General Market News

The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department's final estimate, exceeding economist expectations of 3.3% and marking the fastest growth pace in two years. Combined with second quarter growth of 3.8%, the economy is showing strong momentum despite a first quarter contraction.

• Third quarter GDP growth of 4.4% significantly beat expectations of 3.3%, representing the strongest quarterly expansion in two years
• The economy grew at a 2.5% annualized rate through the first three quarters of 2025, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction in Q1
• Second quarter GDP was revised to show 3.8% annualized growth, indicating sustained economic momentum in mid-2025

EU lawmakers have scaled back threats of trade countermeasures after President Trump canceled planned tariffs on eight European nations over their stance on Greenland. Despite Trump's apparent retreat, EU officials are demanding clarity on his Greenland intentions and proceeding with an emergency summit in Brussels to assess the situation.

• Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament's international trade committee, stated EU countermeasures worth 93 billion euros ($108 billion) on U.S. imports are 'on hold' rather than 'off the table' and may be prolonged for months
• Trump announced a 'framework' or 'concept of a deal' with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte regarding Greenland, though details remain unclear
• EU leaders emphasized that any Greenland deal should be decided by Denmark and Greenland's people, not between Trump and NATO officials, and will seek direct contact with U.S. counterparts for greater certainty

U.S. stock markets reached all-time highs last week with the S&P 500 approaching 7,000, but investor confidence was rattled by President Trump's threats of tariffs against European allies and concerns over Federal Reserve independence. Markets recovered somewhat after Trump ruled out military action over Greenland during his Davos address. Uncertainty remains as Trump pursues interventionist economic policies and criticizes Fed Chair Jerome Powell ahead of his May departure.

• The S&P 500 fell 3% for the week, breaking below 6,800, as Trump threatened tariffs on eight countries including the UK over Greenland dispute, though markets rallied after he ruled out military force
• Trump's interventionist policies include capping credit card interest rates at 10%, directing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases, and taking a government stake in Intel
• Kevin Warsh is now the frontrunner to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May, potentially leading to significant changes at the Fed including reduced quantitative easing and increased market volatility

President Trump's retreat from threatened tariffs on eight European countries sparked a global market rally and revived investor talk of the 'TACO trade' ('Trump Always Chickens Out'). Trump walked back the tariffs after claiming a 'concept of a deal' over Greenland at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Wall Street and global equities rebounded after sharp sell-offs earlier in the week.

• Trump had threatened tariffs starting at unspecified levels on eight European countries, set to rise to 25% from June 1, before backing down following market turbulence
• The 'TACO trade' strategy emerged after Trump's April 2025 'liberation day' tariff announcement, when investors learned to anticipate presidential walk-backs after initial market shocks
• While markets rallied, some analysts noted lingering caution with gold holding gains and investors maintaining 'safety elements' in portfolios, suggesting uncertainty about lasting policy changes

Global markets rebounded Thursday after President Trump reversed course on Greenland tariffs, though uncertainty lingers about policy volatility. The S&P 500 rose 1.16% in its biggest gain in two months, while European stocks climbed over 1% and the VIX fear gauge declined from year-to-date highs. Markets now await Fed inflation data and corporate earnings including Intel.

• Trump struck a deal with NATO on Greenland that removes the February 1 tariff threat, though details remain sparse and the agreement will not involve a U.S. takeover of the territory
• Gold remains elevated above $4,800 per ounce despite slipping from Wednesday's all-time high of $4,887.82, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions
• The Supreme Court signaled it would not support Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with justices noting that easy dismissals would 'weaken, if not shatter' Fed independence

President Trump is facing declining approval ratings as his campaign promises to lower grocery, energy, and housing costs have failed to materialize during his first year back in office. In response, he has proposed a flurry of often incoherent economic policies aimed at signaling solidarity with struggling voters, ranging from credit card interest rate caps to 50-year mortgages. Economists warn many of these proposals could backfire or are detached from economic reality.

• Food and energy prices have risen faster under Trump than during Biden's last year in office, with household energy costs up 7.3% - more than twice Biden's rate
• Recent polling shows 49% of Americans think the economy is worse than a year ago, while 54% disapprove of Trump's economic stewardship and 61% disagree with his economic policies
• Proposed solutions like capping credit card interest rates and extending mortgages to 50 years may harm the intended beneficiaries by restricting credit access and increasing long-term housing costs

Top business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos delivered forceful defenses of climate action amid growing political backlash against net zero commitments. Executives from Allianz, Fortescue, and other major firms criticized short-term thinking on climate policy, particularly as the Trump administration promotes fossil fuels and questions renewable energy investments. The debate highlights deepening divisions between business leaders committed to energy transition targets and political leaders retreating from green policies.

• Allianz CEO Oliver Bäte called short-term opposition to net zero 'bulls---' and emphasized his company has reduced energy consumption by over 40%, maintaining its 2050 net zero target despite political pressure.
• Fortescue chairman Andrew Forrest argued that 'renewable energy is eating fossil fuels for lunch' due to declining costs and rising technology capabilities, criticizing net zero offsets as 'rubbish' while advocating for 'real zero' by 2040.
• President Trump attacked EU energy policy during his Davos speech, claiming wind turbines 'destroy land and lose money,' while EU Climate Commissioner Hoekstra countered that 'the physics of the planet doesn't give a damn' about political rhetoric.

European markets are set to open significantly higher Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 'framework' agreement involving Greenland and called off planned escalating tariffs on European countries. The vague deal, described by Trump as more of a 'concept,' reportedly involves U.S.-European collaboration on a missile defense system and access to Greenland's resources.

• Major European indices expected to surge at open: UK up 0.8%, Germany up 1.3%, France up 1.2%, and Italy up 1.5%
• Trump's Greenland 'framework' involves proposed collaboration on a Golden Dome missile defense system and resource access, though he admitted specifics are 'a little bit complex'
• Uncertainty remains over the EU-U.S. trade deal's future after European lawmakers voted on the agreement reached last year

European business leaders are urging the EU to consider retaliatory measures, including the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), in response to President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on EU nations starting February 1. The EU has frozen its trade deal with the U.S. as tensions escalate over Trump's tariff threats, which business groups characterize as 'blackmail.' Leaders warn the economic impact could be significant, with potential costs reaching billions for affected European businesses.

• Trump has threatened 10% tariffs on six EU nations plus the UK and Norway starting Feb. 1, potentially rising to 25% in June if countries resist his Greenland plans
• Analysis shows 10% U.S. tariffs could cost UK businesses £6 billion initially, rising to £15 billion ($20 billion) if tariffs increase to 25% in June
• German business associations representing millions of companies warn that over half of exported machinery could be affected, with mechanical engineering already facing 50% levies on steel and aluminum

The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on President Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with justices expressing concern that allowing the removal could undermine Fed independence and pose economic risks. Conservative justices, including Trump appointees Kavanaugh and Barrett, questioned whether making removals too easy would give presidents unchecked power to influence monetary policy. The case tests the balance between presidential authority and the century-old principle of central bank independence from political pressure.

• Justice Kavanaugh warned that the administration's position of 'no judicial review, no process required' for removal could 'weaken, if not shatter, the independence of the Federal Reserve'
• Trump fired Cook (appointed by Biden in 2022 with a term until 2038) citing unproven mortgage fraud allegations, which Cook calls a pretext for their monetary policy disagreements over interest rate cuts
• Justice Barrett noted economists filed briefs warning Cook's removal could trigger a recession, pressing the administration on economic consequences while emphasizing judges shouldn't 'be in the business of predicting exactly what the market's going to do'

US stock futures advanced on January 22, 2026, driven by a weaker Japanese yen and easing US-EU trade tensions. Slower Japanese export growth (5.1% year-on-year in December, down from 6.1% in November) reduced expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike, weakening the yen and boosting risk appetite. Traders are now focused on upcoming US labor data, Core PCE inflation, and Q4 GDP figures, along with the BoJ's policy decision on Friday.

• Japanese exports to the US fell 11.1% year-on-year in December (versus 8.8% in November), cooling BoJ rate hike expectations and weakening the yen to 158.431 against the dollar.
• US economists forecast initial jobless claims to rise to 212k (from 198k), Core PCE inflation at 2.8% year-on-year, and Q4 GDP growth accelerating to 4.3% quarter-on-quarter from 3.3% in Q3.
• Technical indicators show all three major US index futures trading above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, with Dow Jones targeting 50,000, Nasdaq 100 eyeing 26,000, and S&P 500 aiming for 7,036 resistance levels.

President Trump announced he will not impose tariffs on eight European countries after reaching a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte regarding Greenland and the Arctic region. Trump had threatened 10% tariffs starting February 1, rising to 25% in June, on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland after they deployed troops to Greenland.

• Trump canceled planned tariffs of 10% (Feb 1) escalating to 25% (June 1) on eight NATO allies that had deployed troops to Greenland in solidarity with Denmark
• The framework deal was reached with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, with VP JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and special envoy Steve Witkoff tasked to carry out negotiations
• Trump stated at the World Economic Forum that he 'won't use force' to acquire Greenland, walking back earlier suggestions that military action was on the table

President Trump signed an executive order to restrict Wall Street investors from purchasing single-family homes to improve housing affordability. However, investors warn the policy could backfire by increasing demand without addressing supply constraints, potentially driving home prices higher instead of lowering them.

• Housing prices have risen roughly 75% since 2016, more than double the overall CPI increase, though growth slowed to just 1.7% year-over-year in October 2024
• Wall Street firms own only about 3% of all single-family rental homes as of June 2022, and some like Blackstone have been net sellers for the past decade
• Experts argue affordability is a supply problem, not a demand issue, and federal policy has limited impact since housing regulations are mostly controlled by local governments

President Donald Trump gave an interview to CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, discussing major policy initiatives including a framework deal on Greenland, a proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap, and blocking institutional investors from buying single-family homes. The wide-ranging conversation covered domestic affordability measures, Federal Reserve leadership, and U.S. response to Iran protests.

• Trump announced a 'concept of a deal' with NATO on Greenland involving Arctic security, mineral rights, and the 'Golden Dome,' with European tariffs suspended; he said the framework will last 'forever'
• The president confirmed he has likely selected the next Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell (whose term ends in May), narrowing candidates to 'maybe one' in his mind from an initial field including Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller
• Trump doubled down on his proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, calling current 28% rates too high and noting even Senator Elizabeth Warren 'was very happy' with the plan

President Trump announced he has reached a framework agreement with NATO on Greenland and the Arctic region, and will pause tariffs scheduled for February 1st as a result. The announcement triggered a positive market response, with major indices gaining 1-2%. Trump provided few specifics but described the timeline as 'infinite' while speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

• The Dow Jones climbed 589 points (1.2%) to 49,077, the S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 6,876, and the Russell 2000 led gains with a 2% jump to 2,697
• Trump stated the agreement will benefit 'the United States of America, and all NATO Nations' and mentioned discussions about 'The Golden Dome as it pertains to Greenland'
• VP JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff were named as key negotiators reporting directly to Trump

The U.S. housing market shifted decisively in favor of buyers in December 2024, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 47.1%, the largest gap since records began in 2013. The buyer count fell 5.9% month-over-month to 1.34 million, the lowest level on record, while sellers declined only 1.1% to 1.97 million. Despite increased negotiating power for buyers, high housing costs and economic uncertainty continue to drive potential buyers out of the market.

• The market has been classified as a 'buyer's market' (over 10% more sellers than buyers) since May 2024, though high borrowing costs limit affordability for most potential buyers
• Buyer-seller imbalance jumped 22.2% year-over-year and 7.1% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly increase since September 2022
• Austin, Texas showed the most extreme buyer's market with 128% more sellers than buyers, followed by Fort Lauderdale (125%) and Nashville (111%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently approached the psychologically significant 50,000 level for the first time, while the S&P 500 nears 7,000. Historical analysis shows that while both indexes often experience short-term weakness after approaching major round-number milestones, they typically deliver strong positive returns over longer timeframes of 3-12 months.

• The Dow has been positive in all nine previous instances six months after first approaching major 10,000-point increment levels, despite short-term weakness (7 of 10 two-week periods were negative)
• The S&P 500 shows stronger immediate performance than the Dow near round numbers, with 67% positive two-week returns averaging 1.33% after approaching 1,000-point milestones
• All 13 previous S&P 500 signals at major round numbers produced positive one-year returns, averaging over 16%, suggesting these levels act more as catalysts than resistance points long-term

President Trump announced he has nearly finalized his choice to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, narrowing a candidate pool that once included 11 people down to 'maybe one' in his mind. The selection comes amid ongoing tensions between Trump and the Fed, including threats to fire Powell and a Supreme Court hearing on presidential authority over the central bank. Key finalists reportedly include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder.

• Trump declined to name his preferred candidate but indicated the search that began in September has narrowed from 11 candidates to approximately one finalist
• National Economic Council chief Kevin Hassett has likely been eliminated from contention as Trump prefers he remain in his current role
• Powell's removal as Fed chair appears nearly certain, though he could potentially stay on as a governor for another two years, maintaining influence over monetary policy decisions

President Trump announced he will not impose tariffs on European allies scheduled for February 1st after reaching a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte regarding Greenland and the Arctic region. The tariff threats targeted European countries that defended Greenland's sovereignty amid Trump's efforts to acquire the island.

• Trump posted on Truth Social that the framework deal involves Greenland and the entire Arctic region, calling it potentially 'a great one' for the U.S. and all NATO nations
• The tariffs were originally scheduled to take effect on February 1st and targeted European nations that opposed Trump's Greenland acquisition push
• Additional discussions are ongoing concerning 'The Golden Dome' as it relates to Greenland, though details were not specified

U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew threatened tariffs on multiple nations scheduled for February 1st after reaching a framework deal with NATO regarding Greenland's future. The announcement, made after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Davos, triggered a sharp rally in U.S. stocks and eased geopolitical concerns among investors.

• U.S. stocks surged with the S&P 500 gaining 1.4% while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 4.2 basis points to 4.255%
• Market analysts characterized the situation as 'escalate to de-escalate,' noting the tariff threat had shaken investor complacency and raised tail risks
• Investors broadly viewed the specific deal details as less important than the removal of immediate tariff and military action risks