Oil Prices Jump As Iran Keeps Hormuz Closed Amid Fragile Ceasefire; S&P 500 Futures Slip

• WTI crude jumped 5.2% to $99.34 per barrel, up from below $70 before the Feb. 28 conflict start, with futures showing prices remaining above $80 through September
• Iran is leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Israel, while Trump indicated the U.S. may accept a joint toll-collection arrangement with Iran, calling it 'a beautiful thing'
• S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after Wednesday's 2.5% rally, with the index now 2.8% below its January all-time high and up 6.9% from its March 30 conflict low

Market Summary: Oil Prices Surge as Iran Maintains Hormuz Closure

Key Developments

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices jumped 5.2% to $99.34 per barrel Thursday morning, nearly reaching $100 after trading as high as $99.99. This follows volatile trading that saw prices plunge to $91.05 on Wednesday after peaking at $117 on Tuesday. Oil had traded below $70 before the conflict began on February 28 and was up 17% year-to-date prior to hostilities.

Critical Issue

Iran announced Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz—a vital oil transit chokepoint—will remain closed to most traffic until Israel ceases attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Iran claims violate the fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. This move demonstrates Iran's leverage in ongoing negotiations with the U.S.

Negotiation Sticking Points

Major dividing lines include:

• Iran demanding U.S. control over Israeli defense decisions
• Uranium enrichment: Trump stated "There will be no enrichment of Uranium"
• Transit tolls: Trump surprisingly showed openness to collecting Strait tolls with Iran "as a joint venture," calling it "a beautiful thing"
• Payment method: Reports suggest Iran may demand bitcoin payments

Trump signaled flexibility on "Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran."

Market Impact

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% Thursday after Wednesday's 2.5% relief rally, extending the winning streak to six sessions. The index remains 2.8% below its January 27 all-time high but up 6.9% from its March 30 conflict low.

The United States Oil Fund ETF rose 2.3% after dropping 9.8% Wednesday. Futures markets show oil prices remaining above $80 through September contracts.