General Market News

The Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, has been delayed from its expected April 16 date due to missing paperwork. The delay threatens the Trump administration's goal of installing Warsh by mid-May when current Chair Jerome Powell's term expires. Warsh's path to confirmation faces additional complications from Republican Senator Thom Tillis's opposition over a DOJ investigation into Powell.

• The Senate Banking Committee has not received required paperwork including financial disclosures from Warsh, whose wife is Estée Lauder heir Jane Lauder (estimated net worth $1.9 billion); his 2006 disclosures listed nearly 1,200 assets
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is blocking the nomination until the Department of Justice drops a criminal probe into current Fed Chair Powell, which both Tillis and Powell view as politically motivated
• The administration aims to have Warsh confirmed by May 15 when Powell's term as chair expires, but the timeline now appears increasingly challenging

The February PCE index showed core inflation at 3.0% year-over-year, well above the Fed's 2% target, reflecting pre-war baseline inflation. This data predates the recent U.S.-Iran conflict and subsequent energy shock, which has driven oil from $65 to $102 and triggered widespread price increases across fuel, shipping, food, and consumer goods. The fragile ceasefire is holding but the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, complicating the Fed's balancing act between combating inflation and supporting a weakening economy.

• Core PCE at 3.0% represents baseline inflation before war-related disruptions, with gasoline prices surging 38% (from $2.98 to $4.11), fertilizer up 40%, and plastics rising 37-40% since conflict began
• Economic warning signs emerged as Q4 GDP was revised down to just 0.5% from 1.4%, personal income fell 0.1% while spending rose 0.5%, and ISM Services Employment dropped to 45.2, a recessionary level
• Analysts expect oil to settle in the $80s rather than returning to pre-war $65 levels, creating a two-track market favoring AI and tech stocks over consumer-facing businesses absorbing higher costs

US stocks rallied on Thursday, with the Dow Jones rising 275 points (0.58%) to 48,185.80, driven by optimism over potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. All three major indexes gained as diplomatic progress and ceasefire hopes between the US and Iran bolstered investor confidence, despite ongoing oil supply concerns and elevated crude prices.

• Oil prices remained volatile with WTI rising 4% above $98 per barrel as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—carrying one-fifth of global oil supply—remains severely constrained despite the fragile ceasefire
• The CBOE Volatility Index dropped to its lowest level since the conflict began, while the S&P 500 gained 0.62% and Nasdaq climbed 0.83%, led by AI and retail stocks including Amazon
• Geopolitical uncertainty persists as Iran accuses Israel of ceasefire violations and President Trump warns US forces will remain until Iran complies with the agreement terms

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed frustration that UK energy bills are volatile due to actions by U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. His comments come amid fluctuating oil prices during a fragile ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, with global energy markets remaining unstable since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

• Starmer stated he is 'fed up' with UK families and businesses experiencing energy bill fluctuations driven by Trump and Putin's actions across the world
• Oil prices have soared during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and remain volatile amid a two-week ceasefire that both sides have accused each other of violating
• Starmer also criticized Israel as 'wrong' for ordering deadly strikes on Lebanon during the ceasefire, adding to regional tensions affecting energy markets

As of April 2026, nearly 50% of individual investors expect stocks to decline, yet several under-the-radar catalysts could move markets significantly. Historically bullish contrarian signals, defense sector strength, and potential tariff-revenue stimulus present upside opportunities, while deteriorating consumer credit, stretched valuations (CAPE ratio at 37), and the July USMCA trade agreement review pose downside risks.

• Extreme bearish sentiment (49.8% per AAII survey) has historically preceded market rallies, suggesting sidelined cash could fuel a snap-back if earnings hold steady through next reporting season
• Consumer credit stress is intensifying with subprime auto delinquencies at 6.65% (exceeding Great Recession levels), $18 trillion in total debt, and private credit firms like Ares capping redemptions as 15% of borrowers cannot cover interest payments
• The July 1, 2026 USMCA review could disrupt North American supply chains across autos, manufacturing, and energy sectors, yet remains largely unpriced by markets despite potential for bilateral renegotiation threats

Retail investors are returning to technology stocks after recent pullbacks lowered valuations and reduced bearish sentiment. The shift follows geopolitical tensions that pressured the Mag 7 tech giants earlier this year, with investors now viewing the sector as attractively priced. Tech stocks remain core holdings across all generational cohorts, making this renewed interest significant for the broader investing community.

• Bearish sentiment among individual investors declined from 51% to 43% week-over-week, while bullish sentiment rose from 34% to 36%, according to the American Association of Individual Investors survey
• Apple and Microsoft are seeing renewed retail interest, with Palantir experiencing its biggest day of net buying since October 2025, according to Vanda data
• First quarter data from Apex Fintech Solutions shows Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple remain top holdings across age groups, though Boomers favor defensive stocks like Exxon and J&J while Gen Z added bitcoin proxy Strategy

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned central banks to carefully balance responses to war-driven energy price shocks, avoiding premature rate hikes that could harm growth while remaining vigilant against sustained inflation. The Middle East war that began February 28 has caused oil prices to jump 50%, creating policy challenges as demand softens. She emphasized that long-run inflation expectations remain anchored despite short-term pressures.

• Oil prices have surged 50% due to the Middle East conflict, but if the Iran ceasefire holds and supply shocks are short-lived, central banks may hold rates steady with only slight inflation increases
• Georgieva cautioned against premature tightening, warning that 'throwing cold water on growth' could turn a supply shock into a combined supply-and-demand shock
• The IMF is advising countries to craft temporary fiscal support with sunset clauses, stressing that deficit-financed stimulus would conflict with monetary policy goals

Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 last week, exceeding expectations by 9,000 and signaling potential labor market softening. However, continuing claims fell to 1.794 million, the lowest in nearly two years. February PCE data showed inflation holding steady at 2.8% year-over-year, while Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.5%, marking the weakest quarterly growth since early 2022.

• Initial jobless claims jumped to 219K, 9,000 above consensus, while continuing claims dropped to 1.794 million, the lowest level in nearly two years
• February PCE inflation remained at 2.8% year-over-year as expected, with core PCE at 3.0%, reflecting muted inflation activity before recent economic disruptions
• Q4 GDP was revised down 20 basis points to 0.5%, bringing full-year 2024 GDP growth to 2.2%, the weakest annual growth since 2022

Citigroup has raised its forecast for US ETF assets under management, projecting growth to over $25 trillion by 2030 and $40 trillion by 2035, up from $10.4 trillion as of March 2025. The upward revision reflects strong investor demand for cost-efficient investment vehicles and continued innovation in the ETF market. Active ETFs are expected to lead growth as the industry enters a more mature expansion phase.

• US ETF AUM projected to reach $25 trillion by 2030 and $40 trillion by 2035, significantly higher than Citi's prior estimates of $19 trillion and $29 trillion respectively
• Active ETFs expected to outpace passive products in attracting capital, representing the fastest-growing segment with flexible strategies and lower costs
• Strong momentum continues with US-domiciled ETFs attracting over $435 billion in inflows year-to-date and equity ETFs recording $75.8 billion so far this year

US stocks fell Thursday as oil prices surged back toward $100 per barrel amid continued restrictions on Strait of Hormuz traffic. Iran accused the US of violating a newly announced two-week ceasefire, jeopardizing the reopening of the vital waterway that handles 20% of global oil supply. The market reversal came just one day after stocks rallied on President Trump's ceasefire announcement.

• Brent crude jumped 3.9% to $98.42 and WTI rose 4.6% to $91.74, while the Dow fell 128 points (0.3%) as Iran continued blocking ships through the Strait of Hormuz despite ceasefire terms requiring its reopening
• US gasoline prices climbed to $4.17 per gallon and energy experts warn it could take months for global supplies to normalize even if the strait fully reopens
• Iran reportedly seeks tolls as high as $2 million per ship for passage and claims the US violated the ceasefire agreement after Israel launched strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, with VP JD Vance scheduled to lead talks Saturday

US stocks declined on Thursday, with the Dow falling 175 points, as a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran showed signs of strain. Oil prices rebounded above $98-99 per barrel due to continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, adding pressure to equities. The selloff reversed Wednesday's strong rally when the Dow had surged over 1,300 points.

• Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire citing Israel's Lebanon strikes and drone incursions, while Trump warned of 'major escalation' if Iran breaches the agreement
• Crude oil jumped 4-5% as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited despite the ceasefire framework meant to reopen the critical shipping route
• Economic data showed mixed signals: PCE inflation at 2.8% year-over-year matched forecasts, jobless claims rose to 219,000 (above 210,000 estimate), and Q4 GDP growth came in at 0.5% versus 0.7% expected

Oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel on Thursday after Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed to most shipping despite a ceasefire, demanding Israel end attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The S&P 500 diverged from oil markets, reversing higher by 0.2% and extending its winning streak to six sessions. U.S.-Iran negotiations are set to begin Friday in Pakistan, with discussions expected to cover tariffs, sanctions relief, and potentially a joint toll collection arrangement for the Strait.

• WTI crude jumped 5.8% to $99.91 after briefly crossing $102, with futures markets pricing oil above $80 through September compared to below $70 before the Feb. 28 conflict start
• Trump signaled flexibility on financial terms including 'tariff and sanctions relief' and described a potential joint U.S.-Iran toll collection venture as 'a beautiful thing,' with Iran possibly demanding payment in bitcoin
• The S&P 500 rose 0.2% despite oil volatility, finishing its sixth consecutive session of gains and sitting 2.8% below its January all-time high

Oil prices surged toward $100 per barrel on Thursday as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed to most shipping traffic, demanding Israel halt attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon despite a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. The closure of this critical oil transit point has elevated prices significantly from pre-conflict levels below $70, while S&P 500 futures slipped slightly after Wednesday's major rally.

• WTI crude jumped 5.2% to $99.34 per barrel, up from below $70 before the Feb. 28 conflict start, with futures showing prices remaining above $80 through September
• Iran is leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Israel, while Trump indicated the U.S. may accept a joint toll-collection arrangement with Iran, calling it 'a beautiful thing'
• S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after Wednesday's 2.5% rally, with the index now 2.8% below its January all-time high and up 6.9% from its March 30 conflict low

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the PCE index, remained elevated in February 2026, rising 0.4% monthly and 2.8% year-over-year. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% monthly and 3% annually, both meeting economist expectations. The persistent inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, presenting challenges for monetary policy decisions.

• The PCE index rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, while core PCE increased 3%, both exceeding the Fed's 2% long-run inflation target
• Monthly increases of 0.4% for both headline and core PCE aligned with LSEG economist expectations, indicating continued price pressures
• The Fed focuses on core PCE as a better indicator of underlying inflation trends when setting monetary policy

The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department's final reading. This growth rate fell short of economist expectations of 0.7% expansion for the October-December period. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released these figures showing a slowdown in economic activity.

• Fourth quarter GDP growth came in at 0.5%, missing the consensus forecast of 0.7% from LSEG-polled economists
• The figure represents the final reading from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the three-month period covering October, November, and December
• The slower-than-expected growth rate indicates a deceleration in US economic expansion during the final quarter

European government bond markets experienced extreme volatility on Thursday, with yields rebounding sharply after plunging the previous day, driven by uncertainty over a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and rising oil prices. The volatility is complicating interest rate outlooks for the Bank of England and European Central Bank, as elevated energy costs fuel inflation concerns. Market strategists describe this volatility as the 'new norm' and remain divided on whether further rate hikes are necessary.

• U.K. 10-year gilt yields rose 6 basis points to 4.775% after falling 21 basis points Wednesday; German 10-year bund yields climbed 5 basis points to 2.9886% after dropping 17 basis points the prior session
• Oil prices surged over 3-4% Thursday, with Brent crude reaching $97.60 and U.S. crude hitting $98.53, raising inflationary pressures particularly for Europe as a net energy importer
• Markets now price in 25 basis points of Bank of England rate hikes this year (down from 50 basis points pre-ceasefire) and two ECB hikes, though strategists debate whether central banks should wait rather than react prematurely

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed core inflation at 3% in February, matching economists' expectations according to the Dow Jones consensus. This metric is closely watched by the Federal Reserve as a key gauge for monetary policy decisions.

• Core PCE inflation came in at 3% annually in February, in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast
• The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation for guiding interest rate policy
• The reading meeting expectations suggests no immediate surprises for Fed policy makers in their inflation fight

U.S. stock futures pulled back Thursday morning, erasing some of the prior session's gains as Middle East ceasefire optimism faded. Brent crude held above $97 per barrel due to supply concerns, with only three ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while roughly 800 tankers remain waiting. Investors are awaiting key economic data including jobless claims, PCE inflation, and revised Q4 GDP.

• Dow futures down 0.4%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, reversing Wednesday's relief rally
• Only 3 ships passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday with approximately 800 tankers waiting, supporting oil prices above $97/barrel
• Applied Digital shares fell in premarket despite earnings beat due to lack of new hyperscaler deals; $22 billion auction of 30-year Treasurys scheduled

Swiss-based quantum technology company Terra Quantum plans to list on Nasdaq later this year through a SPAC merger with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. II at a $3.25 billion valuation. The company, founded in 2019, counts the U.S. Air Force among its clients and has collaborated with global firms including Siemens, Unilever, HSBC, and BBVA. The listing will fund product development and acquisitions as the company seeks to capitalize on U.S. leadership in the quantum technology sector.

• The company chose a U.S. listing because America is 'the powerhouse and the benchmark' for quantum technology and has led in setting regulatory standards
• Terra Quantum has worked with major clients across defense, finance, pharmaceuticals, and logistics on applications including drone design and derivatives pricing
• Founder and CEO Markus Pflitsch will remain a major shareholder, and the company will generate recurring revenue from licensing its large library of IP-protected algorithms

Global markets paused their relief rally on Thursday as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire showed signs of fragility, with both sides disputing terms of the agreement. Oil prices jumped back above $98 per barrel amid renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure, while equities and Treasuries retreated. Investors await U.S. February PCE inflation data expected to show 0.4% monthly gains, even before the latest energy price spike.

• Brent and WTI crude topped $98 per barrel as Iran warned vessels in the Strait of Hormuz would be 'targeted and destroyed' without permission, with daily shipping traffic falling to less than 10% of historical averages
• Asian equities declined with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI both falling after multi-day gains, while European futures opened in the red and the dollar traded mixed
• Fed minutes revealed 'many participants' still favor rate cuts despite some policymakers advocating a pause, with 'most' seeing potential risks to economic growth from the conflict