General Market News

The Japanese yen surged to its strongest levels since February, driven by expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike next week, supported by upward revisions to Q2 GDP and rising real wages. The yen's strengthening, alongside gains in China's yuan and South Korea's won, has raised concerns about unwinding yen-funded carry trades globally, causing Tokyo's Nikkei to drop nearly 2%.

• Markets anticipate an almost certain BOJ rate hike next week, potentially 25 basis points or more, following improved economic data including the biggest yearly rise in real wages in July
• China's exports surged 25% year-on-year in August, pushing its trade surplus to $119 billion and its surplus with the U.S. to $29 billion despite ongoing trade tensions
• Global markets face tension between strong economic growth and rising interest rates, with oil prices grinding toward $100 per barrel after Iran pledged 'economic warfare' on America

US stock futures fell sharply on Tuesday, with Dow futures down over 400 points (0.7%), as oil prices surged near $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions. The move has revived inflation concerns ahead of key CPI and PPI data releases this week, which will inform the Federal Reserve's rate decision at its September 15-16 meeting.

• Brent crude rose above $99 and WTI climbed above $94 after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.81% and adding pressure on rate-sensitive equities.
• Markets are pricing in a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, with Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI reports (expected at 3.4% headline, 2.4% core) critical for the decision.
• The Dow faced additional pressure from Amgen, which fell over 5% after Novartis reported its pelacarsen drug trial failure, while energy stocks and AI-linked chipmakers showed relative strength.

Treasury yields rose as markets reopened after Labor Day weekend, with the 10-year yield climbing above 4.80% and the 30-year reaching 5.27%. Investors are awaiting key economic data including Thursday's producer price inflation report, while rising energy costs from Middle East tensions add pressure to the inflation outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting.

• U.S. producer price inflation (PPI) for August, due Thursday, is forecast to rise 0.4%, a key gauge of wholesale cost pressures that will inform Fed rate decisions
• Strong August jobs report (162,000 jobs added versus 53,000 expected) released Friday heightened focus on the Fed's interest rate trajectory
• Energy costs surged with Brent crude approaching $100 per barrel and WTI rising over 3% to $94.20 following attacks on Saudi facilities by Houthi militants, adding to inflation concerns

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, rather than a larger 50-basis-point hike, to avoid shocking markets and households accustomed to decades of near-zero rates. The BOJ is considering accelerating rate hikes to roughly once per quarter due to inflation pressures from a weak yen and rising import costs. This measured approach aims to demonstrate control over inflation without signaling desperation or being behind the curve.

• Sources say the BOJ wants to avoid a 50-bp hike as it could backfire by making markets fear the bank is desperately behind the curve on inflation, instead favoring a conventional 25-bp increase with possible follow-ups in December or January
• The yen has strengthened to around 153 per dollar from a 40-year low near 164 in July, reducing pressure on the BOJ to use aggressive rate hikes to support the currency
• Dovish board members including Toichiro Asada (who dissented in June) may push for caution as the policy rate approaches the neutral range estimated at 1.1% to 2.5%, while bank lending remains healthy at 5.4% year-on-year growth in August

China's automotive exports surged 77.5% year-over-year to a record 894,000 units in August 2025, led by companies like BYD, while domestic passenger vehicle sales fell 23.7% to 1.55 million units, marking the 11th consecutive monthly decline in the home market.

• Export growth of 77.5% in August represents a slight deceleration from July's 88.2% increase, but still reached record volumes
• Domestic sales dropped 23.7% to 1.55 million vehicles, worsening from July's 21.1% decline
• The sharp divergence highlights Chinese automakers' growing reliance on international markets amid prolonged weakness in domestic demand

Oil prices are surging amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude reaching $93 and Brent approaching the critical $100 threshold. Iran has threatened retaliation against U.S. strikes on its tankers near Kharg Island, raising fears of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz that could tighten global supply. Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecasts by $5, anticipating shipping disruptions could continue into 2027.

• WTI crude has broken above $87 triangle resistance and is targeting $97, while Brent is testing the $100-$102 zone with potential upside to $110-$112 if broken
• U.S. attacks on Iranian tankers and threats to Gulf energy assets increase risk of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, which could delay crude deliveries and raise shipping and insurance costs
• Goldman Sachs revised Brent and WTI forecasts upward by $5, expecting shipping disruptions to persist through 2027, though prices could plummet if a ceasefire is reached or normal shipping resumes

UBS now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice in 2026, with 25-basis-point hikes forecasted for September and December, reversing its earlier prediction of no rate changes. This outlook shift follows stronger-than-expected US jobs data showing 162,000 jobs added in August and hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are currently pricing in a 60.4% probability of a September rate hike.

• August employment gained 162,000 jobs versus 55,000 expected, with unemployment holding at 4.1%, marking the strongest monthly increase since March
• UBS recommends AI and power equities (QQQ, XLU) and medium-to-longer duration bonds, noting investment implications depend on whether hikes stem from growth strength or inflation concerns
• Gold faces near-term pressure from higher real rates and a stronger dollar, but UBS views it as a portfolio hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks rather than a tactical Fed play

Oil prices climbed to a six-week high on Monday, with Brent reaching $97.93 and WTI surpassing $93 per barrel, following escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities over the weekend and reported strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities. The U.S. military struck three Iranian oil tankers Saturday after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Navy warships, while a Saudi oil refinery in Jizan was also reportedly hit. Rising oil prices are pushing up costs for gasoline and diesel.

• Brent crude rose 1.3% to $97.52/barrel and WTI climbed 1.3% to $92.68/barrel, both reaching highest levels since late July
• Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan, which houses a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery, were struck in fresh attacks with damage still being assessed
• U.S. struck three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Navy warships, with Iran condemning the action as a 'war crime' and 'economic warfare'

Belgian electricity transmission operator Elia secured a €1 billion ($1.2 billion) credit facility from the European Investment Bank to finance the Princess Elisabeth island energy project. The artificial island will be built 45 kilometers off the Belgian coast to connect future offshore wind farms to Belgium's power grid, serving as critical offshore electricity infrastructure.

• The €1 billion loan is the largest the EIB has ever provided for an energy infrastructure project in the Benelux region
• The Princess Elisabeth island is described as a strategic flagship project designed to unlock next-generation offshore wind capacity and strengthen Europe's energy security
• Elia reported higher first-half revenues in July and maintained its full-year profit outlook despite the major infrastructure investment

Major U.S. stock indices are holding key technical support levels amid choppy trading on September 7, 2026, following a hotter-than-expected jobs report. The Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 are all maintaining positions above their 50-day moving averages despite rising interest rates, with analysts monitoring critical resistance and support zones for potential breakouts.

• Nasdaq 100 has formed a potential double bottom pattern and is consolidating above the 50-day EMA at 29,228, with the AI trade showing signs of renewed strength
• The Dow Jones 30 is testing support near $53,000 with the 50-day EMA just below, while the S&P 500 faces resistance at 7,800 and support at 7,600
• Despite climbing bond yields triggered by stronger jobs data, all three indices remain in established uptrends with bulls defending key technical levels

Over $1.1 trillion in corporate buyback authorizations will become inactive as companies enter pre-earnings blackout periods starting mid-September, removing a major source of stock market support. This comes as Treasury yields approach 4.8%, retail buying weakens seasonally, and systematic investors have already rebuilt positions. The reduced buyback activity leaves equities more vulnerable to volatility and downside shocks.

• Corporate buybacks hit a record $1.10 trillion over 12 months through June, but blackout periods accelerating around September 12 will curtail this demand through Q3 earnings season
• The composition of buybacks is shifting away from cash-rich AI/tech companies (down 32% to $85B) toward more cyclical financials (up to record $287B), making support more credit-sensitive
• 10-year Treasury yields near 4.8% are historically 'noxious to stocks' while September retail buying on down days runs at roughly half the typical monthly average since 2019

French state-owned utility EDF is in talks to acquire So Energy, an electricity supplier and solar panel installer majority owned by Ireland's ESB. The deal would expand EDF's British customer base from 5 million to approximately 5.3 million as it competes with rivals like Octopus Energy, British Gas, and E.ON in the UK market.

• The acquisition would add around 300,000 customers to EDF's existing 5 million-customer base in Britain
• So Energy is described as relatively small, suggesting a modest valuation for the French utility
• The move follows similar consolidation activity, including German utility E.ON's plans to acquire a competitor several months earlier

US August CPI data due this week will be critical for the Federal Reserve's September rate decision, with headline inflation expected to hold at 3.4% while core inflation may ease to 2.4%. The data takes on heightened importance after strong August jobs growth (162,000 vs. 55,000 expected) raised rate hike probabilities to 57%. Core inflation readings will determine whether the Fed proceeds with tightening or remains on hold.

• Fed funds futures show 57% probability of a September rate hike following stronger-than-expected jobs report; markets pricing in 15 basis points of tightening in September and 60 basis points through June 2027
• Core CPI month-over-month reading is key: 0.3% would push hike probabilities higher, while 0.1% would increase odds of Fed staying on hold through year-end
• Higher-for-longer rate outlook pressured equities Friday, with S&P 500 down 0.38% and 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.78%, approaching the 5% level viewed as troublesome for stocks

China's private soybean processors face a supply squeeze in Q4 2026 as Brazilian inventories tighten and a 10% U.S. tariff keeps American soybeans uncompetitive. The industry is already pressured by negative crushing margins of 150-230 yuan per ton and weakening demand due to China's shrinking pig herd. Processors hope President Xi Jinping's upcoming Washington visit will yield tariff relief, though any changes remain uncertain.

• Chinese state traders bought 11 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans after Xi's May meeting with Trump, but private crushers have avoided U.S. supplies due to the 10% tariff making them unprofitable
• Brazil has limited capacity to fill the gap, with 85% of the 2025/26 crop already sold and strong domestic demand competing with exports; Brazil's shipments to China are down 2.6 million tons year-over-year through August
• Even excluding the tariff, U.S. soybean imports for October-January would generate negative crush margins of $22-34 per ton at current prices, while China's pig herd contraction further weakens feed demand

Strong U.S. August payroll data showing robust job growth has revived expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike, with markets now assigning a 57% probability compared to under 50% prior to the report. The dollar's gains remain limited as investors anticipate the ECB will also tighten policy on Thursday with a 25-basis-point increase to combat eurozone inflation. Upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data will be critical tests for whether persistent inflation supports further Fed tightening.

• U.S. employers added the strongest payroll increase in five months with unemployment holding at 4.1%, pushing Fed rate hike probability to 57% for September
• ECB expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday as eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3%, with some forecasts calling for another December hike
• Dollar Index technical outlook remains neutral-to-bearish below 99.47, with key support at 98.83 and resistance capping gains as energy-driven inflation pressures may force other central banks to tighten

Huawei launched its new Mate XT2 foldable smartphone on Monday, featuring the Kirin 9050 Pro chip designed to circumvent U.S. technology restrictions. The launch intensifies competition in China's premium handset market, with Xiaomi releasing a rival foldable phone the same day and Apple unveiling its latest iPhone series on Wednesday.

• The Mate XT2 folds twice to create a tablet-sized screen and uses Huawei's new Kirin 9050 Pro chip, which delivers more computing power with lower electricity consumption
• The chip design helps Huawei overcome U.S. restrictions on access to advanced technology
• Xiaomi launches its competing foldable phone on the same day, while Apple's new iPhone series debuts Wednesday, escalating competition for China's premium smartphone market

Liquid Network, a Bitcoin-based payments and settlement network, reported that approximately $320 million was withdrawn from its federation wallet in a hack on Sunday. The breach involved around 4,000 of the 4,200 bitcoin held in its Liquid Federation wallet, allegedly withdrawn by 'purported white-hat hackers.' The network has halted new transactions while addressing the security incident.

• About 4,000 of 4,200 bitcoin (approximately $320 million) were withdrawn from Liquid Network's Federation wallet
• Funds were withdrawn via SideSwap, an authorized settlement platform, though the key used was not compromised according to Liquid Network
• Liquid wallets are impacted and new transactions have been halted as the network responds to the security breach

South Korea and the United States have agreed on a $22.3 billion investment to build a 6.3-gigawatt gas plant in Encinal, Texas, aimed at meeting rising power demand for AI data centers. This would be Seoul's first U.S. investment under a 2023 trade agreement in which South Korea pledged $350 billion in U.S. investments in exchange for favorable tariff treatment.

• The gas plant project is part of a broader trade deal where Seoul committed to $350 billion worth of U.S. investments in exchange for preferential tariffs on South Korean imports
• The facility will have 6.3-gigawatt capacity specifically targeting the growing electricity needs of AI data centers
• South Korea is also exploring additional U.S. projects including a large-scale nuclear power plant or a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska

Treasury yields are approaching a critical 4.8% threshold on 10-year notes, with analysts warning that a sustained break above this level could create significant problems across multiple asset classes. Rising fiscal deficits, massive debt issuance exceeding $8.4 trillion in rollover by year-end, and heavy corporate borrowing are driving yields higher despite Treasury Department efforts to talk rates down. HSBC has raised its end-2026 forecast for 10-year yields to 4.65%, citing structural pressure from fiscal dominance.

• A sustained move above 4.8% on 10-year Treasurys (the January 2025 high) could trigger repricing across long-duration bonds, high-valuation growth stocks, commercial real estate, and private assets
• Over $8.4 trillion in U.S. government securities will roll over by year-end, while corporate investment-grade issuance is projected at $2.3 trillion for 2026, with September expected to set a record
• Treasury Secretary Bessent's verbal intervention to lower yields has failed, underscoring that fiscal concerns cannot be addressed without tackling underlying structural deficits and the $40 trillion national debt

The Philippines' securities regulator has approved GCash parent company Mynt's initial public offering that could raise up to $1.48 billion (92.32 billion pesos), which would make it the largest IPO in Philippine history. The regulator also granted Mynt a reduced minimum public float requirement of 12% instead of the standard 15%. The offering would value the fintech company at approximately 668.96 billion pesos.

• If completed at maximum size, the IPO would surpass Monde Nissin's 55.89 billion peso offering in 2021 as the Philippines' largest ever public debut
• Mynt was founded in 2015 as a partnership between Globe Telecom, Ayala Corp, and Ant Group (formerly Ant Financial)
• The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the offering on Friday, with parent company Globe Telecom disclosing the regulatory clearance on Monday