Solar to surpass coal in Texas power generation in 2026, EIA says

• Solar generation in ERCOT is projected to reach 78 billion kWh in 2026, surpassing coal's 60 billion kWh for the first time
• By 2027, solar output is expected to grow to 99 billion kWh while coal generation rises only slightly to 66 billion kWh
• Natural gas remains the dominant power source in Texas, averaging 44% of total generation from 2021 to 2025

Summary: Solar to Surpass Coal in Texas Power Generation by 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that utility-scale solar power will exceed coal-fired generation for the first time in Texas's ERCOT grid in 2026, marking a significant milestone in the state's energy transition.

Key Figures and Timeline

According to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook released Wednesday, May 13:

• 2026: Solar generation will reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), surpassing coal's 60 billion kWh
• 2027: Solar output projected to grow to 99 billion kWh versus 66 billion kWh from coal

Market Context

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) serves most of Texas and has experienced steady solar capacity growth driven by rapid electricity demand expansion. Despite solar's gains, natural gas remains the dominant power source, averaging 44% of total generation from 2021 to 2025.

Market Implications

This forecast signals a fundamental shift in Texas's energy mix, with renewable solar energy overtaking traditional coal generation within two years. The trend reflects broader national momentum toward cleaner energy sources and suggests continued investment opportunities in solar infrastructure and technology.

The transition occurs as Texas manages robust electricity demand growth, with solar providing an increasingly viable solution. Coal's declining share indicates potential challenges for traditional fossil fuel generators while creating opportunities for solar developers and equipment manufacturers.

This milestone reinforces Texas's position as a major renewable energy market despite its historical reliance on fossil fuels, potentially influencing energy policy and investment strategies across other states and regions.