General Market News

Sandwich chain Jersey Mike's has filed for a U.S. IPO, joining a resurgent market for new listings after second-quarter proceeds surpassed $100 billion. The company, which operates over 3,300 locations across the U.S. and Canada, was acquired by Blackstone for around $8 billion in 2023 and could seek to raise more than $1 billion at a valuation of at least $12 billion.

• The IPO market has rebounded following brief volatility from U.S.-Iran tensions, with high-profile listings like SpaceX's record $75 billion IPO driving second-quarter proceeds past $100 billion
• Jersey Mike's operates more than 3,300 fast-casual sub sandwich franchise locations and plans to open 400 stores in the UK and Ireland
• Blackstone acquired Jersey Mike's for approximately $8 billion last year; the company will list on NYSE under ticker symbol 'JMKE' with Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and J.P. Morgan as lead underwriters

The U.S. labor force participation rate fell to 61.5% in June 2026, the lowest level since March 2021 and the lowest outside the Covid era in 50 years. The decline was driven by 720,000 workers exiting the labor force, with the June unemployment rate drop to 4.2% masking this exodus rather than reflecting genuine job market improvement.

• The labor force shrank by 720,000 in June alone, while those counted as not in the labor force jumped by 832,000, suggesting workers are giving up their job search rather than finding employment
• Prime-age workers (ages 25-54) saw the biggest participation drop, falling 0.6 percentage points to 83.3%, undermining explanations that attribute the decline solely to retiring Baby Boomers or immigration changes
• Over the past year, the labor force is down by just over 1 million workers, while the number of employed has fallen by 1.06 million, indicating a concerning trend beyond normal monthly volatility

Sandwich chain Jersey Mike's filed for an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker 'JMKE', reporting cumulative same-store sales growth of 50% from 2020 through 2025. The company achieved net income of $55 million on $724 million in revenue last year, with system sales reaching $4.3 billion across nearly 3,300 locations, making it the second-largest hoagie chain behind Subway.

• Jersey Mike's reported 2025 same-store sales growth of 3% and net income jumped from $5 million in 2024 to $55 million in 2025, with revenue increasing from $653 million to $724 million
• Nearly all of Jersey Mike's 3,300 locations are franchised, with about 2,000 opened in the last decade, generating revenue primarily from royalties and advertising fees
• Blackstone acquired a stake in Jersey Mike's in a deal reportedly valuing the chain at roughly $8 billion, with founder Peter Cancro retaining 'meaningful equity' and a board seat

PJM, the largest U.S. power grid serving 67 million people, is bracing for record demand of 166.2 gigawatts on Thursday due to extreme heat and surging data center consumption. Wholesale power costs have surged 68% to $40 billion in the first five months of the year, with data centers accounting for $3.8 billion of the $16.25 billion increase. The grid operator warns it has no spare capacity beyond next year.

• Data center demand contributed $3.8 billion (23%) of the $16.25 billion year-over-year increase in wholesale power costs across PJM's system
• Power line congestion in northern Virginia, home to the world's largest data center cluster, drove price spikes exceeding $2,000 per megawatt hour this week
• Reserve payments to keep coal and gas plants available nearly doubled to $1.1 billion from $531 million year-over-year, signaling grid strain

Goldman Sachs announced it will provide a one-time $1,000 matching contribution to Trump Accounts for eligible children of employees born between 2025 and 2028. This matches the federal government's $1,000 seed contribution to the accounts. The move makes Goldman Sachs part of a growing number of U.S. companies participating in the public-private investment initiative.

• The $1,000 corporate match applies to employees with children born between 2025-2028 who enroll in Trump Accounts
• CEO David Solomon emphasized that starting early and staying invested long-term is key to building financial security for American families
• Goldman Sachs joins other U.S. companies supporting the Trump Accounts program, which aims to instill savings and investment habits in the next generation

Kuwait's crude oil production surged to 1.65 million barrels per day in June, with peak output reaching 1.9 million bpd in late June, as the OPEC member increases exports following a U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement. This marks a significant recovery from May's production of just 580,000 bpd, though still below pre-war levels of 2.5 million bpd.

• June production of 1.65 million bpd represents nearly a threefold increase from May's 580,000 bpd output
• Production peaked at 1.9 million bpd during the last 10 days of June as Kuwait ramped up Gulf exports
• Current output remains approximately 34% below pre-war production levels of 2.5 million bpd

U.S. factory orders declined 1.3% in May, primarily due to a 51.8% drop in commercial aircraft bookings, though this was better than the forecasted 1.8% decline. Despite the monthly decrease, orders remained 5.1% higher year-over-year, supported by strong demand in AI-related sectors like computers and electronic products, which helped offset impacts from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

• Boeing received only 27 aircraft orders in May compared to 136 in April, driving the sharp decline in commercial aircraft bookings after April's 167.4% surge
• AI spending boom drove gains in key sectors: computer and electronic product orders rose 0.2% monthly and 13.0% year-over-year, while machinery orders surged 2.1%
• Core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft), a key measure of business spending plans, rebounded 1.4% in May, indicating continued business investment despite monthly volatility

U.S. major indices experienced choppy trading on July 2, 2026, following a weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report. The Dow Jones gained 0.74%, the S&P 500 rose 0.38%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.31%. Markets were set to close Friday for the holiday, limiting immediate follow-through trading.

• The NFP miss triggered initial volatility as markets interpreted weaker jobs data as potentially supporting lower interest rates ahead
• Technical levels remain intact: Nasdaq 100 facing resistance at 30,700 with support at 29,000; Dow targeting 53,000 with a floor at 52,000; S&P 500 eyeing 7,650 after breaking above a consolidation triangle
• Holiday closure on Friday (July 3) expected to keep trading quiet through end of week, with full market activity resuming Monday

Stock market gains created nearly 1 million new millionaires globally in 2025, bringing the total millionaire population to 58 million, according to a UBS report. The United States accounted for over 440,000 of these new millionaires, averaging more than 1,200 per day. Global personal wealth surged 10.8%, the largest increase since 2017, though wealth gains were concentrated among richer households while median wealth declined in most markets.

• The U.S. stock market rose approximately 18% in 2025, with wealthier individuals benefiting disproportionately due to greater exposure to financial markets
• U.S. median wealth per adult declined nearly 20% from 2020 to 2025, while average wealth increased about 10% over the same period, highlighting growing wealth inequality
• The world's 58 million millionaires now control nearly half of global wealth, approximately $250.6 trillion, with over 40% of all millionaires residing in the United States

Investment manager Meb Faber warns that despite long-term optimism about U.S. stock market performance, current high valuations suggest potential for significant near-term declines. While $1 invested in U.S. stocks in 1800 would now be worth over $4 million, Faber notes the market's cyclical nature means a 50% drop by 2030 would be 'totally normal.'

• U.S. stocks currently trade at a CAPE ratio in the low 40s (versus historical average of 18), making them the most expensive globally for the first time, comparable to late 1990s valuations that preceded muted returns
• Foreign and emerging markets trade at significantly lower valuations (low teens to low 20s), with the cheapest bucket of countries returning 55% last year despite being largely abandoned by investors
• Historical precedent exists for dominant markets declining: Japan fell from being one-third of global market cap in the 1980s to just 5% today after three decades of stagnation

U.S. stock markets rose on Thursday after June jobs data came in weaker than expected, with only around 100,000-110,000 jobs added versus forecasts of 115,000. The disappointing employment report reduced market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, pushing Treasury yields lower and lifting equities.

• Probability of at least one Fed rate hike this year dropped to 75.6% from approximately 84% before the jobs report release
• The Dow Jones gained 0.49% (256 points), S&P 500 rose 0.39%, and Nasdaq added 0.24% as investors rotated into defensive sectors
• Global markets showed mixed performance with South Korea's Kospi plunging 7.89% and chip stocks like SK Hynix falling 14.57%, while European markets recovered with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.6%

US employers added 57,000 jobs in June, falling short of the 115,000 estimate and ending a three-month streak of gains above 100,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% from 4.3%, suggesting labor market stability despite slower hiring. The steady employment picture may strengthen the Federal Reserve's case for raising interest rates rather than cutting them.

• June job gains of 57,000 missed economist estimates of 115,000 new positions
• Unemployment rate improved to 4.2% from 4.3% in the previous month
• April and May payroll figures were revised downward by a combined 74,000 jobs

US employers added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026, roughly half of economists' predictions, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised prior months downward by 74,000 jobs total, signaling slower job growth amid economic uncertainty driven by Middle East conflict and elevated inflation.

• May job figures were revised down from 172,000 to 129,000, and April figures from 179,000 to 148,000, showing weaker momentum than initially reported
• Healthcare added only 22,000 jobs versus its 38,000 monthly average, while hospitality/leisure unexpectedly declined by 61,000 despite World Cup matches being hosted in the US
• The weak jobs report makes it more likely the Federal Reserve will maintain its inflation focus at its late July meeting, with most Fed officials projecting at least one rate hike before year-end as inflation reached 4.2% in May

The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in June 2026, missing economist forecasts amid elevated inflation and uncertainty from the Iran war's economic impact. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below the 4.3% estimate, while job additions came in under the predicted 110,000.

• Job growth fell short of the 110,000 additions estimated by LSEG-polled economists
• Unemployment rate declined to 4.2%, better than the expected 4.3%
• Economic headwinds include elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran war

A CNBC analysis reveals that approximately 70% of all closed prediction markets on Polymarket from 2021 to May 2026 saw under $10,000 in trading volume, with similar patterns on competitor Kalshi. Low-volume markets expose traders to higher volatility, wider bid-ask spreads, and bot-dominated trading activity. The findings raise questions about reliability and accuracy of thinly traded prediction markets, though experts disagree on whether volume directly correlates with accuracy.

• Over 80% of volume in markets under $10,000 comes from bots, which earned roughly $1.2 million in shallow markets compared to $35.1 million in markets exceeding $10 million in volume
• Only 8% of markets on Polymarket and Kalshi reached $1 million in volume, with Morgan Stanley strategists noting that 'most quoted probabilities sit in the thinly traded tail - where calibration is weakest'
• Week-long markets with high-profile topics (Iran war, Trump, Musk) had the highest number of contracts exceeding $1 million, as traders prefer short-term markets close to resolution with many participants

The U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, significantly missing the expected 115,000 job gain according to Dow Jones consensus. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%, compared to the forecasted 4.3%. This weaker-than-expected jobs report signals potential softening in the labor market.

• June job gains of 57,000 came in roughly 50% below the consensus forecast of 115,000 new positions
• Unemployment rate registered at 4.2%, slightly better than the 4.3% expectation but indicating modest labor market cooling
• The significant miss in payroll growth may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding interest rates

US stock futures showed mixed signals ahead of the July 4th weekend, with the Dow Jones tipping toward new highs while the Nasdaq declined on AI-related stock weakness. The June non-farm payrolls report, moved forward to Thursday, is expected to show 110,000 jobs added versus 172,000 in May. Investor Michael Burry's bearish position on Caterpillar triggered a broader sell-off in AI-linked stocks, wiping 437 points off the Dow.

• Caterpillar plunged 7% after Burry's disclosure, with its valuation at 37 times forward earnings compared to an industry average of 15 times, highlighting concerns about AI-related stock overvaluation
• The sell-off rippled globally with South Korea's Kospi tumbling 8%, while WTI crude fell more than 2% to $67 per barrel, the lowest since late February
• Fed chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance continues to pressure markets, with Treasury yields climbing as he promises 'a good family fight' at this month's policy meeting to restore price stability

European blue-chip companies in the STOXX 600 index are expected to post 14.5% earnings growth in Q2 2026, driven primarily by energy sector profits that are forecast to more than double. Excluding energy, profit growth falls to just 5.5%, highlighting the market's heavy dependence on oil and gas companies amid volatile crude prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

• Energy sector earnings are expected to surge 109.3% year-over-year, far outpacing basic materials (46.3%), technology (14%), and all other sectors in the STOXX 600
• Brent crude experienced significant volatility during Q2, surging above $100 per barrel on supply fears before falling to around $70, with uncertainty lingering despite a U.S.-Iran interim agreement in June
• The STOXX 600 index has recovered from war-related losses and is up approximately 9% year-to-date in 2026, already meeting J.P. Morgan's year-end target

U.S. stock futures were mixed Thursday morning ahead of June jobs data, with Dow futures up 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.5%. Markets are closed Friday, July 3, for Independence Day observance. Key releases include June employment figures expected to show 115,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.3%, plus Tesla's Q2 delivery numbers.

• June jobs report due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists forecasting 115,000 new jobs (down from 172,000 in May) and unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a relatively healthy labor market that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will closely monitor
• Tesla Q2 delivery figures expected today with analyst consensus around 403,000 vehicles, though investor focus has shifted toward the company's automation, robotics businesses, and potential SpaceX combination following its mid-June public offering
• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock rose 6% premarket, extending its 13% weekly gain after announcing plans to continue bitcoin sales and buy back common and preferred stock, with bitcoin trading above $61,000

US stock futures traded cautiously ahead of Thursday's June jobs report, with Nasdaq futures down 0.4% as investors grew selective following weakness in chip and AI stocks. Softer ADP hiring data and ISM manufacturing readings eased some Fed rate-hike concerns, but Chair Kevin Warsh provided no clear policy guidance, leaving payrolls as the key market driver.

• ADP private payrolls fell to 119,000 from 122,000 in May, while ISM manufacturing eased to 53.3 from 54, cooling some rate-hike expectations
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided clear July rate guidance at the ECB Forum, keeping markets data-dependent as the jobs report becomes critical for positioning
• Technology stocks led Wednesday's decline with Nasdaq down 0.66%, as investors questioned AI valuations after a strong first-half rally and momentum in chip stocks faded