arguing an immediate hike would prevent steeper increases later
• The personal consumption expenditures price index fell 0.1% in June but remains at 3.7% annually, well above the Fed's 2% target
• Chairman Kevin Warsh proposed reducing FOMC meetings from eight to six per year to allow more data accumulation between meetings, though no decision was made

Diesel prices in California have reached $7 per gallon, up 30 cents from a month ago and $1.89 compared to last year, driven by supply disruptions from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have knocked out approximately 8% of global diesel supply. The price surge threatens to create significant inflationary pressures as diesel is critical for transportation, agriculture, and industrial uses.

• Global diesel supply has been reduced by about 8% of the 28 million barrels per day demand, with Russia banning 800,000 bpd of diesel exports due to Ukrainian drone attacks and Middle East disruptions affecting 1.2 million bpd
• Refining margins have surged to $100 per barrel for converting crude to diesel, higher than the $85 per barrel price of U.S. crude oil itself, creating massive profits for refiners
• California faces particularly high prices due to reliance on costly crude imports, special diesel formulation requirements, environmental regulations, and state taxes, with national average diesel at $5.50 per gallon

Cantor Fitzgerald will provide institutional trading access to prediction market platform Kalshi, marking a significant expansion of hedge fund participation in event contract markets. Cantor will act as broker for block trades while Susquehanna International Group will serve as market maker, addressing institutional investors' need to transact at scale on regulated exchanges.

• Cantor Fitzgerald will organize block trades (large, privately negotiated transactions) on Kalshi's event contracts for institutional clients, with ability to request new market designs subject to CFTC approval
• Susquehanna International Group will provide pricing and liquidity as market maker, with executives viewing institutional risk transfer as the next phase of material growth for prediction markets
• Kalshi has shifted focus toward professional investors despite retail traders initially driving growth through sports-related contracts, completing its first block trade in April