Fifteen points to ponder

• Oil prices eased with Brent crude dropping to $98/barrel and U.S. crude around $88, while major Asian stock indices rose 1.5-3% on ceasefire hopes
• March business surveys revealed stalling eurozone growth and rising U.S. inflation fears, indicating the war's significant impact on economic confidence despite market optimism
• Private credit sector stress continued as Ares joined Apollo in gating funds amid investor redemption waves, while Trump's economic approval rating fell to 29%

Market Summary: Energy Markets Rally on Iran Ceasefire Hopes

Key Developments

Global markets rallied Wednesday on tentative signs of de-escalation in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Iran indicated to the UN it would allow non-combatant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, while reports emerged of a 15-point plan involving a month-long ceasefire. However, Iran denies negotiations are underway, and missiles continue to be exchanged.

Market Movements

Energy: Brent crude dropped to $98 per barrel, while U.S. crude hovered around $88, reflecting cautious optimism.

Equities: Asian markets posted strong gains—South Korea's KOSPI up 1.5%, Japan's Nikkei nearly 3%. European stocks rose over 1% at open, with U.S. futures positive.

Commodities: Gold declined Wednesday morning as risk sentiment improved and the dollar softened.

Economic Impact

March business surveys revealed significant damage to economic confidence, showing stalled eurozone private sector growth and rising U.S. inflation fears. The energy shock is clearly affecting the real economy.

President Trump's economic approval rating fell to 29%—the lowest of either term and below any Biden rating—according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.

Other Notable Developments

• Private Credit: Ares joined Apollo in gating certain funds amid investor redemption pressures
• Technology: SK Hynix reportedly planning U.S. IPO in H2 2026; SpaceX IPO could launch this week or next
• Geopolitical: Gulf states' diminishing faith in U.S. military protection may impact the petrodollar system

Outlook

Uncertainty remains high as the extent and durability of any diplomatic progress is unclear, keeping markets volatile.