General Market News

Shares of business development companies (BDCs), which are publicly traded private credit lenders, are trading at their steepest discounts in over five years. The median price-to-net asset value ratio hit roughly 0.74 in March 2025, implying a 26% discount, the widest since October 2020. Investor concerns center on whether reported valuations accurately reflect credit market strains and exposures to vulnerable sectors like software.

• BDCs use fair-value estimates and internal models to value portfolios, raising skepticism that net asset values may overstate true holdings as these methods can lag shifts in credit conditions
• Redemption pressures are mounting, with some non-traded BDCs like Barings Private Credit Corp. reporting oversubscribed tender offers, highlighting liquidity constraints in the private credit market
• BDCs with material software sector exposure have faced increased scrutiny amid concerns about potential disruption from artificial intelligence

US stock indices rallied on Wednesday after President Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran following requests from Pakistani mediators, despite ongoing regional tensions. The Dow Jones rose 417 points (0.85%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.67% and 0.72% respectively. Strong corporate earnings and AI optimism provided additional support, though oil near $100 per barrel and unresolved Iran negotiations pose continued risks.

• Trump extended the Iran ceasefire citing 'seriously fractured' Iranian leadership, but tensions remain with Iran seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US naval blockade still in place
• S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026-27 have risen, with strong reports from Boeing (smaller loss than expected) and Adobe (announced $25 billion AI partnership with AWS)
• Oil prices near $100 per barrel raise inflation concerns that could complicate Federal Reserve policy, while crypto-linked stocks surged on improved risk appetite (Coinbase +4.65%, Strategy +7.4%)

Swedish central bank Governor Erik Thedeen warned on April 22 that inflation risks have increased beyond the Riksbank's recent expectations due to the Middle East conflict. He cited supply disruptions from the war, particularly concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, as driving higher energy prices and inflationary pressures that could persist even if tensions ease.

• Thedeen stated that even if an agreement on opening the Strait of Hormuz materializes soon, inflationary pressures and high energy prices will not quickly subside
• The Riksbank may need to take action if inflation risks deviating permanently from its 2% target
• The Middle East war is causing negative supply disruptions to the global economy, increasing inflation concerns for Sweden's monetary policy

The European Union is considering requiring member countries to hold and potentially redistribute jet fuel stockpiles amid supply concerns stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen stated the bloc may introduce redistribution tools if the supply crisis worsens, moving beyond normal market mechanisms. European airlines including TUI and easyJet have already issued profit warnings due to war-related supply uncertainties.

• The EU currently requires countries to hold 90 days' worth of oil and oil products in reserve, but jet fuel stockpiles are not specifically mandated
• The International Energy Agency forecasts jet fuel shortages by June if Europe can only replace half of the supplies normally received from the Middle East
• The European Commission proposed EU-wide monitoring of refinery output to maximize capacity, with hopes to increase European jet fuel production

Stock futures rose after two days of losses as President Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, though uncertainty remains after Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Major earnings reports from Tesla, Boeing, GE Vernova, and AT&T are driving investor attention, while SpaceX announced a major partnership with AI startup Cursor worth up to $60 billion.

• Dow and S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, Nasdaq futures up 0.7%; WTI crude rose 1% to $90.50/barrel and bitcoin hit $78,300, its highest level in over two months
• Tesla reports earnings after market close as investors assess its pivot from EV sales to robotaxis, humanoid robots, and semiconductor manufacturing
• SpaceX secured rights to either pay Cursor $10 billion or acquire the AI coding startup for $60 billion, more than double its $29 billion November valuation

The S&P 500 Index recently hit an all-time high after its Relative Strength Index (RSI) swung from oversold (below 30) to overbought (above 70) in less than a month. Historical analysis since 1950 shows this rapid momentum shift has occurred only 13 times and has been strongly bullish, with the SPX averaging 2.32% gains in the following month with 92% positive returns.

• The RSI crossing above 70 after being below 30 within a month has historically produced average one-month SPX returns of 2.32% with 92% positive outcomes across 13 occurrences since 1950
• When RSI crosses 70 while SPX is at all-time highs (current situation), historical returns show slight underperformance at 0.35% average vs. typical 0.75%
• The rapid shift from oversold to overbought conditions signals strong momentum that has historically tended to continue across multiple timeframes from two weeks to one year

US stock futures rose on Wednesday after President Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, though Gulf tensions remained high with Iran seizing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5% while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.7%, following a 0.6% decline across major indices in the previous session. Oil prices remained elevated at $90.50 per barrel amid ongoing blockades and regional instability.

• Trump extended the ceasefire after being asked by Pakistani mediators, citing Iran's 'seriously fractured' government, while both nations maintain blockades including Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized two vessels and reportedly attacked a third in the Strait, while WTI crude oil swung between $88-$92 per barrel over 24 hours
• Major earnings reports expected after the close include Tesla, Lam Research, IBM, and Texas Instruments, with pre-market reports from Boeing, AT&T, Philip Morris International, and others

The Iran ceasefire has been extended amid confusion over who controls Iran's government, with President Trump confirming the country is 'seriously fractured' between multiple factions. The conflict has cut Iranian oil exports to near zero, creating a global supply shortfall of 13-16 million barrels per day. Despite ongoing uncertainty, Goldman Sachs recommends investors focus on long-term energy plays in oil production, natural gas, and power infrastructure.

• Iranian oil exports have collapsed to near zero since the blockade began, worsening a pre-existing 14 million barrel per day supply deficit to as much as 16 million barrels per day
• Goldman Sachs recommends buying ConocoPhillips (21% estimated return), EQT (natural gas producer with $68 target), plus power infrastructure stocks Vistra and Quanta Services
• U.S. natural gas demand is expected to increase 30-40% driven by data centers and AI, with production already doubled over the past 25 years to over 1 trillion cubic feet annually

Mortgage rates fell for the third consecutive week to 6.35% for 30-year fixed-rate loans, driving a surge in home buyer demand. Total mortgage application volume rose 7.9% for the week, with purchase applications up 10% and refinance applications up 6%, as the spring housing market shows renewed strength following a positive market response to Middle East ceasefire developments and lower oil prices.

• Purchase mortgage applications jumped 10% for the week and are now 14% higher than the same week one year ago, reversing a brief dip below year-ago levels
• Refinance demand rose 6% weekly and is 52% higher year-over-year, as current rates are 55 basis points lower than last year's 30-year fixed rate
• Housing demand is being supported by a resilient job market and higher inventory levels compared to last year, creating buyer's market conditions in most of the country despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

President Trump extended the Iran war ceasefire beyond Wednesday's deadline, but Iran has not agreed and continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, keeping crude oil prices elevated near $100/barrel for Brent. Despite geopolitical tensions, global stock markets remain optimistic about eventual de-escalation, while focus shifts to Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's testimony and tech earnings including Tesla and Intel.

• Brent crude traded near $100/barrel and WTI at $91/barrel as Iran maintains its Strait of Hormuz closure despite the ceasefire extension, with cargo ships reportedly turned away
• Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh testified he was not pressured by Trump for rate cuts and focused on 'regime change' in Fed policy framework; markets see less than 50% chance of rate cuts resuming this year
• Tech stocks continue rallying with SK Hynix breaking into top 10 most valuable companies globally, while Intel reports Thursday after gaining 50% in April amid AI chip partnerships with Google and Elon Musk's Terafab project

US stock futures surged Wednesday morning after President Trump announced an indefinite postponement of any attack on Iran, easing geopolitical tensions. Dow futures climbed 214 points while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, with investors also focused on earnings from Boeing, Tesla, and other major companies.

• Trump's decision to pause Iran escalation revived risk appetite, though analysts warn the Middle East situation remains fragile with ongoing tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged potential near-term economic slowdown from geopolitical tensions but emphasized the economy's resilience and expected recovery
• Key earnings reports from Boeing, Tesla, Texas Instruments, and Southwest Airlines are in focus, while stock-specific movers include Adobe (up 2.8% on buyback news), Coinbase (up 4% on crypto momentum), and Disney (up 2.2% on streaming profitability outlook)

Donald Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, faces significant obstacles in securing support for lower interest rates despite the president's wishes. While Warsh argues that AI-driven productivity gains justify rate cuts—echoing Alan Greenspan's 1990s reasoning about IT—most of the 12-member Federal Open Markets Committee members are not Trump appointees and remain unconvinced. Trump's own policies, including tariffs, deportations, and a 6% budget deficit, are creating inflationary pressures that contradict Warsh's case for lower rates.

• Warsh's AI productivity argument lacks current evidence, as productivity gains have not yet materialized while AI investments are driving up demand and prices for electricity, chips, and fueling stock market growth
• Trump controls only 3-4 potential votes on the 12-member committee (including Warsh, Stephen Miran, and two other appointees), far short of the seven needed to set policy
• Current economic conditions differ sharply from the 1990s: Trump's tariffs and deportations are raising costs and shrinking labor supply, while the federal debt has doubled to over 100% of GDP compared to 54% under Clinton

Sweden's Handelsbanken reported first-quarter net profit of 6.36 billion Swedish crowns ($693 million), beating analyst expectations of 5.69 billion crowns. The 6% year-over-year profit increase was supported by good net inflow to the bank's funds during the quarter.

• Net profit rose 6% to 6.36 billion crowns ($693 million) from 5.97 billion crowns in the same quarter last year
• Results exceeded the mean analyst forecast of 5.69 billion crowns from LSEG estimates
• The bank reported good net inflow to its funds during Q1, competing against Swedish rivals Swedbank, SEB, and Nordea

U.S. power startup Fermi rejected a call from former CEO Toby Neugebauer for an immediate sale of the company. The company stated that such a sale would not be in its best interest, pushing back against the former executive's recommendation.

• Former CEO Toby Neugebauer called for an immediate sale of Fermi, a U.S. power startup
• The company's current leadership publicly rejected the proposal, stating a sale is 'not in the best interest' of the company
• The disagreement highlights potential tension between former leadership and current management over the company's strategic direction

Trump Media & Technology Group appointed Kevin McGurn as interim CEO, effective immediately, replacing Devin Nunes. McGurn, an advisor to the company since December 2024, brings over 20 years of media and technology leadership experience. The change comes as Trump Media faces challenges scaling its Truth Social platform amid competition and uneven user growth.

• Devin Nunes, who left Congress in 2022 to lead Trump Media, oversaw a $6 billion all-stock deal for Google-backed TAE Technologies, adding fusion power to the company's ventures
• Trump Media continues to struggle with scaling its business against larger social networks despite President Trump using Truth Social for major announcements including his 2024 campaign and military strikes
• McGurn has been advising Trump Media since December 2024 and was described by Donald Trump Jr. as having a 'strong understanding' of the company's operations and strategic priorities

Global assets linked to the ROBO index have doubled to $1.7 billion over the past 12 months as investors shift focus from digital AI to physical AI applications in manufacturing, aerospace, and defense. The index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 30% and Nasdaq-100 by 20% year-over-year, driven by its score-weighted methodology that limits concentration risk.

• The ROBO index delivered over 55% growth since Q1 2025, with top contributors including Celestica (+403%), Teradyne (+361%), and Symbotic (+212.5%), each adding 2-4% to overall returns.
• Assets in London-listed ROBO-LON nearly doubled from $650 million to $1.1 billion, while U.S.-listed ETFs attracted over $300 million in inflows as advisors seek diversification from Magnificent Seven tech stocks.
• The index uses a proprietary score-weighted methodology that caps individual company weightings at approximately 2%, evaluating firms on thematic revenue purity and technical leadership rather than market capitalization.

Crude oil rebounded from key support near the 50-day moving average at $85.85, reaching $94.43 before encountering resistance near the 10-day moving average. The counter-trend bounce faces a critical test at the 20-day moving average around $97.86, with broader bearish structure suggesting risk of renewed declines if recovery momentum stalls.

• Oil tested support near the 50-day moving average at $85.85 after breaking below the 20-day average on April 8, with last week's low at $81.94 marking a key reversal zone
• Near-term recovery targets the 20-day moving average at $97.86 and the 50% retracement level at $98.73, but failure to reclaim these levels could trigger another downleg
• If downside resumes, the 100-day moving average at $72.78 becomes the next significant support target, potentially bringing oil back near its long-term breakout zone

Gold (XAU/USD) has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, falling to test support at $4,697 near the 20-day moving average. The technical breakdown signals a shift from bullish momentum to emerging weakness, with analysts warning of potential deeper corrections toward the $4,284-$4,231 support zone if key levels fail to hold.

• Bearish confirmation would occur on a sustained break below the 20-day moving average at $4,693 and swing low at $4,640, signaling failure of both 100-day and 20-day moving average support
• Downside targets project to $4,284-$4,231 (channel midline zone) with interim support expected around $4,351, a level that has acted as support and resistance over the past six months
• Gold's recent high of $4,890 on Friday appears to have completed a retest of the 50-day moving average as resistance, suggesting the larger bearish correction may be positioned to resume

Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh testified before the Senate, denying that President Trump pressured him to commit to interest rate cuts. The 56-year-old former Fed governor faces a contentious confirmation process, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren calling him a 'sock puppet' and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis vowing to block his approval until the DOJ ends its probe into current Chair Jerome Powell.

• Warsh criticized the Fed's 2020 inflation framework change and its focus on climate change and racial inequity, saying the central bank needs to 'stick to its lane'
• Sen. Tillis's opposition could create a 12-12 deadlock in committee, potentially delaying confirmation until May 11, as the Senate is out the week of May 4
• Warsh's economic theory centers on AI creating a productivity boom that would allow rate cuts, though economists warn AI spending could actually increase short-term inflation

US stocks fell on Tuesday, with the Dow dropping 293 points (0.59%), as geopolitical uncertainty over stalled US-Iran peace talks and concerns about Federal Reserve independence overshadowed strong earnings and retail sales data. Oil prices reversed recent declines, with WTI crude rising 2.81% to $92.13 and Brent up 3.14% to $98.48.

• VP JD Vance's Pakistan trip was postponed due to lack of commitment from Tehran on peace deal, despite Trump's optimistic tone about reaching a 'great deal' while keeping military options open
• US retail sales surged 1.7% in March (largest increase since March 2025), and Q1 earnings showed double-digit growth expectations, with UnitedHealth and Amazon announcing major AI investments
• Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation hearing highlighted independence concerns, with Senator Thom Tillis blocking confirmation pending DOJ investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell, while rising Treasury yields reflected scaled-back rate cut expectations