General Market News

Sberbank has revised Russia's 2026 GDP growth forecast downward to 0.5-1% from 1-1.5% following a challenging first quarter that saw the economy contract 1.8% in January and February. The downgrade reflects the impact of high interest rates, tax increases, a strong rouble, and weak oil prices before the Iran war began.

• Mining and manufacturing sectors were hit hardest, with significant slowdown in consumer spending affecting retail trade and construction sector stagnation in Q1
• Sberbank forecasts 2026 inflation at 6-6.5%, notably above the central bank's 4.5-5.5% prediction
• Deputy CEO Taras Skvortsov attributed the poor performance to 'tight monetary conditions' during the first quarter

US stock futures traded mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited major Big Tech earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Market sentiment was dampened by a report showing OpenAI missed internal growth targets, raising questions about AI monetization amid stretched tech valuations. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, but investors will scrutinize Chair Powell's commentary for clues on future policy direction.

• OpenAI reportedly missed internal targets for weekly users and revenue, intensifying scrutiny over whether massive AI spending by tech giants is translating into actual commercial returns
• Robinhood fell 10% premarket after missing Q1 profit expectations, while NXP Semiconductors surged 16.1% on above-consensus Q2 revenue and profit guidance
• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates unchanged, but any hawkish shift in Powell's language on inflation or economic conditions could pressure equities and Treasury yields

London's FTSE 100 fell 0.7% on April 29, marking its seventh decline in eight sessions, as investors reacted cautiously to mixed corporate earnings and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran war. Major companies including AstraZeneca, GSK, and Lloyds declined despite posting better-than-expected quarterly results.

• Blue-chip stocks declined despite strong earnings: AstraZeneca fell 1.4%, GSK dropped 2.1%, and Lloyds dipped 1.4%, all after beating profit expectations but maintaining existing forecasts
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as U.S.-Iran war negotiations stall, with President Trump rejecting Tehran's latest proposal, contributing to market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting
• DCC surged 16% after announcing it is reviewing a cash acquisition offer from a consortium of U.S. investment firms Energy Capital Partners and KKR

Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are set to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday, representing a critical test for the AI-driven stock market rally. The four hyperscalers collectively account for over $10 trillion in market cap and 17% of the S&P 500's weighting, with planned AI infrastructure spending exceeding $600 billion this year. Investors will scrutinize whether massive capital expenditures are translating into revenue growth, with implications for the broader AI sector including chip stocks.

• Capital spending among the four companies plus Oracle is expected to rise from 50% of operating cash flow in 2024 to nearly 90% by 2027, requiring proof that investments generate returns within the next few quarters
• Options markets are pricing in post-earnings stock price swings of 4% to 7.1%, with all four companies reporting simultaneously creating potential for heightened volatility across AI-related stocks
• The semiconductor index (SOX) has surged 40% this year and doubled over the past year on hyperscaler spending, making chip stocks particularly vulnerable to any signs of reduced AI infrastructure investment

Melrose Industries, owner of GKN Aerospace, reported an 11% increase in first-quarter revenue driven by strong performance in wide-body jets, engines, and military businesses. The company flagged inflationary pressure from higher freight costs amid Middle East tensions and expressed concern about potential impacts on civil flying hours from reduced jet fuel availability. Melrose maintained its 2026 revenue outlook of £3.75-3.95 billion despite near-term geopolitical uncertainties.

• First-quarter revenue jumped 11%, supported by wide-body aircraft, engines, and repairs/military segments, though the company faces freight cost inflation from Middle East conflict disruptions
• Melrose supplies Boeing and Airbus but has no operating footprint in the Middle East and minimal direct supply chain exposure to the region
• Company reiterated 2026 guidance of £3.75-3.95 billion revenue and £700-750 million adjusted operating profit, with analysts citing 'attractive structural growth story' despite geopolitical concerns

China's independent refiners continue importing Iranian oil despite intensified U.S. sanctions, but purchasing is slowing due to severely negative refining margins and rising Iranian crude prices. The U.S. imposed a full blockade on Iranian oil shipping on April 13 and sanctioned major Chinese refiner Hengli Petrochemical, though analysts expect Chinese buying patterns to persist as long as Iranian supply remains available.

• Chinese 'teapot' refiners buy roughly 90% of Iran's oil shipments, importing a record 1.8 million barrels per day in March, with at least 140-155 million barrels currently in transit to China
• Domestic refining margins have collapsed to negative $77.50 per metric ton (a one-year low) as government-regulated fuel prices lag crude cost increases from Middle East tensions
• Iranian Light crude has flipped from a discount to trading at parity or a small premium to ICE Brent for the first time, eroding demand from price-sensitive Chinese buyers

President Donald Trump threatened Iran via Truth Social with an AI-generated image of himself holding a gun, demanding the country 'get smart soon' on signing a non-nuclear deal. The post comes amid a blockaded Strait of Hormuz and stalled negotiations, with Trump canceling scheduled talks and rejecting Iran's latest proposal to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting U.S. port blockades.

• Trump posted the threatening message at 4 a.m. ET Wednesday with AI imagery showing explosions and text reading 'NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!'
• Negotiations remain deadlocked after Trump canceled a planned trip to Islamabad and rejected Tehran's proposal to postpone nuclear talks while reopening the Strait of Hormuz
• Oil futures rose sharply following the post, with WTI up 2.82% to $102.75 and Brent up 3% to $114.62, further complicated by UAE's announced exit from OPEC on May 1

U.S. Treasury yields remained largely flat on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision at what could be Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed chair. The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% amid stubborn inflation and a resilient labor market. Kevin Warsh, Powell's successor, is on track for Senate confirmation.

• The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.358%, while the 2-year yield remained at 3.848% and the 30-year yield was little changed at 4.946%
• The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious pause on rate cuts as inflation remains sticky at around 3%, with policymakers signaling they will 'sit tight for a little while' to assess economic conditions
• Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Powell's successor appears assured after Sen. Thom Tillis ended his blockade following the DOJ dropping its investigation into Powell, with the Senate Banking Committee set to vote on Wednesday

Smokey Bones abruptly closed multiple locations across the US on April 28, including its Colonie, NY restaurant, giving employees same-day notice of permanent shutdowns. The closures follow parent company FAT Brands Inc.'s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in January and contradict earlier promises that operations would continue normally during restructuring.

• Restaurants in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Rhode Island shuttered simultaneously, with employees learning the morning of closures that operations were ending immediately
• The chain's website now lists all locations as closed every day of the week, despite FAT Brands stating in January that restaurants would 'remain open and operating as usual' during bankruptcy proceedings
• Smokey Bones has rapidly contracted from roughly 130 locations at its peak to 26 by 2025, with 15 'underperforming units' already closed in September 2025 before this latest wave of shutdowns

The European Central Bank and Bank of England will announce monetary policy decisions this week amid rising inflation driven by the Iran war and concerns about stagflation. Both central banks are expected to keep rates on hold at 2% (ECB) and 3.75% (BOE) despite inflation above their 2% targets, as March data shows the conflict is already weighing on economic growth and confidence.

• Euro zone inflation stands at 2.5% while U.K. inflation hit levels above central banks' 2% targets, with energy prices spiking due to the Iran conflict that began in late February.
• Economists expect both banks to maintain current rates and 'look through' the inflation noise, with potential ECB rate hikes of 25 basis points possible at the June meeting if second-round effects emerge.
• BOE's nine-member committee is expected to vote 8-1 to hold rates unchanged for the rest of 2026, prioritizing growth concerns over inflation risks as surveys suggest a more front-loaded economic hit than in 2022.

Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq falling 0.9% as semiconductor and technology stocks tumbled amid concerns over OpenAI's slower-than-expected growth. Oil prices surged over 3% to $99.50 per barrel due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting with rate cuts not expected until December.

• Major chipmakers led declines: ARM Holdings dropped nearly 6%, with Applied Materials, Broadcom, AMD, and Nvidia all falling 2-3% on concerns that OpenAI missed user growth targets and revenue goals for ChatGPT
• WTI crude oil jumped 3.2% to $99.50 per barrel, trading roughly 50% above pre-conflict levels as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid US-Iran tensions
• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady, with market expectations for rate cuts pushed back to December due to rising inflation driven by higher energy prices

Demand for Huawei's Ascend 950 AI chips has surged following DeepSeek's V4 model launch, which is optimized to run on Huawei hardware. Major Chinese tech firms including ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are scrambling to secure chip orders as US export restrictions limit access to Nvidia's advanced processors. This marks a pivotal shift toward China's domestic semiconductor ecosystem, though supply constraints are expected to persist through 2026.

• Huawei's Ascend 950PR outperforms Nvidia's H20 chip (banned in China) but still trails the H200, creating market opportunity as H200 shipments remain stalled due to US-China disagreements
• Huawei plans to ship approximately 750,000 units of the 950PR chip in 2026, with mass production starting in April, though output will likely fall short of demand due to US equipment restrictions
• DeepSeek V4 deployed immediately on Alibaba Cloud Bailian and Tencent Cloud platforms at launch, with pricing expected to decline in H2 2026 once Huawei supernodes ship at scale

British luxury carmaker Aston Martin reported a narrower first-quarter loss on April 29 and secured a new funding agreement worth 50 million pounds ($67.52 million) with its top investor. The development signals ongoing efforts by the struggling automaker to strengthen its financial position.

• Aston Martin's Q1 loss narrowed compared to the previous period, showing some financial improvement
• The company signed a $67.52 million (50 million pounds) funding deal with its largest investor
• The funding arrangement comes as the luxury carmaker continues working to stabilize its finances

Jerome Powell's tenure as Federal Reserve chair is expected to end as the Senate votes on Kevin Warsh's confirmation on Fed Day. The FOMC is certain to hold rates unchanged, with futures pricing no policy changes until 2027, but uncertainty looms over how Warsh will handle White House pressure for aggressive rate cuts. Markets are cautious amid Fed leadership transition and geopolitical tensions with Iran.

• Fed funds futures price 100% probability of a rate hold, with no expected policy changes until well into 2027
• Powell's legacy centers on his independence amid relentless pressure from President Trump, who originally appointed him; it remains unclear if Powell will stay on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends May 15
• Asian chipmakers declined after reports that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets, raising concerns about sustainability of massive data center spending

The U.S. Treasury warned financial institutions on Tuesday that they risk sanctions if they engage with Chinese 'teapot' refineries processing Iranian oil. China purchases approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports, with small independent refineries accounting for the majority of imports. The warning comes as part of Trump's 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran and ahead of a planned U.S. visit to Beijing.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Iran's main export terminal on Kharg Island is nearing storage capacity, which could force Tehran to cut production and lose about $170 million in daily revenue
• Iranian crude is typically transported via 'shadow fleet' tankers with manipulated location data, often relabeled as 'Malaysian blend' through ship-to-ship transfers to disguise origins
• The Treasury has already sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, one of China's largest teapot refineries, along with four others, and is targeting port operators and logistics providers in Shandong Province

Australia's first-quarter inflation reached 4.09%, the highest level in over two years, though slightly below the 4.2% forecast. The Reserve Bank of Australia is considering potential interest rate hikes as inflation remains above its 2%-3% target range, with rising oil prices and Middle East tensions adding to inflation risks.

• Inflation hit 4.09% in Q1, below the 4.2% Reuters consensus but marking the highest rate since Q4 2023
• RBA policymakers agreed that interest rates may need to rise further, with the board viewing current inflation as 'too high' and citing oil price increases as a key risk
• Australia's economy grew 2.6% year-over-year in Q4, its fastest pace in two years and above expectations

Peru's state oil company Petroperu urgently needs $2 billion in loans backed by government guarantees to avoid halting fuel production at its refineries amid a severe debt crisis of $7.9 billion. The company warns fuel shortages could occur 'in the coming days' without immediate private financing, as high oil prices from Middle East conflicts strain operations.

• Two major refineries (Talara and Conchan) risk stopping production; Talara currently operates at 60,000 barrels per day, well below its 95,000-bpd capacity due to insufficient funds to purchase crude
• Petroperu's debt crisis stems from a $6 billion Talara refinery modernization that exceeded its original budget and resulted in the company losing its investment-grade rating in 2022
• Despite receiving $5.3 billion in state support over the past three years, private banks are willing to provide only $2 billion of the company's total $2.5 billion financing need

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which oversees the grid for 15 U.S. states in the Midwest and South, announced its annual capacity auction shows sufficient electricity supply to meet peak summer demand. However, auction prices of $424 per megawatt-day signal elevated blackout risks remain. The auction cleared 3.5% above MISO's summer planning reserve margin target of 7.9%.

• Auction prices of $424 per megawatt-day indicate a tight balance between supply and demand, with elevated blackout risks persisting across much of MISO's territory
• Available capacity exceeded the target buffer by 3.5%, clearing above the summer planning reserve margin target of 7.9%
• Regional grid operators across the U.S. face challenges maintaining adequate reserve margins due to surging demand from energy-intensive data centers and electric vehicles

French utility EDF has delayed its decision to sell a stake in Italian subsidiary Edison, valued at 7-10 billion euros, due to disruptions in LNG supplies from Qatar caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The conflict has blocked exports through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged QatarEnergy facilities, which is a long-term supplier to Edison. EDF had been exploring options including a minority stake sale or IPO to raise funds for nuclear reactor investment.

• EDF and advisers agreed at a Monday Paris meeting to monitor the situation for weeks before deciding next steps, with a reassessment planned for late May
• The war on Iran has nearly halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with QatarEnergy cancelling Edison's LNG cargoes through mid-June and potentially extending force majeure beyond that date
• Edison is valued between 7-10 billion euros ($8-11.6 billion), with EDF working with Intesa Sanpaolo IMI and Lazard as financial advisers on strategic options

US stocks fell on Tuesday as concerns about OpenAI's revenue targets and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 dropped 0.49%, the Nasdaq fell 0.9%, and the Dow declined 0.05%. Technology and semiconductor stocks led the decline, while investors await major earnings reports from tech giants.

• OpenAI reportedly missed internal revenue and user targets, with its CFO warning about potential struggles to meet future computing contract obligations, triggering a 3% drop in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF and declines in Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD
• Oil prices surged over 3% with WTI crude reaching $99.93 per barrel and Brent at $111.26 amid ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas
• Major tech earnings loom large with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft reporting Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, representing roughly 44% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization