Trading Day: Summits, in Beijing and stocks
Key Points
- Only 53% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average versus the typical 77% when the index hits record highs, indicating weak market breadth that Goldman says can persist 'for months'
- Asian tech giants are flexing muscle as SK Hynix nears $1 trillion market cap and TSMC ramps up capacity, with all three major chipmakers serving the 'Mag 7' U.S. tech companies
- UK political instability emerged as Health Minister resigned and called for leadership contest against PM Starmer, though UK markets showed no clear 'sell UK' signal with falling gilt yields
AI Summary
Market Summary: Global Stocks Hit Records Amid AI Rally and Political Uncertainty
Market Performance:
Global equity markets reached fresh record highs on Thursday, led by a relentless technology rally. The S&P 500, Nikkei, KOSPI, and MSCI All Country indexes hit new peaks, while Shanghai Composite reached an 11-year high. The tech-heavy sector surged 1.9%, though market breadth remained concerningly narrow.
AI Sector Dominance:
AI-related stocks continued their explosive rally. Cerebras jumped 90% on its Nasdaq debut, while Nvidia gained 13% and AMD rose 7%. However, FTSE Russell analysis revealed that just 13 stocks (out of 4,250) generated nearly 50% of the FTSE All-World's April returns—all AI-related. Only 53% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, well below the typical 77% seen at record highs.
Asia's Tech Surge:
Asian tech giants demonstrated strong momentum during President Trump's China summit. South Korea's SK Hynix approached $1 trillion market capitalization, while Taiwan's TSMC aggressively ramped up production capacity. These manufacturers supply hardware to Nvidia and the "Magnificent 7" U.S. tech companies.
Other Market Movements:
- FX: USD index rose 0.4%; USD/JPY climbed above 158 post-intervention; Chinese yuan hit a new 3-year low near 6.78
- Bonds: Yields fell across curves; U.S. yields down 4 bps, UK gilts dropped 8 bps at the long end
- Commodities: Oil remained flat; natural gas declined 5%
Political Developments:
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced mounting pressure after Health Minister Wes Streeting resigned and called for a leadership contest. The British pound slumped, though gilt yields fell, providing mixed signals for UK assets.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 80% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 82% |