General Market News

Kazakhstan froze assets and transport of North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), operator of the Kashagan oil field, over non-payment of a nearly $5 billion environmental fine. NCOC is a joint venture including Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and China's CNPC. The company rejects the fine related to alleged sulphur storage limit breaches, and the case is currently in court.

• The asset freeze was imposed on July 21, though specific affected assets and vehicles were not detailed in the justice ministry database
• Kazakhstan is seeking to enforce a 2.3 trillion tenge ($4.84 billion) fine against NCOC for alleged environmental violations involving sulphur storage limits
• NCOC and its contractors deny the allegations and are contesting the case in court

Pre-market trading showed signs of recovery on Friday, July 24, 2026, after major indexes dropped Thursday amid ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict (13 consecutive days of bombing). Oil prices retreated from recent highs, with Brent crude falling 3% to $97/barrel after briefly crossing $100, while bond yields remained elevated at multi-year highs for Trump's second term.

• Brent crude dropped 3% to $97/bbl and WTI to $89/bbl after Thursday's spike above $100 triggered market selloff; Iran rejected Iraq-brokered cease-fire
• Bond yields hit highest levels of Trump's second term: 10-year at 4.68% and 2-year at 4.33%, signaling ongoing economic concerns
• Major Q2 earnings beats reported: American Express ($4.53 EPS), SLB ($0.55 EPS up 4 cents), while NextEra Energy and Verizon posted mixed results; S&P flash PMI and New Home Sales data expected after open

US new home sales increased 1.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 units, ending a two-month decline. However, rising mortgage rates and elevated prices continue to constrain the housing market recovery and discourage potential buyers.

• The median new home price fell 2.7% year-over-year to $398,300 in June, reflecting market pressures
• The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.58%-6.69%, the highest level in 11 months, with rates rising 0.60 percentage points since late February
• Bond markets are pricing in nearly 100% probability of Fed rate hikes by September as inflation runs at roughly twice the Fed's 2% target

Rising oil prices, which hit $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, and climbing Treasury yields reaching 4.71% are raising concerns among investors that the U.S. stock market rally could be threatened. The surge in yields has intensified fears that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates to combat inflation, potentially making stocks less attractive and increasing borrowing costs for companies.

• US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.71%, the highest since January 2025, with investors viewing 4.75%-5% as critical thresholds that could significantly hurt stock valuations
• Fed funds futures are pricing in approximately two 25-basis-point rate hikes by year-end, though some strategists see this as too aggressive given current economic data
• Higher interest rates threaten AI-driven capital expenditure plans by major tech companies (hyperscalers), as increased borrowing costs could make planned investments less attractive

Major U.S. stock indices are attempting to recover after Thursday's decline, with buyers defending the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) support level across all three indices. Pre-market trading on Friday showed signs of stabilization, potentially aided by falling Treasury yields which typically benefit equity markets, particularly technology stocks.

• The Nasdaq 100 dropped to 28,497 after retreating from 30,000, piercing the 28,500 support level before stabilizing near its 50-day EMA
• The Dow Jones 30 showed the most strength, trading positively at 51,892 and approaching 52,000 resistance while maintaining its 45-degree uptrend channel
• The S&P 500 at 7,433 pierced its ascending triangle pattern and is testing critical 50-day EMA support, lagging behind the other indices

Wall Street futures pointed to a tentative recovery on Friday after tech stocks lost roughly $800 billion in market value during Thursday's selloff. The Magnificent Seven tech giants led the decline following disappointing earnings from Tesla and Alphabet, while new US tariffs covering over 99% of goods imports took effect, raising the average statutory tariff rate to 12.8%.

• The Nasdaq tumbled 2.2% to 25,138 on Thursday, marking the worst session for the Mag-7 since the original 'tariff tantrum,' while the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Dow dropped 507 points
• New Section 301 tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% took effect Friday, designed to enforce 'forced labour' import restrictions and pushing the average statutory tariff rate to 12.8%
• Oil prices reached a seven-week high of $93.5 per barrel before easing to $89.8, driven by Red Sea security concerns and tanker rerouting, reigniting inflation worries and pushing Treasury yields to yearly highs

The European Union sanctioned cryptocurrency exchange HTX on Thursday as part of efforts to restrict Russia's ability to evade financial sanctions. HTX, formerly known as Huobi and one of the world's largest crypto platforms, was among 18 companies accused of helping Russians circumvent sanctions. The EU action follows a similar UK sanction in May, though the EU measure does not include an asset freeze.

• HTX was founded in China in 2013 and is backed by Hong Kong billionaire Justin Sun, who acquired a stake in 2022
• The UK first sanctioned HTX in May 2025, marking the first time such a major crypto exchange faced sanctions, sending shockwaves through the industry
• The EU's sanction does not amount to a full designation with asset freeze, distinguishing it from the UK's more comprehensive measures

U.S. stock futures rose on Friday, with Dow futures up 275 points (0.5%), driven by Intel's strong earnings that beat expectations and eased concerns about AI spending costs. The gains were tempered by new U.S. tariffs on 60 trading partners and ongoing worries about technology sector valuations following disappointing results from Alphabet and Tesla. Markets are awaiting July business activity data and the Federal Reserve's next policy decision.

• Intel reported Q2 revenue up 25% to $16.13 billion, beating expectations with 42 cents per share earnings, and raised 2026 capital spending to $20 billion, signaling sustained AI-driven server demand
• New tariffs of 10-12.5% imposed on 60 countries to replace expiring temporary tariffs, though exemptions for oil, gas, and selected food products limited immediate market impact
• Oil prices retreated with Brent crude falling below $100, but remain up double-digits weekly due to Red Sea shipping threats; Oracle secured a Pentagon software deal worth $3.31-6.99 billion

Asia spot LNG prices rose for a fifth consecutive week to a four-month high of $22/mmBtu, driven by fears of widening Middle East shipping disruptions. Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers have extended risks beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb strait, threatening global LNG flows and raising long-term price forecasts.

• The Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries a fifth of global LNG flows, has seen shipping fall to 'extremely low levels' as many shippers pause dark transits amid U.S.-Iran tensions
• Kpler revised its outlook to a prolonged crisis scenario, forecasting Qatar's LNG exports to fall below 27 million tons in 2026 and JKM prices to average $19.50/mmBtu in H2 2026, up from $14.60/mmBtu in previous de-escalation forecasts
• Europe must compete with Asia for spot LNG cargoes to improve storage levels ahead of winter, though current gas stocks remain 'well below a reassuring level' despite slow increases

U.S. markets fell to multi-week lows as major tech companies face unprecedented cash burn from AI infrastructure spending, while crude prices spike due to escalating Middle East conflicts disrupting critical shipping routes. Alphabet reported negative free cash flow for the first time ever and raised 2026 capex by $15 billion, while Tesla also returned to cash-burn mode, signaling potential strain on the AI investment boom.

• The four major U.S. hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) could collectively spend more on capex than they generate in free cash flow by 2027 if current spending continues, per LSEG estimates
• Middle East energy supply faces severe disruption as Yemen's Houthi militia targets Saudi vessels in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the primary workaround after Strait of Hormuz closure following U.S.-Israeli war with Iran on February 28
• Japan's yen hit multi-year lows against the dollar as the country faces particular vulnerability to energy inflation, importing 90% of its energy with 95% previously sourced from the Middle East

Japan has secured alternative crude oil supplies for August 2026 equivalent to 100% of last year's average monthly consumption, according to Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa. The announcement comes amid Middle East disruptions, including Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea that threaten key energy shipping routes. Japan is diversifying its crude sources across Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Central Asia, and Africa to reduce reliance on Middle East supplies.

• Japan holds oil reserves equivalent to 203 days of consumption as of July 21, with no additional stockpile releases planned for July after none in May and June
• Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, raising concerns over energy shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a critical chokepoint
• Japan's ministry launched a working group to strengthen energy resilience, examining measures including diversifying crude sources, adapting refineries for varied feedstocks, and reviewing the national oil reserve system

Oil prices fell approximately 4% on Friday but remained on track for a 10% weekly gain as escalating U.S.-Iran conflict fueled market concerns. Brent crude traded at $96.72 per barrel while WTI stood at $89.06, with President Trump signaling consideration of a 'massive attack' on Iran larger than previous strikes. The conflict has rebuilt significant geopolitical risk premium into oil markets due to threats around key shipping routes including the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.

• Brent crude heading toward 9.7% weekly gain at $96.72/barrel, while WTI up 8% for the week at $89.06/barrel despite Friday's 4% decline
• U.S. Central Command completed 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian military targets, with Trump stating Iran has not 'received enough pain yet' and considering unprecedented large-scale attack
• Growing instability around Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes has created sizeable geopolitical risk premium, though UBS expects Brent to fall to $85/barrel by year-end as market may be overestimating recovery timeline

CiDi, a Hong Kong-listed Chinese autonomous mining equipment maker, is expanding internationally with deployments in Australia and pursuing contracts in the Middle East, South America, and Europe. The company expects overseas markets to contribute double-digit revenue percentage next year, up from low single digits currently. CiDi operates an 'asset-light' model by selling hardware and software directly to mine operators rather than operating truck fleets itself.

• CiDi's revenue more than doubled to 884.8 million yuan ($130.6 million) last year, with deployments growing 374% in China versus 73% industry-wide growth
• China now leads globally with roughly 10% of mining trucks driverless; CiDi operates over 1,700 autonomous vehicles across 30 quarries and coal mines, mostly in China
• The company is developing robotic explosive-hauling and drilling machines for dangerous mining operations, expected to launch in Q3 2026 and early 2027, particularly targeting Shanxi and Inner Mongolia following fatal mining accidents

President Donald Trump announced a voluntary pledge by tech companies and power producers to fund energy infrastructure for AI-related power needs without raising consumer electricity costs. Consumer advocacy groups and critics have dismissed the non-binding commitment as an empty promise ahead of November midterm elections, as residential electricity prices are predicted to rise 5.1% in 2026 and data center demand strains the power grid.

• Data centers accounted for nearly 40% ($6.3 billion) of grid operator PJM's capacity charges in its latest auction, costs that ultimately appear on customer bills
• Average annual residential electricity prices are forecast to increase 5.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 before inflation, according to the Energy Information Administration
• Critics called the pledge a 'pinky promise' with no enforcement mechanisms, while Trump granted tech companies the right to build their own power plants to meet AI infrastructure demands

U.S. stock markets face a critical week with a Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and major tech earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon following disappointing results from Alphabet. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, but rising oil prices and persistent inflation above 2% have created uncertainty, with markets pricing in a 36% chance of a surprise rate hike under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

• About one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, the busiest of Q2 season, with profits tracking toward a 26.5% year-over-year increase, though Alphabet's disappointing results have raised concerns about AI spending returns
• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.7%, its highest since early 2025, while Brent crude reached multi-month highs due to Middle East tensions, both factors pressuring the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance
• Fed funds futures price in two quarter-point rate hikes by January 2027, and investors will scrutinize Chair Warsh's press conference for guidance despite his tendency to avoid forward guidance

The European Commission has charged TikTok with breaching EU Digital Services Act rules by failing to protect minors from potential predators and cyberbullying through inadequate safety features. This marks the fourth allegation against TikTok in two years under EU tech regulations. The company faces potential fines of up to 6% of its global annual turnover if found guilty.

• EU regulators claim TikTok allows children to make accounts public and enables them to be easily found even by non-users through 'following' and 'followers' lists, exposing them to potential abuse
• The Commission demands that TikTok change default settings so minors' content is only visible to users they have accepted, rather than making safety an 'opt-in' feature
• TikTok defends its practices, stating that under-18 accounts are private by default and teen accounts have over 50 preset privacy and safety features, with younger teens unable to use direct messaging

U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on Friday after the 10-year yield briefly surged above 4.7% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since January 15, 2025. The retreat follows inflationary concerns triggered by Brent crude oil climbing above $100 per barrel and escalating Middle East tensions, as President Trump announced he is considering a 'massive attack' on Iran.

• The 10-year Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.693% after hitting 4.7% the previous day, while the 2-year yield dropped nearly 2 basis points to 4.333%
• Weekly jobless claims came in at 187,000, significantly below the expected 212,000, indicating continued labor market strength
• Geopolitical risk remains elevated as Trump stated he is 'close to making a decision' on launching strikes against Iran bigger than anything seen in the conflict so far

Euro zone consumers lowered their inflation expectations in June, according to an ECB survey, with 12-month inflation expectations dropping to 3.0% from 3.5% in May. The decline was likely driven by a temporary Middle East truce that reduced energy prices, though this relief proved short-lived.

• Median 12-month inflation expectations fell to 3.0% in June from 3.5% in May, marking a significant monthly decrease
• Three-year inflation expectations declined slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%, while five-year expectations remained steady at 2.4%
• The improvement was attributed to temporarily lower energy prices from a Middle East truce, though the survey notes this truce was short-lived

Euro zone companies are unable to pass higher fuel costs to consumers following Iran-related oil price shocks, according to an ECB survey of 76 large firms. Price-sensitive households and intense competition from Chinese manufacturers are squeezing corporate margins, with about 40% of companies reporting compressed profitability. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, noting that fuel cost increases have not spread to broader inflation.

• Around 40% of firms reported squeezed margins as they cannot raise consumer prices despite costs rising 20-30% for some intermediate goods like petrochemicals
• Chinese competition is intensifying, with manufacturers offering innovative products at low prices while consumer electronics prices fall due to cheaper Asian imports
• European firms are shifting investment away from the euro zone toward Asia and eastern Europe due to competitiveness concerns, though AI-related spending remains strong

Wise shares fell 10% after U.S. regulators denied its application to create a national trust bank, citing incompatibility with new Federal Reserve payment system access policies. The London-listed money transfer company had sought the charter to settle U.S. dollar payments directly with the Fed, but regulatory changes since its June application made this approach non-viable.

• The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency rejected Wise's application as the Federal Reserve paused account access for uninsured trust banks under new payment system policies
• Wise plans to resubmit a new application for a national trust bank charter focusing on digital assets like stablecoins
• Regulators flagged a 2023 U.S. consent order on compliance violations, though Wise says it has since strengthened its safety processes