Nasdaq seen rising but Dow Jones falling as Trump lands in China

• WTI crude traded near $102 per barrel amid US-Iran tensions, with reports of UAE retaliatory strikes on Iran raising concerns about broader Middle East conflict
• S&P 500 forward earnings surged 2.5% in the best weekly non-crisis gain in 32 years, driven by strong Q1 reports and an 'extraordinary' 51-week streak of gains
• Nine of 11 S&P 500 sectors reached record-high forward earnings, with AI capex and US-onshoring boom fueling growth across previously lagging sectors like Materials

Market Summary: Mixed US Futures as Trump Visits China

Market Movement:

US stock futures showed divergent trends on May 13, 2026, with Dow Jones futures down 114 points (-0.2%) to 49,755, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.7%, indicating renewed appetite for technology stocks.

Key Drivers:

Investors responded to firmer-than-expected US core inflation data and elevated oil prices. WTI crude traded near $102 per barrel, supported by US-Iran conflict concerns. The Wall Street Journal reported UAE retaliatory strikes against Iran, raising fears of broader regional escalation if Tehran's ceasefire with Washington collapses.

US-China Diplomacy:

President Trump arrived in Beijing Wednesday night for meetings with President Xi Jinping. Discussions will address trade, artificial intelligence, Taiwan, energy security, and Middle East tensions. Trump's delegation includes high-profile executives: Apple's Tim Cook, Tesla's Elon Musk, and leaders from Boeing, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Qualcomm, and Visa.

Earnings Performance:

The S&P 500's forward earnings surged 2.5% weekly—the strongest non-crisis gain in 32 years, according to Yardeni Research. Forward earnings have risen for 51 consecutive weeks, approaching the all-time record of 77 weeks set in 2004. Nine of the S&P 500's 11 sectors reached record-high forward revenue and earnings forecasts, driven by AI capital expenditure and US onshoring.

Currency Markets:

The US dollar strengthened, with the DXY index reaching a weekly high.

Market Outlook:

With Nvidia earnings scheduled for next week and limited major announcements, analysts expect markets may drift as focus shifts from geopolitics to US-China relations, contingent on avoiding Middle East escalation.