General Market News

The Hindenburg Omen, a rare stock market crash indicator, has been triggered 13 times in the past three months on the S&P 500, signaling potential internal weakness despite the index trading near record highs. This concentration of signals has only occurred twice before in history, both times preceding significant market declines. The indicator identifies periods when stocks simultaneously make new 52-week highs and lows, suggesting fragmentation beneath the market surface.

• Previous instances of 13 triggers within three months occurred in January 1980 (followed by 13.4% decline) and September 2018 (followed by 13.1% maximum drawdown)
• The warning comes as market concentration remains elevated, with technology and communication services dominating gains while the S&P 500 continues setting new highs in 2026
• The indicator has a history of false positives and does not guarantee a correction, with many warnings appearing during bull markets that continued higher

Despite U.S. stock indexes reaching all-time highs and low volatility readings, options markets reveal unusual positioning as traders maintain bullish bets while also holding elevated levels of crash protection. The summer saw extreme swings including a 25% semiconductor pullback and record spreads between S&P and Nasdaq volatility, prompting investors to adopt a 'trust but hedge' strategy through deep out-of-the-money puts.

• S&P call-to-put ratios are at their most bullish levels in at least a year across all expiration timeframes, with the ratio of 25-delta puts to calls at the lowest since mid-2024 following a post-earnings rally squeeze
• Demand for deep out-of-the-money crash protection (10-delta puts) remains unusually high at the 66th percentile of the past five years, indicating investors are hedging against sharp downside moves despite bullish positioning
• Russell 2000 small-cap volatility dropped to a 2nd percentile low over five years despite a 20% year-to-date rally, with traders viewing small-caps as a relative 'volatility safe-haven' compared to large-cap indexes

US stock indexes rose on Wednesday after July CPI data met expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes in September. Technology stocks led gains, driven by strong earnings from AI infrastructure companies CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer, which reported robust demand for AI computing capacity.

• July CPI increased 0.1% monthly, matching forecasts, pushing Fed pause probability to 55-58% for September meeting according to CME FedWatch Tool
• CoreWeave surged 20% after revenue more than doubled year-over-year and raised annual capex forecast; Super Micro forecasted fiscal 2027 revenue above estimates
• AI infrastructure rally extended to related stocks: data center operators and Applied Digital gained over 5%, while Nvidia and other semiconductor names also traded higher

Inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, likely supporting Federal Reserve officials who favor keeping interest rates steady in the current 3.5%-3.75% range. However, core inflation remains at 2.5%, above the Fed's 2% target, while consumers face ongoing pressure as prices outpace 3.2% wage growth.

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy) decreased to 2.5% from 2.6%, but remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal
• Wage growth of 3.2% continues to lag behind overall inflation, putting financial pressure on consumers despite the cooling trend
• Geopolitical tensions with Iran pose risk of driving energy prices and inflation higher again, potentially influencing Fed rate decisions

Inflation cooled slightly in July 2026, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually, meeting economist expectations. Core inflation increased 0.2% monthly and 2.5% year-over-year, showing modest improvement from June. The data comes as the Federal Reserve weighs whether to raise interest rates next month amid persistently elevated price pressures.

• Monthly CPI increased 0.1% in July compared to a decline of 0.4% in June, while annual inflation of 3.4% was slightly cooler than June's 3.5%
• Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% monthly after being flat in June, with the annual rate improving to 2.5% from 2.6%
• The inflation data will factor into the Federal Reserve's decision on a potential interest rate hike next month as price growth remains above target levels

US inflation cooled to 3.4% in July 2026, down from a May peak of 4.2%, as energy prices declined from late April highs though gas remains nearly $1 per gallon above pre-war levels. The data follows a disappointing jobs report showing a loss of 23,000 positions in July, presenting mixed signals for the Federal Reserve as it considers monetary policy amid ongoing Middle East conflict affecting oil markets.

• Gas prices average $4 per gallon, up more than $0.85 from a year ago, with oil prices fluctuating due to collapsed US-Iran peace deal and closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which one-fifth of global oil passes
• US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July with May and June figures revised down by a combined 103,000, indicating weaker labor market than previously reported
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure from dissenting board members like Lorie Logan who advocate rate hikes, though Warsh has indicated rates would not be used 'in isolation' to address inflation still well above the 2% target

The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% in July, matching economist expectations and bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.4%. The report met Dow Jones consensus forecasts, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) expected at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually.

• Monthly CPI increased 0.1% in July, in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast
• Annual inflation rate reached 3.4%, matching expectations
• Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was projected at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually

Saudi Arabian crude oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu are increasingly operating without tracking signals ('going dark') to avoid attacks by Yemen's Houthi militants, who declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20. All recent Yanbu crude loadings have been conducted without AIS signals, creating significant discrepancies in export estimates used by international energy agencies and traders to assess global oil supply.

• Ship-tracking firms reported vastly different Yanbu export estimates for the week of August 3: Vortexa calculated 2.38 million bpd, Kpler estimated 1.78 million bpd, and AXSMarine showed just 640,000 bpd, reflecting the challenge of tracking dark voyages
• Approximately 70% of Saudi west coast loadings have been dark over recent weeks, with all Yanbu cargoes loaded since July 23 involving vessels without continuous AIS coverage
• Saudi Arabia has redirected more oil northward through the Red Sea to Egypt's SUMED pipeline, with crude loadings at Egypt's Sidi Kerir hitting a record 2.17 million bpd (90% Saudi crude), up 50% from the previous week

Goldman Sachs announced it will acquire NEOS Investments, an exchange-traded funds provider specializing in systematic options-based income strategies, for up to $2.25 billion. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027 and will bring $30 billion in assets under management to Goldman Sachs.

• The acquisition price is valued at up to $2.25 billion
• NEOS manages $30 billion in assets, focusing on systematic options-based income ETFs
• The transaction is scheduled to close in Q1 2027

Switzerland launched a public consultation on stricter banking regulations, including tougher bonus rules for banks like UBS, as part of reforms following Credit Suisse's 2023 collapse. The measures aim to discourage excessive risk-taking and promote long-term sustainable performance at systemically important lenders. The consultation runs until November 19, 2026.

• Banks must defer significant portions of variable compensation for top executives for 4-5 years, with provisions to reduce, cancel, or claw back bonuses in cases of misconduct or losses
• Financial regulator FINMA will gain expanded powers to intervene earlier when risks emerge, impose fines on institutions, and levy penalties for delays in implementing orders
• New requirements apply stricter standards to systemically important banks like UBS (Switzerland's only remaining global bank after absorbing Credit Suisse) and mandate clear assignment of responsibility for key decisions at banks with 250+ employees

US stock futures showed mixed movement as markets awaited July inflation data crucial for the Federal Reserve's September rate decision. Traders are evenly split on whether the Fed will raise rates, with CPI expected to show a 3.4% year-over-year increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including US forces firing on a vessel, have pushed Brent crude near $90 per barrel.

• Markets are pricing a roughly 50-50 chance of a Fed rate hike in September, an unusual split following a softer-than-expected July jobs report
• Consumer prices are expected to rise 3.4% year-over-year in July, down from 3.5% in June, with a 0.1% monthly increase
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid US-Iran tensions, with American forces firing on a Panama-flagged vessel, driving Brent crude close to $90 per barrel

US stock futures rose Wednesday ahead of the July CPI report, with Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.6% driven by strong AI infrastructure earnings from CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer. The inflation data, expected at 8:30 AM ET, could determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September, as markets remain evenly split on the decision.

• CoreWeave doubled revenue to $2.58 billion and raised 2026 capex guidance to $35-39 billion, with revenue backlog reaching $104 billion plus $25 billion in new Q3 commitments.
• Super Micro Computer forecast fiscal 2027 revenue of $65-72 billion with gross margin recovering sharply to 17.5% from 9.9%, easing profitability concerns in AI hardware.
• July CPI is expected to show headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year (down from 3.5%) and core CPI at 2.5%, with the reading likely to swing Fed rate-hike expectations for September.

The Trump administration is offering over 81 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas leasing, the third of 30 sales mandated by a 2025 tax and spending law aimed at boosting domestic energy production. Early interest appears weak, with only 12 companies bidding on 0.4% of the offered acreage, continuing a trend of declining auction revenues since the December sale.

• Only 69 bids submitted for 330,000 acres (0.4% of total offered), suggesting limited industry interest despite the massive acreage available
• Auction revenues have declined sharply: March sale generated $47 million versus $279.4 million in the first December auction mandated by the law
• The sale follows U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that disrupted global crude flows and pushed oil prices to four-year highs, though offshore production represents just 15% of U.S. output

AI infrastructure spending is driving up costs for electricity, chips, and data centers before productivity gains materialize, complicating Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's inflation fight. Corporate AI adoption remains uneven, with power users deploying AI at eight times the rate of average companies. The mismatch between immediate costs and delayed benefits has created debate at the Fed about whether AI-driven inflation warrants interest rate hikes.

• AI spending is expected to reach $581 billion in the U.S. this year (1.8% of GDP), pushing up electricity prices by 10.1% over two years and DRAM costs by 400% since 2024.
• Only 4.8% of companies were using AI as of May 2025, with adoption far more prevalent at large firms than small ones, delaying the productivity boom that could offset rising costs.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented in favor of a rate hike in July, citing data center investment as a driver of inflation, while Warsh acknowledged that AI's productivity effects remain 'hard to predict.'

Mortgage rates declined slightly last week after five consecutive weeks of increases, dropping to 6.77% for 30-year fixed-rate loans from 6.81%. The small decrease prompted a 3.6% rise in total mortgage application volume, though demand remains weak compared to last year due to high home prices and economic uncertainty.

• Refinance applications increased 5% week-over-week but remain 22% lower than the same week last year, with average loan sizes falling to their lowest level since July 2025
• Purchase applications rose 3% for the week but were still 1% lower year-over-year, indicating August 2026 is tracking weaker than August 2025
• Rates could shift significantly based on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release, which is described as 'one of the most important pieces of monthly economic data' for mortgage rates

India's consumer price inflation rose to 4.45% in July from 4.38% in June, strengthening expectations that the Reserve Bank of India may raise interest rates later this year. The inflation figure came in slightly below the 4.50% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

• Inflation accelerated for a consecutive month, reaching 4.45% in July compared to 4.38% in June
• The figure was marginally below the 4.50% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters
• The uptick in inflation increases the likelihood of a rate hike by India's central bank later in the year

Singapore-listed Wilmar International reported a 9.9% increase in core net profit to $641.5 million for the first half of the year, up from $583.7 million in the prior year period. The agricultural commodities giant's growth was driven by strong performance in its feed and industrial products division and food products business.

• Feed and industrial products division profit surged 55%, boosted by higher tropical oils volumes and refining margins, plus stronger feed demand in China that increased soybean crushing activity
• Food products unit earnings jumped 56% on higher sales volumes, asset disposal gains, and consolidation of AWL Agri Business results following Adani Group's $1.3 billion exit last year
• The company proposed an interim dividend of S$0.05 per share

Meta, Google's YouTube, TikTok parent ByteDance, and Snap face thousands of lawsuits from states, school districts, and individuals alleging their platforms were intentionally designed to addict young users, causing mental health harm. The companies deny wrongdoing and cite Section 230 protections, but early trial results show significant jury awards against Meta and Google. These cases are increasing pressure for stricter youth protection regulations as bellwether trials help shape potential settlement values.

• In March 2025, a New Mexico jury ordered Meta to pay $900 million in civil penalties for failing to protect young users from sexual exploitation, with a judge later ordering an additional $100 million and mandating youth-safety measures.
• The first individual trial resulted in a jury finding Meta and Google liable, awarding $4.2 million and $1.8 million respectively to a young woman who claimed social media addiction caused her depression and anxiety.
• Over 1,000 school districts have sued seeking compensation for costs incurred dealing with social media's effects on students; one Kentucky district settled for $250,000 before its scheduled June trial.

Russia's Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery halted operations on August 11 following a Ukrainian drone attack that caused a fire and damaged refining units. The facility, located 1,900 km east of Ukraine's border, has a capacity of 115,200 barrels per day. This strike is part of Ukraine's intensified 2024 campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure.

• The refinery has a nameplate capacity of 5.76 million metric tons per year (115,200 bpd) and processed 4.2 million tons of crude oil in 2024
• In 2024, the plant produced 1.8 million tons of diesel, 600,000 tons of gasoline, 500,000 tons of bitumen, and 200,000 tons of fuel oil
• Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure throughout 2024, targeting refineries, pipelines, and ports

Bank of America announced a $250 billion Critical Infrastructure Finance Initiative to fund U.S. infrastructure projects through lending, investments, and advisory services over an 18-month period ending July 4, 2027. The initiative targets digital infrastructure (data centers, semiconductors), energy and power systems, and core infrastructure (transportation, water systems). The effort aims to strengthen energy security, technological leadership, and economic growth while potentially creating tens of thousands of jobs.

• The $250 billion will be deployed through lending, investments, capital markets and advisory transactions between January 1, 2026 and July 4, 2027
• Focus areas include data centers, semiconductor facilities, power generation (conventional and renewable), energy storage, transportation, and critical minerals
• Bank of America invested nearly $40 million in workforce development in 2025, helping connect more than 90,000 people with employment opportunities across 97 U.S. markets