General Market News

Swiss sportswear brand On missed second-quarter sales estimates, reporting 850.3 million Swiss francs versus the expected 878.16 million francs, as the company faced pressure from weaker consumer spending and higher U.S. tariff costs. Despite the sales miss, On raised its full-year gross profit margin outlook to at least 65%, prioritizing profitability over volume.

• Sales growth in the Americas market, which represents over half of On's revenue, slowed to 13% from 17% in the prior quarter on a currency-adjusted basis
• The company widened its full-year net sales outlook range to 3.47-3.56 billion Swiss francs from a previous target of about 3.51 billion francs
• On posted strong growth in Asia-Pacific with sales rising 54.7% on a constant-currency basis, offsetting weakness in core markets

Ukraine's military announced it struck the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orsk, Russia's second-largest city in the Orenburg region. The attack targeted a strategically important facility with an annual crude oil processing capacity of 6 million tons that produces gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and other petroleum products. The military confirmed a fire at the site while damage assessments are ongoing.

• The Orsknefteorgsintez refinery has an annual crude oil capacity of 6 million tons and is located in a major industrial hub
• Ukrainian forces confirmed fire was recorded at the facility, though full extent of damages is still being assessed
• The targeted refinery produces critical fuel products including gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, fuel oil, and bitumen

China's domestic car sales fell 21.1% in July to 1.47 million vehicles, marking the 10th consecutive monthly decline, as weak household spending weighs on the economy. However, exports surged 88.2% to 923,000 units as automakers aggressively expand overseas to escape intense domestic competition.

• Domestic sales dropped 21.1% year-over-year to 1.47 million vehicles in July, the 10th straight monthly decline
• Exports jumped 88.2% to 923,000 units as manufacturers shift focus to overseas markets
• The trend reflects broader economic challenges in China, including sluggish household spending and cut-throat domestic competition

French day-ahead power prices surged 20.5% to €141 per megawatt hour on Tuesday as a heatwave reduced nuclear power supply while simultaneously increasing cooling demand. Temperatures are forecast at 28.8°C for Wednesday, 7.4°C above normal, prompting further expected curtailments of nuclear generation and pushing consumption up 1.6 gigawatts to 46.4 GW.

• Day-ahead power prices jumped to €141 ($162.67) per megawatt hour, a 20.5% increase from the previous day
• French nuclear power faces additional curtailments on Wednesday as high temperatures reduce cooling capacity for reactors
• Electricity consumption is expected to rise 1.6 gigawatts to 46.4 GW with temperatures reaching 28.8°C, which is 7.4°C above seasonal norms

Oil prices rose to one-week highs on Tuesday as prospects for a U.S.-Iran peace deal weakened following President Trump's demand for compensation from Iran. WTI crude approached $82 and Brent exceeded $90.50, both gaining over 5% on Monday. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, where exports dropped from 4.4 million bpd to 3 million bpd week-over-week, are supporting prices alongside delayed refinery restarts.

• Exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply to 3 million barrels per day for the week ending August 7, down from 4.4 million bpd the previous week
• Technical analysis suggests WTI could target $92-$100 levels, with immediate resistance at $87, while Brent faces key resistance at $92 before potentially moving toward $100
• Saudi Aramco postponed the restart of its 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery, adding to supply tightness, though any progress on peace negotiations could quickly reverse price gains

JPMorgan Chase will maintain its aggressive hiring pace in Asia Pacific through 2027 after its corporate banking revenue in the region grew by well above 20% this year. The bank is completing a 15% staff increase in 2026 following a 20% expansion in 2025, driven by Asian companies expanding abroad and surging investment in AI, data centers, and supply chains.

• Corporate banking revenue grew 'well above 20%' year-to-date across Asia Pacific, with Taiwan, South Korea, China, and Australia exceeding those growth rates
• Malaysia and Singapore are key beneficiaries, with strong demand for data center and GPU financing tied to AI infrastructure investment
• JPMorgan is increasing capital allocation to trade finance and working capital finance as intra-Asia trade expands

Australian shipbuilder Austal Ltd announced it received a $1.05-1.20 billion offer from Hanwha Defence USA, a unit of South Korea's Hanwha Group, to acquire its U.S. operations. The deal comes as Austal's U.S. business faces significant financial challenges, with expected operating losses of A$175 million for the fiscal year ending June 30.

• Hanwha Defence USA has offered an indicative enterprise value of $1.05 billion to $1.20 billion for Austal's U.S. entities and operations
• Austal granted Hanwha Group a four-week period to conduct due diligence on the potential acquisition
• Austal's U.S. operations are projected to post an operating loss of A$175 million in FY2024, driven by higher expected losses on multiple shipbuilding programs

President Donald Trump confirmed he spoke with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh 'one time, briefly, a few days ago,' denying an earlier report that the two had spoken repeatedly since Warsh became chairman in May 2025. The controversy highlights ongoing concerns about Fed independence as Trump continues to break with presidential precedent by publicly weighing in on interest rate policy.

• Trump contradicted a news report claiming regular contact with Warsh, stating they spoke only once recently, though timing relative to Trump's effort to oust a Fed Board member remains unclear
• Warsh has stated he welcomes input from the president or others on rates but will make independent decisions; Trump acknowledged 'if it was up to him, it would be different, but he's got a board'
• Direct president-Fed chair meetings have been rare in recent years; Trump had only one scheduled meeting with former Chair Jerome Powell since returning to the presidency in 2025, reflecting historical norms designed to preserve Fed independence

Wall Street closed slightly lower on Monday as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reopening pushed oil prices 5% higher and Intel announced a $15 billion stock offering. The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.06%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.32% as investors awaited key inflation data due later this week.

• WTI crude jumped 5% to $82.16 per barrel and Brent rose 5% to $87.74 amid continued Strait of Hormuz disruption, as Iran maintains conditions must be met before reopening the critical shipping route
• Intel shares led chip stocks lower after announcing a $15 billion common stock offering, raising dilution concerns among investors despite plans to fund AI infrastructure expansion
• Probability of a September Fed rate hike dropped to 52% from 67% following last week's disappointing jobs report showing 23,000 job losses, while 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations this season

The Trump administration extended its Jones Act waiver for another 90 days through mid-November but narrowed its scope to apply only to vessels hauling specific energy resources. The waiver aims to maintain fuel supplies amid disruptions from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which has reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic to a trickle and depleted U.S. petroleum reserves to multi-decade lows. The extension comes ahead of midterm elections as inflation concerns persist.

• Since the initial March 17 waiver, 210 voyages carrying nearly 55 million barrels of cargo (primarily gasoline and crude oil) have been completed that would have been unlawful under the 1920 Jones Act
• The narrowed waiver now requires Pentagon consultation with the U.S. Maritime Administration for each individual shipping voyage, addressing concerns from the domestic maritime industry
• U.S. petroleum reserves have fallen to their lowest levels in decades while oil prices resume climbing as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited

Oil prices surged approximately 6% after U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend, with Iran demanding reparations as a precondition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump rejected Iran's demands and vowed to seek compensation from Iran instead, while maintaining economic pressure through an effective naval blockade that has halted Iranian oil exports.

• WTI oil rallied toward resistance at $81.50-$82.00, with potential to reach $86.00-$86.50 if it breaks above $82.00
• Iran's demand for reparations and lifting of the naval blockade was rejected by Trump, who stated compensations were never discussed during negotiations
• The impasse suggests the Strait of Hormuz could remain blocked for weeks as both sides engage in a 'waiting game', expecting the other to concede first

Citadel Securities identifies five converging catalysts creating a compelling upside setup for precious metals, marking the firm's first call for structural exposure to gold in 2026. Head of Equity Strategy Scott Rubner highlights dovish Fed repricing, accelerating central bank purchases, net-short positioning, bullish options dynamics, and potential retail resurgence as key drivers for both gold and silver.

• CTA analysis shows both gold and silver were net short as of August 6, creating fuel for a potential covering rally as trend-following funds are positioned on the wrong side of the trade
• China's gold purchases have been accelerating monthly since December 2024, contributing to strengthening global official-sector demand alongside broader central bank buying
• Retail participation represents the 'largest unrecognized upside,' particularly in silver, as precious metals have been overlooked amid the AI trade dominance, with January-February rally demonstrating retail's potential impact

President Trump approved a 90-day extension of the Jones Act waiver with added limitations. The waiver allows foreign-flagged ships to transport cargo between U.S. ports, exempting them from the Jones Act's requirements that ships be U.S.-built, owned, and crewed. The extension aims to reduce gas prices by increasing shipping flexibility and easing transport bottlenecks.

• The Jones Act normally requires all cargo between U.S. ports to be carried on American-built ships owned by U.S. companies with American crews
• The waiver extension is for 90 days but includes narrowed scope with unspecified limitations compared to the previous waiver
• The policy change targets lower gas prices by reducing transportation bottlenecks and increasing shipping capacity flexibility

U.S. stock markets showed minimal movement on Monday, with the S&P 500 holding near Friday's record high while the Dow and Nasdaq slipped slightly. Oil prices surged over 5% to $86 per barrel after stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz reopened geopolitical concerns. The muted trading comes as second-quarter earnings season nears completion with analysts expecting roughly 50% profit growth, the strongest since 2021.

• Brent crude oil swung from $113 in spring to near $80 last week and back to $86 today following stalled Iran negotiations and a Houthi attack on a Red Sea port
• Tech stocks showed mixed results: Microsoft (+2.1%) and Amazon (+2%) led gains while Nvidia and Apple each fell 2%, together shedding nearly $192 billion in market value
• Wednesday's CPI report is the next key catalyst, with forecasters expecting 3.4% headline inflation versus 3.5% in June

Prediction markets on Kalshi suggest July's Consumer Price Index will come in below Wall Street economist forecasts ahead of Wednesday's crucial inflation report. Kalshi traders see less than 55% odds that headline CPI exceeds 3.3% year-over-year, while the Dow Jones consensus estimate is 3.4%. The data will be key for Federal Reserve policymakers as they consider interest rate decisions at their September meeting.

• Kalshi traders give only 15% odds that July CPI comes in above 3.4%, suggesting expectations for inflation at or below 3.3% compared to June's 3.5% reading
• For core inflation (excluding food and energy), prediction markets show 47% probability of exceeding 2.4% and just 11% chance of topping 2.5%, below the 2.5% Dow Jones consensus
• June CPI posted the largest monthly decline in over six years at -0.4%, driven by a temporary drop in energy prices and beating economist expectations

Goldman Sachs' co-head of global banking and markets, Ashok Varadhan, advises investors to remain in the market despite recent concerns about interest rates, oil prices, and economic durability. He cites three positive factors: expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year, the potential for AI to drive productivity gains and disinflation, and anticipated oil price declines to below $70 per barrel by late 2026.

• Varadhan does not expect Fed rate hikes in 2026, contrary to market pricing that had reflected some tightening risk, with trader bets on a September hike falling to around 50% following recent data
• AI is expected to become a disinflationary force as productivity benefits materialize once infrastructure buildout is complete, offsetting near-term inflationary pressures from resource strain
• Oil prices are projected to fall well below $70 per barrel by late 2026, though crude climbed back above $80 on Monday amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations regarding Strait of Hormuz shipping

Global commodities traders and financial firms including Trafigura, StoneX, and Macquarie are expanding into Brazil's electricity trading market, capitalizing on rising price volatility and growth opportunities. The expansion comes as several small and mid-sized Brazilian power traders face financial difficulties, creating openings for well-capitalized international players to gain market share.

• StoneX has established its first global electricity trading desk in Brazil, offering risk-management services to energy companies while awaiting clarity before launching full trading operations
• Macquarie and Trafigura are pushing into the market, with Trafigura citing Brazil's hydroelectric-heavy generation mix as complementary to its U.S. and European energy portfolios
• The sector is undergoing consolidation following insolvencies among local traders, with regulators evaluating stronger market security measures including collateral requirements and exchange-traded electricity markets

The U.S. Senate delayed a vote on major crypto legislation (the Clarity Act) until September, significantly reducing its chances of passage before year-end. The bill faces opposition over weak anti-money laundering rules and ethics provisions, and lawmakers have limited time before November elections dominate their agenda. A September 15 procedural vote will test whether supporters can reach the required 60-vote threshold.

• Senate returns September 14 with only 14 session days before October recess and 22 days total before year-end, leaving minimal time to resolve disputes over ethics rules and state enforcement powers
• Key sticking points include provisions that would ban government officials (including Trump, who reported crypto income) from operating crypto businesses, with Democrats demanding stronger state attorney general enforcement authority
• Banking industry opposes provisions allowing crypto exchanges to pay rewards on stablecoin holdings, arguing it would cause deposit flight from community banks

U.S. markets face a critical week with July CPI data due Wednesday, followed by PPI Thursday and retail sales Friday. The inflation readings are crucial as the Fed weighs policy moves after July's weak jobs report showed payrolls falling by 23,000. Economists expect headline CPI to ease to 3.4% annually and core inflation to moderate to 2.5%, but both remain above the Fed's 2% target.

• July payrolls declined by 23,000 with sharp downward revisions to prior months, though unemployment dipped to 4.1%, presenting a mixed signal for Fed policy decisions
• Deutsche Bank forecasts July headline CPI to rise 0.15% month-over-month aided by lower gasoline prices, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.26%
• Major earnings reports include Applied Materials Thursday, with focus on semiconductor equipment demand and AI-related spending, plus 13F filings revealing institutional portfolio positioning

U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs experienced over $850 million in inflows last week, the highest level since April, following a crypto hack that drained $130 million from Coldcard hardware wallets manufactured by Coinkite. Analysts suggest investors may be shifting to regulated ETFs for greater security after the breach exposed vulnerabilities in cold wallet firmware, though ETFs are not entirely risk-free.

• The Coldcard hack involved a firmware flaw that allowed attackers to predict security information and steal crypto without physically accessing the offline hardware wallets, previously considered one of the safest storage methods
• Bitcoin ETFs drew more than $850 million in inflows last week, representing the strongest demand since April as investors seek regulated alternatives to self-custody
• Experts note that while ETFs offer regulatory oversight and law enforcement protections, they still carry custodian breach risks and cannot guarantee against all losses