Nasdaq and S&P 500 set to open lower as oil prices surge as Iran deadline nears

• WTI crude oil jumped over 4% to $94/barrel as Trump's Friday deadline approaches, with the President criticizing NATO allies for 'absolutely nothing to help' and stating the U.S. 'needs nothing from NATO'
• Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since July-August 2025, with the 10-year at 4.374% and 2-year at 3.945%, reflecting increased inflation concerns
• Potential military escalation could disrupt not just oil and gas but also fertilizer, helium, polyethylene, and naphtha supplies, affecting plastic goods, electronics, and crop yields globally

Market Summary: US Equities Set to Fall as Iran Deadline and Oil Prices Pressure Markets

Key Market Movements:

US stock futures pointed to sharp declines Thursday morning, with Nasdaq futures down 1%, S&P 500 futures falling 0.9%, and Dow futures dropping 0.8%. This would reverse all gains from the previous session when the Nasdaq closed at 21,929 points (+0.8%), the Dow at 46,429 points (+0.7%), and the S&P at 6,591 points (+0.5%).

Primary Catalyst:

WTI crude oil surged over 4% to $94 per barrel as President Trump's five-day deadline for military strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure approaches expiration on Friday. Trump criticized NATO allies for providing "absolutely nothing to help" and stated "the USA needs nothing from Nato."

Market Implications:

Government bonds rose, with the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.374% and the 2-year at 3.945%—both at levels not seen since July-August 2025. Analysts warn that escalation could trigger far-reaching consequences including surges in oil and gas prices, disruptions to food and supply chains, and amplified inflation risks. Beyond energy, blockages are driving higher prices for fertilizer, helium, polyethylene, and naphtha, affecting plastic goods, electronics, and crop yields.

Economic Data Ahead:

Today's calendar includes initial and continuing jobless claims, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity data, and commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers Lisa Cook, Stephan Miran, Philip Jefferson, and Michael Barr. Trump appointee Miran has signaled the Fed will look through short-term inflation pressures, though analysts doubt the broader committee shares this optimism.

Market participants remain in "uneasy balance," watching for potential de-escalation signals from Washington.