Case-Shiller Home Prices Come in Muted

• The 20-city composite rose +0.9%, down 30 bps from the previous month, with higher mortgage rates dampening price growth
• Real home price returns have been negative for nine straight months, rising slower than the inflation rate
• Chicago (+5.0%) and New York (+4.7%) led price gains, while Denver (-2.2%) was the weakest market

Summary: Case-Shiller Home Prices Show Moderation Amid Mixed Market Session

Key Market Data:

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February rose 0.9% on the 20-city composite, declining 30 basis points month-over-month. Real home price returns have now been negative (rising slower than inflation) for nine consecutive months, driven by higher mortgage rates.

Regional Performance:

Top-performing cities included Chicago (+5.0%), New York (+4.7%), and Cleveland (+4.2%). Denver showed the weakest performance at -2.2%, replacing Tampa as the slowest-growing market. Los Angeles and Washington DC also posted declines.

Broader Market Context:

Pre-market trading showed reversal patterns, with the Dow up 58 points (+0.12%) while the Nasdaq fell 319 points (-1.16%), S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both down 0.60%. Tech stocks were particularly pressured following a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI missed quarterly targets. Rising oil prices and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian conflict continued to impact markets.

Q1 Earnings Highlights:

• General Motors: Beat expectations with $3.70 per share
• Coca-Cola: Reported positive results
• UPS: Beat by 3 cents with $1.07 per share
• Spotify: Exceeded estimates at $4.04 per share
• BP: Results mentioned but specifics not detailed

Market Implications:

The moderated home price growth signals cooling housing market conditions, potentially beneficial for inflation trends but reflecting pressure from elevated mortgage rates on affordability and demand.