The World Cup sends prediction market volumes soaring to record highs

• Kalshi maintained over $1 billion in daily trading volume consistently since the World Cup began on June 11, with total June volume exceeding $31 billion
• Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group that launched in June via Robinhood integration, quickly captured 7% of U.S. prediction market volume with $2 billion traded
• Team USA matchups generated significant interest despite low odds, with $64 million traded on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket on whether the U.S. would win the tournament (odds at 4.3% and 3% respectively)

Summary: World Cup Drives Prediction Market Volumes to Record Highs

Key Figures and Growth

The 2026 FIFA World Cup triggered unprecedented trading activity across prediction market platforms in June. Kalshi recorded over $31 billion in notional volume, representing a 70%+ increase from May's volume. The platform maintained consistent daily volumes exceeding $1 billion since the tournament began on June 11.

Polymarket's international platform reached a record $10.8 billion in monthly volume, reversing declines from April and May. Its U.S. platform generated over $3.5 billion, up from $1.77 billion in May.

Companies and Platforms

Kalshi emerged as the volume leader with $31 billion traded. Polymarket set new records across both international and U.S. platforms. Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood that launched in June, captured $2 billion in volume and now holds 7% of U.S. prediction market share.

Market Implications

The World Cup served as a critical stress test for prediction market platforms. With regulators and institutions monitoring performance, platforms demonstrated capacity to handle sustained high-volume trading. Open interest metrics remain elevated: Kalshi exceeds $1 billion while Polymarket holds just under $400 million.

Trading on Team USA's tournament prospects reached $64 million on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket, despite odds of only 3-4.3% for a U.S. victory. The team faces Belgium in the round of 16 on Monday.

Strategic Context

According to Solidus Labs CEO Asaf Meir, this event tests whether prediction markets can "maintain a level playing field for all investors" during high-pressure periods, crucial for attracting institutional participation.