European markets to start the week broadly higher despite Iran-U.S. impasse
Key Points
- Trump scrapped plans to send Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for Iran talks, stating 'we have all the cards; they have none' while Iran confirmed no meetings are planned
- The Fed's Wednesday meeting could be Jerome Powell's last as chair before Kevin Warsh takes over in May, with the ECB and BOE both expected to hold rates steady Thursday but leave door open to future hikes
- U.K. FTSE seen flat, Germany's DAX up 0.3%, France's CAC up 0.2%, and Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.26% according to IG data
AI Summary
European Markets Set for Positive Open Amid Geopolitical Tensions
European stocks are projected to open higher on Monday despite stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations. Germany's DAX is expected to rise 0.3%, France's CAC up 0.2%, and Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.26%, while the U.K.'s index is seen opening unchanged, according to IG data.
Geopolitical Developments
U.S. President Donald Trump canceled plans Saturday to send envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for Iran talks, stating "Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work!" Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed no meetings between Tehran and Washington are currently scheduled. Despite these tensions, market sentiment remains buoyant.
Central Bank Focus
Investor attention turns to key central bank meetings this week. The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision Wednesday, potentially marking Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair before Kevin Warsh's expected takeover in May. The Justice Department opened an investigation into Powell on Friday, drawing criticism from Sen. Thom Tillis.
Both the European Central Bank and Bank of England will release monetary policy decisions Thursday. Economists anticipate both will maintain current benchmark interest rates but may signal potential hikes later in 2026 as war-related disruptions impact inflation and growth forecasts.
Other Developments
Markets are monitoring a security incident at the U.S. Capitol, where Cole Allen of Torrance, California, was apprehended Saturday after an armed incident.
Economic Data
Monday's calendar includes earnings from Deutsche Börse and German GfK consumer confidence data.
The overall market tone suggests investor resilience despite geopolitical uncertainties and upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Neutral | 85% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 95% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 85% |