General Market News

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold interest rates steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range at what may be Jerome Powell's final meeting as chairman, with his term expiring May 15. The decision extends elevated borrowing costs as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, while attention shifts to a leadership transition with Kevin Warsh's nomination advancing through Senate confirmation.

• The near-unanimous vote maintains rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range despite inflation running above the Fed's 2% target
• Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair expires May 15, with uncertainty over whether he will remain on the Board of Governors
• Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed chair cleared the Senate Banking Committee and awaits a final confirmation vote

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% despite President Trump's demands for cuts, citing elevated inflation at 3.3%, slow job growth, and Middle East uncertainty. The decision comes as the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair in May, amid ongoing White House investigations into Powell. The move underscores tensions between the administration and the central bank over monetary policy independence.

• All but four of the Fed's 12 voting members supported holding rates steady, with inflation at 3.3% (1.3 percentage points above the Fed's 2% target) and unemployment stable at 4.3%
• Brent crude oil hit $119 per barrel amid war with Iran, a 7% daily jump contributing to elevated energy prices and inflationary pressures
• Kevin Warsh, confirmed as incoming Fed chair, is expected to be more receptive to Trump's rate cut demands than Powell, though he would still need board support; Powell may remain on the Fed board through 2028 despite White House investigations

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% but faced unprecedented dissent with an 8-4 split vote, the highest level since 1992. Three regional presidents opposed the statement's easing bias amid persistent inflation, while Governor Miran dissented in favor of a rate cut. The decision comes as Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May with Kevin Warsh expected to replace him.

• Four FOMC members dissented: Miran favored a 0.25% cut, while Cleveland's Hammack, Minneapolis' Kashkari, and Dallas' Logan opposed the statement's language suggesting future rate cuts due to inflation concerns
• The Fed noted 'inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices,' complicating policy as Trump's tariffs and energy prices sustain price pressures above the 2% target
• Markets expect no rate changes through 2026 and into 2027, while March payrolls grew 178,000 and unemployment fell to 4.3%, easing labor market concerns

Mortgage rates rose sharply to 6.45% on April 29, 2026, reaching a nearly four-week high as geopolitical tensions with Iran drove up bond yields. The increase follows President Trump's announcement of maintaining a naval blockade against Iran until a nuclear deal is reached, reversing earlier hopes for de-escalation.

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed seven basis points to 6.45%, the highest level since April 3, as rates follow the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
• Despite rate volatility, mortgage applications to purchase homes last week were up 1% week-over-week and 21% higher compared to the same period a year ago
• More housing supply is entering the market with prices easing in some areas, as homebuyers appear to be adapting to the higher rate environment and economic uncertainty from ongoing conflict

Four of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks—Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft—are set to report earnings, with options traders pricing in over $800 billion in combined market cap movement. Current implied volatility suggests larger-than-average price swings for three of the four companies. Options flows show bullish sentiment across all four names, with call volumes and premiums outpacing puts.

• Meta options price in a 7.3% move, below its four-quarter average of 9.3%, despite beating implied moves in its last three reports
• Alphabet faces potential disappointment as options price a near-6% move, though it historically delivers smaller actual moves than options pricing suggests
• Amazon saw significant bullish activity with traders spending over $500,000 on individual call option positions, while Microsoft call buyers invested nearly $3 million in June expiry contracts

U.S. stock markets traded flat on April 29, 2026, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's rate decision and earnings reports from four major tech companies (Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft). Rising oil prices above $105 per barrel due to potential Iranian port blockades are increasing inflation concerns, complicating the Fed's policy outlook and pressuring equities.

• WTI crude oil climbed above $105/barrel and Brent past $117 due to anticipated U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, feeding inflation concerns and reducing likelihood of rate cuts
• Fed expected to hold rates steady with inflation near 3%, but Chair Jerome Powell's language in his likely final meeting will be critical for market direction and future rate expectations
• Nasdaq Composite trading at pivot level of 24,544.19 with upside target at record high of 24,889.37; breakdown below 24,199.00 would signal trend reversal and potential decline to 23,595-23,842 support zone

U.S. gasoline prices are surging to four-year highs as stockpiles plummet heading into peak summer driving season, driven by global supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and record U.S. crude exports. Prices hit $4.23 per gallon nationally, with refinery outages in the Midwest and Gulf Coast compounding the supply crunch and threatening further increases.

• Gasoline inventories dropped 6.08 million barrels last week and are now nearly 3% below the five-year average, moving in the 'wrong direction' as summer demand approaches
• Oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel, with Brent crude at $118.34 and U.S. crude at $106.35, while gasoline futures jumped 5% to their highest since 2022
• Major refinery outages at BP's 440,000 bpd Whiting facility and Shell's 250,000 bpd Norco plant are expected to push Midwest prices above $5 per gallon

Four 'Magnificent 7' tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet) are reporting Q1 2026 earnings today, alongside the final FOMC meeting under Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The market focus centers on AI infrastructure spending and capital outlays, as these earnings reports coincide with strong economic data showing durable goods orders up 0.8% and housing starts reaching 1.502 million units in March.

• Microsoft expects 17.6% earnings growth and 16.2% revenue growth; Meta projects 4.35% earnings growth and 31.15% revenue growth; Amazon anticipates modest 0.63% earnings growth; Alphabet faces projected -6% earnings decline despite 20.6% revenue growth due to massive AI capex spending
• AI equipment segment surged 3.7% in March, driving non-Defense ex-aircraft durable goods orders up 3.3% (highest in almost six years), demonstrating tangible effects of Big Tech AI infrastructure investments on broader economy
• The FOMC is 100% certain to hold rates steady at 3.50-3.75% (unchanged since December 2025), marking Jerome Powell's final meeting before Kevin Warsh assumes the Fed Chair role in June

Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, has criticized Jerome Powell and signaled intent to significantly shrink the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet, ending the quantitative easing era. This represents a fundamental shift away from the post-2008 playbook of Fed liquidity support during crises, potentially ending the easy money policies that fueled the longest bull market in history and forcing investors to rethink their reliance on central bank intervention.

• The Fed's balance sheet ballooned from $900 billion pre-2008 to a $8.9 trillion pandemic peak, currently sitting at $6.6 trillion; Warsh wants to shrink it further through quantitative tightening, which could push long-term yields higher
• Higher bond yields and reduced Fed liquidity could pressure high-growth tech stocks trading at 24x forward earnings while benefiting cash-generating value stocks and banks as investors gain real alternatives to equities
• A Warsh-led Fed would likely show greater tolerance for market volatility and less willingness to intervene during downturns, prioritizing inflation credibility over asset price support

Kevin Warsh's nomination to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair advanced through the Senate Banking Committee on a party-line vote, clearing the way for potential confirmation by mid-May. The process unfolds amid White House pressure on the Fed and controversy over a DOJ investigation into Powell. Democrats oppose Warsh, doubting his commitment to independence from presidential influence.

• The Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 along party lines to advance Warsh's nomination after the DOJ dropped its investigation into Powell on April 25
• The full Senate could vote the week of May 11, potentially allowing Warsh to be sworn in by May 15 when Powell's leadership term ends, though uncertainty remains about whether Powell will stay on the Fed Board through January 2028
• The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation, while Trump has repeatedly stated he wants Warsh to deliver rate cuts

UBS warns that incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh plans to abandon forward guidance and the gradualist approach used by predecessors like Ben Bernanke, marking a fundamental shift in how the Fed communicates policy. Warsh favors making rate decisions 'in the room' without telegraphing moves in advance, which UBS expects to increase market volatility. The change has already impacted markets, with gold prices falling 14% since Warsh's nomination in late January.

• Warsh explicitly rejects forward guidance, arguing it limited the Fed's flexibility during the 2021-2022 inflation surge, preferring a 'cold turkey strategy' of single-step rate moves without advance signaling
• UBS expects flattening pressure on the 5s30s Treasury yield curve and was stopped out of a rates trade positioned for aggressive 2027 easing after Warsh declined to offer dovish guidance
• Gold has fallen approximately 14% since Warsh's nomination, consistent with markets pricing in a tighter and less predictable monetary environment, while UBS forecasts slow balance sheet reduction starting at $25 billion monthly purchases

German-French tank maker KNDS has launched an internal investigation into alleged bribery related to a 2013 arms deal with Qatar worth 1.89 billion euros. The probe examines multi-million-euro commission payments allegedly made to a consultancy controlled by a Qatari general, though KNDS states it has found no evidence of employee wrongdoing to date.

• The 2013 deal involved 24 PzH 2000 artillery systems, 62 Leopard 2 tanks, and additional defense equipment worth 1.89 billion euros ($2.21 billion)
• Auditor PwC has withheld approval of KNDS's 2025 annual accounts due to the investigation, creating uncertainty around the company's planned stock market listing, though KNDS expects finalization in May
• Law firm Freshfields is conducting the review of the Qatar transactions originally signed by KNDS predecessor Krauss-Maffei Wegmann

PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. power grid operator serving 13 states and one in five Americans, will begin processing new power plant applications this week after clearing a years-long backlog. The grid operator received over 800 new generation project applications totaling 220 gigawatts of capacity, addressing electricity shortfalls driven by surging data center demand.

• PJM had frozen new applications in 2022 to process backlogs and implement reforms, processing 170 gigawatts by end of 2025 with 31% offered or signed connection agreements
• The 800+ new applications include 349 battery storage projects, 157 natural gas plants, 142 solar farms, 65 wind farms, and 45 nuclear energy projects
• Clean energy advocates welcome the queue reopening but emphasize the need for faster project connections to meet growing electricity demand

U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels in the week ended April 24, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of a 231,000-barrel draw, according to the Energy Information Administration. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated, dropping 6.1 million and 4.5 million barrels respectively. The larger-than-expected inventory drawdowns pushed oil futures up approximately 5%, with Brent crude rising to $116.85 and WTI to $104.67 per barrel.

• Crude inventories decreased to 459.5 million barrels, a draw nearly 27 times larger than the expected 231,000-barrel decline
• Gasoline stocks fell 6.1 million barrels (versus 2.1 million expected) while distillate inventories dropped 4.5 million barrels (versus 2.2 million expected)
• Refinery utilization increased by 0.5 percentage points and crude runs rose by 84,000 barrels per day, while net crude imports dropped by 1.97 million barrels per day

Kevin Warsh's nomination to become Federal Reserve Chair advanced through the Senate Banking Committee with a 13-11 vote, clearing a major hurdle after Sen. Thom Tillis lifted his opposition. The North Carolina senator had blocked the nomination over concerns about a DOJ investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which has since been closed. Warsh could be confirmed in time to preside over the Fed's June policy meeting.

• Warsh, a former Fed governor (2006-2011), would replace Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ends May 15, 2026, though Powell could remain on the Board of Governors until January 2028
• Sen. Tillis removed his hold after the DOJ closed its politically controversial investigation into Powell's testimony regarding the Fed's renovation project, with oversight transferred to the Fed's inspector general
• The full Senate confirmation vote could occur soon, potentially allowing Warsh to take over before the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting

The Senate Banking Committee voted along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, moving President Trump's pick toward final confirmation in the Republican-controlled Senate. The vote came hours before the Fed's latest interest rate decision, potentially the last under current chair Jerome Powell, amid ongoing tensions between Trump and the central bank over monetary policy.

• The committee vote was 13-11 along party lines, with all Republicans supporting and all Democrats opposing Warsh's nomination
• A DOJ criminal investigation into Powell, widely seen as retaliation for the Fed's interest rate decisions, was dropped days before the vote after Sen. Thom Tillis threatened to block Warsh unless the probe ended
• The Fed is expected to maintain current rates due to sticky inflation and geopolitical price shocks, continuing the cautious approach that has drawn Trump's criticism

U.S. stock indices rallied on April 29, 2026, following rumors that President Trump may be willing to negotiate an end to an ongoing war even with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. The Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 all attempted recoveries, though analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of the rally given recent bearish market conditions.

• The Nasdaq 100 rallied toward the 23,800 level based on speculation about war negotiations, though the author expresses skepticism about the rumor's credibility
• The Dow Jones 30 is testing a crucial support level at 45,750, with potential to reach 46,000 if the level holds
• The S&P 500 needs to hold above 6,300 to avoid further bearish pressure, with resistance at 6,500, and analysts recommend waiting several days before committing significant capital

Franco-German tank maker KNDS announced it investigated a 2013 defense deal with Qatar's armed forces and found no evidence of criminal misconduct by current or former employees. The investigation, conducted by external legal counsel, examined contracts originally signed by predecessor Krauss-Maffei Wegmann for artillery systems, tanks, and related equipment.

• The contracts covered 24 PzH 2000 artillery systems, 62 Leopard 2 tanks, plus additional defense equipment, services, training, and simulation equipment
• The investigation is 'well advanced' but not yet complete, with external legal and advisory firms conducting the review
• No evidence found to date suggests any KNDS employees, past or present, engaged in criminal misconduct related to the Qatar transaction

Wall Street opened lower on Wednesday as the Dow fell 92 points and the S&P 500 dropped 0.18%, with investors awaiting a Federal Reserve policy decision and earnings reports from four major tech companies including Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Rising oil prices above $104 per barrel due to Iran tensions and concerns about AI spending sustainability added to market caution.

• The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in what may be Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting before Kevin Warsh's succession, with markets watching for inflation commentary amid elevated oil prices
• Big Tech earnings will focus on AI investment justification after OpenAI reportedly missed internal growth targets, testing the semiconductor sector's 41.7% year-to-date rally
• Individual stocks showed volatility: Robinhood fell 12% on missed profit expectations while NXP Semiconductors surged 23% on strong guidance, and oil prices jumped over 4% on US-Iran blockade reports

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is leading his final rate-setting meeting before Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee, takes over the Fed helm. The key question is whether Powell will serve out his term as Fed governor through February 2028, which would determine if Trump can appoint another dovish FOMC member. Markets currently see only 13% odds of rate cuts this year amid elevated oil prices around $103 per barrel.

• At the March 18 meeting, Stephen Miran was the only FOMC member to dissent and favor a quarter-point rate cut; Miran would step down when Warsh joins
• Warsh has criticized Fed's data-dependent approach and $7 trillion balance sheet, advocating for focus on AI-driven productivity gains that could allow faster growth without inflation
• Warsh faces trade-off between lower rates and smaller balance sheet: reducing Fed asset holdings would increase market supply, potentially raising long-term Treasury yields and federal borrowing costs