General Market News

US stocks opened lower on Friday with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq dropping 0.4%, and Dow falling 125 points, driven by weakness in technology stocks. This occurred despite investor confidence in Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling a more dovish, market-friendly policy direction. The decline reflects growing skepticism about tech valuations and AI investment returns, even as some companies like Apple reported record earnings.

• President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor (2006-2011) considered market-friendly and dovish, as the next Federal Reserve chair, ending months of speculation about monetary policy direction.
• Microsoft shares plunged 10% despite beating earnings expectations, highlighting investor concerns about massive AI infrastructure spending without proven returns, while Apple reported record revenue of $143.8 billion, up 16% year-over-year.
• The S&P 500 is testing psychological resistance at the 7,000 level with short-term support around 6,900, as bullish sentiment (put-call ratio of 0.84) conflicts with valuation concerns during earnings season.

Stock futures pointed lower Friday as President Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when his term ends in May. Gold and silver prices tumbled sharply after reaching record highs amid recent geopolitical uncertainty, while markets digested a wave of corporate earnings reports including Apple, Sandisk, and Visa.

• Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair, replacing Jerome Powell in May, calling him potentially 'one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen' after months of interviewing candidates
• Gold futures dropped 4.6% to $5,075 per ounce and silver plunged 13% to $99.80 after hitting record highs above $5,500 and $114 respectively, as investors took profits
• Sandisk shares soared over 20% in premarket trading after beating earnings estimates and projecting strong profit growth, while Apple and Visa also topped expectations

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced he will oppose President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair until the Department of Justice's criminal investigation of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is fully resolved. This opposition could complicate the confirmation process for Warsh's nomination.

• Tillis previously vowed earlier this month to oppose any new Fed nominee until the DOJ's controversial investigation of Powell is completed
• The senator's stance creates a potential obstacle for Trump's Fed leadership transition, requiring resolution of the Powell probe before advancing Warsh's confirmation
• The DOJ criminal investigation of the sitting Fed chair represents an unprecedented development in the relationship between the executive branch and the independent Federal Reserve

US stock futures fell on Friday, with the Nasdaq down 0.5%, as investors reacted to reports that President Trump will nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. While a bipartisan agreement averted a government shutdown, Warsh's hawkish history and focus on balance sheet reduction pushed long-term yields higher and pressured commodities. The news overshadowed mixed Big Tech earnings, with Microsoft's weak cloud growth weighing on sentiment despite Apple's strong iPhone sales.

• Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance and desire to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, is expected to be nominated as Fed Chair, though he has recently supported rate cuts
• The Warsh appointment is viewed as restoring Fed independence with a 'conventional candidate,' causing gold and silver to retreat as speculative appeal for precious metals diminishes
• Congress reached a bipartisan agreement to avert a government shutdown just 48 hours before the deadline, which analysts say should benefit risk sentiment and remove a headwind for markets

President Trump announced on Friday his plan to nominate Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair when Powell's term expires in May. The nomination comes during a turbulent period for the Fed, with a Justice Department criminal probe into Powell underway and the Supreme Court considering limits on Fed independence. Warsh, a former Fed governor and Morgan Stanley banker, would take over one of the most powerful positions in U.S. economic policymaking.

• Warsh served as the youngest Fed board member in 2006 and was the Fed's key liaison to Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis before stepping down in 2011
• Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell over interest rate decisions, calling for rate cuts to save 'hundreds of billions of dollars' while Powell held rates at 4.25% to 4.5% to assess tariff impacts
• The nomination requires Senate confirmation and would give Warsh direct influence over interest rate decisions and the central bank's inflation-fighting efforts

The K-shaped economy, where wealthy Americans thrive while lower-income groups struggle, has become a permanent structural feature of the U.S. economy rather than a temporary pandemic phenomenon. Wealth concentration has hit 60-year highs, with the top 10% holding over 66% of net worth while the bottom 50% holds just 2.5%. This disparity explains diverging consumer behaviors and the political success of affordability-focused campaigns.

• The Gini coefficient measuring wealth inequality reached 60-year highs, and worker compensation as a share of GDP fell to its lowest level in over 75 years of recorded history
• The top 20% of consumers hit multidecade highs in spending outlays while the other 80% fell to new lows, with lower-income households spending less on discretionary items than in 2019
• Economists trace the K-shape's origins to the dot-com crash and Great Recession, warning that proposed federal budget cuts to Medicaid and SNAP will further intensify inequality

DAFgiving360 reported a record $9.9 billion in charitable grants from donor-advised funds in 2025, representing a 28% increase from the prior year. The surge was driven by wealthy donors accelerating contributions to take advantage of tax benefits set to expire under Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which caps and limits charitable deduction incentives starting in 2026.

• A record 74% of contributions were non-cash assets including stocks, ETFs, real estate, and cryptocurrency, allowing donors to avoid capital gains taxes while getting immediate deductions
• The 2026 tax changes reduce benefits significantly: charitable deductions are now capped at a lower rate for top earners, and itemizers can only deduct donations exceeding 0.5% of adjusted gross income
• Tax advisors encouraged clients to front-load their DAFs with 3-5 years of contributions before the tax law changes took effect, though this may shift behavior away from spontaneous 'checkbook philanthropy'

President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, ending a five-month selection process marked by unprecedented political pressure on the central bank. The nomination comes amid ongoing tensions over Fed independence, with Trump persistently criticizing Powell for not lowering interest rates aggressively enough and the Justice Department recently subpoenaing Powell over construction cost overruns.

• Warsh called for 'regime change' at the Fed in 2025 and criticized incumbent leadership's credibility, potentially signaling an adversarial approach at an institution that relies on consensus building
• Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has indicated he will block any Fed nominees until the Justice Department probe is finished, creating political hurdles for confirmation
• Powell may remain on the Fed Board as a governor for two years after his chair term ends, potentially serving as a check against efforts to compromise Fed independence, while the Supreme Court weighs Trump's authority to remove Fed board members

The U.S. dollar weakened to its lowest level since early 2022 following mixed signals from the Trump administration on currency policy, with President Trump stating the dollar would 'find its level' before Treasury Secretary Bessent offered reassurances. Markets rallied Friday after Trump named Kevin Warsh as his choice to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, as Warsh is viewed as less likely to pursue radical monetary easing than other candidates.

• The yen strengthened to roughly 152 per dollar on Tuesday, while the euro briefly surged above $1.20 for the first time in four years, though excessive euro strength could hurt EU industrial exporters and complicate ECB policy ahead of next Thursday's meeting
• Tech mega-cap earnings this week showed investors remain comfortable with massive AI spending despite mixed results from Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla
• Oil prices rose approximately 15% in January amid rising Middle East tensions and potential U.S. military action toward Iran, though crude is unlikely to break out of its narrow price band without demand improving

Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.82% to 25,786 on January 30, 2026, despite earnings beats from Apple and Sandisk, as investor concerns mounted over AI investment returns and software sector vulnerability. The Tech-Software ETF plunged 5.4% into bear market territory following Microsoft's worst single-day drop since March 2020, triggered by slower Azure growth and weak margin guidance that exposed fears about AI monetization.

• Microsoft fell over 10% after reporting Azure cloud division slowdown and soft operating margin guidance, marking its worst day since March 2020
• The Tech-Software ETF (IGV) declined 22% from recent highs, entering bear market territory as investors fear AI threatens traditional software business models
• Nasdaq 100 threatens key technical support at the 50-day moving average (25,615), with a breakdown potentially triggering further decline to January low of 25,025

Euro zone consumers raised their 5-year inflation expectations to a record high of 2.4% in December, according to an ECB survey, exceeding the central bank's 2% target. The increase of 20 basis points from November suggests households expect elevated price growth to persist despite ECB officials claiming inflation is under control. The ECB is expected to hold its policy rate at 2% amid uncertainty over U.S. economic policy under President Trump.

• Five-year inflation expectations rose to 2.4% in December, the highest since the survey began in 2022, up 20 basis points from November
• Near-term expectations remained elevated at 2.8% for 12 months ahead (unchanged) and 2.6% for three years (up from 2.5%)
• Consumer expectations now consistently exceed the ECB's 2% target across all time horizons, despite policymakers claiming they are 'in a good place' with inflation control

President Trump announced he will reveal his Federal Reserve chair nominee on Friday, with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh the leading candidate according to prediction markets. Markets reacted to mixed tech earnings, with Microsoft losing $340 billion in market value after disappointing cloud growth guidance, while Apple posted strong iPhone sales but received tepid investor response due to AI concerns.

• Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is the favorite for Fed chair according to prediction market Kalshi, with sources confirming he visited the White House on Thursday
• Microsoft stock plummeted 10% in its worst day since March 2020, erasing $340 billion in market cap due to spending plans and slowing cloud growth
• Apple reported record fiscal first-quarter revenue driven by 'staggering' iPhone demand, but investor enthusiasm was muted amid concerns the company is behind on artificial intelligence development

Bitcoin fell to a two-month low of $82,300 on Friday, down 2.5%, amid speculation that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh may be named the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh has advocated for shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, which would reduce liquidity that has historically supported speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has now lost a third of its value since peaking in October and is headed for its longest losing streak in eight years.

• Bitcoin is on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, its longest losing streak since 2018, despite initial hopes for a 'golden era' under President Trump's crypto-friendly administration
• Warsh's preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet threatens the liquidity environment that has historically benefited cryptocurrencies, prompting investors to sell speculative assets
• The crypto selloff was compounded by broader market concerns after Microsoft's AI spending report disappointed investors, with Ether also dropping 2.9% to $2,735.48

President Trump is set to announce his Federal Reserve chair nominee on Friday, with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh widely expected to get the nomination to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. The anticipated pick has already impacted markets, with the dollar rising on speculation that Warsh represents a more hawkish stance on monetary policy.

• Warsh is viewed as one of the more hawkish candidates, favoring a smaller Fed balance sheet while also supporting lower rates, creating potential tension with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy
• The nomination will be scrutinized for the candidate's ability to resist political pressure from Trump, who has publicly criticized Powell and demanded deeper interest rate cuts
• Other candidates considered included Fed Governor Christopher Waller and BlackRock's Rick Rieder, while early frontrunner Kevin Hassett is now expected to remain as White House economic adviser

US stock futures fell sharply in Asian trading on January 30, 2026, driven by concerns over AI spending returns and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. Microsoft's 10% plunge after reporting slower cloud growth reignited fears about AI investment viability, dragging down tech stocks and major index futures. Traders are now focused on upcoming US producer price data, Fed commentary, and key corporate earnings to determine near-term market direction.

• Dow Jones E-mini dropped 259 points, Nasdaq 100 E-mini fell 217 points, and S&P 500 E-mini declined 40 points during the Asian session following Microsoft's steep decline on slower cloud growth concerns
• US producer prices expected to show 2.7% year-over-year increase in December (down from 3% in November), which could support expectations for H1 2026 Fed rate cuts and boost risk assets
• Tokyo core-core inflation fell to 2.0% in January from 2.3% in December, tempering expectations for an April Bank of Japan rate hike and causing USD/JPY to rise 0.52% to 153.881

President Trump plans to announce on Friday that Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and Stanford professor, will replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Warsh accepted the position after a Thursday meeting and phone call with Trump. The selection comes after Trump considered several candidates, with BlackRock executive Rick Reider recently emerging as a top contender before being informed he would not get the appointment.

• Warsh, 55, is considered a hawk on interest rates and has been a critic of Powell for monetary policies during the Biden years that contributed to inflation
• Trump previously considered Warsh for the Fed chair position eight years ago before selecting Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May
• The decision shifted away from earlier frontrunner Kevin Hassett after top CEOs reportedly criticized him as too much of a 'cheerleader for MAGA economics' creating market instability

Indonesia's stock exchange CEO resigned after MSCI warned the market could be downgraded to frontier status due to ownership and trading transparency concerns, triggering an over $80 billion market rout. The Jakarta Composite Index fell more than 8% over two days while the rupiah hit record lows, prompting authorities to announce urgent reforms including doubling free float requirements to 15%.

• Foreign investors sold $645 million in Indonesian stocks during the two-day selloff, adding to $1 billion in prior outflows amid concerns over President Prabowo's widening fiscal deficit and increased state market involvement
• The crisis deepened investor worries following controversial appointments including the president's nephew to the central bank and the firing of respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati
• Regulators are in communication with MSCI about proposed measures and hope to resolve the transparency issues by March to avoid a downgrade that could trigger substantial systemic outflows

President Donald Trump announced Thursday evening that he will name his Federal Reserve chair nominee on Friday morning to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has emerged as the front-runner with an 86% chance according to prediction markets, after visiting the White House on Thursday. The selection process had narrowed to four candidates including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder.

• Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, jumped to 86% odds on Polymarket prediction markets after a Thursday White House visit, surpassing earlier front-runner Kevin Hassett
• The nomination comes amid controversy as the Justice Department recently began a criminal probe of Powell related to Federal Reserve building renovations, widely seen as political and potentially delaying Senate confirmation
• Trump has consistently pushed for sharply lower interest rates despite three Fed rate cuts in late 2025, and is separately attempting to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook in a case now before the Supreme Court

President Donald Trump announced he will name his pick to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday morning, ending a five-month search process. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent narrowed an initial field of 11 candidates down to four finalists. Powell's term as chair expires in May, though he could remain as a Fed governor for two more years.

• The four finalists are former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder
• Prediction markets on Kalshi now favor Warsh at 80% probability after he was reportedly at the White House on Thursday
• The selection process began in September with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent screening candidates and reducing the field from 11 to the final four

A Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City analysis found that tariffs implemented in 2025 may have cost the U.S. economy approximately 19,000 jobs per month from January to August. Employment growth slowed significantly from 170,000 jobs per month in 2024 to only 75,000 per month through August 2025, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates three times.

• Sectors with greater exposure to tariffs experienced larger declines in job growth compared to less-exposed industries
• The analysis estimates tariffs may have increased the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, with the December 2024 rate at 4.2%
• Economists noted that tariff effects are occurring alongside other workforce factors including AI emergence, aging population, and reduced immigration