General Market News

Oil prices rose Monday as uncertainty persists over a potential U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Minister denied direct talks with the U.S., contradicting Washington's claims that a deal is near, while Iran reportedly demands compensation and six conditions before reopening the critical waterway.

• Brent crude futures gained 1.09% to $84.46 per barrel, while U.S. crude advanced 0.84% to $78.84 per barrel
• Iran has demanded the U.S. meet six conditions including ending the war and aggression before reopening Hormuz, which has been effectively closed for six months
• Additional supply risks remain as Houthi groups continue attacks on Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb, disrupting alternative routes

Japanese executives are warning that currency volatility and the persistently weak yen pose significant risks to Japan's import-dependent economy, despite some exporters benefiting from the weaker currency. The concerns prompted a joint Japan-U.S. intervention in August 2026 after the yen hit a 40-year low near 164 to the dollar. Company leaders are calling for exchange rate stability, noting that sharp currency swings complicate earnings forecasts and investment decisions.

• The yen reached a 40-year low at nearly 164 to the dollar in July 2026, prompting joint Japan-U.S. intervention that lifted the currency by approximately 5%
• A JETRO survey found only 11% of firms preferred exchange rates above 150 yen to the dollar, with nearly a fifth preferring the 120-124 range, though executives doubt a return to those levels
• Import-dependent companies face mounting pressure from higher costs for energy, materials and food, threatening Japan's gradual emergence from decades of deflation even as some exporters like Mitsui & Co posted record quarterly earnings

Infrastructure investor I Squared Capital won a months-long bidding war to acquire Australian outdoor advertising company oOh!media in a deal valued at A$1.04 billion ($735 million) including debt. The transaction, which beat out rival bids from Pacific Equity Partners, Bain Capital, and Oaktree Capital, values oOh!media's equity at approximately A$898 million and will be implemented through a scheme of arrangement.

• The offer represents a 6.9% premium to oOh!media's recent closing price and a 100% premium to the A$0.85 closing price on April 28 when Pacific Equity Partners made its initial offer
• The competitive bidding process intensified after Pacific Equity Partners launched its takeover offer in April, drawing interest from multiple global investment firms
• oOh!media's board unanimously recommended the I Squared Capital offer and plans to pay shareholders a fully franked special dividend of about 10 Australian cents per share

Innovent Biologics and Daiichi Sankyo have signed an exclusive agreement for the commercialization of Vanflyta (quizartinib) in China, a treatment for newly diagnosed FLT3-ITD positive acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Under the deal, Daiichi Sankyo handles development and manufacturing while Innovent holds sole commercialization rights. The drug received Chinese approval in June 2026.

• Vanflyta becomes Innovent's 20th commercialized product, strengthening its hematology portfolio alongside existing oncology products including TYVYT, HALPRYZA, and FUCASO
• FLT3-ITD mutations occur in approximately 25% of all AML cases and are associated with poor prognosis, including increased relapse risk and shorter overall survival
• In China, nearly 82,000 people were diagnosed with leukemia in 2022 with over 50,000 deaths, making it the tenth deadliest cancer, with AML representing roughly 50% of leukemia cases

Australia's Treasury Wine Estates announced a $394.5 million post-tax charge for 2026 related to write-downs of U.S. assets and brands, including DAOU, Frank Family Vineyards, and Beaulieu Vineyard. Despite the significant charge following a strategic review, the company expects full-year earnings to exceed its previous guidance range. Shares climbed on the news.

• The A$558.4 million charge includes non-cash write-downs of U.S. assets and brand impairments, plus inventory write-downs of predominantly bulk wine
• Main brand impairments affect DAOU, Frank Family Vineyards, and Beaulieu Vineyard following a review of asset carrying values as of June 30
• Unaudited 2026 EBITS expected at A$492.3 million, exceeding the A$480-490 million guidance range provided in June, offsetting investor concerns about the write-downs

Bank of America is warning that market euphoria has reached extreme levels, with its Bull & Bear Indicator hitting 9.7 out of 10, the highest since 2021. The bank advises investors to reduce exposure to risk assets as positioning has become unusually bullish, leaving markets vulnerable to negative surprises despite ongoing record highs in equities.

• BofA's sentiment gauge rose from 9.4 to 9.7 (maximum 10), driven by strong equity momentum, with stock funds attracting $32.9 billion and ETFs receiving $40.1 billion in weekly inflows
• Investment-grade bonds drew $10.2 billion and high-yield bonds attracted $4.1 billion, marking the strongest weekly intake in over two years and signaling broad-based risk appetite
• BofA recommends rotating into defensive sectors including consumer staples, REITs, small-caps, and biotechnology, while reducing exposure to commercial banking, industrials, and semiconductors

Firefighters extinguished a fire at a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels claiming responsibility for a drone strike on the facility. The incident occurred amid broader regional tensions, as Iran laid out demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including lifting sanctions and withdrawing U.S. forces. No injuries were reported from the refinery fire.

• Iran-backed Houthis claimed the drone strike was in response to Saudi violations of Yemeni airspace, continuing a pattern of attacks on Aramco infrastructure since the war began
• Iranian Foreign Minister confirmed messages are being exchanged with the U.S. through intermediaries like Oman, but said reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on conditions beyond current negotiations
• Iran demands the U.S. lift naval blockades and sanctions, withdraw military forces, pay war reparations, and release frozen assets as conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about a fifth of global energy supplies

Weak US jobs data for July, showing 23,000 job losses and downward revisions totaling 103,000 jobs, reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September from 55% to 44%. The upcoming CPI report on August 12 will be critical for the Fed's next decision, as inflation remains above target at 3.5%. The shifting Fed outlook has weakened the US dollar and supported EUR/USD above the 1.1360 level.

• July jobs report showed 23,000 job losses with May and June figures revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs, while unemployment fell to 4.1% primarily due to declining labor force participation (61.4%, lowest in five years)
• Annual inflation expected to slow to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, with core inflation forecast at 2.5%, but energy inflation remains elevated at 15.5% amid US-Iran tensions affecting oil prices
• EUR/USD maintains bullish structure above 1.1360 support with potential to reach 1.1780-1.192, supported by diverging Fed-ECB expectations as another ECB rate hike remains likely in September

U.S. stock markets posted strong weekly gains with the Dow up 2.96%, Nasdaq up 5.19%, and S&P 500 up 3.58%, reaching near-record highs above their 52-week moving averages. This week's CPI and PPI reports will test market expectations for reduced Federal Reserve tightening after weak July payrolls showed a 23,000 decline and wage growth slowed to its weakest pace in nearly five years. Earnings from AI-focused companies CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials will gauge whether strong AI spending continues.

• Second-quarter earnings growth is tracking near 48% with over 85% of S&P 500 companies reporting, significantly exceeding the 24% estimate at the season's start, while growth remains near 29% excluding investment-related gains at Alphabet and Amazon.
• Core CPI is forecast at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% year-over-year on Wednesday, with overall CPI expected at 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually, down from prior readings of 0.0%/-0.4% and 2.6%/3.5% respectively.
• CoreWeave revenue is expected to rise 110.7% to $2.56 billion, Cisco revenue forecast at $16.83 billion (up 14.7%), and Applied Materials revenue projected at $9.01 billion (up 23.4%), all driven by AI infrastructure demand.

A fire broke out early Sunday at Saudi Aramco's refinery facility in Jizan, located on the Red Sea near Yemen's border. The company's industrial firefighting teams successfully extinguished the blaze with no injuries reported, according to Saudi Arabia's energy ministry.

• Saudi Aramco's firefighting teams contained and extinguished the fire at the Jizan refinery facility
• No injuries were reported from the incident, with authorities completing necessary procedures
• The facility is strategically located in Jizan on the Red Sea near the Yemen border

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are emerging as a growing trend in the ETF industry as investors seek fixed income alternatives amid interest rate uncertainty. VettaFi's Todd Rosenbluth notes strong demand for these short-term floating-rate secured loan pools, with specialized providers like Reckoner Capital Management actively launching new CLO ETF products. The trend reflects advisors combining core income portfolios with shorter-duration and CLO strategies while awaiting clarity on Federal Reserve policy.

• CLOs are short-term fixed income strategies consisting of pools of floating-rate secured loans designed to provide yield in uncertain rate environments
• AAA-rated CLO tranches have near-zero default rates, but lower-tier tranches (BBB-B) face heightened default risk and volatility during economic stress
• CLO pools carry significant exposure to private equity and technology sectors, making them vulnerable to spread widening during private credit jitters or tech selloffs

Financial advisors now recommend retirees maintain 40-80% equity exposure in their portfolios, a significant shift from the traditional conservative approach of limiting stocks to 30% or less. This change reflects the need to combat inflation and longevity risk, as over 4.1 million Americans turn 65 annually from 2024-2027 and may need their savings to last 30+ years. Being too conservative in retirement actually increases the risk of running out of money.

• Most wealth managers recommend 40-60% equity allocation for retirees in their late 60s and early 70s, adjusting based on individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and whether wealth transfer to heirs is a goal
• Even at age 80, advisors suggest maintaining 20-40% in equities rather than zero, with a shift toward dividend-paying stocks and income-focused ETFs for capital preservation while still generating growth
• Target-date funds offer a simpler solution for DIY investors, though some may fall below the 40-80% range considered optimal; Vanguard's funds drop to 30% stock exposure seven years post-retirement

The Dow Jones climbed back to 54,026 after a weak July jobs report (-23,000 jobs) reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike, supporting stocks through lower Treasury yields. However, new Trump tariffs on polysilicon (15%) and potential 50% tariffs on Canadian imports create inflation risks that could keep the index volatile near its record high of 55,000.

• July job losses and falling labor force participation (61.4% vs 63% pre-pandemic) cut September rate-hike odds from 56% to 44%, but weak hiring raises concerns about consumer spending and economic strength
• Trump's polysilicon tariffs (effective December 4) and pending 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods (August 19) could raise business costs and inflation, potentially keeping Fed rates elevated longer
• Technical analysis shows Dow is overbought near 55,000 resistance with potential pullback to 52,000-53,000 support before targeting 56,400-59,000; a drop to 50,000 would mark a key long-term pivot point

Gold prices surged nearly $300 this week, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data that reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with 84% of Wall Street analysts and 69% of retail investors expecting further price increases. The rally pushed gold above $4,300 per ounce, marking the precious metal's best weekly performance since January.

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls contracted for the second time this year, missing economist expectations of 85,000 job gains, prompting markets to price in less than 50% chance of a September Fed rate hike (down from nearly 60% before the data)
• In Kitco's weekly survey, 16 of 19 analysts (84%) were bullish on gold, while 166 of 241 retail investors (68.9%) expected prices to rise next week
• Analysts warn the rally may face resistance at $4,400-$4,500 levels and caution that upcoming CPI data on Tuesday could threaten momentum if inflation remains persistent, potentially forcing the Fed to maintain its tightening stance

Software stocks experienced extreme volatility this week amid investor concerns about AI disrupting traditional SaaS businesses. While Airtable sold for one-tenth of its peak valuation and companies like HubSpot and Datadog plunged on earnings, Atlassian and Twilio saw historic rallies exceeding 20%, suggesting selective resilience in the sector.

• Airtable acquired for under $1.3 billion by Bending Spoons, down from its 2021 peak valuation of $11 billion, highlighting pressure on venture-backed software companies
• Atlassian surged 35% (best day since 2015 IPO) and Twilio jumped over 20% on strong quarterly results, contradicting fears that AI coding agents would devastate software categories
• The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell 24% in Q1 (worst since 2008) but has since rebounded to down just 3% for the year, while 86% of private deal value in H1 2026 went to AI companies

President Trump is making a second attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, following a Supreme Court ruling in June that blocked his initial firing but allowed him to retry if he provides notice and an opportunity to respond. The White House has given Cook three weeks to address mortgage-fraud allegations, which she denies and has vowed to challenge in court. The move comes after Cook expressed support for raising interest rates if inflation persists, escalating Trump's ongoing battle with the Fed over monetary policy independence.

• The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in June that Trump must give Cook notice and a chance to respond before removing her, rejecting the administration's claim that presidential 'cause' determinations are beyond judicial scrutiny
• Trump's allegations stem from claims by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte that Cook falsified bank documents for favorable mortgage terms before joining the Fed, though she has never been charged with a crime
• Cook stated Wednesday she is 'prepared to act by raising rates, if necessary' to combat inflation, aligning with Fed officials signaling potential policy tightening contrary to Trump's repeated demands for lower interest rates

Donald Trump is attempting again to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, the first Black woman in the role, after the Supreme Court blocked his previous effort in June. The White House sent Cook a letter with unproven mortgage fraud allegations, giving her three weeks to respond, which her lawyers called 'baseless'. This marks an unprecedented challenge to Fed independence, as no president since the central bank's 1913 founding has tried to remove a Fed governor.

• The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in June against Trump's first attempt to fire Cook, with Chief Justice Roberts stating Trump failed to provide proper procedural protections required by statute
• The White House letter alleges crimes that could carry a 30-year prison sentence, but Cook's lawyer says there is 'no valid cause' for removal and will challenge any dismissal attempt
• Trump's new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took over in May 2026, but interest rates have remained unchanged despite presidential pressure on the Fed board, where Biden appointees hold the majority

A U.S. federal judge blocked the Defense Department from adding Chinese biotech firm WuXi AppTec to a list of companies allegedly supporting China's military, ruling the government lacked sufficient evidence. The designation had already prompted WuXi's customers and suppliers to cancel contracts and shift business to competitors. Judge James Boasberg issued the injunction in favor of WuXi after the company filed suit challenging the June designation.

• Judge James Boasberg found the Defense Department lacked evidence to justify designating WuXi AppTec as a Chinese military-linked company
• The designation caused immediate business harm, with WuXi's customers and suppliers canceling contracts and moving to competitors
• The judge compared the military-linked designation to a 'scarlet letter' that sends a clear warning message to potential business partners

U.S. stock markets experienced a volatile week but all three major indexes were on track for their second consecutive weekly gain as of Friday, August 7, 2026. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all recorded new record highs earlier in the week despite market volatility. Amazon surpassed the $3 trillion market capitalization milestone during the week's trading.

• The Dow Jones reached a fresh record high on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched record highs on Tuesday
• Amazon.com (AMZN) surged to a record high and crossed the $3 trillion market cap threshold
• Mixed earnings results drove individual stock volatility, with Eli Lilly and Doximity beating expectations while others like ON Semiconductor faced downgrades after quarterly misses

Midstream energy companies are expanding natural gas pipeline infrastructure through acquisitions and new projects to meet rising demand from LNG exports and AI data centers. Williams Companies is acquiring Momentum Midstream for $5.5 billion, while multiple operators have sanctioned major pipeline projects with long-term contracts. These expansions target Gulf Coast LNG facilities and power generation for hyperscale data centers.

• Williams Companies announced a $5.5 billion acquisition of Momentum Midstream (adding 4.05 Bcf/d capacity) plus a $1.5 billion Delta Access Expansion project delivering 2.25 Bcf/d to Gulf Coast markets by early 2029
• Energy Transfer and NextEra sanctioned the 2.6 Bcf/d Bay Runner Twin Pipeline to supply NextEra's Rio Grande LNG terminal, scheduled for service by 2030 with take-or-pay agreements securing cash flows
• MPLX and EQT expanded infrastructure specifically for AI data centers, including MPLX's $400 million in projects serving Virginia data centers and EQT's 380 MMcf/d Ohio interconnect for a new AI facility