US companies project resilience even as Iran war risks mount

• A Reuters review found 24 companies withdrew or cut forecasts, 35 signaled price hikes, and 35 warned of financial impacts since the war began.
• Wall Street analysts raised Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth expectations to 16.1% from 14.3% pre-war, driven largely by tech and energy sectors.
• Airlines face the greatest risk with jet fuel prices nearly doubled since end-February, forcing carriers like JetBlue to cut capacity, slow hiring, and raise fares while managing pre-sold tickets.

Summary

Major U.S. companies are projecting resilience amid the Iran war despite mounting cost pressures from surging oil and input prices. A Reuters analysis found that 24 companies have withdrawn or cut forecasts, 35 signaled price hikes, and 35 warned of financial hits since the conflict began.

Key Companies and Positions:

Optimistic: Coca-Cola and PepsiCo struck confident tones, having locked in lower prices before disruptions began, though both face higher packaging costs for plastics and aluminum. General Motors lifted its full-year earnings forecast despite expecting $1.5-2 billion in inflation-related costs, citing a resilient U.S. market and expected tariff refunds.

Cautious: UPS maintained its revenue target but warned high gasoline prices could crimp demand later in the year. Procter & Gamble projected a $1 billion hit to fiscal 2027 profits from rising oil costs.

Most Exposed: Airlines face severe pressure as jet fuel prices nearly doubled since late February. JetBlue Airways reported a larger first-quarter loss and plans to slow hiring, cut capacity, and raise fares.

Market Impact:

Oil prices have jumped since the conflict started, driving up costs across industries already strained by U.S. tariffs. S&P 500 first-quarter earnings growth expectations rose to 16.1% (April 24) from 14.3% (February 27), largely driven by technology and energy sectors.

Analysts warn continued energy price increases could fuel broader inflation, forcing companies to pass costs to consumers and potentially triggering spending pullbacks. The optimistic messaging from executives is viewed as necessary to prevent sharp stock sell-offs in the current market environment.