General Market News

Europe's benchmark natural gas contract fell approximately 5% on Thursday after Iran announced a draft U.S. peace deal that would reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Dutch TTF front-month contract dropped to €44.79 per megawatt hour before recovering slightly to €45.28/MWh, reflecting market optimism about restored energy supply routes.

• The benchmark Dutch TTF gas contract fell as much as €2.69 to €44.79 per MWh during Thursday afternoon trading
• Iran's state TV reported Tehran obtained a draft framework with the U.S. to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels
• The price partially recovered to €45.28/MWh by 1234 GMT, indicating some market caution about the preliminary nature of the agreement

At least 18 mining companies have completed or are pursuing U.S. listings in 2026, versus just three in 2025, with firms explicitly targeting defence-related demand for critical minerals like antimony, rare earths, tungsten, and uranium. The surge follows China's export restrictions on strategic minerals and the Pentagon's push to rebuild domestic supply chains, with companies securing government contracts and defence-linked funding. This marks a shift from traditional mining IPOs, as firms position themselves as suppliers for U.S. weapons systems and military applications.

• Guardian Metal Resources received $6.2 million from the Pentagon and has contracts worth at least $100 million; United States Antimony secured a $245 million Defense Logistics Agency contract for the defence stockpile
• China imposed export controls on antimony in August 2024 and tungsten in 2025, prompting the U.S. military to fund small-scale refineries and President Trump to announce a $12 billion 'Project Vault' strategic minerals stockpile initiative
• Companies raised modest sums initially (Guardian: $68.3 million, Rare Earth Americas: $63.3 million), but are accessing Pentagon-linked programs and government equity stakes that provide defence contracts, subsidies, and protection from price cyclicality

Taiwanese battery maker ProLogium Technology will go public on Nasdaq through a $3.8 billion SPAC merger with Translational Development Acquisition Corp, with the deal expected to close in the second half of 2026. The funds will be used to scale production of fourth-generation solid-state batteries and construct a manufacturing facility in Dunkirk, France, with mass production targeted for Q2 2029.

• ProLogium, founded in 2006, has shipped over 2.4 million lithium ceramic battery cells to customers since 2013 and will trade under ticker symbol 'PRLG'
• Proceeds will fund expansion into growth markets including data centers, aerospace, robotics, and defense beyond the company's core electric vehicle battery business
• The Dunkirk, France facility construction is expected to begin later in 2026, with formal mass production and deliveries starting in Q2 2029

Nuclear power startup Newcleo announced it will go public in the U.S. through a SPAC merger with NewHold Investment Corp III, valuing the company at approximately $2.4 billion pre-money. The deal is expected to generate up to $429 million in gross proceeds and close in the second half of the year, with shares trading on Nasdaq under ticker 'NWCL'.

• Newcleo, founded in 2021, develops advanced modular lead-cooled fast reactors and mixed oxide nuclear fuel from reprocessed nuclear materials
• The capital will enable rapid advancement of reactor deployment and fuel manufacturing capabilities across Europe and the United States
• The deal reflects growing interest in nuclear energy as technology companies seek alternative future power sources

European Central Bank Vice President Luis De Guindos warned that market correction risk is 'quite elevated' despite stocks hitting record highs, citing high valuations, geopolitical risks including the war in Iran, and vulnerabilities in non-bank financial institutions. The ECB's Financial Stability Review highlighted that geoeconomic stress, fiscal challenges in highly indebted euro area countries, and underestimated downside risks could test market sentiment.

• The ECB identified multiple risk factors converging: high market valuations, the duration and impact of the Iran war, fiscal strains in indebted European nations, and vulnerabilities in private credit and private equity institutions interconnected with the banking system
• Non-bank financial institutions face particular risks from their low liquidity buffers, high portfolio valuations, and concentrated exposures that could trigger forced asset sales and amplify market stress during broad-based downturns
• Euro area inflation reached 3% as of April, with the ECB keeping rates unchanged while maintaining a data-dependent approach; ECB President Lagarde indicated readiness to hike rates if needed, with the next policy meeting scheduled for June 10-11

Republicans face a growing inflation crisis ahead of the 2026 midterms, with the consumer price index rising to 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, the highest since 2023. The GOP, which won power in 2024 promising to defeat Biden-era inflation, now confronts soaring energy prices driven by a war with Iran and questions about misplaced priorities like Trump's proposed $400 million White House ballroom. Democrats lead generic congressional polling by 7.1 points as voter discontent over affordability grows.

• Energy prices are surging with gasoline averaging $4.49 per gallon (up 51% since the Iran war began), while food-at-home prices rose 0.7% month-over-month in April compared to a 0.25% average in 2025
• Trump's economic approval has plummeted to 33%, and moderate Republicans like Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick openly criticized the White House ballroom proposal, stating 'both parties have gotten it wrong'
• Republicans hold only a five-seat House majority, and analysts predict oil could hit $200 per barrel by year-end if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, making pre-election price relief unlikely

Federal filings reveal President Trump's trust executed over 5,200 securities trades during his second term, with approximately 4,000 occurring in Q1 2025 alone—averaging 65 trades per business day. The trust pivoted sharply from fixed-income securities in 2025 to aggressive stock trading in early 2026, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure stocks. The high volume and 45-day disclosure lag make these trades nearly impossible for retail investors to replicate.

• The trust's trading pace of 65 transactions per business day exceeds any member of Congress over the past year, representing highly unusual activity for a sitting politician
• Major portfolio shift included trimming large-cap tech positions (Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix) while adding AI infrastructure stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, Applied Materials, Vistra, and Eaton
• Customer-directed 'unsolicited' trades jumped from just two instances in late 2025 to 27% of March 2026's 2,100+ trades, though the White House maintains third parties run trades through 'automated investment processes'

Options traders are betting the 'SaaS-pocalypse' is over as software stocks enter a technical bull market, up more than 25% since April lows. Salesforce's earnings report on Wednesday is expected to have an outsized impact on the sector, with options sentiment turning heavily bullish. The cloud giant, down over 50% from its all-time highs, faces heightened expectations as traders position for significant post-earnings movement.

• Software stock options trading shows bullish sentiment with more calls than puts being purchased, signaling trader confidence in sector recovery
• Salesforce options traders are pricing in a 7.8% move post-earnings, more than double the average 3-4% realized move from the past four earnings reports
• One trader spent $650,000 on short-term call options betting on a nearly 10% upward move in Salesforce by Friday, with 61% of premium traded around calls and over 10,600 calls bought versus 4,100 puts

U.S. small-cap technology stocks are surging in 2025, with the S&P 600 small-cap tech index up nearly 54% versus 20.1% for the S&P 500 tech index, as investors seek AI exposure beyond mega-cap companies. The Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Tech ETF has attracted $49.7 million in inflows this year after four consecutive years of outflows. However, some analysts warn the rally may be driven more by speculation than fundamental improvements.

• Small-cap semiconductor companies like MaxLinear and VIAVI have posted triple-digit gains in 2025, with small-cap chipmakers expected to show nearly 40% profit growth in Q2, compared to just 7% earnings growth for the broader small-cap tech sector.
• The performance gap between small-cap and large-cap tech stocks is at its widest since before 1995, driven by investor interest in companies positioned to benefit from AI infrastructure buildout including chipmakers, data center suppliers, and network equipment makers.
• Despite strong stock price performance, profitability remains inconsistent for many small-cap tech winners, with companies like MaxLinear and VIAVI alternating between quarterly profits and losses, raising concerns about speculative versus fundamental drivers.

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi are aggressively pursuing institutional investors and hedge funds after initial success with retail traders. Kalshi's annualized trading volumes have tripled to $178 billion in six months, with institutional volumes up 800%. However, analysts warn that shallow liquidity and thin order books remain significant barriers to broader institutional adoption.

• Kalshi executed its first customized block trade and is partnering with brokers like Clear Street and Marex to provide institutional access, while firms like AQR and Susquehanna are hiring prediction market specialists
• Experts warn that markets need at least $10 million in daily notional volume to attract hedge funds, but top Polymarket markets currently have only about $30 million total liquidity
• Institutions are using prediction markets to hedge specific risks like monthly payroll data outcomes, often taking offsetting positions on the same platform with contracts exceeding several million dollars

Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as investors maintained optimism about a potential Iran peace deal despite recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian missile sites and vessels. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 2 basis points to 4.465%, while global bond markets broadly rallied amid easing geopolitical tensions.

• U.S. forces conducted strikes on missile launch sites in southern Iran and vessels allegedly deploying mines, though Washington claims restraint under the ceasefire framework
• The 2-year Treasury yield fell over 2 basis points to 4.022%, while the 30-year yield dropped 2 basis points to 5.005%
• Investors await April's PCE price index data later this week, with economists expecting 0.5% monthly increase and 3.8% year-over-year headline inflation

Scottish Mortgage Trust (SMT) stock has reached record highs in 2026, driven by its significant holdings in AI-related companies including SpaceX/xAI, Amazon/Anthropic, TSMC, and ASML. Technical analysis suggests a cup-and-handle pattern pointing to a potential 63% surge to 2,475p, though this may take months or years to materialize.

• SMT's largest holding is SpaceX (merging with xAI), set to IPO in June 2026, plus direct exposure to Anthropic (2.6% of portfolio), valued at $900 billion after recent fundraising
• The fund holds major AI infrastructure plays including Amazon ($8 billion invested in Anthropic), TSMC (leading chip manufacturer), and ASML (sole producer of advanced lithography machines)
• Chart shows golden cross formation (July 2024), price above 50-week and 200-week moving averages, with multi-year cup-and-handle pattern targeting 2,475p (+63% from current levels)

European stocks are expected to post modest gains through year-end despite headwinds from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and rising energy prices. The STOXX 600 is forecast to reach 645 points by year-end, up 2.6% from current levels, according to a Reuters poll of 14 analysts. European markets face disadvantages compared to other regions due to war impacts, potential ECB rate hikes, and limited AI sector exposure.

• Nearly all of the STOXX 600's 6.1% gain for 2026 came before the U.S.-Israel war with Iran started; the conflict threatens earnings as the ECB may raise rates to combat energy-driven inflation
• Europe's tech sector has risen 20% this year but represents only 10% of the STOXX 600, leaving the region with less exposure to the AI rally that has driven the S&P 500 up over 9%
• The UK's FTSE 100 is expected to outperform with a 1.9% gain to 10,700 points, benefiting from higher energy sector exposure, while Germany's industrial-heavy DAX faces headwinds with only 1.6% forecast gain

SK Hynix and another U.S. tech company joined the $1 trillion market capitalization club, driven by the AI boom that continues to fuel tech-heavy indices to record levels. China's industrial profits surged nearly 25% in April, the fastest gain in over two years, while European firms remain committed to Chinese manufacturing despite EU de-risking efforts.

• SK Hynix's market cap crossed $1 trillion as the South Korean chipmaker benefits from surging AI chip demand, with computing and electronics manufacturing earnings nearly doubling year-over-year
• UBS tripled its price target for a U.S. tech stock riding the AI wave, reflecting continued investor enthusiasm for AI-exposed companies
• BP Chairman Albert Manifold exited over conduct claims, while ECB officials reaffirmed commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2% target

European markets are expected to open mixed on Wednesday as investors monitor escalating U.S.-Iran tensions despite ongoing peace negotiations. The U.S. conducted 'self-defense' strikes on Iranian missile sites and vessels in southern Iran, which Iran condemned as violating the fragile ceasefire. The conflict centers on the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. officials stating it must be opened.

• U.K. index projected to open 0.2% lower while German, French, and Italian markets expected to rise between 0.13% and 0.34%
• U.S. carried out strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and vessels allegedly deploying mines, prompting Iran to accuse the U.S. of 'gross violation' of ceasefire
• Asian markets rallied with Japanese and South Korean indices hitting record highs, while U.S. futures remained flat after tech stocks drove the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new records

NASA awarded contracts totaling over $627 million to several space companies, including Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, to develop and deliver robotic landers, rovers, and drones for upcoming lunar exploration missions. The contracts support NASA's Artemis program, which aims to establish infrastructure on the moon and enable future deep-space exploration, with missions targeting the first crewed moon landing since 1972.

• Astrolab received $219 million and Lunar Outpost $220 million to build and deliver lunar terrain vehicles for moon surface operations
• Blue Origin was awarded $188 million to transport rovers to the moon using its uncrewed cargo lunar lander called Mark 1
• Firefly Aerospace was selected to build spacecraft for the MoonFall mission, scheduled to launch in 2028, which will transport drones from Earth's orbit to the moon

Gold and silver prices declined Tuesday, with spot gold falling 1.38% to $4,507.40 and silver down 1.41% to $76.975, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. equities rallied to record highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new peaks, as hopes for an Iran ceasefire extension and potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduced energy-driven inflation concerns that had previously supported precious metals.

• U.S. consumer confidence fell to 93.1 in May from 93.8 in April but beat the 91.9 consensus, while home-price growth continued to cool with the Case-Shiller national index rising just 0.7% year-over-year in March
• Reports suggest a possible two-month ceasefire extension in the Iran-U.S. standoff that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing energy-inflation risks that had previously supported gold through lower real-rate expectations
• The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,519.12 and Nasdaq gained 1.2% to 26,656.18, both record closes, while WTI crude settled at $93.89 and Brent at $99.58 per barrel

Recent strong economic data, including 115,000 jobs added in April 2026 and 3.8% annual inflation, suggests Federal Reserve rate cuts are unlikely in the near term. Despite higher Treasury yields rising approximately 45-50 basis points since the Iran war began, the S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weeks of gains, reaching new highs driven by robust fundamentals.

• U.S. labor market strengthened with 115,000 April jobs (vs. 65,000 expected) and unemployment holding at 4.3%, while the 6-month payroll moving average reached a one-year high of 55,000
• Inflation remains sticky with April CPI at 3.8% and Core CPI at 2.8% annually, both well above the Fed's 2% target
• S&P 500 companies reported Q1 earnings 20.2% higher than expectations, while U.S. GDP growth of 2% in Q1 outpaced the prior quarter's 0.5% and exceeded other major economies

A wave of mega-IPOs, including expected trillion-dollar listings from SpaceX and OpenAI, is raising concerns about potential market disruption. Deutsche Bank research suggests increased stock supply could pressure broader markets, while rule changes allowing faster entry into major indexes like the S&P 500 are drawing criticism for creating artificial demand and bypassing traditional qualification requirements.

• Deutsche Bank estimates the largest expected IPOs could push the broader market down about 1%, though the risk of larger negative impact exists given concerns about crowding out existing stocks in benchmark indexes
• Index providers including Nasdaq and S&P Dow Jones Indices are changing rules to fast-track high-profile companies into major benchmarks, potentially before they meet traditional requirements like 12 months as a public company and positive trailing earnings
• The largest expected IPO (likely SpaceX) would represent just 0.1% of current S&P 500 market cap, though critics warn rule changes create 'artificial demand' and make index fund investors 'involuntary' shareholders in unproven companies

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