General Market News

Brazil's government extended its 12% crude oil export tax for another 60 days, a measure first introduced in March during rising oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions. The trade committee Gecex will review the tax in 30 days, though officials had recently considered removing it due to softer oil prices. The tax revenue funds subsidies to shield consumers from inflation caused by fuel price volatility.

• The export tax was extended despite Brent crude trading around $76/barrel, well below the $118/barrel peak reached shortly after conflict erupted in late February
• Tax revenues are being used to fund fuel subsidies including for diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel and cooking gas
• Government officials recently began a 'gradual retreat' from subsidies following lower oil prices, with a decision on removing gasoline subsidies expected next week

The Indian government has approved a joint venture between Dixon Technologies and Chinese smartphone maker Vivo Mobile to manufacture smartphones domestically. The venture will be majority-owned by Dixon (51%) with Vivo holding 49%, and required senior-level government clearance due to regulations governing investments from countries sharing a land border with India.

• Dixon Technologies will hold 51% ownership while Vivo Mobile India holds 49% in the manufacturing joint venture
• The venture will produce smartphones and electronic devices as an original equipment manufacturer, initially handling Vivo's production orders
• The JV has flexibility to manufacture electronic products for other brands beyond Vivo, expanding its potential customer base

The Federal Reserve maintains an $8 trillion balance sheet while its Core PCE inflation gauge and M2 money supply both sit at the 90th percentile of their 12-month ranges, creating a disconnect between accommodative policy and rising inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.48% near 12-month highs, while the yield curve has flattened sharply from 0.74% to 0.35% in five months. This combination signals asymmetric risk as equity markets remain complacent with VIX at 17 despite bond market stress indicators.

• M2 money supply jumped $0.25 trillion in one month to $23.05 trillion while Core PCE rose to 130.08, both at 90.9th percentile of 12-month range, suggesting abundant liquidity amid persistent inflation
• The 10-year minus 2-year yield spread collapsed from 0.74% to 0.35% (hitting a low of 0.27% in June), now at the 4th percentile of its 12-month range, historically a precursor to slower growth
• Federal debt grew $3.17 trillion year-over-year to $39.39 trillion as of July 1, 2026, while the Fed holds rates at 3.75% despite inflation pressures, creating vulnerability for retirement portfolios positioned for continued calm

ASE Technology (ASX) reported record revenues in Q1 2026, driven by strong AI chip packaging demand and advanced packaging services. The company raised its 2026 capital spending plan and increased its Leading Edge Advanced Packaging (LEAP) revenue outlook by 10%, now expecting LEAP revenues to exceed $3.5 billion in 2026. ASE is expanding capacity to meet growing demand for AI-related semiconductor packaging across accelerators, power management, connectivity, and edge devices.

• ASX reported record Assembly, Testing and Materials revenues of NTD 112.4 billion in Q1 2026, up 2% sequentially and 30% year-over-year, with AI demand reducing typical seasonal slowdowns
• The company raised its 2026 capital spending and increased LEAP revenue guidance by 10% to over $3.5 billion, with consensus estimates projecting 19.6% revenue growth in 2026 and 22.4% in 2027
• ASX faces competition from Amkor Technology (partnering with TSMC in Arizona) and Intel (expanding Malaysian facilities), but maintains a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) despite trading at a premium valuation of 34.62X forward P/E versus the industry average of 31.42X

LATAM Airlines (LTM) closed at $54.50, up 14.9% over four weeks, with Wall Street analysts setting a mean price target of $68.58, indicating a potential 25.83% upside. The optimistic outlook is supported by analysts revising earnings estimates higher, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year increasing 19.3% over the last 30 days. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of ranked stocks.

• Eight analyst price targets range from $58.00 (6.4% upside) to $80.00 (46.8% upside) with a standard deviation of $6.64, showing moderate agreement among analysts
• The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased 19.3% in the last 30 days, with one upward revision and no negative revisions
• LTM holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), indicating it ranks in the top 20% of over 4,000 stocks based on earnings estimate factors

Morgan Stanley projects global M&A activity will reach a record $6.4 trillion in 2026, surpassing the 2021 deal boom, driven by buoyant equity markets, renewed corporate confidence, and a more lenient regulatory environment under the Trump administration. Deal announcements surged over 64% in Q2 compared to the prior year, with momentum across software, utilities, energy, and healthcare sectors.

• Announced deals jumped more than 64% year-over-year in Q2 2026, with completions rising over 33%, signaling a broad-based recovery after years of high interest rates and volatility
• Alternative asset managers hold approximately $4.3 trillion in dry powder available for deployment, with sponsor-backed M&A announcements up more than 10% in Q2
• The Trump administration's 'lighter-touch regulatory regime' has created a more constructive M&A environment, easing concerns about aggressive antitrust enforcement that previously deterred large transactions

Energy Transfer LP, one of North America's largest midstream energy companies operating nearly 140,000 miles of pipelines, expects nearly 90% of its 2026 earnings to come from fee-based contracts, limiting commodity price exposure. The company is advancing the Hugh Brinson Pipeline expansion, adding nearly 1.5 Bcf/d of capacity through fully contracted, long-term agreements with investment-grade customers. This fee-based business model provides stable, predictable cash flows that support sustainable earnings growth and consistent distributions to unitholders.

• Energy Transfer expects 90% of 2026 earnings from fee-based contracts and only 10% from commodity exposure, enhancing earnings visibility and reducing volatility
• The Hugh Brinson Pipeline expansion features approximately 400 miles of 42-inch pipeline with nearly 1.5 Bcf/d capacity, fully contracted with investment-grade customers
• ET units gained 4% over three months, outperforming the industry's 2.9% rally, with consensus estimates showing 18.18% earnings growth for 2026 and 6.91% for 2027

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated he does not expect a sustained rise in energy prices despite renewed Middle East conflict, anticipating oil prices will decline over the next 6-12 months. Williams declined to specify the Fed's next move at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, while officials navigate tensions between persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. He also emphasized that any Fed balance sheet changes should prioritize banking system safety over the size of asset reductions.

• Williams expects energy prices to peak and decline despite Middle East war resuming, aligning with market forecasts for oil price cooling over 6-12 months
• The Fed is holding its target rate range at 3.5%-3.75%, with officials having penciled in potential rate increases this year amid above-target inflation
• Any changes to the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet should focus on strengthening financial system stability rather than achieving maximum asset reduction, according to Williams

US stock markets opened mixed on Thursday, with the Dow Jones falling 0.05% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained modestly, driven by strong semiconductor performance. Chip stocks rallied despite renewed US-Iran military tensions in the Middle East, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF rising 3.88% led by Micron's 7.2% surge. Markets remained focused on geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve rate outlook.

• Semiconductor stocks led gains with SMH ETF up 3.88%, Micron +7.2%, and Sandisk +6%, while other tech names declined including Meta (-3.4%) after announcing AI chip production plans
• US military launched strikes on Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, with Iran responding by attacking US assets in Kuwait and Bahrain, though President Trump said he did not expect full-scale war
• Economic data showed declining jobless claims indicating labor market stability, while traders price in at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike by year-end according to LSEG data

The Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes, released July 8 under Chair Kevin Warsh, cite the AI boom as a contributor to rising inflation, driven by heavy investments in AI stocks like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. The Fed is taking a hawkish stance with odds of zero rate cuts in 2026 reaching 79%, and some members even signaling potential rate hikes.

• The Fed's first FOMC report under Chair Kevin Warsh identifies AI stock investments and Middle East conflict as factors impacting asset prices and inflation
• Odds of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 surged to 79% on Polymarket, with some FOMC members signaling potential rate hikes instead
• Wall Street analysts and economists including Peter Schiff and Robert Kiyosaki warn of an imminent AI stock market crash similar to previous bubble bursts

European blue-chip companies are forecast to report 15.3% earnings growth in Q2 2026, driven primarily by surging energy sector profits from higher oil prices. However, excluding energy companies, earnings growth drops sharply to just 6.0%, revealing weaker underlying momentum across the broader market.

• Revenue growth follows a similar pattern: STOXX 600 sales forecast to rise 10.5% overall but only 3.9% when energy sector is excluded
• Energy company earnings are expected to more than double in Q2, far outpacing all other industries
• Eight of 10 sectors now expected to show growth compared to five sectors in Q1, indicating gradual broadening of gains despite energy dominance

US stock futures showed a mixed outlook on July 9, 2026, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8% as chip stocks rallied, while Dow futures slipped 0.1%. This followed a volatile session where the Dow fell 577 points but the Nasdaq gained 0.2%. Oil prices fluctuated around $74 per barrel amid escalating US-Iran military conflict in the Middle East.

• The US struck 90 additional Iranian targets (170 total in 48 hours), while Iran retaliated with attacks on US military sites in Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait
• A rotation within tech stocks saw chip stocks like SanDisk and Nvidia gaining in pre-market trading while hyperscalers like Microsoft and Alphabet declined
• Oil prices remained volatile between $72-$75 per barrel, with markets 'normalizing' to Middle East tensions despite White House preparing for potential weeks-long fighting around the Strait of Hormuz

Semiconductor stocks AMD, Intel, and Nvidia showed bullish momentum on July 9, 2026, with technical analysis suggesting continued upward movement. The article provides price targets and support levels for each chipmaker, indicating a broader positive trend in the microchip sector.

• AMD is targeting the $580 level with support at $450, while Intel aims for $140 with psychological support at $100
• Nvidia broke above the $200 barrier and its 50-day EMA with strong volume, targeting $215 and potentially $230
• All three stocks showed bullish technical signals with short-term pullbacks expected to offer buying opportunities for traders

Semiconductor stocks rallied in pre-market trading on July 9, 2026, lifting Nasdaq futures 0.51% while Dow futures declined 0.10% as investors digest divided Federal Reserve policymaker views on interest rates. Fed minutes revealed committee members are split between hawks wanting rate hikes if inflation persists and doves preferring to wait, placing focus on next week's CPI report as the key data point for policy direction.

• Chip stocks led gains with Micron up 3.4% and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF rising 1.8% in premarket, showing sustained momentum beyond a single-day event
• Fed policymakers unanimously voted to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% but internal divisions emerged, with next week's CPI data expected to break the tie on future rate decisions
• Geopolitical volatility from U.S.-Iran tensions caused oil price swings, with Wells Fargo maintaining S&P 500 year-end target of 7,800-8,000 if Gulf tensions don't escalate further

Indonesia is raising its biodiesel blend mandate from 40% to 50% (B50), which will increase crude palm oil consumption to 16.3-17 million metric tons from 15.2 million tons, according to Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia. The program aims to reduce Indonesia's reliance on imported diesel fuel and is expected to cut this year's fuel import bill by $9.41 billion.

• The B50 mandate is expected to save 170 trillion rupiah ($9.41 billion) in fuel imports in the current year, compared to 133 trillion rupiah saved under the B40 program in 2025
• Indonesia will require 16.7-18 million kilolitres of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) under the new mandate, up from 15.64 million kilolitres allocated under B40
• President Prabowo Subianto pushed for a B100 mandate (100% biodiesel), but ministers determined B50 would be sufficient to eliminate diesel imports, with research continuing toward a 60% blend

Despite recent challenges for solar stocks, Deutsche Bank upgraded First Solar (FSLR), citing attractive valuation and an upcoming Commerce Department ruling on Section 232 tariffs expected next month as a key catalyst. Clean power currently accounts for roughly 90% of new U.S. electrical capacity additions, according to the American Clean Power Association CEO, while Bernstein identifies existing nuclear restart projects at Constellation Energy and Vistra as near-term winners over small modular reactors.

• First Solar upgrade hinges on upcoming Section 232 tariff decision by Commerce Department next month; positive ruling could benefit solar stocks while negative outcome (higher tariffs/quotas) could pressure shares
• Clean energy represents 90% of new grid capacity with solar and storage leading; five offshore wind projects under construction with three already delivering power to coastal population centers
• Bernstein names Constellation Energy (CEG), Vistra (VST), and Cameco (CCJ) as top nuclear picks, favoring existing plant restarts over second-wave small modular reactor projects

US stock futures rose on Thursday, with Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 0.61% as oil prices retreated from recent highs driven by Iran tensions. Semiconductor stocks led premarket gains, with Micron up 3.5% and AMD and Intel rising over 2.5%, while investors await weekly jobless claims data and monitor Fed policy signals that suggest potential rate increases remain on the table.

• Oil prices eased after spiking to two-week highs following renewed Iran-Gulf tensions, helping calm equity markets and restore appetite for growth stocks despite ongoing geopolitical concerns.
• Fed meeting minutes revealed some policymakers saw a case for raising rates, with markets now pricing at least one rate increase by year-end as officials remain cautious about oil-driven inflation shocks.
• Chip stocks rebounded sharply with analyst support intact: Bank of America reiterated Buy on Micron, UBS lifted DRAM forecasts, Goldman raised AMD target, and HSBC doubled Intel target, reinforcing confidence in the AI hardware cycle.

The United States is increasingly relying on foreign investment in equities rather than debt to fund its deficits, creating new risks for the dollar, according to Deutsche Bank. The shift means the dollar is now more exposed to volatile sectors like AI-driven tech stocks, rather than the countercyclical stability of Treasury demand. This change marks a departure from traditional 'exorbitant privilege' dynamics that allowed the U.S. to borrow freely as the reserve currency issuer.

• The U.S. faces twin deficits totaling over $2 trillion (current account deficit of $1.12 trillion and trade deficit of $1 trillion in 2025), making foreign capital flows critical to government funding
• Geopolitical tensions are deterring investors from U.S. debt while the AI boom drives capital into equities, making the dollar more cyclical and 'leveraged to AI' rather than a safe-haven asset
• Despite long-term structural concerns, the dollar has recovered almost half of 2025's nearly 10% decline, boosted by U.S.-Israeli war on Iran uncertainty, expected Fed rate hikes, and record AI-related capital inflows

U.S.-Iran military tensions escalated with reciprocal strikes, though President Trump indicated a full-scale war would not restart. Oil markets remained relatively stable with Brent crude holding below $80/barrel despite the flare-up. Meanwhile, Fed meeting minutes revealed an evenly divided debate on interest rates, with some members citing a case for immediate hikes amid broadening inflation concerns.

• Brent crude traded around $78/barrel Thursday morning, near Wednesday's levels after initially rising more than 5%, as markets weighed Trump's assurance that any conflict would be 'over very quickly'
• Fed June meeting minutes showed 'a few participants' noted potential for immediate rate hikes, with concerns about 'more broad-based' price pressures; futures now imply 38 basis points of tightening through January 2027
• SK Hynix's $28 billion U.S. facility was oversubscribed more than seven times, while Broadcom rallied on Apple's chip spending plans, briefly lifting chip stocks and the Nasdaq

India has eliminated import duties of 7.5% and 5% on certain electronics and smartphone components, a policy change that will benefit manufacturers like Apple and Xiaomi. The exemption, valid until March 31, 2029, covers wireless charging modules, displays, and lithium-ion cells. This move supports India's goal to expand electronics manufacturing to $500 billion by fiscal year 2030.

• The duty exemption applies to key components including wireless charging modules, medical and automotive displays, and lithium-ion cells for batteries
• Industry experts say the policy will boost cost competitiveness and domestic value addition, potentially spurring investment in battery production for electronics and electric vehicles
• India's smartphone production has grown 28-fold over the past decade to 5.45 trillion rupees ($57 billion) in 2024/25