U.S.-Iran ceasefire relief rally lifts global assets as oil plunges below $100

• Asian markets rallied sharply with South Korea's Kospi up over 5%, Japan's Nikkei rising 4%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining more than 2%
• Oil prices plummeted over 12-14%, with WTI crude falling to $96.98 per barrel as Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks
• Safe havens defied typical de-escalation patterns, with gold rising 2.2% to $4,803 per ounce and 10-year Treasury yields falling 9 basis points to 4.253%, reflecting ongoing market fragility

Summary

Key Development:

A 2-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran triggered a global relief rally across markets. The deal is contingent on Iran's "complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz," with Iran's Foreign Minister confirming safe passage would be possible during this period.

Market Reactions:

*Equities:* Global stocks surged broadly. Asian markets led gains with South Korea's benchmark up over 5%, Kosdaq +3.4%, Japan's Nikkei +4%, Topix +3.2%, Australia +2.7%, Hong Kong +2%, and China's CSI 300 +2.15%. U.S. futures rose across indices: Dow +967 points (+2.1%), S&P 500 +2.1%, Nasdaq +2.3%, and Bitcoin +2% to $71,508.

*Oil:* Crude prices plunged below $100/barrel, with WTI falling over 14% to $96.98 and Brent declining more than 12% to approximately $96.

*Safe Havens:* Unusually, defensive assets also strengthened. Gold rose 2.2% to $4,803.83/oz, with spot gold up over 3% to $4,835.90. Treasury yields fell: 10-year down 9 basis points to 4.253%, 2-year to 4.839%, and 30-year declining 7 basis points to 4.851%.

Market Implications:

Analysts characterized this as a "relief rally layered on top of a still fragile macro backdrop." Billy Leung of Global X ETFs noted investors are tactically adding risk while maintaining defensive hedges, reflecting persistent uncertainty. The simultaneous strength in both risk assets and safe havens indicates investors remain cautious about potential reversals. Underlying macro concerns persist, including unresolved growth fears and inflation shocks from prior energy price spikes.