General Market News

Central banks have signaled hawkish policy shifts driven by the Iran conflict, with markets now pricing a 15% probability of a June US rate hike despite weak demand conditions. Bitcoin has shown relative resilience, up 6.4% since the conflict began, while European equities fell 9.1% and gold dropped 14.4%. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act advances with more accommodative stablecoin reward provisions, and crypto miners pivot to AI infrastructure amid unsustainable mining economics.

• Rate hike expectations repriced sharply across major economies, but current inflation remains supply-driven (energy-focused) rather than demand-driven, making aggressive tightening potentially counterproductive given weakening growth outlook
• The CLARITY Act's latest draft permits transaction-based and promotional stablecoin rewards while prohibiting deposit-like yield offerings, with SEC, CFTC, and Treasury to define boundaries within one year
• Bitcoin mining faces structural crisis with hash price at $28-30 per PH/s/day and 15-20% of global fleet loss-making, prompting over $70 billion in AI/HPC contract announcements and creating valuation bifurcation (12.3x vs 5.9x EV/NTM sales multiples)

Investor expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 have sharply reversed, with markets now pricing the federal funds rate at 3.73% by year-end 2025, near the top of the current range. This represents a 70 basis point jump from expectations just one month ago, when three rate cuts to 3.05% were anticipated. Rising inflation fears driven by conflict with Iran and oil supply concerns have caused the dramatic shift in sentiment.

• The expected federal funds rate jumped nearly 70 basis points in one month, from 3.05% to 3.73%, as investors abandoned expectations of three Fed rate cuts this year
• Treasury yields surged with the 2-year note up nearly 50 basis points and the 10-year note up over 40 basis points since late February due to war-fueled inflation concerns
• The Fed's own projections indicate just one rate cut in 2025 (median 3.4%), but markets have priced in even less easing amid fears that conflict with Iran could disrupt Persian Gulf oil supplies

US stocks rose Monday as President Trump signaled a possible end to the Iran conflict, while oil prices experienced volatility amid ongoing Middle East tensions. The Dow gained 228 points despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and continued attacks on regional energy infrastructure. National gas prices hit $3.99, the highest since 2022.

• Brent crude is up more than 55% in March, on track for its steepest monthly gain on record, trading around $112 per barrel with earlier session highs of $115
• Trump threatened to obliterate Iran's power plants and oil wells if the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 20% of global oil—is not reopened within a week
• Iran struck Israel's largest refinery and Houthi allies attacked Kuwait infrastructure, raising concerns about prolonged supply disruptions even after the five-week conflict ends

Wall Street analysts maintain highly bullish price targets for S&P 500 stocks, projecting a 28.9% gain over the next 12 months despite the index falling 9% from recent highs. The median analyst target price stands at 8,349.36 compared to the S&P 500's closing price of 6,477.16, with technology stocks expected to lead gains at 40.9%.

• Analysts raised combined price targets by 0.9% even as the S&P 500 fell 6.8% from Feb. 25 through late March, showing continued optimism despite market weakness
• Eight of 11 S&P sectors recorded increased price targets while their actual prices declined, with only Energy showing both higher targets and higher performance
• Top expected gainers include Fair Isaac (90% upside to target), DoorDash (76%), and Microsoft (64%), with over 90% of analysts rating MSFT as buy/outperform despite its 34% drop from October highs

The U.S. Treasury is planning meetings with insurance regulators to address growing concerns about the private credit market, focusing on issues of liquidity, transparency, and lending discipline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aims to establish the department as a convening authority for state insurance regulators despite having no direct regulatory control over the sector.

• First meetings could be announced as soon as April 1, with focus on fund-level leverage, private credit ratings consistency, offshore reinsurance use, and market liquidity
• The non-bank financial institution sector, including private credit firms, grew 9.4% in 2024 compared to 4.7% for banks, now holding 51% ($256.8 trillion) of total global financial assets
• Financial Stability Board has flagged 'severe limitations' in private credit data availability and lack of standard definitions across countries, making risk identification difficult

Tyler Goodspeed, former acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under Trump, argues in his new book that recessions are 'fundamentally unforecastable' because they result from unpredictable shocks rather than cyclical patterns. He emphasizes that energy price shocks have been a major driver of many U.S. recessions over centuries, including the 2008-2009 financial crisis when oil prices hit $150 per barrel. Goodspeed, now chief economist at ExxonMobil, suggests governments cannot prevent recessions but can avoid making them worse through contractionary policy.

• Despite forecasting tools like the yield curve, historical testing shows 'a lot of false positives and false negatives' in recession predictions, making them unreliable.
• Energy price shocks have contributed to numerous recessions, with oil reaching its highest inflation-adjusted price in June 2008 ($150/barrel), when American households spent $2,000 more annually on energy.
• Government intervention has not reduced recession duration or depth over time, but contractionary fiscal and monetary policy during downturns can significantly worsen outcomes, as seen in the Great Depression.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated the central bank is closely monitoring the private credit sector for potential risks but currently sees no signs of systemic threats to the financial system. While acknowledging some participants may lose money, Powell emphasized regulators do not see connections that could cause broader contagion to the banking system.

• Powell noted private credit is 'a relatively small part of a very large asset pool' that regulators are watching 'super carefully'
• The Fed is monitoring connections to the banking system and potential contagion risks but does not currently see such linkages
• Regulators are gathering information from private credit organizations and banks to track exposure levels across the financial system

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations remain well-anchored despite rising energy prices and that the current turmoil in the $3 trillion private credit sector does not appear to pose systemic risks. Speaking at Harvard University near the end of his term, Powell indicated the current interest rate target of 3.5%-3.75% is appropriate as the Fed monitors ongoing economic developments including energy market volatility and tariff impacts.

• Powell believes the Fed should look beyond short-term energy price fluctuations and maintain focus on stable prices and low unemployment, with current rates at 3.5%-3.75% being 'a good place' to remain
• The private credit sector is experiencing rising defaults and investor withdrawals, but Powell sees no connections to the banking system or signs of contagion that would indicate a broader systemic crisis
• Powell declined to comment on his designated successor Kevin Warsh's stated preference for higher interest rates than current levels

Gold prices rose 1% to $4,570 per ounce and oil climbed 2.6% to $102.21 per barrel on Monday amid Iran war uncertainty. President Trump threatened to destroy Iran's oil infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened, while also indicating negotiations with a 'new regime' are underway. Markets are shifting focus from inflation concerns to economic growth worries as expectations build for extended high oil prices.

• Treasury yields fell 8 basis points to 4.36% after surging from 3.96% pre-war to 4.44% Friday, signaling market focus shifting from inflation to growth concerns with 'stagflationary implications'
• Trump issued ultimatum threatening to obliterate Iran's electric plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island (Iran's oil export terminal handling 2+ million barrels daily) if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
• Gold's traditional negative correlation with real yields may be returning, with lower Treasury yields potentially supporting gold's momentum after recent decline from $5,400 to $4,400 per ounce

Finance leaders from the G7 nations held a teleconference on March 30 to coordinate action on energy market volatility, committing to take 'all necessary measures' to preserve stability and limit economic spillovers. The International Energy Agency's 32 members agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles amid concerns over supply disruptions and rising crude prices. G7 central banks reaffirmed their commitment to price stability through data-based monetary policy as higher energy prices threaten to drive inflation.

• The IEA coordinated a record release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to combat surging global crude prices, which were on track for a record monthly rise
• Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that 'the likelihood of oil price rises and supply concerns affecting markets and economic growth has increased'
• The G7 called on countries to 'refrain from imposing unjustified export restrictions' on oil, gas and related products while supporting efforts to keep energy supplies flowing

NASA is preparing to launch the Artemis II mission on Wednesday, April 2, marking the first human spaceflight beyond Earth orbit in over 53 years with a four-person crew on a 10-day lunar journey. Separately, Citi initiated coverage on satellite and spacecraft component provider Voyager Technologies with a buy rating, citing exposure to aerospace and defense megatrends. Space stocks traded lower on Monday as the launch countdown began.

• Artemis II launches Wednesday at 6:24 p.m. ET from Kennedy Space Center using the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft, with favorable weather conditions reported
• NASA plans subsequent Artemis missions through 2028, including Artemis IV targeting the first lunar landing in early 2028 and annual missions thereafter
• Citi analyst rated Voyager Technologies a buy, expecting new business wins in missiles and space sectors to drive 'significant upside' to estimates; space stocks including Voyager, Rocket Lab, and Intuitive Machines declined 3% or more

Japan's industry minister called on G7 nations and the IEA to prepare additional measures, including coordinated oil stockpile releases, to stabilize energy markets amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The war on Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28 has caused major disruptions to global energy supplies, particularly affecting Asia with soaring prices and fuel shortages.

• The conflict has created the 'biggest-ever disruption to global energy' and is severely impacting Asian supply chains with fuel and raw material shortages
• G7 urged countries to avoid imposing unjustified export restrictions on hydrocarbons following the meeting with finance and energy ministers
• Japan provided emergency fuel support to the Philippines, delivering 142,000 barrels of diesel on March 26 to help maintain regional supply chains

US stock markets opened mixed on Monday, March 30, 2026, with the Dow rising 0.4% while the Nasdaq turned slightly negative after President Trump announced 'serious discussions' with Iran regarding the ongoing Middle East conflict. Markets are entering a holiday-shortened week with Good Friday closures, heavy economic data including March jobs report, and continued geopolitical uncertainty as the conflict enters its fifth week.

• All three major indices suffered losses of 2.8% to 5.25% last week, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow now down 7.5-7.9% from recent highs after four weeks of Middle East conflict
• March nonfarm payrolls data will be released Good Friday despite market closure, with economists expecting around 56,000 jobs added and unemployment near 4.4-4.5%; retail sales data Tuesday is seen as particularly important
• Oil prices continued climbing with WTI crude up 1.7% to $101.30/barrel as Trump threatened to 'obliterate' Iranian infrastructure if deal talks fail, while also suggesting possible ground operations to seize oil facilities

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman stated that current market conditions present one of the best opportunities in years to buy high-quality stocks at deeply discounted prices. His bullish stance comes amid market volatility driven by rising energy prices, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions. Ackman singled out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as 'stupidly cheap' with potential for outsized returns.

• Pershing Square Holdings is down 19% year-to-date as of the reported date, reflecting broader market weakness
• Ackman specifically highlighted U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as offering asymmetric return potential at current valuations
• The firm recently listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker 'PS', adopting a permanent capital structure similar to Berkshire Hathaway's model

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocated for cutting interest rates by approximately one percentage point over the course of a year, arguing that policymakers should ignore the current energy price spike unless it triggers sustained inflation. He maintains that inflation expectations remain well-anchored despite oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel and gasoline rising by more than $1 per gallon.

• Miran believes the Fed could lower rates by 'about a point' gradually over a year, while the current fed funds rate sits at 3.5%-3.75%
• He has dissented at every Fed meeting he's attended since September 2025, consistently pushing for rate cuts
• Market pricing currently implies no rate moves in either direction before year-end, despite Miran's advocacy for easing policy

US stocks rebounded on Monday with the Dow Jones up 333 points (0.74%) as investors assessed Middle East conflict developments and Trump's comments on Iran negotiations. The recovery follows the indexes' fifth consecutive weekly decline, their longest losing streak in nearly four years, amid geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices that have reignited inflation concerns.

• Oil price surge led energy stocks higher but revived inflation fears, with markets now pricing in zero Fed rate cuts for 2025 compared to expectations of two cuts before the conflict
• The Dow Jones entered correction territory last week, closing more than 10% below its record high, while the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 also fell into correction
• Trump warned Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face US attacks on energy infrastructure, though indicated 'serious discussions' were underway with a 'more reasonable regime'

Stock futures rose to start a holiday-shortened week after major indexes posted their fifth consecutive week of losses, with the Dow and Nasdaq entering correction territory. Markets are reacting to escalating Iran war developments, with oil prices hitting near four-year highs above $100 per barrel as President Trump discusses potential ground operations. Key focus this week includes Nike earnings and the March jobs report.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have both fallen more than 10% from record highs, entering correction territory after five straight weeks of losses
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures traded above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022 after Trump told The Financial Times his 'favorite' plan would be to 'take the oil in Iran,' likely requiring ground troops and extending the war
• Eli Lilly signed a deal worth up to $2.75 billion with AI drug developer Insilico Medicine, paying $115 million upfront for exclusive rights to commercialize any drugs that reach market, with about half of Insilico's 28 AI-developed drugs currently in clinical trials

U.S. markets are attempting to rebound after recording their worst week of 2026, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and oil market turmoil. Brent crude is on track for its largest monthly gain ever, rising 55% in March, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. President Trump has threatened military action if the strait isn't reopened and a peace deal isn't reached shortly.

• Oil prices jumped after Trump vowed to 'take the oil in Iran,' with Brent crude posting a record 55% monthly gain in March as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
• Trump agreed to pay TSA employees after a shutdown deal collapsed, as travelers face long security wait times and potentially higher airfares due to surging oil prices
• Meta's recent courtroom defeats over user impact research could create legal liability concerns for AI companies funding similar studies on their technology's societal implications

Economic sentiment and consumer confidence in Europe plummeted in March 2026 as the Iran war entered its fifth week, with both EU and euro area indicators falling below their long-term average of 100. The conflict has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices and raising fears of stagflation, while President Trump has sent mixed signals about potential military escalation versus peace negotiations.

• EU economic sentiment fell 1.5 points to 96.7 and euro area sentiment dropped 1.6 points to 96.6 in March, with consumer confidence hitting its lowest level since October 2023
• The ECB now expects 2026 economic growth of just 0.9% with inflation averaging 2.6% this year, prompting warnings from ECB President Lagarde about potential interest rate hikes
• European officials fear long-term economic damage from the conflict, as Iran's near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to push up global energy prices

US stock futures pointed to a firmer open on Monday with Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures all up around 0.6%, following a week of heavy selling that left indices down 2.8% to 5.25%. Markets attempted to recover despite ongoing uncertainty around the five-week-old Middle East conflict with Iran, mixed diplomatic signals, and rising oil prices reaching $101.30 per barrel.

• All three major US indices are down 7.5-7.9% from recent highs after four weeks of Middle East conflict, with WTI crude oil climbing 1.7% to $101.30 as concerns persist around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil passes
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told G7 members to expect the war to continue for two to four weeks, while Iran dismissed US proposals as 'unrealistic, illogical and excessive' and Trump suggested potential military operations including seizing Iran's oil infrastructure
• European markets opened higher with London's FTSE up 0.9%, while Asian markets were more cautious with Japanese and Indian benchmarks falling over 2%, as investors navigate geopolitical uncertainty ahead of quarter-end and Friday's Non-Farm Payroll release