General Market News

US retail sales fell 0.6% in July 2026, the first decline in nine months and the largest drop in 14 months, driven by fading tax refund benefits, Amazon's Prime Day timing shift, and lower gas prices. The unexpected weakness signals a consumer spending slowdown entering Q3 and reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September.

• Sales declined across key categories: nonstore retailers down 2.2%, auto dealers down 1.8%, and gas stations down 0.9%, though clothing stores rose 1.9% on back-to-school shopping
• Core retail sales (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services) fell 0.4% versus expectations of a 0.3% gain, suggesting weaker consumer spending for GDP calculations
• Economists cite consumer price sensitivity and exhausted tax refunds as headwinds, though stock market gains (up 14% year-to-date) and strong household wealth may prevent a spending collapse

President Trump announced new tariffs on drone imports and components to address national security threats and strengthen domestic manufacturing, with rates ranging from 10% to 100% depending on drone capabilities and country of origin. Defense drone stocks rallied on the news, with Unusual Machines surging nearly 12%, while commercial drone and air taxi manufacturers declined. The tariffs take effect between 21 and 180 days after signing, with exemptions available through Department of Defense approval.

• Tariffs vary by capability: 100% on drones over 25kg or with thermal imaging, 25% on smaller/non-sensitive drones, and 10-15% on imports from allied nations like the UK, EU, Japan, and Taiwan
• Defense drone makers gained with Unusual Machines up 12%, AeroVironment up 1%, and Ondas up 4%, while air taxi firms dropped with BETA Technologies down 6% and Joby Aviation down 2%
• The proclamation authorizes the Commerce Secretary to establish onshoring programs for companies investing in U.S. drone manufacturing, with most tariffs effective September 4

ASE Technology (ASX) is experiencing strong demand for its leading-edge advanced packaging and testing (LEAP) services, driven by AI infrastructure needs. The company now expects 2026 LEAP revenues to exceed $3.5 billion, up from previous guidance, and projects 35% ATM revenue growth for the year. This momentum positions ASX to compete more effectively against rivals Amkor Technology and Intel in the advanced packaging market.

• ASX raised 2026 capital expenditure to $10.5 billion (up $2 billion), with 70% of equipment spending allocated to leading-edge operations to meet growing demand
• ATM gross margin improved to 27.3% in Q2 2026 from 21.9% a year ago, with management expecting margins to exceed 30% by Q4 2026 due to higher LEAP mix and utilization
• The company aims to double LEAP revenues in 2027, while competitors Amkor announced a $1.5 billion partnership with NVIDIA and Intel plans to ramp EMIB-T technology into high-volume production in 2027

Turkey significantly reduced oil imports from Russian Black Sea ports in July and August 2026 following Ukrainian drone attacks that disrupted exports from key terminals including CPC and Novorossiysk. Turkish imports from Russian Black Sea ports dropped from 600,000 tons in June to just over 300,000 tons in July, with August expected to see only 200,000 tons. Turkey is diversifying supply sources, making rare imports from Brazil and Guyana to offset the disruption.

• Total Turkish oil imports from Russian ports fell from 1.2 million tons in June to 900,000 tons in July, with Black Sea supplies cut in half
• Ukrainian attacks led to a one-week export suspension from the CPC terminal, which carries about 1.8% of global oil supply from Kazakhstan
• Ukraine paused drone strikes on non-Russian tankers using the CPC terminal after intervention from U.S. Vice President JD Vance

The US government sold 30-year Treasury bonds at a yield of 5.216%, the highest borrowing cost since 2001, reflecting investor concerns about persistent inflation and rising national debt. The elevated yields indicate investors are demanding higher compensation for long-term US debt amid fiscal pressures from Trump administration spending plans and tax cuts. This development raises concerns about the Treasury Department's ability to fund a growing budget deficit at sustainable rates.

• The $25 billion auction of 30-year bonds yielded 5.216%, a 25-year high, as bond prices fell amid inflation fears and fiscal risk concerns
• Analysts warn that if investors continue demanding greater compensation for inflation and fiscal risks, long-term yields could rise further above 5% levels
• The elevated borrowing costs come as the government faces a growing deficit due to Trump's spending plans and tax cuts, making debt financing more expensive

Severe drought and heat in France could cut the country's maize harvest by half to its lowest level since 1976, potentially pushing total EU maize production below 50 million tons for the first time since the 1990s. The crop failures will significantly increase the EU's need for maize imports, though Poland and Romania are expected to partially offset losses with better-than-expected harvests.

• French maize production could fall to under 7 million tons (down ~50% year-over-year), the lowest since 1976, with some crops being diverted to livestock fodder due to dried grassland
• EU maize output is projected to drop below 50 million tons for the first time since the 1990s, down from the European Commission's July forecast of 51.9 million tons
• Poland is set to become the EU's largest maize producer this year with output near 9 million tons, thanks to timely July rainfall, while Germany faces a 14% production decline

SpaceX and Blue Origin are planning to build data centers in space, with SpaceX proposing up to 1 million satellites for orbital AI computing. This emerging industry could create a major new market for insurers, but significant challenges remain in pricing and underwriting risks that have never existed at scale. The space insurance market currently generates only $500-$750 million in annual premiums, far below what would be needed to cover hundreds of billions in orbital infrastructure.

• SpaceX filed plans for up to 1 million satellites for orbital AI data centers, while Blue Origin proposed 51,600 satellites; Musk claims space computing could be economically viable within 2-3 years
• Only about 30 insurers worldwide currently specialize in space coverage, with annual premiums of $500-$750 million, insufficient to cover the proposed orbital infrastructure scale
• Major obstacles include lack of regulation, inability to reliably model risks like launch failures, radiation damage, collisions, and space debris, plus the challenge that repairs require new launches

Tether, the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin, announced that KPMG US conducted its first full independent audit of financial statements for 2025, though the audit was not made public. This marks a significant step toward transparency for the company, which has faced scrutiny and promised an audit for years. The audit showed reserves exceeded liabilities by $6.8 billion.

• KPMG US audited Tether International S.A. de CV's financials as of December 31, 2025, showing reserves exceeded liabilities by $6.8 billion
• Tether has issued approximately $183 billion in dollar-pegged crypto tokens, claiming to hold matching dollar-denominated assets including U.S. Treasuries
• The audit included physical counting of gold bars and examination of transactions, systems, and ownership records, complementing Tether's existing quarterly reserve reporting

Airlines are recovering from a multi-year engine crisis that grounded jets, but maintenance costs remain elevated even as aircraft return to service. Engine spending at six major U.S. airline operations rose 68% between 2019 and 2025 while flying hours increased only 10%, driven by durability issues with newer engines, Pratt & Whitney powder-metal defects, and delayed aircraft deliveries forcing extended use of older jets.

• Air New Zealand, which had up to 20% of its fleet unavailable at peak, expects it will take 12-18 months to shed extra engine and aircraft leases even after groundings improved
• Overhaul costs for newer LEAP and GTF engines have risen about twice as much since 2019 compared to older CFM56 and V2500 engines, with replacement-engine lease rates exceeding $6,500 daily versus around $5,000 in 2022-23
• Delayed aircraft deliveries from Boeing and Airbus added an estimated $3.1 billion to global airline maintenance costs in 2025 by keeping older jets in service longer and reducing availability of cheaper used engine parts

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday after Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened unprecedented economic sanctions against Iran and Defense Secretary Hegseth indicated the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports could continue indefinitely. The 10-year yield increased 2 basis points to 4.661%, while the 30-year yield rose over 2 basis points to 5.237%.

• The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.661%, while the 2-year yield increased 1 basis point to 4.152% and the 30-year yield climbed over 2 basis points to 5.237%
• Treasury Secretary Bessent warned of fresh measures for the 'economic isolation' of Iran that 'have never been seen,' while the Defense Secretary confirmed an indefinite blockade of Iranian ports
• The producer price index came in lower than expected, and ING strategists noted that contained inflation data eases higher rates pressure, though real yields will likely remain elevated

TerraPower, backed by Bill Gates, and South Korea's SK Innovation signed a preliminary agreement for SK to participate in TerraPower's small modular reactor (SMR) projects in the U.S. and globally. The deal was announced at a Seoul meeting attended by Gates, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, and South Korea's Industry Minister. This partnership positions SK Innovation to enter TerraPower's reactor development initiatives, including the Natrium project in Wyoming targeting 2031 commercial operation.

• TerraPower received a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission construction permit in March for its sodium-cooled Natrium reactor in Kemmerer, Wyoming, with commercial operation targeted for 2031
• South Korea's Doosan Enerbility won a contract to manufacture key reactor components including the vessel, support structures, and internal structures for the Wyoming project
• Growing electricity demand from AI infrastructure and data centers is driving global SMR interest, creating opportunities for Korean suppliers including SK, HD Hyundai, and others already invested in TerraPower

N. Chandrasekaran, chairman of Tata Sons, announced he will not seek reappointment after a six-month delay in approval, creating uncertainty over the conglomerate's major capital-intensive projects. The decision follows boardroom tensions with Tata Trusts over capital allocation to loss-making ventures including semiconductors, iPhone manufacturing, and Air India. His successor faces the challenge of balancing the trusts' desire for conservative spending with continuing strategic investments.

• Tata Sons' consolidated net profit fell 35% to $2.78 billion in FY2026 as losses from Air India, Tata Digital, and Tata Electronics mounted, while market cap of listed Tata companies dropped 12%
• Key projects at risk include India's first $11 billion semiconductor plant with Powerchip, iPhone production facilities that made Tata the largest Apple supplier in India, and the 2022 Air India acquisition
• Boardroom conflict centers on Tata Trusts (66% stakeholder) seeking conservative capital allocation as cash-generating TCS faces AI disruption, while Chandrasekaran pursued bold long-term bets in early investment cycles

At least four Asian refiners purchased U.S. crude oil this week as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to U.S.-Iran territorial disputes. Asian buyers are securing alternative supplies for late 2026 delivery, with strong refining margins amid tight fuel supplies driving demand for non-Gulf crude sources.

• South Korea's GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude at a premium of $13-14 per barrel above Dubai benchmark for November delivery, while Japan's Eneos purchased 2 million barrels of WTI at over $10 premium
• Asia sourced more than half its crude from the Middle East before the Iran conflict and imported a record 2.35 million barrels per day from the U.S. in July 2026, according to Kpler data
• Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined significantly this week with no immediate prospect of reopening, prompting Indian state refiners HPCL and MRPL to also issue crude purchase tenders

Oil prices rose early Friday after U.S. officials threatened 'economic isolation' of Iran and indicated a naval blockade of Iranian ports could continue indefinitely, raising concerns about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude gained 0.96% to $87.91 per barrel while WTI added 1.08% to $82.13, with both benchmarks on track for weekly gains of around 4%.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned of unprecedented measures for Iran's 'economic isolation' while Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed the blockade could be maintained indefinitely
• The UAE reported that Iran attacked two state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday evening
• Despite Thursday's 2% decline, both oil benchmarks remain up approximately 4% for the week following sustained rally amid ongoing tensions in the critical shipping corridor

China's domestic car sales fell 20% in the first half of the year, a decline equivalent to Japan's entire market, while exports surged 71% as automakers redirect excess capacity overseas. Chinese brands are capturing market share in Europe and other regions with competitive EVs, intensifying pressure on established Japanese and European automakers. The shift reflects China's broader economic imbalance between strong manufacturing output and weak domestic consumer demand.

• China's domestic car sales dropped by 2.3 million vehicles in H1 2026 (equivalent to Japan's total market), while exports jumped 71%; BYD offset a 35% domestic sales slump with 79% overseas growth
• Chinese brands now hold nearly 25% of Europe's EV market compared to under 5% for Japanese automakers, with forecasts predicting Chinese brands will capture 20% of Europe's overall vehicle market by 2030
• Industry analysts cite China's advantages in electrification, batteries, software, and rapid product development as more disruptive than Japan's historical edge in manufacturing efficiency and fuel economy

Russia's share of India's crude oil imports reached a record 50.83% in July 2026, totaling 2.47 million barrels per day, up 62.4% year-over-year. This surge occurred despite initial efforts by Indian refiners to reduce Russian purchases due to U.S. tariff concerns, as Middle East supply disruptions forced continued reliance on Russian barrels. The trend faces uncertainty with new U.S. Senate legislation proposing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers.

• Russian oil imports hit 2.47 million bpd in July, representing over half of India's total crude imports for the first time, though slightly down 4.8% from June's record of 2.6 million bpd
• Middle Eastern suppliers' share dropped to 33% in July from 45% a year earlier, with UAE overtaking Iraq as India's second-largest supplier after exiting OPEC in April
• U.S. Senate passed legislation imposing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers, creating uncertainty for India which relies on imports for over 90% of its crude oil needs

Singapore's Olam Group reported a nearly sixfold increase in first-half profit to S$1.91 billion, driven primarily by S$1.75 billion in one-off gains from selling a 44.58% stake in Olam Agri and disposing of its Mindsprint technology business. The company declared a special dividend, though operational profit from continuing operations fell by more than half to S$64.4 million.

• First-half profit surged to S$1.91 billion from S$323.8 million year-over-year, boosted by S$1.75 billion ($1.37 billion) in asset sale gains
• Operational profit from continuing operations dropped more than 50% to S$64.4 million, signaling weaker underlying business performance
• Flagship unit ofi expects continued market volatility from geopolitical developments and weather risks, targeting low- to mid-single-digit volume growth medium-term

China's leading chipmaker SMIC reported record second-quarter revenue exceeding $3 billion for the first time, driven by strong AI-related demand. The company raised prices for its wafer production capacity and expects continued robust orders in the second half of 2024, primarily from China-based customers seeking chips for AI applications.

• Second-quarter wafer shipments rose 14% to 2.9 million 8-inch-equivalent wafers while average selling prices increased 5.7% following customer negotiations
• China accounted for 90% of SMIC's second-quarter revenue, with the U.S. contributing 8%; the company is the only Chinese foundry capable of mass-producing 7-nanometre logic chips
• SMIC expects Q3 revenue growth of 2-4% and plans to adjust capacity and accelerate new production lines to address industry-wide supply constraints, with full-year capital amortization projected at $5 billion, up 30% year-over-year

The U.S. is planning unprecedented economic measures against Iran in conjunction with its ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The USS George Washington is being deployed to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has faced reports of poor conditions after over 250 days in the Middle East. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth maintains the blockade can continue indefinitely and disputes reports about conditions aboard the Lincoln.

• Treasury Secretary Bessent announced 'economic isolation like the world has never seen before' combined with the continued blockade preventing goods from entering or leaving Iranian ports
• The USS Abraham Lincoln has been deployed over 250 days beyond its expected May end date, with reports of moldy showers, broken toilets, food shortages, and crew burnout
• Rep. Mike Levin formally raised concerns about 'unacceptable' conditions aboard the Lincoln, including lack of fresh produce, extreme fatigue, and overwhelming workloads for sailors and marines

The White House released a report estimating the U.S. loses $19 billion to $26 billion annually in tariff revenue from goods, primarily from China, that are transshipped through third countries to avoid import duties. The report identifies approximately 40 countries with elevated transshipment risk and estimates the practice displaces around 450,000 U.S. jobs.

• The report estimates $34 billion to $303 billion worth of goods are transshipped annually, with a central estimate of $75 billion on which the lost tariff calculations are based
• Chinese imports to the U.S. fell to a 16-year low of $308.7 billion in 2025, while imports from Mexico and Vietnam have risen sharply, suggesting tariff evasion through transshipment
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection is deploying AI tools that analyze container markings, packaging patterns, and X-ray imaging to detect mismatches between declared and actual cargo