Oil Eases on Geopolitics

• Import prices climbed 1.3% in February, double analyst forecasts and the highest level since early 2021; export prices rose 1.5%, significantly beating the 0.6% estimate
• Mortgage applications fell 10.5% week-over-week as average 30-year rates reached 6.43%, the highest year-to-date, with bond yields remaining elevated at 4.34% on 10-year treasuries
• Pre-market trading showed broad gains with major indexes up 0.65-0.82%, though volatility remained high as geopolitical headlines continued to drive market swings

Market Summary: Oil Prices Ease Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Market Performance:

Pre-market trading showed broad gains with the Dow up 328 points (+0.71%), S&P 500 up 43 points (+0.65%), and Nasdaq up 215 points (+0.82%). The Russell 2000 also gained 0.82%. However, indexes retreated from early-morning highs, indicating elevated volatility driven by geopolitical developments, particularly regarding Iran and the Iraq War.

Fixed Income & Housing:

Mortgage applications declined 10.5% week-over-week as rates hit year-to-date highs of 6.43% for 30-year mortgages. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.34% and the 2-year at 3.88%. Bond yields have moderated from recent peaks but remain elevated.

Trade Data:

February import prices surged 1.3%, double analyst forecasts and the highest in nearly four years. Excluding fuel, imports rose 1.2%—the strongest since January 2022. Year-over-year import prices increased 1.3%. Export prices jumped 1.5% versus 0.6% expected, marking the highest level since May 2022, with a 3.5% year-over-year gain.

Energy:

Oil prices eased this morning, though volatility remains high given ongoing Iranian tensions and regional conflicts.

Corporate News:

Chewy (CHWY) reported mixed Q3 results, missing earnings estimates by $0.01 at $0.27 per share. However, the company raised full-year sales guidance, driving shares up 10.9% in pre-market trading. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Market Outlook:

Analysts caution that trade and inflation data predate recent Middle East escalations, suggesting further volatility ahead.