Europe's reliance on US gas set to rise, research report says

• The U.S. is set to become Europe's biggest gas supplier in 2026, with the EU already importing 58% of its LNG from America in 2025, up from triple the volume in 2021
• Europe is expected to source two-thirds of its LNG from the U.S. in 2026 as it transitions away from Russian energy, though Russian LNG imports actually increased 16% in early 2026
• The EU has scheduled a full ban on Russian LNG imports for January 2027 and pipeline gas for September 2027, after banning short-term Russian LNG contracts in April 2026

Summary: Europe's Growing Dependence on U.S. Natural Gas

European countries are projected to import 80% of their liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States by 2028, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) released May 13, 2026. This represents a dramatic increase from 58% in the previous year.

Key Figures:

• The U.S. is on track to become Europe's largest total gas supplier (LNG and pipeline combined) in 2026
• Europe is expected to source two-thirds of its LNG from the U.S. in 2026
• U.S. LNG imports to Europe more than tripled between 2021 and 2025
• Russian LNG imports increased 16% in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025

Market Context:

The surge in U.S. imports stems from the EU's phase-out of Russian gas following geopolitical tensions. However, the EU banned short-term Russian LNG contracts in April 2026, with a complete Russian LNG ban scheduled for January 2027 and pipeline gas ban for September 2027.

Risks and Concerns:

IEEFA warns that increasing reliance on a single supplier creates a "new energy dependence," exposing Europe to supply vulnerabilities. The EU currently faces elevated oil and gas prices triggered by conflict in Iran, highlighting its exposure to volatile global fuel markets.

Recommendations:

The research institute advises the EU to invest in renewable energy and heat pumps to reduce dependence on imported fuels and mitigate exposure to price volatility.

The report underscores the trade-off between energy security diversification away from Russia and concentration risk with U.S. suppliers, a critical consideration for European policymakers and energy investors.