General Market News

Investor's Business Daily published its list of the 100 best stocks for 2025, led by Sandisk (up 595%), Nutex Health (up 431%), and tech companies like Palantir, Micron, and Robinhood, with many stocks near all-time highs as the S&P 500 heads for its third consecutive double-digit yearly gain.

• Tech and gold mining sectors dominate the list, featuring data storage companies (Sandisk, Western Digital, Micron), AI/software firms (Palantir, AppLovin), and precious metals miners (Alamos Gold, Agnico Eagle, Barrick)
• Selection criteria include companies with 100,000+ average daily trading volume and strong fundamentals based on IBD's proprietary ratings for earnings, relative strength, and other metrics
• Top performers show extraordinary gains: Sandisk (+594.7%), Nutex Health (+430.5%), and Lumentum (+371.6%), with 31 of the 100 companies posting gains exceeding 100% for 2025

The Federal Reserve delivered an anticipated rate cut in December but signaled that aggressive monetary easing is ending, with policy now near neutral after 175 basis points of cuts since September 2024. Major global central banks are similarly positioned, with some signaling potential future hikes rather than cuts, while long-end Treasury yields have risen 35 basis points to 4.86% reflecting confidence in sustained economic growth.

• Fed projects 2.3% growth for next year with policy rates now 'within a broad range of estimates of neutral' - marking a shift from previous guidance
• 30-year Treasury yields at 4.86% signal market confidence in continued expansion supported by fiscal stimulus and global deficit spending
• Inflation progress noted with tariff-excluded inflation already in low 2% range, though goods inflation expected to peak in early 2026 from import levies

European stocks closed mixed on Monday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 hitting an intraday record of 589.61 points before ending nearly flat at 589.35. Defense stocks declined amid peace talks between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding Ukraine, while precious metals and oil prices saw significant movement as traders assessed the implications of a potential conflict resolution.

• Defense stocks underperformed with the aerospace and defense index down 1.53%, despite analysts predicting continued European defense investment acceleration regardless of peace outcomes
• Gold surged above $80 an ounce for the first time before retreating to $71.55, while oil prices jumped over 2% with Brent at $61.89 and WTI at $58.04
• Trump and Zelenskyy reported progress on peace talks with agreement on '90-95%' of a 20-point plan, though major differences remain on territorial concessions and security guarantees

Wall Street ended Monday in the red during a subdued post-holiday session, with the Nasdaq leading declines as tech stocks including Nvidia and Tesla fell over 1%. The pullback comes after stocks closed near record highs last week, with the S&P 500 still up more than 17% for the volatile 2025 year.

• The Dow Jones fell 249 points (0.5%) to 48,462, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dropped around 0.4-0.5%, though markets remain on track for strong yearly gains
• Precious metals experienced extreme volatility with silver plunging 7% after hitting record highs above $84, while gold futures fell more than 3% amid profit-taking
• November pending home sales jumped by the most since early 2023, providing an encouraging sign for housing demand ahead of Tuesday's Fed meeting minutes

Mish's Fire Horse 2026 market outlook predicts bullish conditions from January to July 2026, followed by choppier but still constructive markets into 2027. The analysis identifies shipping, transportation, telecom, media, and banking as top beneficiary sectors while expecting agriculture and traditional construction to lag. The outlook emphasizes a 'Yang Fire Horse' market personality characterized by confidence, volatility, and rapid sector rotation.

• Key winning sectors include SMH/IBB/Crypto as leaders with IWM improving, while XRT and KRE are expected to struggle in the 'Modern Family' positioning framework
• The meta megatrend theme focuses on 'Infrastructure for a New World' including AI build-out, energy grid development, supply chains, and biotech/longevity investments
• 2025 review showed emerging markets, metals, semiconductors, and AI leading performance while Bitcoin, retail, transports, and regional banks lagged

US corporate bankruptcies reached 717 in 2025, a 14% increase from last year and the highest since 2010, driven by inflation, high interest rates, and tariffs. Industrial companies have been hit hardest, while consumer-facing retailers also struggled as Americans cut discretionary spending. Major companies including Rite Aid, 23andMe, and Spirit Airlines were among those seeking bankruptcy protection.

• Industrial sector leads bankruptcy filings with manufacturers and construction firms squeezed by tariffs on steel, components and energy equipment - solar panel tariffs jumped to 20% from less than 5%
• Mega bankruptcies (companies with over $1B in assets) spiked to highest levels since 2020, including At Home and Forever 21
• Transportation and renewable energy sectors particularly vulnerable - Nikola faced $125M SEC penalty while solar companies struggled with $70M monthly in duties

The December Federal Reserve meeting revealed deeper divisions than publicly acknowledged, with six Fed members opposing the rate cut according to dot-plot projections, though only two formally dissented. Four 'silent dissenters' who couldn't vote signaled opposition through their projections, and these divisions will likely intensify in 2026 when regional presidents rotating into voting positions have already expressed caution about further cuts.

• Six Fed members (one-third of FOMC attendees) projected no rate cut in their dot plots, but only two could formally dissent as voting members
• All four regional Fed presidents rotating into voting roles in 2026 (Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas, Minneapolis) have publicly stated opposition to additional cuts
• Powell's term ends May 2026, with his last FOMC meeting likely April 29, adding leadership uncertainty to an already divided committee

The Netherlands' 2-trillion-euro pension system begins transitioning from guaranteed benefits to market-dependent returns starting January 1, with the first major group of funds worth over 500 billion euros shifting to the new model. This historic reform allows funds to invest in riskier assets while reducing their holdings of government bonds and interest rate swaps, potentially affecting European debt markets. The transition runs until 2028 and marks the end of one of the last major defined benefit pension systems in the private sector.

• Pension funds will reduce government bond and swap holdings by 100-150 billion euros in 25+ year maturities, adding pressure to long-dated European bonds at a time when governments face record funding needs
• The new system allows funds to hold riskier assets like corporate debt and mortgages, with different risk levels for younger versus older workers, while eliminating guaranteed retirement income promises
• Market volatility possible during the transition period due to low year-end liquidity, with some funds already postponing transitions due to complexity

SpaceX is reportedly planning to go public in 2026 at a potential $1.5 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest IPO ever. The company generates revenue from rocket launches, NASA contracts, and its Starlink satellite internet service, with Starlink accounting for about 70% of its revenue.

• SpaceX revenue has grown from $1.4 billion in 2020 to an estimated $15.5 billion in 2025, with projections of $22-23 billion by 2026
• The IPO would value SpaceX at approximately 65x forward sales, with the company's reusable Starship rocket technology potentially reducing payload costs from $1,500 to under $100 per kilogram
• Motley Fool analysts expressed skepticism about buying at IPO due to the extreme valuation, suggesting waiting for a better entry point after initial trading

Major tax changes are set to take effect in 2026 through Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' which makes permanent the 2017 tax cuts and introduces new breaks for individuals and businesses. The legislation includes expanded deductions for state and local taxes, exemptions for tipped and overtime income, and enhanced business investment incentives, with economists viewing these changes as a principal driver of economic growth.

• Individual tax breaks include exemptions on up to $25,000 in tipped income and $12,500 in overtime pay, a $40,000 SALT deduction cap (up from $10,000), and new deductions for seniors and auto loan interest
• Business provisions allow full expensing of equipment purchases and R&D costs, expanded interest deductions, and increased pass-through business deductions up to 20% of income
• The changes will boost household income through larger tax refunds and reduced paycheck withholding starting in early 2026, though some benefits phase out for earners above $150,000

US stocks retreated on Monday as traders locked in strong 2025 gains ahead of year-end, with the Dow down 0.55%, S&P 500 down 0.47%, and Nasdaq down 0.65%. Markets are experiencing light volume as investors await Tuesday's Fed minutes for insights on future rate cuts amid the inflation versus employment debate. Despite Monday's declines, major indices maintain robust double-digit gains for 2025, with the Nasdaq leading at 21%.

• The S&P 500 is up 17% for 2025, the Dow gained 14%, and the Nasdaq posted a 21% rally, with markets currently in a 'Santa Claus rally' period that historically averages 1% gains
• Tuesday's Fed minutes release will reveal dissenting views on the December rate cut and the central bank's stance on balancing inflation control against labor market support
• General Motors surged 55% to record highs outperforming all major automakers, while UnitedHealth is set to be the worst Dow performer with a 35% loss for 2025

President Trump attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during a press conference with Netanyahu, calling him a 'fool' and threatening to fire him or file a gross incompetence lawsuit. Trump falsely claimed the Fed headquarters renovation costs $4.1 billion (actual cost is $2.5 billion) while defending his own White House ballroom project that doubled from $200 million to $400 million.

• Trump contradicted himself by criticizing Biden for reappointing Powell, whom Trump originally appointed in 2018
• The president plans to announce Powell's successor in January 2025 when the current Fed chair's term expires
• Trump's White House ballroom cost doubled due to security features including bullet-proof glass and drone-resistant roofing