General Market News

February 2026 producer prices rose 0.7% monthly and 3.4% year-over-year, exceeding expectations, with inflation now driven more by distribution costs and margin decisions than raw material inputs. Services costs increased 0.5% while goods prices rose 1.1%, led by a 48.9% spike in vegetable prices. Firms are responding by deploying AI for demand forecasting and managing liquidity through flexible payment strategies rather than relying solely on price increases.

• Tariff exposure is creating a business performance divide: 60% of CFOs at globally-sourced firms report regulatory unpredictability versus 15% at domestic-focused companies, with 58% experiencing declining margins despite raising prices
• Trade indexes show wholesalers and retailers are widening spreads, indicating inflation is accumulating through supply chain layers as businesses recalibrate pricing during distribution rather than simply passing through input costs
• 42% of companies are using AI to forecast demand and model tariff exposure, while increasing use of commercial cards and early supplier payments to maintain liquidity and operational visibility

Wall Street fell sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow dropping over 700 points as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled only one rate cut for the year. Hotter-than-expected PPI data showing 0.6% monthly growth and oil prices surging above $110 per barrel on Middle East tensions fueled concerns about persistent inflation. The Dow fell below its 200-day moving average and is tracking its worst month since 2022.

• The Fed maintained rates and projected just one cut in 2026 without a clear timeline, citing uncertainty from Middle East geopolitical developments and acknowledging slower-than-hoped inflation progress.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.6% monthly and 3.4% annually, both exceeding forecasts, while Brent crude surged 7% above $110 following reported attacks on Iranian energy facilities.
• Major indexes all declined over 1.3%, with the Dow down 1.6% (768 points), S&P 500 falling 1.36%, and Nasdaq dropping 1.46%, though tech stocks showed mixed results with AMD gaining on Samsung partnership news while Nvidia declined.

Firms' year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.1% in March 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from February, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest survey. While this represents an increase from the recent 1.9% reading, it remains below the 2.5% recorded in March 2025 and slightly above the pre-pandemic average of 2.0%.

• Long-run unit cost expectations (5-10 years ahead) increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%, while year-over-year unit cost growth held steady at 2.0%
• Business inflation expectations have declined significantly from the April 2022 peak of 3.8%, with the Cleveland Fed reporting CEO expectations at 3.1% for the next 12 months (down from 3.3% in October 2025)
• Consumer inflation expectations showed more stability, with the median one-year outlook declining to 3.0% in February while three-year and five-year horizons remained steady at 3.0%

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026, citing persistent inflation and geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions. The decision was not unanimous, with one dissenter favoring an immediate rate cut, while the Fed continues to project one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027.

• Brent crude has surged nearly 50% since late February, pushing US gasoline prices to their highest levels since 2023 and complicating the Fed's inflation management efforts
• The Fed revised its longer-run neutral rate slightly higher to 3.125% from 3.000%, with policy rates projected at 3.375% in 2026 and 3.125% in 2027-2028
• Governor Stephen Miran dissented from the decision, advocating for an immediate rate cut and highlighting division within the committee over appropriate policy direction

Oil price volatility has surged dramatically as U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran disrupts Persian Gulf oil supplies, which account for roughly 20% of global oil. The Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) has soared to 108, triple its level at year-start, while oil futures have jumped over 50% year-to-date. Asian markets are particularly vulnerable due to heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports, while U.S. markets have seen relatively smaller declines as a net energy exporter.

• The OVX index reached 108, exceeding volatility levels seen during the June 2025 U.S. bombing of Iran and Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion, though still below pandemic-era extremes
• Oil futures have risen more than 50% year-to-date and gas prices have increased around 25%, with Asian financial markets hit hardest due to their dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports
• U.S. equity markets have experienced relatively modest declines given America's status as a net energy exporter, with the VIX 'fear index' rising far less than the oil volatility index

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced he will remain in his leadership role beyond his May term expiration if his nominated successor Kevin Warsh is not confirmed by then. Additionally, Powell stated he will retain his Board of Governors seat, which runs until early 2028, until a Department of Justice investigation into him concludes with full transparency.

• Powell's term as Fed Chair expires in May 2026, but he commits to continue until Warsh's confirmation
• Powell is under a Department of Justice investigation and will not vacate his Board of Governors position (lasting until early 2028) until the probe is 'well and truly over with transparency and finality'
• Kevin Warsh has been nominated as Powell's successor but awaits Senate confirmation

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• No information available about US central bank statements on Iran war impact or oil price predictions

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it will hold interest rates steady at the current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts in late 2024 and comes amid a softening labor market, inflation running above the Fed's 2% target, and growing uncertainty from conflict in Iran.

• The Fed maintained rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting after cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2024
• Key factors influencing the pause include a slowdown in the labor market and inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target
• Geopolitical uncertainty from the war in Iran is contributing to the Fed's cautious stance on further rate adjustments

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in March, maintaining the pause it began in January after three consecutive rate cuts in late 2024. The decision comes amid a softening labor market, inflation running above the Fed's 2% target, and geopolitical uncertainty from conflict in Iran.

• The Fed previously cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2024 before pausing in January
• Current benchmark federal funds rate remains at 3.5% to 3.75%
• Key factors influencing the pause include labor market weakness, persistent inflation above the 2% target, and Middle East geopolitical tensions

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation, mixed labor market signals, and uncertainty from the ongoing Iran war. The FOMC projects one rate cut this year and another in 2027, while acknowledging that Middle East developments create uncertain economic implications. The decision comes as President Trump continues pressuring Fed Chair Powell to cut rates, with Powell's term set to end in May.

• Seven of 19 FOMC participants expect no rate cuts in 2026, up from six in December; the median outlook projects one cut this year and one in 2027, with rates settling around 3.1% long-term
• Fed officials raised GDP growth projections to 2.4% for 2026 and inflation expectations to 2.7% (both headline and core PCE), citing impacts from the Iran war on oil markets and the Strait of Hormuz
• Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a quarter-point cut due to jobs concerns; political tensions persist as Trump's Justice Department subpoenaed Powell over Fed headquarters renovations, which a judge dismissed as pressure tactics

The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5-3.75% amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war with Iran and ongoing economic uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell resisted pressure from President Trump to cut rates, weighing an energy shock and inflation concerns against a weakening jobs market that lost 92,000 positions last month. This marks Powell's penultimate meeting before his term ends in May 2026.

• All but one voting member supported holding rates steady despite Trump's public demands for cuts and a DOJ investigation into Powell that a judge blocked as 'pretext' for political pressure
• The US added only 181,000 jobs in all of 2025 (lowest since COVID-19) while inflation fluctuated between 2.3% and 3%, with economists noting the labor market has 'essentially frozen' since tariffs were announced
• The energy shock from the Iran war creates a 'central banker's nightmare' as the Fed cannot address rising oil prices through monetary policy, while the Supreme Court is set to rule on Trump's firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook before June

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in an 11-1 vote as officials weigh conflicting economic signals, including Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz causing severe supply disruptions, rising inflation concerns, and sluggish economic growth. The decision comes amid uncertainty about the path forward for rate cuts, with policymakers divided on whether to prioritize supporting the labor market or containing inflation.

• Personal consumption expenditures index rose in February before US-Israel strikes on Iran began Feb. 28, while Q4 GDP growth was a weak 0.7%, raising stagflation concerns
• February jobs report showed weakness with unemployment rising to 4.4%, adding to mixed economic signals complicating Fed's rate decision
• Jerome Powell's penultimate meeting as chairman occurs amid Trump pressure for faster rate cuts, while nominee Kevin Warsh faces Senate confirmation battle over ongoing investigation into Fed headquarters renovation

US wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February and 3.4% year-over-year, exceeding economist forecasts and marking the highest annual increase in a year. The surge, driven by sharp food price increases, occurred before the US-Israel attack on Iran pushed energy prices nearly 50% higher. The data complicates the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions as inflationary pressures build amid geopolitical tensions.

• Core wholesale prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.5% monthly and 3.9% annually, more than double economist expectations, signaling persistent pipeline inflation pressures from tariffs and other costs
• Food prices jumped 2.4% in one month, with vegetables surging 49% and fruits up 10%, while gasoline prices spiked to $3.84 per gallon from under $3 before the Iran conflict
• The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady as it navigates conflicting signals from rising inflation and a slumping job market, with consumer inflation already above the 2% target before energy price spikes

US large-cap equities delivered strong Q4 2025 earnings, with S&P 500 earnings beating expectations by 6.8% and year-over-year growth reaching 13.6%, showing no significant impact from tariff concerns or AI slowdown fears. In contrast, more value-oriented markets including US small-caps, European, and Japanese equities showed weaker performance, taking a step back from prior quarter improvements. The analysis emphasizes that corporate earnings remain a more reliable intermediate-term stock price driver than geopolitical uncertainties.

• S&P 500 earnings exceeded analyst expectations by 6.8% with revenues 1.8% higher than expected; technology sector earnings surpassed expectations by 7.6% with year-over-year growth of 32.5%
• AI-driven infrastructure build supported strong cyclical sector performance, with Industrials growing 34.8% and Materials growing 24.1% year-over-year
• US small-cap earnings growth turned negative with only five sectors showing positive growth, while European revenue growth fell from flat to negative, and Japanese earnings surprises turned negative despite overall relative health

The February Producer Price Index (PPI) came in significantly hotter than expected at +0.7% month-over-month, more than doubling the +0.3% consensus estimate. Core PPI reached +3.9% year-over-year, the highest in 13 months, signaling persistent inflationary pressures that complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.

• Headline PPI of +0.7% monthly was the fourth consecutive increase and highest since July 2025, while year-over-year PPI hit +3.4%, up 0.5% from the prior month
• Core PPI (excluding food and energy) reached +3.9% annually after three months at exactly +3.0%, showing accelerating inflation for three straight months
• The hot inflation data, combined with recent PCE figures above +3% and geopolitical oil price pressures from Iran, creates challenges for Fed rate cuts ahead of Chair Powell's press conference

U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels to 449.3 million barrels in the week ended March 13, far exceeding analyst expectations of a 383,000-barrel increase, according to the Energy Information Administration. Gasoline and distillate stocks declined more than anticipated, with gasoline falling 5.4 million barrels and distillates dropping 2.5 million barrels.

• Crude inventories increased 6.2 million barrels versus expectations for only a 383,000-barrel rise, indicating weaker demand or higher supply than anticipated
• Gasoline stocks fell 5.4 million barrels (expected: 1.6 million drop) while distillate inventories decreased 2.5 million barrels (expected: 1.5 million drop), suggesting stronger refined product demand
• Refinery utilization rates rose to 91.4%, up 0.6 percentage points, while net U.S. crude imports fell by 692,000 barrels per day

A hotter-than-expected February wholesale inflation report has pushed market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts back to December 2025 at the earliest, with only a 60% probability. Persistent inflation driven by tariffs, the Iraq war, and elevated services costs is keeping the Fed on hold, eliminating previous expectations for mid-year cuts.

• Probability of a June rate cut dropped to just 18.4%, July to 31.5%, and September to 43.6%, with December now at 60.5% - indicating low market conviction
• Futures markets are pricing in a fed funds rate of 3.43% by end of 2026, down from the current 3.64%, suggesting minimal easing over the next two years
• The Producer Price Index posted its biggest gain in a year, leading analysts to expect a 'hawkish' tone from the FOMC and a 'higher for longer' rate messaging

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US stocks fell on Wednesday after February's Producer Price Index rose 0.7% (versus 0.3% expected), far exceeding forecasts and dimming rate cut expectations. The Dow Jones dropped 169 points (0.36%) as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions compounded inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

• Annual PPI climbed 3.4%, well above the 2.9% forecast, pushing expected Fed rate cuts from December 2026 to at least April 2027
• Oil prices surged with Brent crude rising over 4% to $108.3 per barrel due to attacks on Iranian energy facilities and Strait of Hormuz disruptions
• Markets await Fed Chair Powell's remarks for guidance on how policymakers will respond to inflation risks from elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty

US stock futures dipped slightly on March 18, 2026, after initially higher gains were pared as oil prices surged above $96 per barrel for WTI crude. Markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and updated dot plot forecasts, with rates expected to remain unchanged but potential hawkish signals due to ongoing geopolitical energy concerns.

• Oil prices jumped sharply with WTI rising above $96 and Brent above $106 per barrel after reports that Iran took parts of its South Pars gas field offline following strikes, raising LNG supply concerns
• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, but investors will focus on the 'dot plot' for signs of increased hawkishness due to ongoing conflict and energy market tightness
• This will be one of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's final press conferences before his retirement in May 2026, adding significance to his commentary on the economic outlook