General Market News

Oil prices rose over 1% on Friday as escalating U.S.-Iran military confrontations threatened critical shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Brent crude climbed to $85.28 per barrel while WTI reached $79.98, with both benchmarks up nearly 12% for the week amid concerns over oil supply security.

• The U.S. launched airstrikes against Iran for six consecutive nights, targeting sites near Iran's southern coast, while Tehran responded with missiles and drones at U.S. bases in neighboring states
• Iran has instructed Houthi allies to prepare to close the Red Sea oil route if U.S. forces strike Iranian power infrastructure, adding to supply disruption fears
• IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that oil security remains 'a critical issue' and expressed concern if the situation does not improve within weeks

The IEA chief warned that global energy security is at serious risk if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz don't resume within weeks. The strait, which normally carries one-fifth of world energy shipments, has been mostly blocked since February 28 due to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Asian nations, particularly developing countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, have been hit hardest by the crisis.

• The IEA coordinated a release of up to 400 million barrels of oil reserves in March (20% of total stockpiles), which temporarily reduced prices by $20 per barrel, but 80% of reserves remain available if needed
• Temporary factors moderating price increases include China's 1+ billion barrel stockpile, increased EV adoption, and U.S. production increases of 1-2 million barrels per day, but these 'can't last forever'
• Asia is disproportionately affected as it received 80-90% of energy from the Strait of Hormuz, with developing countries facing health risks as people turn to hazardous cooking fuels like dung and wood due to unaffordable petroleum products

Taco Bell voluntarily removed lettuce from a supplier in select U.S. states after the ingredient was linked to an ongoing cyclosporiasis outbreak that has sickened thousands. The chain is removing the affected ingredient nationwide from its supply chain and replacing it within 24 hours in impacted states.

• Shredded iceberg lettuce from California-based Taylor Farms was identified by investigators as a potential source of the parasitic intestinal infection outbreak
• Taco Bell took immediate action in consultation with public health officials but did not disclose which specific states were affected
• The contaminated lettuce is being indefinitely removed from the nationwide supply chain as a precautionary measure

June's CPI decline to 3.5% was driven primarily by a 20.6% drop in crude oil following a mid-June ceasefire, while core PCE inflation hit its highest level since October 2023. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest inflation threat, capable of quickly reversing recent disinflation gains. Bond markets remain skeptical of peak inflation, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.58% despite the headline CPI improvement.

• Energy prices fell 6% month-over-month in June, with WTI crude dropping to $69.73 and retail gasoline declining from $4.50 to $3.85 per gallon by mid-July, accounting for most of the headline CPI improvement
• The Strait of Hormuz previously handled 10.8 million barrels per day (roughly 20% of global oil supply) before February conflict, with Brent crude reaching $138 per barrel during the April disruption
• The Federal Reserve has held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for over seven months, with consumer sentiment at near-recessionary levels (44.8 in May 2026) suggesting households remain unconvinced the inflation fight is over

Wise reported strong Q1 fiscal 2027 results with active customers up 21% to nearly 12 million, cross-border volume up 26% to $69 billion, and net revenue rising 25% year-over-year to £714 million. The company reiterated full-year guidance and plans to continue reducing prices for customers despite the impact on near-term margins.

• Revenue diversification increasing with 51% of net revenue now from non-cross-border activities; card and other revenue jumped 38% while interest income rose 15%
• Company expects constant-currency net revenue growth in the middle of 15-20% range and margins near the high end of 20-25% for the full year, with growth weighted to the first half
• Wise plans ongoing pricing reductions totaling approximately five basis points across the year (two basis points in Q2, one basis point each in Q3 and Q4) as part of its long-term strategy

Larry Kudlow argues the U.S. economy is entering a new 'Goldilocks' phase characterized by strong economic growth combined with declining inflation, contrary to traditional economic trade-offs. Recent data shows consumer and producer prices fell in June while retail sales surged, with core sales rising 8 percent annually over three months. Kudlow attributes this to supply-side factors including AI, advanced manufacturing, and productivity gains, alongside pro-growth fiscal and monetary policies.

• Online retail sales jumped 1.9% in June with non-store retailers showing 21% annual growth over the last 3 months; car sales rose more than 20% annually in Q2
• Consumer and producer price levels actually declined month-over-month in June while unemployment claims remain at rock-bottom levels
• Kudlow declares 'the Phillips Curve is dead,' arguing there is no trade-off between growth and inflation due to technology-driven productivity gains in AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing

The four largest tech hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) plan to spend at least $700 billion on AI capex in 2026, 80% higher than 2025's record, driving investment grade corporate debt issuance to $976 billion through May. Despite heavy issuance, IG spreads remain near historic lows at 80 basis points, leaving minimal cushion for market disruptions.

• Hyperscalers have issued $110 billion in US debt year-to-date, representing nearly 16% of total IG issuance versus just 3% a year ago
• AI capex from the big four alone will account for 2.2% of GDP in 2026, with debt markets absorbing much of the financing need
• Hyperscaler spreads already trade 25+ bps wider than the broader IG index (a 10-year high), suggesting markets are beginning to differentiate risk despite tight overall spreads offering little downside protection

Crypto.com secured a $400 million investment from Citadel Securities, valuing the cryptocurrency exchange at $20 billion in its first institutional funding round. The partnership aims to accelerate Crypto.com's expansion into tokenized securities, derivatives, and bridge traditional and digital asset markets. This reflects growing institutional interest in crypto despite ongoing regulatory hurdles and market volatility.

• The $20 billion valuation represents nearly half of industry leader Coinbase's $42 billion market cap, positioning Crypto.com as a major competitor in the exchange space.
• Traditional financial institutions are increasingly investing in crypto platforms following clearer regulatory guidance and growing adoption of tokenized assets, reversing their earlier reluctance.
• Bitcoin has fallen over 26% this year to below $65,000 from a high of $126,000, highlighting continued price volatility challenges facing the $2.3 trillion crypto sector.

Fossil Group plans to close up to 15 stores in 2026 as part of an ongoing turnaround effort, reducing its global footprint to approximately 185 locations. The watch and accessories retailer is focusing on cost reduction and profitability after years of declining sales, though it has slowed the pace of closures due to improved performance at full-price stores.

• Fossil reported Q1 net sales of $224.8 million, down from $233.3 million year-over-year, but narrowed its net loss to $810,000 from $17.6 million in the prior-year quarter
• The company closed 49 underperforming stores in fiscal 2025 and achieved approximately $100 million in selling, general and administrative cost savings compared to fiscal 2024
• Fossil's store count dropped from 220 locations a year ago to 193 as of April 4, 2026, with operations spanning 132 countries through company-owned subsidiaries and distributors

U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in June, meeting expectations and suggesting consumer resilience, but LegalShield's Consumer Stress Legal Index reveals mounting financial distress beneath the surface. The data point to a widening K-shaped economy where top earners mask severe stress among lower-income households, with foreclosures and bankruptcies reaching multi-year highs.

• LegalShield's Foreclosure Index hit its highest level since March 2020, up 12.2% year-over-year, while the Bankruptcy Index surged 28.7%, with the composite Consumer Stress Legal Index rising 9.4% from Q2 2025
• Analysts warn retail sales may be misleading as they don't capture how purchases are financed, with concerns that 'buy now, pay later' services and consumer credit are masking deteriorating household finances rather than reflecting genuine economic health
• Financial stress is spreading across all income levels and regions, with pandemic-era protections now fully expired and no improvement expected in the near term, particularly affecting the lower 75% of Americans

Middle East oil producers are developing seven pipeline projects to bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid daily Iranian attacks on tankers, with capacity potentially reaching over 14 million barrels per day by 2028. However, analysts warn these pipelines remain just as vulnerable to Iran's low-cost asymmetric attacks as seaborne exports. The threat extends beyond Hormuz, as Iran and Houthi allies now threaten to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would block oil diverted through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminal.

• Pipeline capacity could expand to cover more than 60% of Gulf states' pre-war export volume of 23 million bpd by end of 2028, according to Goldman Sachs
• Iraq's oil production dropped over 50% to 1.9 million bpd in June from 4.2 million bpd in February due to Hormuz disruptions; U.S. is supporting rebuild of Kirkuk-Syria-Mediterranean pipeline
• Iran previously struck a Saudi pipeline pumping station in April, reducing capacity by 700,000 bpd, demonstrating vulnerability of pipeline infrastructure to attacks on terminals, storage units and pumping stations

Citadel Securities invested $400 million in cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com at a $20 billion valuation, marking the exchange's first institutional fundraising round. The deal represents the continued convergence of traditional finance and digital assets, driven by greater regulatory clarity and institutional demand despite Bitcoin falling 27% this year.

• Ken Griffin's Citadel Securities, a leading global market maker, made its first major crypto investment as financial institutions race to build digital asset infrastructure
• Crypto.com plans to use the capital to expand across asset classes including tokenized securities and derivatives, reflecting crypto firms' push to become full-service financial platforms
• The investment comes despite market volatility, with Bitcoin down 27% year-to-date amid economic uncertainty, though the overall crypto sector remains valued at $2.3 trillion

Cooper Companies (COO) is experiencing growth driven by premium contact lenses, particularly MyDay and MiSight myopia-management products, along with its women's health portfolio. The company delivered an 18th consecutive year of market share gains and 20% adjusted EPS growth following operational restructuring. However, weakness in Japan, fertility market uncertainty, and rising competition pose near-term challenges despite strong long-term fundamentals.

• Premium lens products (MyDay multifocal, Energys, and toric lenses) grew over 15%, with operational restructuring delivering 20% increase in adjusted EPS and AI-driven automation improving margins
• Fiscal 2026 consensus estimates project 5.3% revenue growth to $4.31 billion and 12.4% EPS improvement to $4.63, with long-term earnings growth expected at 8.3% over five years
• Japan market weakness and competitive pressure on legacy hydrogel lenses offset gains, while CooperSurgical's fertility business faces uncertainty from China weakness and Middle East geopolitical tensions

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan called for 'modestly' higher interest rates to combat inflation that remains above the Fed's 2% target. Despite recent positive inflation data showing monthly declines in consumer and wholesale prices, Logan argued that one month of improvement is insufficient and that action is needed to restore price stability. As a voting member of the FOMC, her call is the most specific among Fed officials for a rate hike.

• Consumer prices rose 3.5% year-over-year in June despite a monthly decline of 0.4%, while wholesale costs increased 5.5% annually, with inflation above the Fed's 2% target since early 2021
• Markets expect a quarter-point rate hike later in 2026, likely in September or October, though odds of a July increase are just 12.3%
• Logan warned that delaying action could require 'sharper rate increases' later with greater cost to the labor market, advocating 'modest restriction now than severe restriction later'

Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest level in almost a year, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching 6.55%, up from 6.49% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. This marks the highest rate since August 2025, though housing affordability and inventory conditions are showing modest improvement for prospective buyers.

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.55%, the highest since August 2025, while 15-year rates rose to 5.93%
• Purchase application demand has weakened recently despite more favorable affordability and rising housing inventory
• Mortgage rates closely track the 10-year Treasury yield, which hovered around 4.57% as of Friday

U.S. retail sales grew 0.2% in June 2026 to $768.6 billion, driven by essential purchases while discretionary spending weakened. Consumers are making more selective purchasing decisions based on household financial capacity rather than overall sentiment. The shift reflects growing pressure on financially stretched households, who are prioritizing necessities and delaying optional purchases.

• Core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rose 0.4%, with motor vehicles up 1.9% and nonstore retailers up 1.9%, while clothing fell 0.3% and groceries declined 0.4%
• Federal Reserve contacts reported greater price sensitivity, increased trading down to lower-priced alternatives, and weaker demand for discretionary goods across multiple districts
• PYMNTS research shows households struggling to pay bills saw their composite score fall to 40.6, widening the gap between strongest and weakest financial groups to roughly 21 points

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon urged calm regarding AI's impact on jobs, stating that people should 'stop being breathless' about concerns. Speaking at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit, Dimon emphasized that technology historically creates new jobs and that proper workforce planning and retraining can address potential disruptions.

• Dimon noted AI has created jobs at JPMorgan while only slightly reducing jobs in some areas, with the company committed to redeploying, reskilling, and retraining employees
• The CEO warned that the main risk is if AI adoption happens 'too fast' and middle-class jobs are lost before workers can be retrained for new positions
• Dimon advocated for using AI to improve speed and quality rather than purely cutting costs, suggesting this approach prevents headcount reductions

The SEC and CFTC are working to clarify their respective roles in regulating the rapidly growing prediction markets sector, an area historically overseen solely by the CFTC since 1992. The agencies issued a joint request last month to harmonize definitions around event contracts, which are classified as swaps, with the SEC potentially gaining jurisdiction over contracts tied to individual securities or companies. Legal experts say this regulatory cooperation comes at an opportune time with both Republican-dominated agencies currently operating with board vacancies.

• Polymarket confirmed engagement with both the CFTC and SEC on definitional frameworks for prediction market products, while rival Kalshi declined to comment on agency interactions
• The 2010 Dodd-Frank law gives the SEC potential jurisdiction over 'securities-based swaps' - contracts tied to individual securities or that directly affect a company's financial condition, creating ambiguity about which agency oversees certain prediction market contracts
• Legal experts expect the SEC will play a supportive role while the CFTC maintains primary oversight, with clearer definitions potentially accelerating institutional adoption but possibly requiring tighter trader protections and more complex account opening processes

A Chinese stock exchange filing revealed that AI startup DeepSeek raised external funding at a valuation of approximately $52 billion (350.88 billion yuan). Anhui Korrun disclosed that a fund involving its subsidiary invested 2.90 billion yuan for an indirect 0.8265% stake in DeepSeek. This filing provides rare public information about the low-profile company's maiden fundraising round, which DeepSeek has never publicly announced.

• The investment of 2.90 billion yuan for 0.8265% stake implies DeepSeek's total valuation at 350.88 billion yuan ($51.82 billion)
• This represents DeepSeek's first external fundraising round, which the company has not publicly disclosed or detailed
• The information came to light through a stock exchange filing by Anhui Korrun regarding its subsidiary's fund investment

Small-cap stocks are experiencing their strongest rally in over three decades, with all 11 small-cap GICS sectors outperforming their large-cap counterparts for the first time in 30 years. State Street's Matt Bartolini characterizes this as a sustainable rally driven by fundamental momentum rather than a short squeeze, supported by Wall Street firms upgrading small-cap earnings expectations.

• State Street's small-cap ETFs tracking the S&P 600 indexes are up more than 20% this year, compared to near-flat or negative performance in the prior year period
• Non-heavily shorted small-cap stocks are outperforming heavily shorted ones, indicating a sustainable rally rather than a 'junk rally' or short squeeze
• Analysts recommend investors look beyond large-cap concentration in the S&P 500, noting small-caps remain overlooked despite strong fundamentals and combined mutual fund/ETF flow data showing continued large-cap preference