Europe's jet fuel imports from Middle East stop, raising supply crunch fears

• OECD Europe consumes about 1.6 million bpd of jet fuel but only produces 1.1 million bpd domestically, leaving a 500,000 bpd gap that imports must fill
• Europe's total jet fuel imports are set to hit a four-year low in April as increased flows from North America and Africa fail to offset the Middle East supply halt
• The IEA warned Europe could face physical jet fuel shortages by June if it can only replace half of normal Middle East supplies; inventories are already tight at 37 days of forward cover

Europe Faces Jet Fuel Supply Crisis as Middle East Imports Halt

Key Development: Europe's jet fuel imports from the Middle East have completely stopped in April 2026 for the first time since records began in 2017, raising concerns about potential shortages ahead of peak summer travel season.

Supply-Demand Gap: OECD Europe consumes approximately 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of jet fuel but produces only 1.1 million bpd domestically, creating a 500,000 bpd shortfall that requires imports. Last year, nearly 60% of Europe's external jet fuel imports came from the Middle East, leaving the region highly exposed to current disruptions from conflict and shipping route closures.

Market Impact:

• Jet fuel prices have surged above $200 per barrel, approaching March's record high of $228/barrel
• Total European imports are at four-year lows despite increased flows from North America and Africa
• Crude oil has reached four-year highs near $120/barrel (below 2008's $147 record)
• Societe Generale forecasts EU inventories will tighten from 37 days of forward cover to approximately 30 days by year-end

Industry Response: Airlines including Wizz Air, British Airways (IAG), and suppliers like Portuguese refiner Galp have downplayed immediate shortage concerns, citing alternative sources. Sweden's energy minister warned of potential future shortages. Energy consultancy FGE NexantECA expects regional production increases to offset lower imports in Q2.

Risk Assessment: The International Energy Agency warned that physical shortages could emerge by June if Europe can only replace half of its normal Middle East supplies. European refineries are adjusting processing rates to maximize jet fuel and diesel output, though stocks may be drawn down if disruptions persist through summer.