General Market News

U.S. stock futures plunged on Wednesday, with Dow futures down 564 points (1.1%) and Nasdaq 100 futures falling 1.3% to a four-week low, after President Trump declared the Iran peace memorandum 'over.' The remarks sparked a sharp jump in oil prices exceeding 5% as traders priced in heightened supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz, reviving inflation fears and concerns the Fed may keep policy tighter for longer.

• Trump's comments in Ankara ended diplomatic hopes with Iran as Revolutionary Guards targeted U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait following U.S. strikes on Iran after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Energy stocks bucked the broader selloff, with Exxon Mobil gaining 3% and Chevron up 2.4% in premarket trading as Brent and WTI crude spiked on renewed supply disruption risks.
• Fed minutes due Wednesday will be closely watched for officials' views on inflation risk and energy-market stress, as markets currently price in expectations for potential policy adjustments under Chair Kevin Warsh.

Mortgage demand fell 2.2% last week as interest rates remained elevated in a narrow range, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.58%. Both refinance applications (down 4%) and purchase applications (down 1%) declined, though both remain slightly higher than year-ago levels. The stagnant rate environment is limiting borrower incentive to act.

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased marginally to 6.58% from 6.57%, staying in a tight range that has persisted for over a month
• Refinance applications dropped 4% week-over-week, as rates remain too close to existing mortgages to justify refinancing costs (typically requiring 75+ basis points savings)
• Government-backed loans, particularly VA loans (up 5%), are gaining traction as lower down payment products attract more borrowers amid elevated conventional mortgage costs

Oil prices rose sharply after the U.S. and Iran exchanged military strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump declaring their ceasefire memorandum 'over'. The escalation triggered a sanctions waiver cancellation and sent Brent crude above $78 per barrel, while global stock markets declined amid a broader selloff in chip stocks.

• U.S. struck Iranian targets after oil tankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the most significant escalation since last month's ceasefire agreement
• Chip stocks tumbled globally with the SOX index down nearly 5% and South Korea's KOSPI falling over 5% into bear market territory
• New Zealand's central bank raised rates by a quarter-point to 2.5% to combat inflation, signaling continued monetary tightening globally

A Qatari LNG tanker, Al Rekayyat, was struck by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz and is stationary awaiting salvage operations after a fire broke out in its engine room. All crew have been evacuated safely, and the LNG cargo remains intact with no tank breach. Qatar's foreign ministry has held Iran fully responsible for the attack, marking the first such strike on a Qatari LNG vessel since hostilities began on February 28.

• The vessel is at risk of explosion due to the engine room fire, though industry sources assess the risk is low if no further attacks occur; a breach of the main LNG tanks would be 'catastrophic'
• Two support vessels (a tug boat and service ship) are positioned near the tanker, which is located near the Strait of Hormuz entrance close to Oman's coast
• Qatar summoned Iran's deputy ambassador and assigned full legal responsibility to Iran for the attack, significant given Qatar's role as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran

Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings achieved a record portfolio value of SG$518 billion ($401 billion) for the year ended March 31, driven by a 10.5% total return and strong performance of Singapore holdings. The firm plans to significantly expand investments in AI, private credit, and renewable infrastructure over the next five years.

• Portfolio growth was boosted by Singapore companies and a 23% rise in the Straits Times Index, though returns were reduced by 2% due to the Iran war in February and a stronger Singapore dollar
• Temasek will increase AI-related exposure from 6% to 15% by 2031, investing across cloud services, foundation models like Anthropic and OpenAI, and AI applications
• The firm plans to more than double private credit allocation from 2% to 5% by 2031, and expand 'core-plus' infrastructure (renewable energy, nuclear, decarbonization) to 5% within five years

Ukraine conducted major overnight drone strikes on Russia, hitting industrial sites, refineries, and two empty oil tankers in the Sea of Azov, killing one person and injuring several others. Russia's defense ministry claims it shot down 415 Ukrainian drones in the past 12 hours. The attacks are part of Ukraine's escalating campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, mirroring Russia's repeated strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities throughout the five-year war.

• One person was killed in Saratov region with multiple civilian industrial sites damaged; two empty oil tankers were damaged in Taganrog Bay while en route to Rostov-on-Don
• Russia claims to have downed 415 Ukrainian drones in a 12-hour period, while Ukraine says it targeted vessels from Russia's 'shadow fleet' delivering fuel to Crimea
• The Sea of Azov represents a critical supply route for Russian forces in Crimea and southern Ukraine, making it a strategic target for Ukrainian drone operations

China has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the remainder of July and allowed private refiner Zhejiang Petrochemical Co to resume shipments after a four-month halt. The move signals China, the world's biggest refiner, is returning to normal operations following disruptions from the Iran war.

• Zhejiang Petrochemical, majority owned by Rongsheng Petrochemical, has been permitted to export fuel in July after halting exports for more than three months
• The easing of export curbs indicates China is normalizing its refined fuel trade after geopolitical disruptions
• China's Ministry of Commerce and National Development Reform Commission did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the policy change

Oil prices jumped over 2.7% after the U.S. launched strikes on Iran in retaliation for Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation threatens a fragile ceasefire reached last month that had reopened the strategic waterway after months of disruption, with the U.S. revoking sanctions waivers that allowed Iran to sell oil.

• WTI crude rose 2.87% to $72.46 per barrel and Brent crude jumped 2.75% to $76.18 per barrel following the U.S. military strikes
• The U.S. Treasury Department revoked sanctions waivers that had permitted Iran to sell oil, with officials warning Iran will face 'heavy costs' for targeting commercial shipping
• The Joint Maritime Information Center raised its threat assessment for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to 'severe', warning that further hostile action by Iran was likely

Global automakers including GM, Volkswagen, and Renault are shifting vehicle development from headquarters to China, leveraging Chinese engineering expertise in electric powertrains and software. GM's China-developed Buick Electra E7 sold over 10,000 units in its first month and will be exported to South Korea, with its platform being used in future Cadillac models. This marks a reversal from China's former role as merely a low-cost manufacturing base to becoming an innovation hub for legacy automakers.

• GM plans to export its first China-developed Buick and replace the Detroit-developed Ultium platform with the Chinese-engineered Xiao Yao platform in the next Cadillac Optiq, featuring 900-volt supercharging unavailable on Detroit models
• Audi's China-developed E5 Sportback outsells the Germany-developed Mercedes CLA with 910 monthly sales versus 296, demonstrating the competitive advantage of locally-developed features like intelligent air suspension
• The shift raises concerns about branding consistency, potential culture clashes, and political backlash over moving R&D expertise away from home markets and supplier ecosystems

The Federal Communications Commission denied California-based Digitalsystem Technology permission to provide international telecom services and added it to a national security risk list due to its Chinese ownership and ties to Chinese telecom firms. The decision continues the U.S. government's crackdown on Chinese technology companies over security concerns about potential exploitation by Chinese threat actors.

• The FCC cited Digitalsystem Technology's partnerships with Hong Kong-based PCCW, China Unicom, and China Mobile as national security risks, warning of potential collection, disruption, or misrouting of U.S. communications
• The agency has previously barred China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom from providing international telecom services to the U.S. and is moving to revoke Hong Kong carrier HKT's operating authority
• The FCC recently banned imports of equipment from Chinese manufacturers including Huawei, Dahua, ZTE, and Hikvision, all of which Digitalsystem had listed as partners or clients on its website

The U.S. military has resumed strikes against Iran following attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). The military action represents an escalation in tensions between the two nations in the strategically vital waterway through which a significant portion of global oil supply transits.

• CENTCOM characterized the U.S. response as 'powerful strikes' against Iranian targets
• The military action follows Iranian attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
• The situation is developing as a breaking news event with potential implications for global energy markets and Middle East stability

Traders on the Kalshi prediction platform estimate the Nasdaq-100 will end 2026 around 30,000, suggesting limited upside in the second half of the year despite an 18% gain year-to-date. The index surged over 33% from Iran war-induced lows in April through early June, but speculators now see fading momentum for the tech-heavy benchmark.

• Kalshi traders place 50-50 odds the Nasdaq-100 closes 2026 above 30,000, barely above its midday Tuesday level and near where it first crossed that threshold in late May
• Only 40% odds assigned that the index's 2026 high will exceed 32,000, and just 27% chance it reaches 33,000 by year-end, suggesting limited confidence in continued bull run
• UBS expects market leadership to broaden beyond tech in the second half, with investors looking past semiconductors to other sectors as they reassess the next phase of the AI trade

The International Monetary Fund appointed Silvana Tenreyro, a London School of Economics professor and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member, as its new chief economist and research director, effective August 10. She replaces Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, who returned to academia. Tenreyro brings extensive policy experience and academic expertise to guide the IMF's economic analysis during a period of global uncertainty.

• Tenreyro holds citizenship in Argentina, Italy, and Britain, and served on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee from 2017 to 2023
• The chief economist role oversees IMF economic updates and serves as a principal voice on global economic outlook, a position complicated by recent challenges including the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts
• Tenreyro won the Bernhard Harms Prize in 2023 for pioneering work on economic volatility, monetary policy transmission, and currency unions

SpaceXAI and Cursor are planning to launch their first jointly developed AI model as soon as Wednesday, according to The Information. The launch was delayed earlier this week to improve the model's efficiency. Reuters could not independently verify the report.

• The launch was postponed from earlier in the week specifically to enhance the model's efficiency
• The information comes from an internal memo sent to staff at the companies
• This represents the first collaborative AI model from SpaceXAI and Cursor

The Dow Jones fell 0.3% from record highs on Tuesday as a sharp selloff in AI-linked semiconductor stocks dragged down broader markets, with the Nasdaq declining 1.2%. The chip sector selloff was triggered by Samsung's earnings disappointing investors despite strong numbers, while rising oil prices added to market caution after attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.

• The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped over 5%, with Micron down approximately 7% and other chip stocks including KLA, Marvell, Broadcom, and AMD posting steep declines as investors rotated out of AI-related stocks.
• Samsung's Q2 earnings (89.4 trillion won operating profit, 171 trillion won revenue) failed to impress markets, triggering a global chip selloff with South Korea's Kospi index falling nearly 5% and Chinese AI startup DeepSeek reportedly developing its own chip to reduce reliance on Nvidia and Huawei.
• Defensive sectors outperformed with healthcare and financials gaining ground, while oil prices surged about 5% (Brent to $75.74, WTI to $72.01) following reported Iranian attacks on a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Treasury Department revoked authorization permitting Iranian oil sales following attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration stated that the memorandum of understanding with Iran is performance-based, and Iran's actions in the strait were unacceptable and would face consequences.

• The revocation follows multiple tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trade waterway
• A U.S. official stated Iran will 'only reap benefits if they exhibit good behavior' under the performance-based agreement
• The action represents an escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions affecting global oil markets

Oil prices rallied sharply on July 7, 2026, after Iran attacked multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including Qatari and Saudi Arabian ships. WTI crude rose 2.78% and Brent crude climbed 3.10% as geopolitical tensions spiked in the critical shipping corridor. Iran asserted territorial authority over parts of the Strait, while Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for the attacks and their consequences.

• Three vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, with ships reportedly traveling without transponders to avoid detection by Iran, which insists vessels follow Iran-approved routes
• WTI oil attempted to break above the $70.50-$71.00 resistance level with potential to reach $74.50-$75.00, while Brent tested the $74.00 level after clearing $72.00-$72.50 resistance
• Natural gas traded range-bound around $3.25, supported by hot weather forecasts driving demand, while the broader oil market incorporated increased geopolitical risk premium despite ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations

The Joint Maritime Information Center has elevated the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz to 'severe' following multiple Iranian attacks on commercial vessels this week, including a Qatari LNG tanker. Iran is targeting ships using a U.S. Navy-protected southern route near Oman's coast, violating terms of a June 17 interim deal with the U.S. that guaranteed safe passage through the strait.

• The strait has fractured into competing corridors: Iran demands ships use its approved northern route while Gulf states use a U.S. Navy-protected southern route, with Iran warning it will target vessels not complying with its directives
• Ship traffic through Hormuz remains severely depressed despite recent increases following the interim U.S.-Iran deal, with oil exports averaging 4.3 million barrels per day in June compared to over 15 million bpd before the conflict
• Qatar held Iran responsible for Tuesday's attack on its LNG tanker Al-Rekayyat and called on Tehran to stop endangering global energy supplies, while the U.S. has launched retaliatory airstrikes after Iranian attacks on vessels

Small-cap stocks are significantly outperforming larger stocks in 2026, with the S&P 600 index up 23.4% year-to-date compared to 15.7% for the Nasdaq-100 and 8.1% for the S&P 500. The outperformance is driven by robust U.S. economic growth benefiting domestically focused businesses and AI capital spending spreading to smaller companies. This momentum may continue as the small-cap market's relatively small size could amplify investor inflows.

• The S&P 600 small-cap index has gained 23.4% year-to-date, vastly outpacing the S&P 500 (8.1%) and even surpassing the Nasdaq-100 (15.7%), while the Mag 7 stocks are down 5.4%
• The entire S&P 600 Index is valued at approximately $2 trillion, roughly equivalent to Broadcom alone, meaning even modest investor rotation into small caps could have an outsized positive impact on returns
• Small caps are benefiting from domestic economic strength and the AI capital spending boom expanding beyond mega-cap tech companies to smaller tech and energy firms

Energy Transfer (ET) has underperformed its industry and broader sector over the past six months, prompting questions about investment strategy. Despite the stock's weak relative performance, the company benefits from a vast 140,000-mile pipeline network and 90% fee-based revenue model that generates predictable cash flows.

• ET's extensive 140,000-mile network and 90% fee-based revenue structure provide stable, predictable cash flow generation
• The stock trades at a discount to industry peers based on EV/EBITDA valuation, presenting potential value
• Return on equity (ROE) lags behind competitors and debt-to-capital ratio is slightly elevated compared to peers