General Market News

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has resigned from his position as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Miran joined the CEA in January 2025 and became a Fed Board of Governors member in September 2025, filling a term that ended on January 31.

• Miran served dual roles as Fed Governor and CEA chair before stepping down from the White House position
• His term as a Fed Board of Governors member ended on January 31, 2026
• He had been with the Council of Economic Advisers for approximately one year before his resignation

Mining companies are generating strong cash flows as gold, copper, and silver prices rise, but many continue using outdated conservative pricing models that undervalue assets and constrain strategic decisions. Nicole Adshead-Bell of Palisades Goldcorp warns this disconnect between spot prices and consensus pricing assumptions risks capital misallocation. The sector is seeing renewed M&A activity, though generalist investors remain largely absent.

• Mining companies face an 'unfamiliar challenge' of managing abundant cash generation as metal prices surge well above the conservative pricing frameworks still used in analyst models, reserve calculations, and transaction valuations
• The gap between higher spot prices and lagging consensus pricing is causing companies to potentially undervalue long-life assets and miss opportunities to capture full economic potential during the cycle
• Royalty and streaming companies are positioned as key beneficiaries with high-margin models, while broader institutional participation remains limited with 'generalists not yet in the sector' despite improved fundamentals

U.S. stock markets fell on Tuesday, led by a sharp decline in software stocks amid growing fears about AI disruption. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.4%, the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, and the Dow slipped 0.3%, while the VIX 'Fear Index' surged above 20, signaling rising investor unease.

• Software stocks were hammered by AI disruption concerns, with Intuit down over 11% and Salesforce falling nearly 7% after AI startup Anthropic released workplace productivity tools
• Tech giants also declined, with chip makers Nvidia and Broadcom each dropping about 3%, while most Magnificent Seven stocks shed more than 1%
• The sell-off lacked a clear trigger but appeared to accelerate year-to-date trends, with gold rising over 6% as investors sought safe-haven assets

South Korea's stock market is leading global equities in 2026 with the Kospi index up 25.5% year-to-date, vastly outperforming the U.S. S&P 500 which has nearly erased its 2026 gains. The surge is driven primarily by memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which have each soared approximately 40% as they supply critical components for AI accelerators and data centers.

• Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the Kospi, comprising 22% and 15.2% of the index respectively, benefiting from global AI chip demand with SK Hynix being the sole memory chip supplier for Microsoft's Maia 200 AI chip
• South Korea faces renewed tariff risks as President Trump threatened to raise U.S. tariffs from 15% to 25% due to slow implementation of a July 2025 trade pact, though Korean stocks rose 2.7% to record highs following the announcement
• JPMorgan analysts project the Kospi could reach 6,000 to 7,500 this year after South Korean President Lee Jae Myung achieved his campaign promise to double the index to 5,000, with the market currently at 5,288

John Feneck, CEO of Feneck Consulting, argues that extreme volatility in gold and silver reflects a structural market shift rather than a bull market breakdown, following sharp retreats after both metals hit record highs in late January. He contends that volatility is now a defining feature of the precious metals cycle, driven by years of suppressed demand, underinvestment, and eroding confidence in fiat currencies.

• Silver broke through 11 years of resistance at $30 before pulling back sharply, while major banks forecast gold reaching $3,400-$6,000, though Feneck warns neither metal has 'set the floors yet' with potential support at $50-$55 for silver and higher expectations of $66-$70.
• Mining equities continue to lag metal prices significantly, which Feneck calls illogical, though recent large financings and deals signal renewed capital flowing into the sector after years of scarcity.
• Feneck criticizes the Federal Reserve for avoiding discussion of dollar decline and purchasing power erosion, arguing this remains a core driver of precious metals demand despite short-term corrections.

Investors are increasing bets on a steeper Treasury yield curve as incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to shrink the Fed's balance sheet while cutting short-term rates. This dual approach could push long-term yields higher while keeping short-term rates subdued, creating tensions between dovish rate cuts and tighter financial conditions. The strategy raises concerns about implementation challenges and increased rate volatility.

• The Fed's balance sheet currently stands at $6.59 trillion; reducing it would withdraw government demand for Treasuries, pushing long-dated yields higher and steepening the curve
• Markets still price in roughly two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, with the first expected at the June 16-17 meeting, despite concerns about Warsh's policy shift from his previous hawkish stance (2006-2011)
• The Treasury 2/10-year yield curve hit 72.70 basis points on February 2, its steepest level since April 9, driven by inflation concerns and fiscal deficit fears even before Warsh's expected May confirmation

Novo Nordisk forecast a 5-13% sales decline for 2026, far worse than the expected 2% drop, triggering a selloff across obesity drug stocks. Eli Lilly fell 4%, while competitors Structure Therapeutics, Altimmune, Viking Therapeutics, and Amgen also declined. The disappointing outlook highlights intensifying competition and falling prices in the weight-loss drug market.

• Novo's fourth-quarter operating profit fell 14% to 31.7 billion Danish crowns, slightly beating the 31.2 billion crown estimate
• Wall Street analysts have slashed peak market forecasts from $150 billion to $80-105 billion by 2030 due to sharp U.S. price declines for GLP-1 treatments and increased competition in the cash-pay consumer market
• The broader selloff impacted major competitors, with Structure Therapeutics down 6.2%, Altimmune down 4.2%, and Viking Therapeutics falling over 3%

Global private equity exits rose 5.4% to 3,149 deals in 2025, but total deal value fell 21.2% to $412.1 billion, reflecting an industry under pressure to monetize aging assets at lower valuations. The trend stems from firms finally recalibrating expectations after years of holding out for higher prices, creating a backlog that has constrained returns to investors and dampened fundraising.

• PE fundraising declined 11% in 2025 to $490.81 billion, marking the second consecutive annual slowdown as limited partners receive lower cash distributions
• The pricing gap originated in 2022 when the S&P 500 fell 19% amid rising rates, but many PE firms avoided marking down portfolio company values
• Blackstone reported $33.9 billion in realizations for 2025, with Q4 generating $10.8 billion—the highest quarterly total of the year—and successfully executed the largest-ever U.S. PE-backed IPO with Medline, which raised over $4 billion and surged 30% post-debut

US stock markets showed mixed performance on February 3, 2026, with the Dow Jones rising 0.12% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.36% and 0.87% respectively due to technology sector weakness. The tech selloff was led by declines in Nvidia and Microsoft, both down over 2%, as investors awaited key earnings reports from Alphabet and Amazon while remaining cautious about AI investment returns.

• Technology sector dropped 2.37%, offsetting gains in Materials (up 2.96%) and Energy (up 1.78%), with seven of eleven sectors posting positive returns
• Merck rose over 3% and Pepsi gained 4% on strong earnings, while Palantir jumped 6% on upbeat guidance, helping lift the Dow
• March E-mini S&P 500 futures struggled below the record high of 7043.00, with technical support at the 50-day moving average of 6920.78 becoming critical as markets face uncertainty over AI profitability and upcoming tech earnings

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is calling for aggressive interest rate cuts of more than 100 basis points in 2025, maintaining his dissenting position after voting against the Fed's decision to hold rates steady at 3.5-3.75% in January. Miran argues current rates are too high due to measurement quirks in inflation calculations rather than actual price pressures, putting him at odds with other Fed officials who favor a more cautious approach.

• Miran dissented alongside Governor Christopher Waller at the January 28 FOMC meeting, voting for a quarter-point cut while the committee voted 10-2 to hold rates unchanged after three consecutive cuts in late 2024
• He advocates for 'a little bit more than a point' (over 100 basis points) of cuts this year, significantly more aggressive than market expectations of two 25 basis point cuts
• Miran's Fed term expired January 31, though he may remain until a successor is confirmed, with Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed chair and potentially filling Miran's vacancy

Schaeffers Research has identified 25 stocks to buy for February 2026 based on 10 years of historical data, with software company Fortinet (FTNT) topping the list. The analysis comes as investors digest January's geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and earnings reports, with all three major indexes posting modest gains for the month despite weekly volatility.

• Fortinet (FTNT) has finished February higher in 9 of the past 10 years with an average return of 8.5%, which would bring shares from $81.02 to $87.90 if repeated
• FTNT's put/call open interest ratio of 1.19 sits in the 91st percentile, indicating heavy bearish sentiment that could unwind and boost the stock
• The Dow Jones logged its ninth straight January gain and longest January winning streak since 2018, despite finishing Friday with a third consecutive weekly loss

The U.S. dollar is experiencing extreme volatility in early 2026 due to unpredictable White House policies and concerns over Federal Reserve independence, triggering 'Sell America' trades. After falling nearly 2% to four-year lows in January, the dollar's sudden rebound caused chaos across metals, currency, and equity markets. Analysts warn the dollar has detached from traditional economic metrics, posing risks to the nearly $70 trillion in U.S. assets held by foreign investors.

• Gold suffered its biggest daily drop since the early 1980s, falling 5% on Monday after the dollar rebounded following Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell, disrupting popular currency debasement trades.
• Currency volatility has spiked dramatically, with the euro/dollar three-month volatility gauge hitting its highest level since July, while Barclays identifies a new 'U.S. policy risk premium' detaching the dollar from traditional valuation metrics.
• Foreign investors hold nearly $70 trillion in U.S. assets, but Bank of America warns a 'disorderly' dollar decline of 5% monthly could trigger drastic Treasury sell-offs, with portfolio managers now hedging aggressively and reducing North American exposure.

Bank of America has raised its S&P 500 price target, projecting a 12% gain over the next 12 months to approximately 7,815 from the current level of 6,974. The bullish outlook is based on the bank's Sell Side Indicator, which tracks Wall Street strategists' equity allocations and currently signals further upside despite already strong market sentiment.

• The Sell Side Indicator reached its most optimistic level since March 2025, but remains below thresholds historically associated with market peaks
• Bank of America analysts see no conditions typically preceding a market top, with strategists maintaining steady equity exposure amid confidence in corporate earnings
• Wall Street analysts continue forecasting double-digit earnings growth for 2026 with no downward revisions in early reporting season results

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed January 2026 with a three-week losing streak, underperforming other major indices due to weakness in software and financial stocks. Major Dow components including Salesforce (down 20%), Microsoft (down 12%), and financials like JPMorgan Chase and American Express faced pressure from sector-specific headwinds. Despite the decline, analysts view the volatility as normal and note the Dow's relatively modest valuation of 23.6x trailing P/E compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

• Software stocks led Dow declines with Salesforce dropping 20% and Microsoft falling 12% year-to-date, while UnitedHealth Group declined 13%
• Financial sector stocks faced pressure from Trump administration's credit card cap proposals, impacting JPMorgan Chase and American Express
• The Dow's limited exposure to mega-cap AI tech stocks may prove a disadvantage if AI monetization accelerates, despite its lower valuation multiple

European software, data analytics, and advertising stocks suffered a sharp selloff on Tuesday as new AI models, particularly Anthropic's updated Claude chatbot, raised concerns about whether incumbent firms can defend their business models. Companies previously seen as AI winners, including RELX, Wolters Kluwer, and SAP, experienced significant declines as investors questioned their ability to monetize AI investments and compete with rapidly evolving AI technologies.

• RELX and Wolters Kluwer, both serving the legal analytics industry, dropped over 10% following Anthropic's Claude chatbot updates
• SAP plunged over 16% last week after missing cloud revenue forecasts, wiping out $40 billion in market value in one day
• Advertising firms face particular pressure, with a Barclays survey identifying them as the most exposed European media sector to AI disruption, ranking WPP, Omnicom, and Publicis as top 'AI losers'

US stock futures edged higher on Tuesday as investors responded to a strong earnings season kickoff, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.31%. Market sentiment was boosted by upbeat results from tech companies like Palantir and Teradyne, though volatility persisted in commodities and crypto markets. Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, including AMD, Pfizer, Amazon, and Alphabet.

• Palantir surged 11% on strong Q4 results and guidance, while Teradyne jumped over 20% on better-than-expected forecasts driven by data-center demand; Nvidia fell 3% after reports its OpenAI investment plans had stalled
• Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level since April as risk appetite waned, while precious metals rebounded sharply with spot gold up 5.52% to $4,917.17 per ounce and silver rising 9.5% to $86.83
• A partial US government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases including January employment figures and JOLTS, adding uncertainty as investors assess growth and returns from AI-related capital spending

Indian markets have responded positively to the recent India-US trade breakthrough, raising hopes that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) may return after months of net selling. FIIs withdrew ₹106,606 crore from Indian equities since August 2025 amid trade tensions, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) invested a record $90.1 billion in 2025, cushioning the market impact.

• FIIs turned net buyers of ₹1,906 crore in early February 2026 after persistent selling, signaling a potential shift in sentiment following the trade deal
• India's equity market has underperformed other emerging markets by around 40% over the past year due to geopolitical pressures and domestic headwinds
• Analysts view the trade agreement as a structural positive that reduces policy risks and could re-anchor foreign capital to India's growth story, though execution risks remain

U.S. equities rose on Monday with the S&P 500 gaining on strong tech performance, while a sharp rebound in U.S. manufacturing activity is expected to limit Federal Reserve rate cuts. President Trump announced a trade deal with India requiring it to halt Russian oil purchases in exchange for reduced tariffs from 50% to 18%, boosting India's rupee and stocks significantly.

• U.S. manufacturing expanded in January per ISM survey, complicating the Fed's easing plans and interest rate outlook
• Gold surged over 5% on Tuesday, tracking for its largest single-day gain since 2008 after recent precious metals volatility
• India's rupee saw its biggest one-day boost in seven years following the U.S.-India trade deal, with Indian stock indexes jumping over 2%

U.S. space stocks rose on Tuesday after Elon Musk announced SpaceX's merger with xAI, valued at $1.25 trillion, aimed at expanding AI infrastructure in space. Musk projects space-based AI compute will become cost-effective within 2-3 years as the combined entity pursues artificial general intelligence. SpaceX is also planning an IPO that could value it above $1.5 trillion.

• Space stocks rallied with Rocket Lab and Planet Labs up 3%, Redwire up 4.9%, and several others posting gains of 1-2% in premarket trading
• The merger combines AI, rocket technology, satellite internet, and communications into a vertically integrated entity, with SpaceX recently requesting permission to launch solar-powered satellites for AI data centers
• Seraphim Space CEO called it 'the strongest validation yet that space will be the backbone of the next wave of AI' as global space tech investment accelerates