Oil Prices Hit $100 With Hormuz Closed Despite Ceasefire, But S&P 500 Diverges

• WTI crude jumped 5.8% to $99.91 after briefly crossing $102, with futures markets pricing oil above $80 through September compared to below $70 before the Feb. 28 conflict start
• Trump signaled flexibility on financial terms including 'tariff and sanctions relief' and described a potential joint U.S.-Iran toll collection venture as 'a beautiful thing,' with Iran possibly demanding payment in bitcoin
• The S&P 500 rose 0.2% despite oil volatility, finishing its sixth consecutive session of gains and sitting 2.8% below its January all-time high

Market Summary: Oil Prices Surge Above $100 as Hormuz Remains Closed

Key Developments

U.S. crude oil (WTI) prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel Thursday, reaching $102 before settling at $99.91 (+5.8%), despite a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran brokered by Pakistan. Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil shipping chokepoint—would remain closed to most traffic until Israel ceases attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Price Movements and Context

Oil prices had plummeted to $91.05 Wednesday after peaking at $117 Tuesday. Prior to the Feb. 28 conflict start, oil traded below $70/barrel. Futures markets indicate prices will remain above $80 through September. The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) rose 1.7% Thursday after dropping 9.8% Wednesday.

Market Reaction

The S&P 500 diverged from oil's surge, reversing early losses to gain 0.2% and holding its 50-day line. The index extended its winning streak to six sessions—the longest since April—and jumped 2.5% Wednesday. The benchmark currently sits 2.8% below its January 27 all-time high and 6.9% above its March 30 conflict low.

Negotiation Developments

U.S.-Iran talks begin Friday in Pakistan. Key sticking points include Iran's uranium enrichment (Trump stated "no enrichment"), Israeli military operations in Lebanon, and Strait of Hormuz passage terms. Trump indicated flexibility on tariffs and sanctions, and surprisingly suggested a "joint venture" toll collection arrangement with Iran, potentially payable in bitcoin according to Financial Times reports.

Israel announced Thursday morning it would engage in talks with Lebanon, boosting broader Middle East peace hopes.