General Market News

US stocks rebounded on Wednesday with the Dow gaining nearly 300 points (0.56%) as Treasury yields eased from multiyear highs reached earlier in the session. The recovery ended a three-day losing streak, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rising 0.46%, while investors weighed inflation risks from elevated oil prices above $90 per barrel and ongoing US-Iran tensions.

• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.818% during the session, its highest level since November 2023, before easing back and allowing equities to recover
• Oil prices rose nearly 1% with WTI crude settling at $91.01 and Brent at $95.63 amid escalating US-Iran conflict and energy market concerns
• Technology and semiconductor stocks led the rebound with Nvidia, Micron, and Qualcomm advancing, while small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed larger indexes as investors rotated into oversold areas

Golden Pet Brands, owner of Dr. Marty Pets, Badlands Ranch, and Ultimate Pet Nutrition, has selected banks including Morgan Stanley and Barclays for an initial public offering in New York that could occur later this year. The IPO could value the California-based pet food company at over $1 billion.

• Golden Pet Brands operates under an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) model and was spun out from brand incubator Golden Hippo in 2017
• The company's three brands have celebrity backing, including veterinarian Dr. Marty Goldstein (who has treated Oprah Winfrey's pets), actress Katherine Heigl (Badlands Ranch founder), and actor Rob Lowe (Ultimate Pet spokesperson)
• The IPO joins a wave of consumer and retail public listings this summer, including Jersey Mike's and Reformation, as the sector sees renewed IPO activity

Thoma Bravo is exploring a sale of Foundation Software, a construction software company, in a deal potentially valued at over $2 billion. The Ohio-based firm, which serves small- and midsize construction contractors, generates more than $200 million in annual revenue and over $100 million in EBITDA. William Blair is advising on the process, which has drawn interest from both private equity firms and corporate buyers.

• Foundation Software generates over $200 million in annual revenue and more than $100 million in EBITDA; Thoma Bravo acquired the company in 2020
• The sale is part of a broader trend of increased private equity software deal activity driven by improving financing markets and demand for profitable vertical software companies
• Thoma Bravo has been actively monetizing software investments, recently selling a majority stake in Command Alkon to Francisco Partners and selling Heavy Construction Systems Specialists to Nemetschek Group for over 2 billion euros

Brazilian stocks, tracked by the EWZ ETF, have surged 15% year-to-date, outpacing the Nasdaq's performance and recovering from a monthslong sell-off. Options traders are making unusually large bets on the Brazil ETF, with trading volume surging to more than six times the 30-day average on Wednesday. The rally may be linked to rising commodity prices or optimism around Brazil's upcoming October general election.

• EWZ options volume exceeded 420,000 contracts by midday Wednesday, placing it among the top-20 traded securities in the options market alongside major U.S. stocks like Alphabet
• Call options dominated trading with 400,000 calls versus less than 30,000 puts, and nearly $48 million of the $50 million in total premium traded was tied to call contracts
• Implied volatility in EWZ climbed from 0.28 to 0.39, reaching the highest level since late June, suggesting traders may be capitalizing on elevated option prices through premium-collection strategies

U.S. Treasury yields hovered near multi-year highs on Wednesday, with the 10-year note reaching 4.818% - the highest since November 2023. The bond sell-off was driven by concerns over rising energy prices fueling inflation and increasing government debt burdens, affecting sovereign debt markets globally including Japan, Germany, and Britain reaching their own multi-decade highs.

• Global bond markets under pressure: Japan's 10-year yield topped 3% for the first time in 30 years, German Bund yields hit highest level since 2011, and UK yields reached highest since 2008
• Market expectations shifted dramatically on Fed policy: probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting jumped to 64.2% from previous week's 63.4% odds of rates remaining unchanged
• Multiple factors driving yield increases: rising energy prices from Iran war disruptions, increased corporate debt issuance for AI infrastructure buildout, and PCE inflation at 3.7% - well above Fed's 2% target

New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court to resolve a dispute over which regulator has authority over prediction markets and sports-related event contracts. The request follows conflicting rulings from two federal circuit courts, with the 3rd Circuit deeming these contracts as federally-regulated 'swaps' while the 9th Circuit ruled they are not. The case will determine whether states or the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have oversight of prediction markets.

• The 3rd Circuit Court ruled in April that all event contracts are 'swaps' regulated by the CFTC, while the 9th Circuit ruled on Friday that sports-related event contracts are not CFTC-regulated swaps, creating a circuit split
• New Jersey argues that sports bets on prediction markets constitute sports betting under state purview, and that Congress did not make the sports-betting industry 'immune from state law'
• DraftKings and FanDuel's parent company both rose more than 5% following New Jersey's petition, though legal experts suggest the Supreme Court may wait until next year to hear the case

Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan has formally requested detailed information from Capital One regarding its anti-money laundering review that led to closing accounts linked to President Trump and his businesses in 2021. The request seeks documents on transactions, alerts, and communications with regulators, as Hassan argues the American people deserve transparency about the bank's decision-making process.

• Capital One claims the 2021 account closures resulted from an AML review following bank policies and regulatory guidance, while the Trump Organization and Eric Trump sued in March 2025 alleging political motivation
• The request could reveal details about Trump's business financial dealings and test his 'debanking' allegations that banks discriminate against conservatives on political grounds
• Hassan asked Capital One to identify triggering activity, explain applied policies, describe findings leading to closures, and disclose any referrals to federal or state authorities

The Dow Jones rebounded from its 50-day moving average on Wednesday after a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report (38,000 vs 47,000 expected) briefly eased Treasury yields from a 20-month high of 4.814%. However, the rally lacked conviction as oil prices remained above $90 WTI amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, keeping inflation concerns elevated ahead of Friday's crucial nonfarm payrolls report.

• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.814%, its highest level since November 2023, with bond selloffs occurring simultaneously across the U.S., Japan, U.K., and Germany
• WTI crude oil held above $90 and Brent near $95 despite the weak labor data, driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz
• Fed funds futures show 68-70% odds of a September rate increase, with Friday's payrolls report (expected 56,000 jobs) positioned as the key catalyst for market direction

US Large-Cap earnings continue to outperform with S&P 500 earnings beating expectations by 28.3%, while Small-Cap, European, and Japanese equities are showing improving earnings trends across all metrics for the first time. This marks a potential shift toward value-oriented assets, though sustained performance over multiple quarters is needed to challenge Large-Cap dominance.

• S&P 500 posted exceptional results with earnings 28.3% above expectations and year-over-year earnings growth of 49.6%, maintaining its position as the global standard
• For the first time in this analysis series, all four market segments (US Large-Cap, Small-Cap, Europe, and Japan) showed positive improvement across all three earnings principles
• Japanese equities posted 61.1% year-over-year earnings growth (exceeding US Large-Cap), driven by AI spending and weak Yen, though a strengthening Yen could undermine future export-focused earnings

U.S. factory orders rose 0.9% in July, surpassing economist expectations of 0.6%, driven primarily by a rebound in aircraft demand. Manufacturing is benefiting from AI infrastructure investment but faces headwinds from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which is straining supply chains and elevating input costs.

• Orders increased 6.5% year-over-year in July, led by a 12.7% surge in civilian aircraft orders, while computer and electronic product orders fell 1.1% month-over-month but remained up 14.3% annually
• Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (a key measure of business spending plans) were unchanged in July, revised down from an initially reported 0.2% increase
• The six-month conflict with Iran is pressuring supply chains and keeping input prices elevated, with manufacturers in an ISM survey describing the economic environment as 'annoying' due to war-related costs and import tariffs

U.S. major indices are trading near key technical support levels as elevated interest rates weigh on markets ahead of Friday's jobs report. The Nasdaq 100 is down 1.48% in premarket trading, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones show modest declines of 0.54% and 0.29% respectively. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance has raised concerns that strong jobs data could trigger further rate increases rather than cuts.

• The S&P 500 is testing support at 7,600, a former resistance level, while sitting just above its 50-day EMA
• The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.784%, keeping pressure on equities as Fed Chair Warsh signals potential for rate hikes rather than cuts
• Traders are reducing risk exposure ahead of Friday's jobs report, which could create significant volatility and determine market direction

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams attributed rising long-term bond yields to a strong U.S. economy driven by AI and technology investments, rather than inflation concerns. He emphasized the Fed's responsibility to control inflation and indicated he is still evaluating data before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where a rate hike from the current 3.5%-3.75% range is widely expected.

• Williams sees higher yields as reflecting economic strength from 'big investments in AI and data centers and technology,' not inflation fears, stating 'it's more about the economy affecting financial conditions'
• The Fed is widely expected to raise rates at its September 15-16 meeting, with Williams noting 'there's no clear science' indicating current policy will achieve the 2% inflation target
• Williams cited trade tariffs and the Middle East war as main drivers of inflation above 2%, though he noted inflation expectations remain anchored and recent data have been 'encouraging'

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams attributed the recent surge in Treasury yields to strong economic prospects rather than market dysfunction, citing investments in AI, data centers, and technology. He is taking a wait-and-see approach on whether additional interest rate hikes are necessary, stating there are no clear signs yet whether current monetary policy is sufficient to bring inflation back to target.

• Williams sees the yield surge driven by a strong U.S. economy and outlook, particularly from big investments in AI and data centers, rather than being a concern about financial conditions
• Market traders priced in approximately 66% odds of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting as of the interview
• Williams stated inflation expectations remain 'well-anchored' despite recent price increases linked to tariffs and the Iran War

The U.S. private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, falling short of the 48,000 expected by economists, according to ADP's latest employment report. The figure also represents a decline from July's revised 46,000 jobs, signaling continued softness in the labor market amid what ADP describes as 'choppy hiring' influenced by demographic changes, inflation, and AI's impact on employment.

• Construction led job creation with 45,000 new positions, while leisure and hospitality added 16,000 jobs
• Manufacturing shed 17,000 jobs and professional/business services lost 16,000 positions, representing the largest job losses by sector
• ADP's chief economist noted that wage growth patterns have become unpredictable due to demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI's effects on the job market

Private U.S. companies added only 38,000 jobs in August, below the expected 47,000 and down from July's revised 46,000, marking the slowest growth since January according to ADP. Job gains were concentrated in just three sectors while manufacturing and professional services declined, reflecting a broader labor market slowdown ahead of Friday's official BLS employment report.

• Three sectors accounted for nearly all job gains: education and health services added 45,000, leisure and hospitality added 16,000, and construction added 12,000
• Manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs and professional and business services declined by 16,000, with large companies (500+ employees) adding 34,000 while small firms (under 50 employees) added only 3,000
• Worker pay gains held steady with base pay rising 3% year-over-year for job stayers and gross pay (including tips and bonuses) increasing 4.4%, both unchanged from July

AI company Owkin has signed a licensing deal with Boehringer Ingelheim, granting the German drugmaker access to its 'K Pro' AI research platform and patient data to accelerate drug discovery for cancer and immunology diseases. This partnership follows similar deals Owkin secured with AstraZeneca in May and an expanded five-year agreement with Sanofi in June, establishing the company as a leading AI provider in pharmaceutical research.

• The agreement builds on a 2025 pilot project where Owkin used patient tumor samples and biological datasets to help Boehringer prioritize potential drug targets
• Under the deal, Owkin will license multimodal oncology data to Boehringer and generate new immunology data through its global patient data network
• Financial terms were not disclosed, but the deal expands Owkin's growing pharmaceutical client base alongside recent partnerships with AstraZeneca and Sanofi

Despite the S&P 500 trading within 1.5% of all-time highs, over two-thirds of the 100+ recent Bollinger Band signals among SPX stocks indicated oversold conditions rather than overbought. Historical analysis shows this unusual divergence leads to slight outperformance after two weeks but underperformance at one and three-month horizons.

• Since 2016, similar market conditions (SPX near highs with majority oversold signals) occurred 20 times, resulting in 2-week outperformance but underperformance at 1-month and 3-month periods due to limited upside and increased downside
• Apple stock defies typical Bollinger Band interpretation: closing above the upper band led to 4.12% average monthly gains with 74% positive returns, while closing below the lower band averaged only 1.19% with 60% positive returns
• The analysis suggests traditional 'overbought' readings at upper Bollinger Bands may actually signal bullish continuation for certain stocks like AAPL, contradicting conventional oversold/overbought interpretations

US equity futures declined as geopolitical tensions with Iran drove oil prices above $95 per barrel following US strikes. Bond yields surged, with the 10-year reaching 4.79% and the 30-year hitting 5.27%, as inflation concerns returned to markets amid the escalating conflict.

• Nasdaq futures fell 0.6% while S&P declined 0.2% on war jitters; President Trump warned of hitting Tehran 'much harder' if Iran retaliates
• Brent crude pushed above $95 per barrel after latest US strikes on Iran, adding pressure to inflation expectations
• Bond market volatility increased with 10-year Treasury yields jumping to 4.79% and 30-year yields reaching 5.27%; ADP jobs data and earnings from Broadcom, HP and Snowflake due

The U.S. Department of Energy authorized emergency measures for the PJM Interconnection grid serving 67 million people from Washington D.C. to Chicago as an intense heat wave threatens power outages across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. DOE Secretary Chris Wright approved backup generation resources to prevent blackouts as temperatures were expected to exceed 90 degrees Fahrenheit during peak demand periods.

• DOE authorized PJM to activate backup generation as a last resort before declaring a level 3 energy emergency alert, which precedes rotating blackouts
• MISO grid operator predicted Wednesday peak demand would reach about 121 gigawatts, approaching its all-time record of 127.1 GW
• Rural Missouri electric customers were asked to reduce consumption by unplugging unused devices and raising thermostats to ease strain on the grid

Britain's Serious Fraud Office, Kazakh miner ENRC, and law firm Dechert have settled a lawsuit ending a 10-year legal saga stemming from a bribery probe. ENRC had accused the SFO and Dechert of improperly causing damages during an investigation into alleged bribery in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The SFO closed its investigation in 2023 without filing criminal charges.

• ENRC sought approximately $76 million in unnecessary investigation costs and $90 million in increased borrowing costs, plus interest
• A court previously ruled the SFO would not have opened the investigation had it not induced ENRC's former Dechert lawyer to act against the miner's interests
• The settlement terms remain confidential, announced just before the High Court was set to deliver its damages ruling