Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed as Iran seizes ships after Trump ceasefire extension

• Daily ship traffic through the strait remains at only 6 vessels compared to 100+ ships before the war, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizing ships and firing on vessels attempting 'unauthorized' crossings
• The security situation remains dangerous with multiple attacks this week, including Iranian forces firing on cargo and container ships, causing heavy damage
• Oil supply recovery will be slow, with flows not expected to reach 90% of pre-war levels until July, and processed products taking up to two additional months to reach refineries globally

Summary: Strait of Hormuz Closure Persists Despite Ceasefire Extension

Key Developments:

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal shipping traffic despite President Trump's extension of the ceasefire with Iran. Only six vessels, including three oil tankers, transited the strait on Wednesday—dramatically below the pre-conflict level of over 100 ships daily.

Security Situation:

The strait remains highly dangerous with multiple attacks this week. Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized two ships attempting to cross "without authorization" and fired upon vessels including a container ship that sustained heavy bridge damage. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre has warned of "high levels of activity" and advised ships to report suspicious incidents.

Both sides maintain aggressive postures: Iran continues controlling ship traffic through the strait while the U.S. maintains its blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The U.S. Navy boarded and seized an Iranian cargo ship Sunday attempting to evade the blockade.

Market Implications:

The strait previously handled approximately 20% of global crude oil supplies. This ongoing disruption represents what analysts call the largest oil supply disruption in history. According to Rystad Energy, oil flows won't reach 90% of pre-war levels until July, with an additional two months required for crude to reach refineries worldwide for processing.

Traffic Data:

• Wednesday: 6 ships (including 3 oil tankers)
• Tuesday: 6 ships
• Monday: ~12 commercial vessels
• Pre-conflict normal: 100+ ships daily

The limited ceasefire has failed to restore commercial shipping confidence, with security concerns and military actions by both Iran and the U.S. continuing to severely restrict this critical global energy chokepoint.