General Market News

Long-dated government bond yields surged globally, with U.S. 30-year yields hitting multi-year highs, driven by escalating Iran conflict tensions and energy supply concerns. President Trump took an uncompromising stance with Tehran, threatening extended Gulf blockages that could pressure inflation through winter. The yield spike occurred despite reduced Fed rate hike expectations, weighing on equity markets.

• Brent crude prices rose overnight as Iranian officials discussed retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about prolonged energy supply disruptions heading into winter
• The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached multi-year highs on Tuesday, alongside German, French, and Japanese long-dated yields, potentially pressured by AI-related corporate borrowing competition
• Trump's approval rating fell to 33% with 80% of Americans (including 71% of Republicans) expecting extended U.S. involvement in Iran ahead of November mid-term elections

Idemitsu Kosan, Japan's second-largest oil refiner, has begun sourcing Saudi crude via a longer Suez route through the Cape of Good Hope due to Houthi attacks making the Bab el-Mandeb Strait impassable. Despite shipping times tripling from 20 to 50-60 days and higher costs, the company reports no near-term threat to stable supplies, supplemented by UAE crude and North American imports.

• Saudi crude shipments now take 50-60 days instead of the typical 20 days, with crude loaded from Yanbu, transported through Egypt's Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline to Sidi Kerir for export
• Japan sourced 94% of its crude imports from the Middle East in 2025, with 93% passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran effectively closed since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February 2026
• Idemitsu's president says shifting away from Middle Eastern crude would require costly refinery modifications amounting to 'unnecessary investment,' though acknowledges the need to discuss appropriate supply balance going forward

Global government bond yields surged to multi-decade highs on Tuesday after diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran collapsed without a breakthrough. The failed negotiations raised concerns about prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, fueling worries about sustained higher oil prices and persistent inflation that could keep borrowing costs elevated.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.74%, the highest since 2007, while 30-year yields reached their highest level since 2002 at 5.33%
• Germany's 10-year bond yield reached a 15-year high, Japan's 10-year yield topped 2.95% (a 40-year high), and yields spiked across French, Italian, UK, and Spanish government bonds
• Brent crude oil prices climbed above $90 per barrel as the nearly six-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive up energy and commodity costs

Treasury yields rose sharply on Tuesday, with long-dated yields reaching their highest levels in over two decades, driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed inflation concerns. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.32%, approaching its highest level since 2002, as a 60-day peace deal deadline expired without resolution. Rising oil prices and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are fueling investor worries about sustained inflation.

• The 30-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.322%, hovering near its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year yield increased to 4.736%
• Iran ruled out extending the 60-day U.S. peace deal deadline and threatened to take an 'offensive stance' if diplomacy fails, raising fears of extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• Global bond yields are surging across developed markets, with Japan's long-dated yields near 40-year highs, Germany's 30-year yield at the highest since 2011, and similar multi-decade highs in the UK and France

Saudi Aramco resumed oil loadings from inside the Strait of Hormuz in mid-August after a weeks-long halt following attacks on its tanker fleet during U.S.-Iran tensions. The state energy giant is offering spot cargoes of Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude, with three VLCCs loading 2 million barrels each between August 12-16. This move could help ease tight supply of heavier crude grades used for residue fuel production.

• Three VLCCs loaded 6 million barrels total from Juaymah and Ras Tanura terminals after a three-week gap in loadings, with six more VLCCs potentially scheduled to load later in August
• Saudi exports remain constrained by Houthi blockades in the Red Sea, forcing diversions to Egypt's Sidi Kerir port, which is exporting only 670,000 barrels per day to Asia versus 4 million bpd previously from Yanbu
• The Sidi Kerir alternative route is proving unpopular with Asian customers, particularly Chinese buyers, due to longer voyage times and significantly higher freight costs

Two Chinese state-owned shipping giants, COSCO and China Merchants Energy Shipping, have stopped sending oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb since late July due to ongoing Middle East conflict. The companies, which control over 100 supertankers and previously handled half of China's Middle Eastern crude imports, are now loading oil at ports outside the Gulf such as Fujairah and Omani locations. This shift significantly impacts oil supply routes to the world's largest importer amid heightened security concerns.

• The two shippers control more than 100 VLCCs (very large crude carriers) capable of carrying 2 million barrels each and previously transported roughly half of China's 4.9 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude imports
• Ship-to-ship transfers involving Chinese vessels in the Gulf of Oman surged to over 600,000 bpd in June-July 2026, up from zero in April-May and under 30,000 bpd in January-February
• Daily freight margins for Oman-China voyages have nearly tripled to approximately $110,000 per tanker from $30,000-$40,000 before the Iran war, driven by longer routes and heightened security risks

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 5.311%, its highest level since June 2007, despite weaker economic data that would typically push yields lower. Strategists warn the selloff in long-dated government bonds could intensify, with yields potentially reaching 5.60%-5.70%, driven by multiple risk factors including global yield pressures, stronger-than-expected economic growth, and supply concerns.

• Global yields are rising in tandem, with Japan's JGB yields climbing and foreign holdings of Treasurys declining in June, led by reductions from the U.K., China, and Japan
• If U.S. growth remains robust and inflation stays above 3%, the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates more than currently priced in by markets, historically associated with over 100 basis points of tightening
• Heavy Treasury issuance and weak auction demand are pressuring long-dated bonds, with the latest 30-year auction clearing at its highest yield since 2001 and five of seven recent 20-year auctions underperforming expectations

Nicotine pouches are emerging as a key growth driver for Big Tobacco as cigarette sales decline, offering faster growth and higher margins than vapes or heated tobacco products. Major manufacturers like Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco are betting on pouches to expand beyond established markets in Scandinavia and the U.S., though cultural barriers and increasing regulatory scrutiny pose significant challenges to global adoption.

• BAT predicts industry pouch revenue will reach £11 billion ($15 billion) by 2030, up from £4 billion in 2025, overtaking vapes with 47 million expected users
• Philip Morris's U.S. pouch business generated eight times the gross profit per thousand units of its international cigarette business in 2024, far exceeding its IQOS heated tobacco device
• 160 countries still lack specific pouch regulations according to WHO, but authorities are growing concerned about youth uptake and aggressive marketing, with France banning pouches and the EU tightening rules

Crude oil prices surged on August 18, 2026, with WTI gaining over 3% to $84.96 and Brent rising 2.5% to $92.81 as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated and diplomatic talks collapsed. Near-total disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about supply delays and higher shipping costs, potentially pushing Brent toward $100 per barrel.

• Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed to just three boats on Sunday versus 130 before tensions escalated, creating delivery delays and increasing freight and insurance costs
• Technical analysis shows WTI could reach $93.80 with a break above $87, while Brent may advance to $125 if it breaks above the $100 level
• Potential resumption of Chinese crude imports, which recently dropped 4-5 million bpd, could add further upward pressure on oil prices if buyers return at current elevated levels

A cargo vessel was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, causing engine damage and a crew casualty, as the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without renewal. Iranian military officials threatened continued attacks on vessels transiting the strait, while President Trump ruled out extending the ceasefire, saying Iran won't accept his terms. The standoff threatens critical oil shipping routes, though global markets have adapted by routing oil around Hormuz.

• The Strait of Hormuz, which handled about 20% of global crude oil and gas before the conflict, remains near a standstill with shipping severely disrupted since February
• Trump rejected ceasefire extension and threatened Oman for 'getting in the way' of U.S. efforts to reopen the strait, while Iran continues negotiations with Oman on alternative maritime routes
• Oil prices rose modestly following the ceasefire expiry, with Brent crude above $90 per barrel, though prices have stayed below $100 as global markets successfully rerouted supply

South Korean retail investors net bought $4.5 billion of U.S. stocks in July while selling domestic stocks, despite their home market entering bull territory. They are primarily buying AI-related and leveraged products through U.S.-listed securities, maintaining similar investment themes but changing geographic vehicles. This flow is creating unusual price discrepancies and could amplify volatility in individual U.S. stocks, though it's unlikely to affect broader U.S. markets.

• Korean investors purchased $840 million in SK Hynix U.S. depositary receipts despite the stock being available domestically, with ADRs trading at a premium—a pattern analysts call 'absolutely crazy' and reminiscent of dot-com bubble speculation
• Four of the 10 most purchased U.S. securities in July were leveraged products, including the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF, as investors amplify bets on the same AI and semiconductor themes they held in Korea
• Margin loan balances in Korean markets plunged from 37 trillion won ($26 billion) in June to 27 trillion won in early August as investors redirected capital to U.S. markets during the domestic correction

China is prioritizing AI development as a matter of national resolve, aiming for self-sufficiency rather than global leadership, despite facing a significant financing gap with the U.S. Private sector AI investment in the U.S. is approximately 23 times greater than in mainland China, though China compensates with state subsidies and lower power costs. The competition centers on whether capital intensity (U.S.) or cost efficiency (China) will determine the winner of the AI race.

• U.S. private sector AI investment is roughly 23 times higher than China's, with President Trump gathering Wall Street titans to raise $500 billion for AI development
• Huawei's most advanced Ascend 950 chips have only 13% of the computing power of one Nvidia GB300 chip, and Huawei is expected to produce just 1.35 million AI chips in 2026 versus at least 6 million from Nvidia
• China plans to invest 3 trillion yuan in computing power infrastructure through 2030, focusing on AI integration across industries rather than developing the smartest models

Edward Zimbardi, 59, of Georgia was deported from Fiji to face federal charges for allegedly running a crypto Ponzi scheme called The Crypto Program that defrauded over 6,000 investors of more than $165 million. He faces 12 counts of wire fraud, 12 counts of money laundering, and one count of money laundering conspiracy for a scheme that ran from June 2022 to August 2023.

• Zimbardi promised investors a guaranteed 25% monthly return on a $550 initial investment for purchasing online advertising packages, but instead allegedly lost tens of millions betting on foreign currency and spent at least $10 million on personal expenses including a house for his son and alimony payments.
• He fled to Fiji in July 2025 after learning of an FBI investigation and skipped his son's wedding in Virginia to avoid arrest before being extradited back to the U.S.
• The scheme operated as a classic Ponzi, using new investor money to repay earlier investors while the operator misappropriated funds, with victims located around the world.

US stocks declined on Monday, with the Dow falling 272 points (0.51%) to 53,459.78, as investors weighed escalating US-Iran tensions and rising oil prices. The S&P 500 dropped 0.52% and the Nasdaq fell 0.32% as a US-Iran ceasefire expired with negotiations stalled. Higher energy prices pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since June 2007, raising inflation concerns.

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.7% to $84.69 per barrel and Brent crude gained 2.6% to $90.84 as the US-Iran ceasefire expired without progress in diplomatic talks
• Most S&P 500 sectors declined, with communications services, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary among the weakest, though energy stocks gained on higher oil prices
• Micron shares jumped 4% on AI optimism and reports that the Trump administration opposes Apple buying memory chips from China, while investors await Nvidia earnings next week

Oil prices rallied after President Trump stated the U.S. is in no hurry for an Iran deal and threatened to bomb Oman if it 'gets in the way' of U.S. interests. WTI crude rose 2.51% and Brent climbed 2.11%, with traders reducing expectations for a near-term diplomatic resolution. Escalating Middle East tensions, including Israeli strikes in Lebanon and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disputes, provided additional support to oil markets.

• WTI oil is attempting to settle above $84, with resistance at $86.00-$86.50 and a potential move toward the $90 psychological level if momentum continues
• Brent crude is testing the $90 level, with next resistance at $91.00-$91.50, as markets price in prolonged U.S.-Iran tensions and regional escalation risks
• Natural gas declined 0.69% to $2.69 on cooler weather forecasts and robust production, with support at $2.62 and resistance at $2.75-$2.80

Investment firm General Atlantic has selected JPMorgan Chase to lead its initial public offering, reviving listing plans that were stalled for nearly three years since a confidential filing in December 2023. The company has also hired Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs for the IPO, which could occur as soon as this year, capitalizing on a rebounding U.S. IPO market.

• General Atlantic manages approximately $130 billion in assets and has invested $121 billion since inception, with portfolio holdings including AI firm Anthropic, India's PhonePe, and Mexican bank Banamex
• The firm originally delayed its IPO due to market volatility after confidentially filing in December 2023, but is now moving forward amid improved market conditions
• The U.S. IPO market has rebounded recently, with prominent offerings like SpaceX earlier this year encouraging more companies across sectors to go public

Oil refiner stocks including Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 have surged over 80% in 2026 due to geopolitical tensions expanding crack spreads to $59/barrel from a historical average of $19. Historical analysis shows that when this refining index trades 41% above its 150-day moving average, it has posted negative returns over the following six months in all five previous occurrences, averaging -10.1%.

• The WTI 3-2-1 crack spread reached approximately $70 for September delivery, nearly tripling since January due to hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz and reduced Russian refined product output (down 25-30%)
• Forward crack spreads for August 2027 are already pricing in 35% lower margins at $44.38, suggesting markets expect normalization from current elevated levels
• The analyst recommends profit-taking or bearish options strategies (December 2026 put spread on Marathon Petroleum) to position for mean reversion if geopolitical tensions ease

Memory stocks rallied on August 17, 2026, lifting the Nasdaq higher after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Apple to avoid sourcing Chinese chips during a DRAM and NAND shortage. The Dow and S&P 500 remained lower due to rising crude oil prices and new tensions in the Strait of Hormuz threatening supply disruptions.

• Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate gained over 2.5-5% after Washington blocked Apple from using Chinese memory chips amid existing supply shortages driven by AI data center demand
• WTI crude rose 0.5% to $83/barrel and Brent gained 0.6% to $89 as Iran threatened to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz if U.S. diplomacy fails
• Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.16% to 26,770 while the Dow fell 0.33% and S&P 500 dropped 0.12%; upcoming FOMC minutes and retail earnings from Home Depot, Lowe's, and Walmart will test consumer strength

Wall Street enters a light economic calendar week focused on major retail earnings from Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, which will provide insights into US consumer spending amid elevated borrowing costs and inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, due Wednesday, will also be scrutinized for clues on future interest rate decisions after three officials dissented in favor of a rate hike.

• Walmart reports Thursday and has beaten earnings estimates in 15 of the past 16 quarters, making its guidance critical for assessing consumer health and tariff impacts
• Fed minutes expected Wednesday should reveal debate details after three policymakers dissented for a 25-basis-point hike, with markets watching for September rate decision clues
• Home Depot and Target earnings will test consumer resilience in home improvement and discretionary spending amid weak housing affordability and persistent economic uncertainty

ByteDance and the Motion Picture Association signed an agreement to strengthen copyright protections on ByteDance's AI video and image-generation models. The deal resolves concerns raised by Disney and other studios in February about unauthorized generation of copyrighted characters and celebrity likenesses. The agreement covers ByteDance's Seedance and Seedream models used across TikTok, CapCut, and Dreamina.

• The MPA sent a cease-and-desist letter earlier this year after studios complained that Seedance could generate content featuring copyrighted film and TV characters without permission
• ByteDance updated its Seedance video and Seedream image-generation models with stronger intellectual property protections
• Both parties committed to ongoing collaboration on copyright safeguards as AI technology continues to evolve