General Market News

U.S. markets face a holiday-shortened week ending with Good Friday on April 3, 2026. Key economic data including retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and the employment report are scheduled for release throughout the week. Earnings reports from Nike, Cal-Maine Foods, Conagra, and McCormick will also be announced during the abbreviated trading period.

• Retail sales data and ISM manufacturing data will be released Wednesday, April 1, alongside business inventories and final S&P manufacturing PMI
• The U.S. employment report and hourly wages data are scheduled for Friday, April 3, when markets will be closed for Good Friday
• Tuesday, March 31 will feature S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI, and consumer confidence data

A recent conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has caused oil prices to surge to $100-120 per barrel due to supply disruptions in the Gulf region, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Global markets have shown relatively modest declines (S&P 500 down ~2%), suggesting investors may not have fully priced in the conflict's potential long-term economic impacts, including higher inflation and reduced growth forecasts.

• Oil supply disruptions from attacks on Iranian facilities and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed prices above $100 per barrel, with insurers refusing coverage for ships in the region
• Energy companies like BP have benefited from price increases while oil-dependent sectors like airlines face significant pressure from higher fuel costs and operational disruptions
• Analysts recommend holding positions rather than panic selling, maintaining liquidity to capitalize on opportunities, and considering hedges in energy stocks and commodities like gold and silver

The Federal Reserve urged a judge to reject prosecutors' request to reconsider his decision quashing subpoenas in a criminal investigation of Chair Jerome Powell over cost overruns in Fed headquarters renovations. Judge James Boasberg had ruled the probe appeared motivated by Powell's refusal to cut interest rates as President Trump demanded. The Fed argues prosecutors failed to meet the legal threshold for reconsideration.

• Judge Boasberg blocked subpoenas after finding 'abundant evidence' their purpose was to harass Powell into yielding to Trump's rate-cut demands or resigning
• Prosecutors cite $1.2 billion in renovation cost overruns but admitted 'we do not know' of any evidence of fraud when questioned by the judge
• The Fed's independent Inspector General audited the renovation years ago and raised no concerns about fraud, undermining the criminal probe's justification

The OECD warned that US inflation could surge to 4.2% in 2025 if the Iran conflict continues, driven by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting oil supplies and compounding inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs. This would represent a 1.6 percentage point increase from 2024's 2.6% rate and mark the highest inflation among OECD member countries.

• US GDP growth is expected to slow to 2% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, down from 2.1% in 2024, as higher fuel costs force households to cut spending elsewhere
• Global GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 2.9% in 2026 from 3.3% in 2024, erasing earlier optimistic forecasts made before the Iran conflict began
• The OECD's 4.2% US inflation forecast exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2.7% projection because it assumes longer-term price impacts from the war and tariffs rather than a temporary shock

President Donald Trump claimed that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this week as a 'present' to the United States, signaling potential progress in negotiations. The gesture comes amid ongoing conflict that has effectively closed the vital oil shipping route for nearly four weeks, with both nations presenting competing frameworks for a peace deal.

• Trump stated Iran let the tankers through to demonstrate 'we're real and solid and we're there,' though Tehran denies direct talks have taken place
• The U.S. has presented a 15-point peace framework via Pakistan as mediator, while Iran's counteroffer demands sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
• The strait, a critical oil shipping route, has been effectively closed since the conflict began nearly four weeks ago, affecting global energy supplies

Multiple high-profile FinTech companies are pausing or delaying IPO plans as public markets increasingly scrutinize transaction-based revenue models. Firms including PhonePe, and others in payments and digital assets are reassessing timing amid volatile conditions and valuation concerns. The trend reflects a strategic shift toward prioritizing profitability and predictable revenue streams before going public.

• Transaction-dependent revenue models (payments volumes, interchange fees, trading activity) are facing tougher valuation tests in public markets compared to infrastructure and AI-focused business models
• Recent pauses include Walmart-backed PhonePe halting its India IPO plans and Brazilian FinTech AGI reducing its U.S. IPO size and price range
• Private market capital continues flowing to FinTechs focused on data infrastructure and AI tools rather than volume-dependent platforms, signaling investor preference for operational stability over growth alone

President Donald Trump stated that oil price increases and stock market declines during the Iran conflict were less severe than he anticipated, expressing confidence that economic conditions will improve once the war ends. Despite his optimism, oil prices have surged over 40% during the conflict and gas prices increased by more than $1 per gallon, while the S&P 500 has fallen 4.8% in March.

• U.S. crude oil prices approached $100 per barrel during the conflict and have risen more than 40% overall, driving up gasoline prices by over $1 per gallon
• The S&P 500 has declined 4.8% in March and is down 6.5% from its record high earlier this year
• Wall Street economists have recently increased recession probability forecasts for the next 12 months, warning that prolonged conflict could cause economic contraction through inflation and oil-related impacts

US stocks declined Thursday with the Dow falling 250 points as oil prices surged 4% following President Trump's warning that Iranian negotiators 'better get serious soon' amid ongoing tensions. Brent crude jumped back above $106 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate reached $93.83, reversing earlier relief as the conflict in the Middle East enters its fourth week with no resolution in sight.

• The Dow dropped 0.5%, S&P 500 fell 0.8%, and Nasdaq declined 1.1% as geopolitical tensions escalated
• Brent crude spiked to $106.64 per barrel and WTI crude rose to $93.83, driven by Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz which transports 20% of global oil supply
• The US is deploying additional troops to the Middle East while Iran is drafting legislation to charge ships for passage through the strait, with analysts warning the S&P 500 is approaching correction territory

Wall Street bonuses reached a record $49.2 billion in 2025, up 9% from the prior year, with the average bonus hitting $246,900 as industry profits jumped over 30% to $65.1 billion. New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli emphasized that the financial sector's strong performance is crucial for state and city tax revenues, particularly as New York City faces a $12 billion budget shortfall and competition from lower-tax states like Texas and Florida.

• Average annual compensation in finance rose 7.3% to $505,677 in 2024, nearly five times the average in the rest of New York City's private sector, with bonuses comprising 42% of wages
• Wall Street drove 20.2% of all economic activity in NYC in 2024 and contributed 19.4% of state tax collections and 8.4% of city tax revenue, with the higher 2025 bonuses projected to generate an extra $199 million in state income tax and $91 million for the city
• The record bonuses come as Mayor Zohran Mamdani considers wealth taxes to address the city's $12 billion budget gap, while other states aggressively recruit financial workers with promises of lower taxes and better living standards

UBS is advising investors not to attempt market timing during the US-Iran conflict despite three consecutive days of global stock gains. The bank warns that trying to trade around geopolitical events typically destroys wealth, as missing even single best-performing days can significantly reduce long-term returns. UBS recommends maintaining diversified portfolios while diplomatic talks continue and oil prices rise.

• A $100 investment in the S&P 500 from September 1989 would have grown to $3,617 by January 2026 with buy-and-hold, but missing just the single best day would reduce returns by approximately 10%
• Brent crude oil climbed to $103.50 per barrel as the US deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region amid ongoing Middle East fighting
• UBS warns of 'action bias' causing investors to sell at lows and buy at highs, recommending gold, high-quality bonds, and hedge funds as volatility cushions instead of market exits

U.S. stock futures fell sharply on March 26, 2026, with the Nasdaq down 1% and S&P 500 down 0.9%, as oil prices surged over 4% to $94 per barrel amid an impending deadline for potential U.S. military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure. President Trump's five-day deadline expires Friday with no diplomatic progress, raising fears of further escalation that could disrupt global supply chains and amplify inflation risks.

• WTI crude oil jumped over 4% to $94/barrel as Trump's Friday deadline approaches, with the President criticizing NATO allies for 'absolutely nothing to help' and stating the U.S. 'needs nothing from NATO'
• Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since July-August 2025, with the 10-year at 4.374% and 2-year at 3.945%, reflecting increased inflation concerns
• Potential military escalation could disrupt not just oil and gas but also fertilizer, helium, polyethylene, and naphtha supplies, affecting plastic goods, electronics, and crop yields globally

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projects U.S. inflation will reach 4.2% in 2026, significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's 2.7% estimate. The upward revision is driven by the Iran war's impact on global energy markets and ongoing effects from U.S. tariffs. The OECD warns the Fed may need to take policy action if broader price pressures emerge.

• The OECD sharply raised its 2026 U.S. inflation forecast from 2.8% to 4.2%, citing prolonged higher energy prices from the Iran conflict and persistent tariff impacts on global prices
• The organization expects inflation to drop significantly to 1.6% in 2027, below the Fed's 2% target, with the Fed likely keeping rates flat through 2027
• U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2% for 2026 before slowing to 1.7% in 2027, following a sharp deceleration to 0.7% in Q4 2025

Wall Street analyst Gordon Johnson of GJL Research warned that February 2026 import and export prices rose 1.3% and 1.5% respectively, double the expected 0.6%, suggesting annualized inflation could reach 16.8% to 19.6%. Johnson urged the Federal Reserve to immediately implement 'hundreds of basis points' in interest rate hikes, stating the Fed is 'not even on the field' and warning 'this ends badly.'

• February 2026 import and export price increases occurred before the Iran war started, raising concerns about March figures following a 50% oil price surge
• Projected annualized inflation of 16.8%-19.6% would far exceed the 8% peak during the post-COVID period and the 13.5% record set in 1980
• Economist Peter Schiff echoed Johnson's alarm, warning the U.S. is 'headed for a full-blown financial crisis' without immediate rate hikes of several hundred basis points

Middle East conflict continues to roil global markets as ceasefire talks remain uncertain, with oil prices hovering around $105 per barrel for Brent crude. Asian markets fell sharply, Treasury markets showed stress after poor debt auctions, and U.S. import price inflation hit 1.3% in February, well above forecasts, even before the current energy shock.

• Oil prices remain elevated with Brent at ~$105/barrel and WTI at ~$93/barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains affected and Iran denies ceasefire negotiations
• Asian equities sold off significantly: Nikkei down 0.7%, Hang Seng fell 1.7%, and South Korea's KOSPI dropped 2.7%
• U.S. import price inflation accelerated to 1.3% annually in February (pre-oil shock), driven by food, energy, and capital goods, with core import inflation reaching 3.0%

The Trump administration is attempting to increase its influence over the Federal Reserve's bank oversight and rulemaking functions, seeking to ease post-2008 crisis regulations it claims are hindering economic growth. The effort includes a White House order requiring the Fed to submit new rules for executive review and Treasury Department pressure to accelerate deregulatory changes. These moves are testing the Fed's independence and could make its supervision more vulnerable to political and Wall Street influence, according to former officials.

• Fed officials have wrestled with a Trump executive order requiring independent regulators to submit rules for White House Budget Office review, breaking decades of precedent protecting Fed rulemaking from political interference
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Treasury will 'set policy direction and push bank regulators along,' creating tensions as Treasury increasingly tries to steer the Fed's regulatory agenda
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is leading sweeping personnel changes including hiring three banking industry executives and overseeing headcount cuts that have pushed out long-tenured career staff who historically served as a bulwark against outside influence

European missile manufacturer MBDA has invested 1 billion euros ($1.16 billion) in production without signed contracts to build weapon stockpiles ahead of demand. The company shifted from order-based production to advance manufacturing, particularly for air defense systems, as the Iran crisis intensifies pressure for accelerated weapons production.

• MBDA changed its production model from waiting for orders to building stocks of its most sought-after weapons in advance
• The company invested 1 billion euros in speculative production to keep pace with surging demand
• CEO stated the Iran crisis is further increasing the need for production ramp-up and acceleration, with additional capacity expansion under evaluation

Wall Street bonuses surged 9% to a record $49.2 billion in 2025, with the average bonus rising 6% to $246,900, according to New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli. The securities industry's profits jumped more than 30% to $65.1 billion, driven by strong trading, underwriting, and management fees despite geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related market volatility. The industry remains critical to New York, accounting for over 19% of the state's tax collections.

• Securities industry profits surged more than 30% to $65.1 billion in 2025, fueling the record bonus pool
• Average annual salary in New York's securities industry reached $505,677 in 2024, with bonuses representing approximately 42% of total compensation
• Wall Street employment showed modest decline to 198,200 workers from a 30-year high of 201,500 in 2024, though headcount data may be revised higher

European stock markets are expected to open lower on Thursday due to uncertainty surrounding Middle East peace negotiations. Conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran regarding talks have created market volatility, with the U.S. claiming negotiations are occurring while Iran denies direct interaction. The situation is compounded by Iran's rejection of a U.S. ceasefire offer and its counter-proposal seeking control over the Strait of Hormuz.

• U.K. index projected to open 0.2% lower, Germany down 0.6%, France down 0.4%, and Italy down 0.7% according to IG data
• Iranian Foreign Minister confirmed message exchanges through mediators but denied direct negotiations with the U.S., while Iran rejected U.S. ceasefire terms
• G7 foreign ministers meeting in France on Thursday and Friday will address the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, with delegations from Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, South Korea and Ukraine attending

Markets are pricing in a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran despite contradictory diplomatic signals, with Iran publicly rejecting negotiations while indirect talks reportedly continue through intermediaries. Separately, the private credit sector is showing early signs of stress, with Apollo limiting withdrawals and rising default rates triggering investor concerns about hidden risks in this fast-growing shadow lending market.

• Analyst Luke Lango predicts a formal ceasefire framework within 10-14 days and oil returning to $75 within 30 days, based on both sides finding a 'face-saving' diplomatic off-ramp involving Iranian nuclear concessions and partial asset releases.
• Apollo restricted redemptions to under half of withdrawal requests in its flagship private credit fund, while Moody's downgraded a major KKR-linked fund to junk status with a 5.5% non-accrual rate on soured loans.
• The U.S. has called up 3,000 Army paratroopers for potential Middle East deployment, creating risk of renewed escalation that could spike oil prices and reverse recent market relief rallies.

RiverFront Investment Group has revised its Iran conflict scenario probabilities three weeks into the crisis, reducing the likelihood of a 'Quick Deal' from 10% to 5% while raising 'Wider War' probability to 30%. Oil prices remain above $100/barrel with a 54% spike resembling historic oil shocks, though the firm believes the resilient US economy can weather the energy price increase if it lasts six weeks or less.

• The S&P 500 has pulled back 7% and is testing support near 6,490 in a 'decision box' range of 6,500-7,000, with shorter-horizon portfolios reducing equity exposure by roughly 7%
• The Fed kept rates unchanged with futures pricing in no cuts for 2026, a significant shift from pre-conflict expectations, while Powell signals he will serve until a government investigation concludes
• RiverFront maintains recession risk below 30% given US GDP above 2%, unemployment below 5%, and strong earnings, but would reassess if oil stays elevated for 2+ months or if 'gamechanger' events like Arab state attacks on Iran occur