Xi-Trump summit may yield farm deal, but China has limited soybean appetite

• China purchased only 15% of its soybeans from the U.S. last year, down from 41% in 2016, due to weak demand and cheaper Brazilian alternatives
• Expected deals focus on corn, sorghum, milling wheat, beef and poultry rather than soybeans, which represented $12 billion in trade compared to $4.5 billion for other products in 2024
• Uncertainty remains about China's October commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually through 2028, with unclear details on whether targets apply to calendar or crop years

Summary

An anticipated Xi-Trump summit this week may produce a U.S.-China agricultural deal, but market analysts expect limited new soybean purchases beyond existing commitments. Agriculture remains one of the less contentious areas in bilateral relations, though specific deliverables remain uncertain.

Key Figures:

• China committed to purchasing 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028 (agreed October, details unconfirmed)
• 2024 Chinese agricultural purchases: $12 billion in soybeans, $4.5 billion in other products (corn, sorghum, milling wheat)
• China sourced only 20% of soybeans from the U.S. in 2024 (down from 41% in 2016); just 15% in the most recent year

Market Implications:

China's soybean demand is constrained by weak domestic consumption and cheaper Brazilian alternatives, limiting appetite for increased U.S. purchases. Instead, markets anticipate new deals for corn, sorghum, milling wheat, beef, and poultry—some discussed during March high-level talks.

More than one U.S. executive, including Cargill chair Brian Sikes, will accompany Trump on the visit. The White House seeks larger agricultural commitments, though a senior U.S. official stopped short of specifying products or timing.

Chicago soybean prices have reached two-month highs on speculation of increased Chinese purchases. Confirmation of renewed demand would likely push prices higher. However, uncertainty surrounds the 25-million-ton commitment's implementation—whether it applies to calendar or crop years remains unclear.

The American Soybean Association expressed hope for additional purchases to reach "typical" export levels but provided no specific volume targets.