Dow Jones jumps 1,300 pts as Iran ceasefire sparks global rally

• Crude oil prices fell sharply, with WTI down 16% to $94/barrel and Brent down 14% to $93/barrel, causing energy stocks to decline while airline stocks surged 10-13%
• Major indices rallied broadly with S&P 500 up 2.48% and Nasdaq 100 up 3.15%, while Asian and European markets gained 4-5%
• Interest-rate futures now show 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by end of 2026, shifting from prior expectations of no easing this year

Market Summary: Iran Ceasefire Triggers Major Rally

Key Market Movements:

U.S. equities surged Wednesday following a surprise two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The Dow Jones jumped 1,366 points (+2.93%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 2.48% and 3.15%, respectively. Global markets in Asia and Europe rallied 4-5%.

Ceasefire Details:

President Trump agreed to suspend military operations against Iran for two weeks to allow negotiations on a 10-point Iranian proposal. Iran's Supreme National Security Council agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during this period, with Israel also reportedly accepting the truce.

Energy Markets:

Crude oil prices plummeted on reduced geopolitical risk. West Texas Intermediate fell over 16% to approximately $94/barrel, while Brent crude declined 14% to near $93/barrel. Energy stocks suffered losses from the price collapse.

Sector Performance:

• Winners: Airlines led gains with American Airlines (+10%), United Airlines (+13.7%), and Delta (+10.8%). Cruise operators Carnival and Norwegian gained over 12%. Megacap tech stocks including Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla posted notable advances.
• Losers: Energy sector stocks declined alongside crude prices.

Monetary Policy Implications:

Interest-rate futures now price in a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut by end-2026, shifting from expectations of no cuts. Investors await commentary from Fed officials Mary Daly and Christopher Waller, plus March meeting minutes and upcoming inflation data.

Outlook:

Analysts caution that while the ceasefire provides temporary relief, geopolitical uncertainty persists and volatility is expected to continue across asset classes.