General Market News

Financial markets experienced significant volatility this week as investors grappled with concerns about AI's potential economic impact, triggered by a viral 7,000-word research piece warning of massive job losses and deflation. Despite strong Nvidia earnings, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined, while broader concerns emerged about power infrastructure limitations constraining AI data center growth.

• Nvidia posted better-than-expected quarterly results and forecasts, but investor fear overshadowed optimism, driving tech stock declines amid questions about whether markets are experiencing an 'AI bubble'
• South Korea's KOSPI index surged over 48% year-to-date, making it 2026's best-performing equity market thus far
• Trump administration signaled that hyperscalers must provide their own power for AI data centers to avoid stressing the grid and raising consumer electricity costs, highlighting physical infrastructure bottlenecks as a potential constraint on the AI revolution

Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, generated a $248 billion profit in 2025 with a 15.1% return, driven primarily by strong global equity performance. The fund, managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), is invested in over 7,200 companies across 60 countries and holds stakes in approximately 1.5% of the world's publicly listed stocks.

• U.S. technology stocks were the biggest contributors to returns, with nearly 40% of the fund invested in U.S. equities including major holdings like 1.3% stakes in Microsoft and Nvidia, and 1.2% in Apple
• The fund's equity investments returned 19.3%, while unlisted renewable energy infrastructure generated 18.1% gains following investments in projects like Germany's largest electricity grid
• NBIM has begun using AI (Anthropic's Claude model) to screen investments for ethical issues after suspending its ESG assessment processes following White House pressure over its Caterpillar divestment related to the West Bank conflict

U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, with the Nasdaq poised for its steepest monthly decline since March 2025, driven by growing concerns over AI investments and their returns. Technology stocks experienced significant turbulence this month amid questions about massive AI spending payoffs, while tariff uncertainty added to market volatility. Investors awaited key January producer price data that could signal the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

• Dow futures down 0.55%, S&P 500 futures down 0.36%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.31% in premarket trading, with the Nasdaq closing below its 50-day moving average for the 17th consecutive session
• Mixed corporate results added to volatility: Zscaler fell 9.1% on weak billings, Intuit dropped 3.6% on profit miss, while Dell surged 10.6% on AI server revenue expectations and Block jumped 19% on workforce restructuring plans
• Trump's temporary 10% global tariff that took effect Tuesday compounded market uncertainty after the Supreme Court voided most of his previous year's duties, contributing to heightened volatility

Ireland's retail sales increased 3% year-on-year in January 2025, marking the fastest annual growth rate in four months, according to provisional data from the Central Statistics Office. Monthly sales rose 1.5% compared to December, though sales excluding motor trades dipped 0.4% month-on-month.

• Total retail sales volumes grew 1.5% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year in January
• Excluding motor trades, sales fell 0.4% from December but still rose 2.1% compared to January 2024
• The 3% annual increase represents the strongest year-on-year growth pace recorded in the past four months

U.S. markets face uncertainty in the coming week as investors grapple with AI's disruptive potential across business sectors while awaiting February jobs data due March 6. The monthly employment report, expected to show 60,000 new jobs, will provide insight into labor market strength and potential Federal Reserve rate cut timing. Software and tech stocks remain volatile amid concerns about which sectors will be AI winners versus losers, though the S&P 500 has gained 0.9% year-to-date through late February 2026.

• February jobs report expected to show 60,000 new jobs, following January's surprisingly strong 130,000 gain and 4.3% unemployment rate, with implications for Fed rate cut timing potentially in June or July under new Fed leadership
• AI disruption fears continue pressuring software stocks while gains in industrials and consumer staples have buoyed broader indexes; Nvidia's recent earnings failed to calm investor nerves about the technology's economic impact
• Key earnings reports due from semiconductor giant Broadcom on Wednesday and retailers Best Buy and Target, as fourth-quarter earnings season concludes and investors seek evidence of AI's business impact

President Trump declared the affordability crisis over in his State of the Union address, claiming prices are 'plummeting downward.' However, polling data, economic analyses, and voter sentiment contradict this assertion, as tariffs, rising utility costs, healthcare premiums, and structural economic pressures continue to strain US households more than a year into his second term.

• A New York Fed report found US consumers are bearing up to 90% of tariff costs as the average tariff rate jumped from 2.6% to 13% through 2025, with companies from Levi's to Nike announcing price increases of $5-$10 per item or up to $1 billion in passed-through costs.
• Beyond tariffs, electricity costs rose 6.7% in 2025 (despite Trump's promise to halve them), healthcare premiums are spiking 114% on average, and natural gas prices are up 9.8% year-over-year, creating what economists call a 'knot' of affordability issues with no quick fix.
• Polls show large numbers of Trump's own voters now blame him for high living costs, while economists warn that economic chaos may enable 'seller's inflation' or price gouging, with lower-income Americans disproportionately hit by what functions as a regressive consumption tax.

Americans are experiencing sharply rising electricity costs, with prices increasing 6.3% year-over-year in January 2025, significantly outpacing the 2.4% overall inflation rate. The Energy Information Administration reports national electricity prices rose 7.1% to 13.72 cents per kilowatt-hour as of December, driven by winter weather demands, data center expansion, and a shift away from traditional energy sources toward renewables.

• The District of Columbia saw the largest electricity price spike at 26.29%, while Massachusetts led states with an 18.93% increase; nine other states experienced double-digit percentage increases
• Industry analysts attribute rising costs to regulatory policies favoring renewable energy over natural gas, coal, and nuclear power, making grid reliability more expensive and limiting infrastructure upgrades
• Five states bucked the national trend with price declines, led by Nevada (-7.68%) and Connecticut (-7.57%), while North Carolina saw no change year-over-year

This article argues that market corrections should be viewed as opportunities rather than threats, particularly for younger investors. The piece outlines three key reasons why downturns benefit long-term investors: compressed valuations create buying opportunities, dollar-cost averaging captures more shares at lower prices, and experiencing volatility builds emotional discipline essential for investment success.

• Corrections compress price-to-earnings ratios and wash out speculation, redirecting capital toward fundamentally sound businesses trading at discounted valuations
• Regular contributions during downturns allow dollar-cost averaging investors to purchase more shares at lower prices, which compounds returns when markets rebound
• Experiencing market volatility builds emotional discipline that separates patient investors from panic-sellers, creating a long-term competitive advantage

Schaeffers Research has identified 16 heavily shorted stocks that could be short squeeze candidates as Wall Street focuses on AI disruption. The screen targets stocks where short sellers may be sitting on significant losses and could be forced to cover their positions, based on short interest data from the February 15, 2026 reporting period.

• The screening methodology estimates short seller returns by tracking when shorts were added over the past year and comparing entry prices to current levels to identify positions with large unrealized losses
• Notable stocks on the list include AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Southern Copper (SCCO), and Applied Digital (APLD)
• The analysis suggests contrarian investors could profit by buying dips in these heavily shorted growth stocks that have declined but retain upside potential

The Nasdaq 100 fell on Thursday after failing to break above its 50-day moving average at 25,456, with tech and communication services stocks leading declines while financials and energy sectors outperformed. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.53%, the S&P 500 fell 0.87%, and the Dow declined 0.23% as investors continued to reassess AI and technology stock valuations. Major banks gained nearly 1% while weak guidance from C3.ai and Trade Desk pressured the tech sector.

• Technical resistance formed at the 50-day moving average (25,456) and 200-day moving average (24,510.75), with the index trading below the mid-point pivot at 24,983.50, indicating continued selling pressure
• C3.ai plunged 20% after issuing weak sales guidance and announcing a 26% workforce reduction, while Trade Desk fell 5% on disappointing revenue forecasts
• Big banks including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup each rose nearly 1%, and energy stocks climbed 0.9% as crude oil prices reversed earlier losses to gain over 1%

The first week of March 2026 features key economic data releases including manufacturing and services PMI readings, ADP employment report, and the monthly U.S. jobs report. The Federal Reserve will closely monitor these indicators as uncertainty continues around future interest rate decisions. Major retailers including Costco and Target are scheduled to report earnings alongside other notable companies.

• Manufacturing data (S&P PMI and ISM manufacturing) releases Monday, March 2, followed by services data (S&P services PMI and ISM services index) on Wednesday, March 4
• Employment data throughout the week includes the ADP report on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the full U.S. employment report with unemployment rate and wage data on Friday, March 6
• Earnings reports scheduled from retail giants Costco (COST) and Target (TGT), plus Best Buy (BBY), Broadcom (AVGO), AutoZone (AZO), and several other major companies

The EU is demanding the U.S. adhere to last year's 'Turnberry deal' after President Trump introduced a new 10% 'import surcharge' following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his previous tariff structure. Unlike the original deal, this surcharge applies on top of existing most-favored nation (MFN) duty rates, temporarily raising costs on certain EU exports worth $632 billion annually until the matter is resolved.

• The new surcharge adds 10% (rising to 15%) on top of MFN rates, unlike the Turnberry deal's flat 15% tariff, creating higher costs for goods with MFN rates above 5%, affecting 7% of EU exports including textiles, footwear (up to 48% total), dairy products, and certain produce
• The original Turnberry deal set broad 15% tariffs on most EU goods, maintained 50% on steel/aluminum, reduced car tariffs to 15%, while the EU eliminated duties on U.S. industrial goods and provided preferential access for American agricultural products
• The EU acknowledges facing a 'blip' of several months with higher tariffs on certain products, particularly affecting consumer goods like clothing, shoes, handbags, glassware, and cheeses like Parmesan (10% MFN) and Roquefort (8% MFN)

Women's investable assets in the U.S. are expected to nearly double from $18 trillion in 2023 to $34 trillion by 2030, driven partly by the 'Great Wealth Transfer' of $105 trillion passing to heirs through 2048. Women are gaining confidence and taking more investment risk, though they still face a wage gap and lag behind men in total assets under management. Financial experts recommend women maintain appropriate equity exposure and start investing early to maximize long-term wealth accumulation.

• Women are expected to receive a disproportionate share of the $54 trillion in spousal inheritance, as they live nearly 6 years longer than men on average.
• Female-led investment accounts showed the highest risk-adjusted returns over a seven-year period, partly because women trade less frequently and stick to their investment plans.
• Women still earn 81 cents for every dollar paid to men and hold only 34% of U.S. assets under management, though 71% now invest in stocks compared to 60% in the prior year.

BAE Systems and Boeing secured significant Pentagon contracts this week as President Trump pushes for increased defense spending. BAE Systems won a $500 million Army howitzer contract and a $99 million Air Force F-16 sustainment deal, while Boeing received nearly $81 million for bunker buster bombs and Special Operations helicopters. These awards reflect continued military procurement activity amid broader defense modernization efforts.

• BAE Systems' $500 million M109A7 Paladin howitzer contract will bolster Army Armored Brigade Combat Teams, with additional $98.87 million F-16 sustainment services extending through 2037 for multiple allied nations
• Boeing's contracts include $61.5 million for GBU-57 bunker buster bomb replenishment (completion 2028-2030) and $19.4 million for MH-47G helicopters for U.S. Special Operations Command
• BAE Systems stock has rallied over 23% year-to-date and trades near record highs after breaking out in January, while Boeing stock remains below its 50-day line with only 4% gains in 2025

RiverFront Investment Group views Kevin Warsh as a credible choice for Fed Chair, citing his experience from the 2008 financial crisis and pro-growth stance. The firm maintains a constructive view on technology stocks but prefers semiconductor and hardware companies over software-as-a-service providers amid the 'SaaSpocalypse' driven by AI disruption. Recent market volatility from the Warsh appointment and tech sector concerns is expected to be brief and shallow.

• Warsh served as Fed Governor 2006-2011, is pro-growth and anti-quantitative easing, and is aligned with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on policy views
• SaaS stocks are under pressure as new AI models like Anthropic's Cowork threaten to replace traditional software in financial and legal analysis
• Mega-cap technology cash flows have significantly outpaced the broader S&P 500 over the last three years, supporting RiverFront's overweight position in hardware over software

Stock futures held steady after major indexes posted two consecutive days of sharp gains driven by tech sector rallies. Key earnings reports from Nvidia, Salesforce, and other technology companies are driving market sentiment as investors assess corporate performance and AI infrastructure spending trends.

• Nvidia exceeded estimates with $1.62 adjusted earnings per share and projected current quarter revenue of $78 billion, with CEO Jensen Huang citing customers 'racing to invest in AI' amid exponentially growing compute demand
• Salesforce beat earnings expectations at $3.44 per share but provided fiscal 2027 revenue guidance with a midpoint below analyst consensus of $46.04 billion, pressuring shares amid broader software sector concerns about AI disruption
• Nutanix stock surged on a multiyear AI infrastructure partnership with AMD involving $150 million strategic investment and up to $100 million in joint engineering funding, while also beating quarterly estimates

US stock futures opened flat on Thursday as markets digested earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce. Nvidia beat expectations with Q4 revenue up 73% to $68.13 billion and guided Q1 revenue to $78 billion versus $72.78 billion expected, though the stock cooled after an initial afterhours pop. Salesforce fell 3% despite beating quarterly estimates due to weaker-than-expected guidance amid AI disruption concerns.

• Nvidia reported its 16th earnings beat in 17 quarters with adjusted EPS of $1.62 (versus $1.50 expected) and expects no China data center revenue in Q1 guidance, with Wedbush projecting the company could reach $6 trillion market cap by 2027
• Markets opened mixed with Dow up 0.4% but Nasdaq down 0.8% as Nvidia dropped 2.3% and semiconductor stocks fell, while Salesforce swung positive despite afterhours declines on AI competition concerns
• Oil prices fell 2.2% to under $64/barrel ahead of an OPEC+ meeting, with upcoming economic data including jobless claims and January PPI expected to show declining price pressures

Italy is implementing regulatory changes to adopt a less punitive approach toward financial companies, allowing firms to negotiate commitments instead of facing sanctions and exempting minor infringements under 10,000 euros from penalties. The measures aim to improve relations between regulators and markets, address issues hampering Italy's capital markets, which have among the lowest market-cap-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies at 48%.

• New decree allows financial firms to agree to commitments with authorities as alternative to sanctions, and eliminates penalties for minor violations worth less than 10,000 euros
• Milan bourse's market-cap-to-GDP ratio stands at just 48% as of end-2025, among the lowest in advanced economies according to Consob data
• Government seeks to reposition supervisory authorities from being perceived as 'repressive and uncooperative' to allies of the market, with measures designed to speed up regulatory proceedings

PYMNTS is launching the PYMNTS Consumer Expectations Index (PCEI) on March 2, 2026, a new monthly survey designed to better measure U.S. consumer sentiment by addressing three critical blind spots in traditional measures. The index aims to capture structural financial constraints that determine whether consumers can act on their confidence, not just how they feel about the economy.

• Traditional sentiment measures miss that cumulative price increases since 2020 have permanently damaged household budgets, even as inflation 'cools'—prices remain 25% higher while wages recovered slowly
• Income alone no longer predicts spending behavior: 61% of Americans lived paycheck to paycheck in one study, rising to 68% by another measure, with financial structure and liquidity determining actual spending capacity
• The February 2026 PCEI reading of 51.5 masks a 10-point spread between paycheck-to-paycheck consumers and others, while job security scores 83.5 but confidence in finding equivalent replacement work sits at just 48.0

Goldman Sachs prime brokerage predicts U.S. software and IT services stocks will continue their recent rebound despite hedge funds holding record-high short positions against the sector. The S&P 500 software and services index has fallen over 18% year-to-date, losing more than $1.2 trillion in market value, but recovered over 4% this week.

• Software and IT services were the most heavily shorted U.S. industries on Goldman's prime brokerage desk as of February 24, with short positions at the highest level since tracking began in 2016
• Long positions on these stocks stand at a record low, indicating minimal bullish sentiment among hedge funds despite Goldman's optimistic outlook
• The S&P 500 software and services index has shed over $1.2 trillion in market value with an 18% decline year-to-date before this week's 4% recovery