Home sales barely budge in April as spring buying season off to disappointing start
Key Points
- Home sales fell short of the 4.12 million pace economists expected and remained flat compared to April 2023, continuing a slump that began in 2022 when mortgage rates climbed from pandemic lows
- The median US home price rose 0.9% year-over-year to $417,700, an all-time high for April, marking 34 consecutive months of annual price increases
- Housing inventory increased to 1.47 million unsold homes (up 5.8% from March), the most for April since 2019, but still 30% below the roughly 2 million homes needed for a balanced market
AI Summary
Summary: US Home Sales Stagnate in Disappointing Spring Buying Season
Key Figures:
US existing home sales rose just 0.2% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, falling short of economist expectations of 4.12 million, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales remained flat year-over-year compared to April 2023.
Market Performance:
Home sales have hovered near the 4-million annual pace since 2023, significantly below the historic norm of 5.2 million. The median US home price reached $417,700 in April, up 0.9% year-over-year and an all-time high for the month based on data since 1999. Prices have increased for 34 consecutive months.
Market Conditions:
The housing market has been sluggish since 2022 when mortgage rates began rising from pandemic lows. In April, 30-year mortgage rates ranged from 5.98% to 6.38%, with recent fluctuations creating inflation concerns among buyers.
Inventory levels showed modest improvement with 1.47 million unsold homes at month-end—up 5.8% from March and 1.4% year-over-year. This represents the highest April inventory since 2019 (1.83 million) but remains well below the pre-pandemic norm of approximately 2 million homes. The current 4.4-month supply still falls short of the balanced market range of 5-6 months.
Outlook:
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated no sales increase is predicted compared to last year's spring season, noting that inventory needs to grow by 30% to normalize market conditions. The combination of elevated prices, fluctuating mortgage rates, and limited inventory continues to constrain buyer activity during what is traditionally the market's busiest period.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 80% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bearish | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 81% |