Trump says oil and stock market reaction to Iran conflict not as severe as he expected

• U.S. crude oil prices approached $100 per barrel during the conflict and have risen more than 40% overall, driving up gasoline prices by over $1 per gallon
• The S&P 500 has declined 4.8% in March and is down 6.5% from its record high earlier this year
• Wall Street economists have recently increased recession probability forecasts for the next 12 months, warning that prolonged conflict could cause economic contraction through inflation and oil-related impacts

Summary

President Donald Trump stated Thursday that market reactions to the Iran conflict have been less severe than anticipated, expressing confidence that oil prices and stock values will return to previous levels or lower.

Key Market Data

Oil Markets:

• U.S. crude prices approached $100 per barrel during the conflict but have since retreated
• Overall oil price surge of more than 40% during the war
• Gasoline prices increased by over $1 per gallon

Equity Markets:

• S&P 500 down 4.8% in March
• S&P 500 off 6.5% from its earlier 2026 record high
• Dow Jones Industrial Average previously crossed 50,000 in early February

Key Figures and Statements

Trump addressed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a Cabinet session, noting oil prices "have not gone up as much as I thought." The president predicted economic damage would reverse once the conflict ends, stating "my predictions have been right."

Market Implications

Wall Street economists have recently increased recession probability estimates for the next 12 months. Most analysts warn that prolonged conflict could trigger economic contraction through inflation pressures and oil-related impacts.

The president has emphasized these metrics—oil prices and stock market performance—as benchmarks for economic success, having previously criticized former President Biden over elevated gas prices during his administration.

Outlook

Trump maintains confidence the war will end soon, with markets recovering to pre-conflict levels. However, economists caution that sustained conflict could produce more severe economic consequences than currently observed.