General Market News

UK consumer confidence fell two points to -21 in March 2026 as Middle East conflict concerns weighed on household sentiment. The decline was driven by sharply lower economic expectations and major purchase intentions, while savings rose as consumers adopted a more cautious approach. Analysts warn the situation could deteriorate further without conflict resolution or government intervention on energy costs.

• Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months plunged six points to -37, while the Major Purchase Index dropped four points to -18
• The Savings Index jumped six points to 27, indicating households are holding cash rather than spending amid economic uncertainty
• GfK's consumer insights director warned that the current 'ripple of fear' could turn into a 'flood' without swift conflict resolution or fresh government support such as energy bill assistance

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, now entering its fifth week, has caused severe market volatility and sleepless nights for traders and investors globally. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel and triggered widespread selloffs across asset classes, with traditional safe havens like gold down 16% and Treasury yields up 46 basis points this month. Fund managers are aggressively cutting positions and moving to cash amid unprecedented uncertainty about the conflict's duration and economic impact.

• Asian markets have been hit hardest, with South Korean equities down 13% and Japan's Nikkei down 9% this month, compared to a 6% decline in U.S. stocks
• Traditional safe-haven assets are failing, with gold on track for its biggest monthly decline since 2008 and typical risk-off currencies like the yen and Swiss franc not providing protection
• Corporate credit markets are also affected, with banks backing $18 billion in debt for the $55 billion Electronic Arts takeover adjusting terms based on Trump's shifting deadlines for strikes on Iranian infrastructure

Asia-focused private equity firms raised only $58 billion in 2025, the lowest level in over a decade, marking the fourth consecutive year of downturn. The emerging war in the Middle East threatens to derail a nascent recovery that had begun in late 2025, as geopolitical uncertainty causes investors to pause commitments and Middle Eastern funds redirect focus homeward. Despite challenges, top-tier managers continue attracting capital, with approximately 60 funds seeking over $1 billion each.

• Six of the largest funds had secured approximately $25 billion in commitments by end of 2025; if closed at targets, they alone would surpass the entire $58 billion raised across all Asia-Pacific funds last year
• The Middle East conflict introduces uncertainty comparable to tariff disruptions in early 2024, causing investors to delay commitments and making Middle Eastern sovereign funds—major PE capital sources—temporarily unavailable for fundraising
• Net cash flows to limited partners turned positive for the first time since 2021, and around 60 Asia Pacific-focused funds are actively seeking to close funds worth more than $1 billion each, signaling concentration of capital among established managers

Wall Street banks are positioned to regain market share from private credit lenders after a decade of decline, as private credit faces rising defaults, liquidity pressures, and regulatory headwinds. Banks' share of leveraged lending fell from 85% to 54% over the past decade, but easing regulations and improving conditions may reverse this trend. The shift comes as private credit struggles with fallout from aggressive lending during the high-rate environment.

• Banks' share of leveraged lending dropped from 85% (pre-2015) to 54% currently, while private credit grew rapidly by offering faster execution and looser terms to borrowers, particularly private equity firms.
• Expected weakening of Basel III Endgame regulations under the Trump administration could significantly improve banks' competitiveness by reducing capital requirements for corporate lending.
• Private credit faces mounting challenges including higher default risks, investor liquidity demands, and credit problems from geopolitical tensions and high borrowing costs, though it retains structural advantages like speed and flexibility.

Asian stock markets plunged on Friday, extending a global selloff driven by fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict disrupting energy supplies and stoking inflation. The Nasdaq confirmed a correction, falling nearly 11% from recent highs, while bond yields surged globally as central banks flagged potential rate hikes. President Trump delayed his Iran ultimatum by 10 days, but escalation concerns persist with oil prices elevated and the Strait of Hormuz shipping disrupted.

• The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.4% overnight, confirming an 11% correction from its October 29 peak, while MSCI Asia-Pacific dropped 1.4% with South Korea's KOSPI plunging 8.5% for the week
• Brent crude fell 1% to $107.07/barrel after jumping 6% previously; analysts warn severe conflict scenarios could push global inflation beyond 4% and drag growth below 2%
• Global bond yields spiked on inflation fears, with markets now pricing in a 50% chance of a U.S. Fed rate hike this year; Norway's central bank reversed course to signal rate increases ahead

Sen. Elizabeth Warren sent a scathing letter to Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh, accusing him of being a 'rubber stamp' for Trump's Wall Street agenda and stating he learned nothing from his failures during the 2008 financial crisis. Warren argues Warsh's prior tenure as Fed governor from 2006-2011 should disqualify him from promotion, citing his defense of subprime mortgages, prioritization of bank bailouts over workers, and advocacy against financial safeguards.

• Warren claims Warsh ignored excessive Wall Street risk-taking before 2008, promoted derivatives as safe, and prioritized bailing out large financial institutions including Morgan Stanley where he previously worked
• The nomination is blocked by Sen. Vance until a criminal investigation of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved, with a judge ruling the probe appears designed to harass Powell into yielding to Trump
• Warren's eight-page letter includes pointed questions across 10 subject areas for Warsh's confirmation hearing at the Senate Banking Committee, where she serves as ranking Democrat

US stock markets experienced their largest decline since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, with the Dow falling 450 points, the S&P 500 down 1.7%, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.3% into correction territory. The slump occurred as Trump sent mixed signals about negotiations with Iran, despite oil prices surging to levels not seen since 2022-2023 and inflation expected to reach 4.2% in 2026.

• Brent crude oil reached approximately $107 per barrel and US crude hit $93 per barrel, pushing average US gas prices to $3.98 per gallon
• The OECD estimates US inflation will average 4.2% in 2026, up from 2.6% in 2025, with G20 countries seeing inflation 1.2% higher on average due to elevated oil and fertilizer prices
• The White House extended a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes by 10 days until April 6, as Trump claimed talks with Iran are 'going very well' despite earlier warnings to Iranian negotiators

Goldman Sachs warns that the Iran war could significantly elevate U.S. inflation this year through higher oil prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. The firm projects Brent crude oil averaging $105-$115 per barrel in March-April under a baseline scenario, with potential peaks as high as $160 under severe disruption scenarios. This oil price shock could push PCE inflation to 3.1% by December 2026, well above the Fed's 2% target.

• Brent crude is expected to average $105 in March and $115 in April before declining to $80 by Q4 2026, assuming six weeks of low oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz; severe scenarios project peaks of $140-$160 per barrel
• Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.1% in the baseline scenario (up 0.2pp), with adverse scenarios reaching 3.6%-4% after spring peaks of 4.6%-4.9%
• The firm increased its 12-month recession probability by 5 percentage points to 30% and lowered 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1% Q4-over-Q4, while maintaining expectations for two Fed rate cuts in September and December

Retail investors have shifted from buying market dips to selling rallies, marking their first net selling day since November 2023 amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. The S&P 500 has fallen approximately 5% since late February as the war has driven oil prices higher, intensifying concerns about inflation and economic growth. This behavioral shift signals a decisive change in investor sentiment, particularly as even optimistic retail traders show skepticism about peace prospects.

• Retail investors sold $5.5 million of single stocks during Wednesday's rally, with particularly aggressive selling of Nvidia ($55 million in the first two hours), indicating reluctance to chase the ceasefire-driven bounce
• Financial sector stocks have experienced near-record outflows, with less than 25% trading above their November lows, raising concerns about underlying economic health and the durability of the bull market
• The Iran conflict has caused oil price spikes and threatens to exacerbate existing market pressures, including a weakening labor market and rising inflation that had investors on edge before the war began

U.S. markets face a holiday-shortened week ending with Good Friday on April 3, 2026. Key economic data including retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and the employment report are scheduled for release throughout the week. Earnings reports from Nike, Cal-Maine Foods, Conagra, and McCormick will also be announced during the abbreviated trading period.

• Retail sales data and ISM manufacturing data will be released Wednesday, April 1, alongside business inventories and final S&P manufacturing PMI
• The U.S. employment report and hourly wages data are scheduled for Friday, April 3, when markets will be closed for Good Friday
• Tuesday, March 31 will feature S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI, and consumer confidence data

A recent conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has caused oil prices to surge to $100-120 per barrel due to supply disruptions in the Gulf region, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Global markets have shown relatively modest declines (S&P 500 down ~2%), suggesting investors may not have fully priced in the conflict's potential long-term economic impacts, including higher inflation and reduced growth forecasts.

• Oil supply disruptions from attacks on Iranian facilities and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed prices above $100 per barrel, with insurers refusing coverage for ships in the region
• Energy companies like BP have benefited from price increases while oil-dependent sectors like airlines face significant pressure from higher fuel costs and operational disruptions
• Analysts recommend holding positions rather than panic selling, maintaining liquidity to capitalize on opportunities, and considering hedges in energy stocks and commodities like gold and silver

The Federal Reserve urged a judge to reject prosecutors' request to reconsider his decision quashing subpoenas in a criminal investigation of Chair Jerome Powell over cost overruns in Fed headquarters renovations. Judge James Boasberg had ruled the probe appeared motivated by Powell's refusal to cut interest rates as President Trump demanded. The Fed argues prosecutors failed to meet the legal threshold for reconsideration.

• Judge Boasberg blocked subpoenas after finding 'abundant evidence' their purpose was to harass Powell into yielding to Trump's rate-cut demands or resigning
• Prosecutors cite $1.2 billion in renovation cost overruns but admitted 'we do not know' of any evidence of fraud when questioned by the judge
• The Fed's independent Inspector General audited the renovation years ago and raised no concerns about fraud, undermining the criminal probe's justification

The OECD warned that US inflation could surge to 4.2% in 2025 if the Iran conflict continues, driven by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting oil supplies and compounding inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs. This would represent a 1.6 percentage point increase from 2024's 2.6% rate and mark the highest inflation among OECD member countries.

• US GDP growth is expected to slow to 2% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, down from 2.1% in 2024, as higher fuel costs force households to cut spending elsewhere
• Global GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 2.9% in 2026 from 3.3% in 2024, erasing earlier optimistic forecasts made before the Iran conflict began
• The OECD's 4.2% US inflation forecast exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2.7% projection because it assumes longer-term price impacts from the war and tariffs rather than a temporary shock

President Donald Trump claimed that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this week as a 'present' to the United States, signaling potential progress in negotiations. The gesture comes amid ongoing conflict that has effectively closed the vital oil shipping route for nearly four weeks, with both nations presenting competing frameworks for a peace deal.

• Trump stated Iran let the tankers through to demonstrate 'we're real and solid and we're there,' though Tehran denies direct talks have taken place
• The U.S. has presented a 15-point peace framework via Pakistan as mediator, while Iran's counteroffer demands sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
• The strait, a critical oil shipping route, has been effectively closed since the conflict began nearly four weeks ago, affecting global energy supplies

Multiple high-profile FinTech companies are pausing or delaying IPO plans as public markets increasingly scrutinize transaction-based revenue models. Firms including PhonePe, and others in payments and digital assets are reassessing timing amid volatile conditions and valuation concerns. The trend reflects a strategic shift toward prioritizing profitability and predictable revenue streams before going public.

• Transaction-dependent revenue models (payments volumes, interchange fees, trading activity) are facing tougher valuation tests in public markets compared to infrastructure and AI-focused business models
• Recent pauses include Walmart-backed PhonePe halting its India IPO plans and Brazilian FinTech AGI reducing its U.S. IPO size and price range
• Private market capital continues flowing to FinTechs focused on data infrastructure and AI tools rather than volume-dependent platforms, signaling investor preference for operational stability over growth alone

President Donald Trump stated that oil price increases and stock market declines during the Iran conflict were less severe than he anticipated, expressing confidence that economic conditions will improve once the war ends. Despite his optimism, oil prices have surged over 40% during the conflict and gas prices increased by more than $1 per gallon, while the S&P 500 has fallen 4.8% in March.

• U.S. crude oil prices approached $100 per barrel during the conflict and have risen more than 40% overall, driving up gasoline prices by over $1 per gallon
• The S&P 500 has declined 4.8% in March and is down 6.5% from its record high earlier this year
• Wall Street economists have recently increased recession probability forecasts for the next 12 months, warning that prolonged conflict could cause economic contraction through inflation and oil-related impacts

US stocks declined Thursday with the Dow falling 250 points as oil prices surged 4% following President Trump's warning that Iranian negotiators 'better get serious soon' amid ongoing tensions. Brent crude jumped back above $106 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate reached $93.83, reversing earlier relief as the conflict in the Middle East enters its fourth week with no resolution in sight.

• The Dow dropped 0.5%, S&P 500 fell 0.8%, and Nasdaq declined 1.1% as geopolitical tensions escalated
• Brent crude spiked to $106.64 per barrel and WTI crude rose to $93.83, driven by Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz which transports 20% of global oil supply
• The US is deploying additional troops to the Middle East while Iran is drafting legislation to charge ships for passage through the strait, with analysts warning the S&P 500 is approaching correction territory

Wall Street bonuses reached a record $49.2 billion in 2025, up 9% from the prior year, with the average bonus hitting $246,900 as industry profits jumped over 30% to $65.1 billion. New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli emphasized that the financial sector's strong performance is crucial for state and city tax revenues, particularly as New York City faces a $12 billion budget shortfall and competition from lower-tax states like Texas and Florida.

• Average annual compensation in finance rose 7.3% to $505,677 in 2024, nearly five times the average in the rest of New York City's private sector, with bonuses comprising 42% of wages
• Wall Street drove 20.2% of all economic activity in NYC in 2024 and contributed 19.4% of state tax collections and 8.4% of city tax revenue, with the higher 2025 bonuses projected to generate an extra $199 million in state income tax and $91 million for the city
• The record bonuses come as Mayor Zohran Mamdani considers wealth taxes to address the city's $12 billion budget gap, while other states aggressively recruit financial workers with promises of lower taxes and better living standards

UBS is advising investors not to attempt market timing during the US-Iran conflict despite three consecutive days of global stock gains. The bank warns that trying to trade around geopolitical events typically destroys wealth, as missing even single best-performing days can significantly reduce long-term returns. UBS recommends maintaining diversified portfolios while diplomatic talks continue and oil prices rise.

• A $100 investment in the S&P 500 from September 1989 would have grown to $3,617 by January 2026 with buy-and-hold, but missing just the single best day would reduce returns by approximately 10%
• Brent crude oil climbed to $103.50 per barrel as the US deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region amid ongoing Middle East fighting
• UBS warns of 'action bias' causing investors to sell at lows and buy at highs, recommending gold, high-quality bonds, and hedge funds as volatility cushions instead of market exits

U.S. stock futures fell sharply on March 26, 2026, with the Nasdaq down 1% and S&P 500 down 0.9%, as oil prices surged over 4% to $94 per barrel amid an impending deadline for potential U.S. military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure. President Trump's five-day deadline expires Friday with no diplomatic progress, raising fears of further escalation that could disrupt global supply chains and amplify inflation risks.

• WTI crude oil jumped over 4% to $94/barrel as Trump's Friday deadline approaches, with the President criticizing NATO allies for 'absolutely nothing to help' and stating the U.S. 'needs nothing from NATO'
• Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since July-August 2025, with the 10-year at 4.374% and 2-year at 3.945%, reflecting increased inflation concerns
• Potential military escalation could disrupt not just oil and gas but also fertilizer, helium, polyethylene, and naphtha supplies, affecting plastic goods, electronics, and crop yields globally