Don't try to time the market during the Iran conflict, UBS tells investors

• A $100 investment in the S&P 500 from September 1989 would have grown to $3,617 by January 2026 with buy-and-hold, but missing just the single best day would reduce returns by approximately 10%
• Brent crude oil climbed to $103.50 per barrel as the US deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region amid ongoing Middle East fighting
• UBS warns of 'action bias' causing investors to sell at lows and buy at highs, recommending gold, high-quality bonds, and hedge funds as volatility cushions instead of market exits

Summary

Key Development: UBS is advising investors against attempting to time the market during the ongoing Iran conflict, warning that trading around geopolitical events typically destroys wealth rather than protecting it.

Market Context: Global stocks rose for three consecutive days through Wednesday, March 26, 2026, as US-Iran diplomatic talks showed progress. However, Iran initially rejected a 15-point US ceasefire proposal, and fighting continues in the Middle East. The US deployed approximately 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region.

Energy Markets: Brent crude oil climbed to $103.50 per barrel during Asian trading Thursday. UBS cautioned against assuming quick normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though the bank doesn't expect lasting economic damage in its central scenario.

Investment Data: UBS presented compelling evidence for buy-and-hold strategies: a $100 investment in the S&P 500 from September 1989 would have grown to $3,617 by January 2026. Missing just the single best trading day over that period would have reduced returns by approximately 10%. Markets' strongest sessions typically occur within weeks of their sharpest declines, meaning investors who sell during downturns often miss recoveries.

Recommendations: UBS warns against "action bias"—the impulse to act during crises—which leads to selling low and buying high. The bank recommends maintaining well-diversified portfolios and using gold, high-quality bonds, capital preservation strategies, and hedge funds to manage volatility while maintaining long-term market exposure.

Market Reaction: European and US equity futures were lower on Thursday morning.