General Market News

U.S. Treasury yields remained largely unchanged early in the week as investors assessed President Trump's decision to raise global tariffs to 15% from 10%, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down much of his previous tariff implementation. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.076%, while investors await key economic data including durable goods orders and producer price index.

• The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on Friday that Trump wrongfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enforce tariffs, but Trump immediately responded by raising global tariffs to 15%
• Treasury yields showed minimal movement: 10-year at 4.076% (down less than 1 basis point), 30-year at 4.72%, and 2-year at 3.47%
• Investors are monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including durable goods orders and factory orders on Monday, and the producer price index on Friday

Following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), President Trump implemented new 15% global duties under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. This shift has created winners and losers: U.S. allies like the U.K., EU, Japan, and South Korea face higher trade-weighted tariffs, while countries like Brazil and China see sharp reductions. The change has raised confusion about existing bilateral trade deals and their enforceability.

• The U.K. faces a 2.1 percentage point tariff increase and the EU sees a 0.8 point rise, while Brazil's rate drops 13.6 points and China's falls 7.1 points on a trade-weighted basis.
• Countries that negotiated early deals with the U.S., such as Japan (which committed $150 billion in investment), now receive the same treatment as those who resisted negotiations, potentially paying for no advantage.
• Uncertainty persists as Trump announced 15% tariffs but the White House fact sheet lists 10%, and the legal basis for bilateral deals and product-level carve-outs under Section 122 remains unclear.

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 oil price forecasts by $6, projecting Brent crude at $60 per barrel and WTI at $56, driven by lower OECD inventory levels. The bank also increased its full-year 2026 averages to $64 for Brent (from $56) and $60 for WTI (from $52), while maintaining its outlook of a 2.3 million bpd supply surplus and assuming no Iran-related supply disruptions.

• Goldman's $60 Brent forecast for Q4 2026 includes a $6 risk premium that could fade if geopolitical tensions ease, with downside risks of $5-8 per barrel if sanctions on Iran or Russia are lifted
• The bank expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing production in Q2 2026 as OECD inventories have not built up as anticipated
• Goldman projects Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61 respectively in 2027, rising to $70 and $66 by December 2027 on solid demand and slowing supply growth

European stocks are expected to open lower on Monday as markets react to President Trump's announcement of increased global tariffs from 10% to 15%, effective immediately. The move comes after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against a portion of Trump's reciprocal tariffs last week, prompting the administration to implement broader tariff measures that have heightened concerns about inflation and global growth.

• U.K. stocks expected to open 0.2% lower, with Germany down 0.7%, France down 0.4%, and Italy down 0.45%
• Trump raised the worldwide tariff from 10% to 15% effective immediately via Truth Social, warning that additional levies would follow
• Market uncertainty has increased over the outlook for inflation and global growth following the new blanket tariff policy

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs, ruling he wrongfully invoked emergency powers, which has strengthened China's negotiating position ahead of an April summit between Trump and Xi Jinping. The ruling weakens Trump's leverage on his signature trade policy as he seeks to secure commitments from China on purchases of U.S. goods while Beijing is expected to push for reduced support for Taiwan.

• Trump's tariff authority has been 'clipped' as the Supreme Court invalidated his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), resulting in an estimated 5-7% net reduction in U.S. tariffs on China according to Goldman Sachs
• China gains leverage to demand removal of remaining 10% fentanyl-linked tariffs, rollback of technology export controls, and reduced U.S. arms sales to Taiwan during the March 31-April 2 summit
• Trump retains non-tariff tools including technology controls and sanctions, and has responded by imposing a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, though a Section 301 investigation into China's Phase One trade deal compliance remains ongoing

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs, creating fiscal uncertainty as potential refunds could reach $170 billion while Trump rushes to impose replacement levies. The ruling has triggered dollar weakness and volatility in Treasury markets as investors grapple with unclear implications for U.S. finances, inflation, and trade policy. Markets face heightened uncertainty despite Trump's replacement tariffs being lower than the original levies.

• Potential tariff refunds of around $170 billion could force additional Treasury issuance, risking curve steepening pressure particularly at the long end amid already elevated borrowing needs
• Trump's 15% replacement tariff lasts only 150 days with unclear implementation details, down from original levies that were projected to generate $300 billion annually over the next decade
• The dollar has dropped nearly 12% since Trump's second term began in early 2025, falling 0.4% against the euro on Monday as uncertainty mounts over fiscal deficits and trade policy

Markets showed limited reaction to President Trump's latest tariff announcement raising global tariffs to 15% from 10%, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down earlier levies. Analysts suggest investors remain patient and focus on fundamentals rather than react to what many view as temporary negotiating tactics, though the tariff adjustments represent a procedural reset rather than a policy reversal.

• Trump reimposed tariffs at 15% under Section 122 after the Supreme Court invalidated his prior IEEPA-based tariffs, but analysts note this new authority is temporary and less flexible than previous measures
• Market reaction was muted with Asia stocks mostly higher, U.S. dollar down 0.3%, and Treasury yields unchanged, while Bitcoin fell over 5% reflecting its high-beta liquidity characteristics
• Top strategists recommend a 'sit still and do nothing' approach, arguing that Trump's pattern of using tariffs as negotiating leverage (dubbed 'TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out') makes policy statements non-durable

Bitcoin dropped more than 5% to fall below $65,000 on Monday following President Donald Trump's announcement of plans to raise global tariffs to 15%. The decline reflects weakened risk sentiment among investors reacting to the escalating trade measures.

• Bitcoin fell from approximately $68,410 to below $65,000, representing a loss of over $3,800 per coin
• The cryptocurrency decline coincided with Trump's announcement of a 15% global tariff increase, creating broader market uncertainty
• The sell-off demonstrates Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic policy changes and its correlation with risk-off sentiment in financial markets

The European Commission strongly demanded the US honor last year's EU-US trade deal after President Trump imposed new 10-15% across-the-board tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his global tariffs. The EU insists its products must maintain agreed-upon competitive treatment with no tariff increases beyond previously negotiated limits.

• Last year's trade deal eliminated tariffs for most EU goods (except sectoral items like steel) and allowed zero tariffs on products such as aircraft and spare parts
• Trump announced temporary 10% tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling, which he subsequently increased to 15%
• EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic discussed the issue with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Saturday

Donald Trump raised worldwide tariffs on imported goods to 15%, up from the 10% rate he announced just one day earlier on Friday. The move comes after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that his previous tariff methods under a 1977 law were unconstitutional, forcing him to use a different legal mechanism (Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974) that only lasts 150 days.

• The Supreme Court deemed Trump's prior tariff system unconstitutional, ruling that the tariffs exceeded presidential powers granted by Congress under a 1977 law for national emergencies
• The new 15% global tariff uses Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which has a 150-day limit, forcing the administration to seek alternative legal mechanisms
• Exemptions exist for agricultural products, steel, and cars, but governments worldwide are seeking clarity amid confusion and uncertainty about implementation

President Trump raised tariffs on all US imports from 10% to 15% on Saturday, less than 24 hours after the Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff policy as exceeding presidential authority. The new tariffs are imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows up to 15% tariffs for 150 days without congressional approval, though legal challenges are expected.

• The US has already collected at least $130 billion in tariffs under the struck-down IEEPA authority, with studies showing 90% of costs have been passed to American consumers
• The 15% tariff includes exemptions for critical minerals, metals, pharmaceuticals, and USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, while separate industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber and autos remain in place
• International leaders including German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron criticized the move, with Merz warning that 'the biggest poison for the economies of Europe and the US is this constant uncertainty about tariffs'

President Trump announced an immediate increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, marking a significant escalation in trade policy. The tariff hike takes effect immediately, impacting international trade across all affected countries. This represents a 50% increase in the baseline tariff rate on global imports.

• Tariffs increased from 10% to 15%, representing a 5 percentage point rise that takes effect immediately without a phase-in period
• The measure applies globally, affecting all countries subject to the baseline tariff structure
• This follows recent Supreme Court activity related to Trump's tariff policies, as indicated by trending related articles

Investment professionals warn that retail investors responding to market volatility by shifting to income-focused strategies like dividend stocks and bonds may be sacrificing returns. Nick Ryder of Kathmere Capital Management and Christian Magoon of Amplify ETFs argue that a total return approach based on goals and risk tolerance outperforms yield-chasing strategies over the long term.

• Kathmere Capital's CIO cautions that income-first investing 'leaves a lot on the table' and can push portfolios into unintended risk exposures, such as moving from investment-grade to high-yield bonds
• Experts recommend a total return-oriented approach starting with investor goals and risk tolerance rather than leading with income generation
• Amplify ETFs' CEO warns against 'yield traps' where investors chase maximum yield without considering capital appreciation potential

The Supreme Court struck down a large portion of President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, affecting about 60% of his tariff measures. While the decision was expected, uncertainty remains about economic impacts, potential refunds of $85-175 billion in collected tariffs, and Trump's next moves, as he vowed to continue pursuing tariffs through other legal authorities. The ruling provides modest relief on inflation and market volatility, though Trump has already signaled plans to reimpose tariffs using alternative provisions.

• Economic impact expected to be limited with growth likely above-trend in Q1 2026; retail and manufacturing sectors are potential major beneficiaries from tariff removal
• Tariff refunds estimated between $85-175 billion remain unresolved, with analysts skeptical the government will pay retroactively as the issue works through lower courts
• Markets rallied on the news but Federal Reserve rate cut expectations remained largely unchanged, with traders still pricing in two cuts in 2026; about 40% of Trump's tariffs remain in place

Small cap stocks, tracked by the Russell 2000 Index and IWM ETF, are showing leadership while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ struggle below their 50-day moving averages. However, momentum indicators for small caps are declining even as prices hold steady, creating a divergence that could signal the broader market's next directional move. The performance of small caps in coming sessions may determine whether the overall equity market continues its risk appetite or faces increased downside pressure.

• Russell 2000/IWM is holding its 50-day moving average and remains bullish while S&P 500 and NASDAQ trade below this key technical level
• A bearish divergence has emerged: IWM momentum has already fallen below its 50-day moving average even though price remains above, potentially serving as an early warning signal
• If small caps maintain their bullish structure and momentum recovers, it could lift broader indexes; if price confirms weakening momentum, it may signal increased risk across all equities

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in a 6-3 ruling, but tariffs enacted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 remain in effect. Industries including automotive, furniture, steel and aluminum, and semiconductors continue facing tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, impacting major manufacturers and potentially raising consumer prices.

• Automotive sector still faces 25% tariffs on foreign vehicles and parts, with some countries like UK and Japan negotiating reductions to 10-15%; major automakers like GM and Ford report multi-billion dollar charges ($2-4 billion annually)
• Steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50%, affecting home appliances, electronics, and beverage can producers, while furniture faces 25% tariffs set to increase to 100%
• Semiconductors face 25% tariffs effective last month, and pharmaceuticals could face tariffs up to 250% unless drugmakers increase US production, though nine major companies secured exemptions by agreeing to lower prices

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's tariffs imposed under national emergency powers, ruling that only Congress has authority over taxation. While the decision reduces the average U.S. trade-weighted tariff from 15.3% to 8.3%, Trump immediately announced a new 10% global tariff under different legal authority, maintaining trade uncertainty and leaving the rules-based international economic architecture fractured.

• The ruling will reduce tariffs on China from 36.8% to 21.2%, on Brazil from 26.3% to 6.8%, and on Japan from 14.9% to 9.9% on a trade-weighted basis
• The invalidated tariffs collected about $120 billion, or 0.5% of GDP, creating a budget hole that Trump seeks to fill with alternative measures
• Trump responded by invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act for a new 10% blanket global tariff, though this requires congressional approval to extend beyond 150 days

U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4% in December 2025 despite slowing wage growth of just 0.2%, the weakest since June. Households are shifting expenditures from goods to services while GDP growth decelerated to 1.4% in Q4 2025. The data reveals continued but more cautious consumer activity anchored by credit and buy-now-pay-later financing, particularly among younger workers facing stagnant incomes.

• Spending on services jumped 0.7% while goods spending fell 0.1%, marking the first decline in six months as households reallocate budgets toward housing, healthcare, and travel.
• Labor Economy workers (earning $25/hour or less) drive $1.7 trillion in annual spending but only 29.4% expect financial improvement in 2026, with half anticipating flat wages and rising expenses.
• BNPL usage among bridge millennials surged 56% to 25% in December, with 42% also using credit card installment plans, demonstrating financing tools as core budget infrastructure rather than occasional assistance.

Businesses and industry groups responded to the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to block Donald Trump's emergency tariffs, expressing relief at the ruling while acknowledging uncertainty ahead. The decision found Trump's method of imposing tariffs illegal, though tariffs themselves remain permissible through proper legal processes. Companies now face a complicated refund process and continued unpredictability in trade policy.

• The Supreme Court ruled Trump's method of imposing tariffs illegal, not tariffs themselves, requiring clear definitive reasons for future implementation
• Industry leaders across apparel, retail, wine & spirits, and baby products emphasized the need for predictable, rule-of-law compliant trade policy to support business and investment decisions
• A major challenge ahead involves processing refunds through intermediaries like DHL and FedEx who paid tariffs on behalf of customers, potentially leading to litigation and tension

JPMorgan warns that the Trump administration could be forced to refund $150-200 billion in tariffs to US businesses following a Supreme Court ruling. The bank's economist Michael Feroli cautioned that even if tariffs are reimposed under different legal authority, the uncertainty and restructuring would create significant economic disruption and increase the fiscal deficit.

• Major corporations including Costco, J.Crew, Crocs, Goodyear, and EssilorLuxottica have filed lawsuits seeking tariff refunds, with lower courts now determining actual refund amounts and timing
• JPMorgan forecasts the fiscal deficit could rise to 6.6% of GDP in 2026 (roughly $2.1 trillion), a half-point increase, due to potential refunds and economic disruption
• Administration officials vowed to 'recreate the exact tariff structure' using other legal authorities, but JPMorgan warns this realignment would still create winners and losers while significantly increasing trade policy uncertainty